Blue Jays Discussion: Joe Panik traded for the reliever we need.

[canucksfan]

 

[Puckstuff]

At this point Merryweather shouldn't even be relied on as a core bullpen guy, just can't rely on him to be healthy for any long stretch of time. Whatever we get from him is pure bonus even though the arm is fantastic.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Groshans may or may not be hurt. Got removed from yesterday's game after a strikeout. Not playing tonight

 

[dredeye]

Very hard to trust this manager even if the Jays go out and make big trades. We really need to move on from him next year.

I’m all for adding some more offence but is that what we need ? I think starter and bullpen are more pressing needs if we were to make some trades.

The problem we have is that if the Jays succeed he ain’t going anywhere

 

[Canada4Gold]

The problem we have is that if the Jays succeed he ain’t going anywhere

The Raptors fired Dwayne Casey after he won coach of the year so you never know, but yeah it's not something you would expect which is unfortunate. They Jays are winning games in spite of them and losing more games than they should because of him.

 

[phillipmike]

A’s Trevor Rosenthal to have season ending hip surgery. He signed a 1 year deal worth $11M late in the offseason and didn’t throw a pitch.

Oakland refuses to offer Hendriks and Semien a 18.9M qualifying offer.

So then spent; $11M on Rosenthal (0.0 WAR), $3.5M (-0.3 WAR), $2.25M on Romo (0.1 WAR), $2.25M on Moreland (0.0 WAR) and $2.25M on Petit (0.9 WAR).

You would think they want a mulligan. Perhaps Semien is back on a 1 year deal and you get a compensatory pick for Hendriks.

 

[Puckstuff]

A’s Trevor Rosenthal to have season ending hip surgery. He signed a 1 year deal worth $11M late in the offseason and didn’t throw a pitch.

Oakland refuses to offer Hendriks and Semien a 18.9M qualifying offer.

So then spent; $11M on Rosenthal (0.0 WAR), $3.5M (-0.3 WAR), $2.25M on Romo (0.1 WAR), $2.25M on Moreland (0.0 WAR) and $2.25M on Petit (0.9 WAR).

You would think they want a mulligan. Perhaps Semien is back on a 1 year deal and you get a compensatory pick for Hendriks.

New Blue Jays just passed the half way mark:

Springer 25 m - 0.4 FWAR
Semien - 18 m - 3.7 FWAR
Ray - 8 m - 1.1 FWAR
Yates - 5.5 M - 0.0 FWAR
Matz - 5.2 m - 0.9 FWAR
Chatwood - 3 m - 0.1 FWR
Phelps - 1.75 m - 0.4 FWAR

Total - 66.45 m - 6.6 FWAR


Salary paid to date (84 games) is just over 33.5 million.

1 WAR typically costs 9-10 million in free agency (according to some fangraphs article I read once). So it looks like the Jays have come out ahead so far on new acquisitions.

 

[Puckstuff]

The Cost of a Win in Free Agency in 2020

This was the article I read about how much a win costs in free agency so that would mean Semien has devliered 33 million dollars worth of value so far, insane. Sucks for the Athletics.

 

[TGB]

Stanley Cup done. Good. Now let's keep Jays games away from Rip-offNet 1.

 

[Lunatik]

Can someone explain the Def stat on Fangraphs? I assume that is them quantifying defense, and 0 is average, but how the hell could Vladdy be the worst on the team by a significant margin?

 

[MS]

New Blue Jays just passed the half way mark:

Springer 25 m - 0.4 FWAR
Semien - 18 m - 3.7 FWAR
Ray - 8 m - 1.1 FWAR
Yates - 5.5 M - 0.0 FWAR
Matz - 5.2 m - 0.9 FWAR
Chatwood - 3 m - 0.1 FWR
Phelps - 1.75 m - 0.4 FWAR

Total - 66.45 m - 6.6 FWAR


Salary paid to date (84 games) is just over 33.5 million.

1 WAR typically costs 9-10 million in free agency (according to some fangraphs article I read once). So it looks like the Jays have come out ahead so far on new acquisitions.

7.9 bWAR, which rates Semien and Ray higher and Matz and Chatwood lower. Personally I much prefer bWAR.

 

[lebdafor norris]

Can someone explain the Def stat on Fangraphs? I assume that is them quantifying defense, and 0 is average, but how the hell could Vladdy be the worst on the team by a significant margin?

Positional Adjustment | Sabermetrics Library

The reason why Vladdy has a negative rating is because 1B has historically been the easiest defensive position to play so def heavily penalized the defensive value of 1st basemen, hence, why 1B is typically expected to compensate for their lack of defensive value with a powerful bat. By the end of each season, you'd seldom find an everyday 1B in the league who has a positive Def score.

If you want to check how well Vladdy is doing defensively with respect to other 1B in the league, you can check his UZR/150 instead, which actually states that Vladdy has been a bit below avg defensively in 1st base which is honestly not bad considering this is a new position for him. On the other hand, Bo Bichette has clearly been below average at SS, Biggio has been a disaster at 3B (even the eye test agrees with this), Gurriel has been pretty decent in the outfield, while Grichuk has been abysmal in the CF but near gold glove caliber at the corner, of course the sample size for some of this is too small so you have to take that into consideration.

UZR | Sabermetrics Library
Toronto Blue Jays Leaderboards » 2021 » All Positions » Fielding Statistics | FanGraphs Baseball

 

[Lunatik]

Positional Adjustment | Sabermetrics Library

The reason why Vladdy has a negative rating is because 1B has historically been the easiest defensive position to play so def heavily penalized the defensive value of 1st basemen, hence, why 1B is typically expected to compensate for their lack of defensive value with a powerful bat. By the end of each season, you'd seldom find an everyday 1B in the league who has a positive Def score.

If you want to check how well Vladdy is doing defensively with respect to other 1B in the league, you can check his UZR/150 instead, which actually states that Vladdy has been a bit below avg defensively in 1st base which is honestly not bad considering this is a new position for him. On the other hand, Bo Bichette has clearly been below average at SS, Biggio has been a disaster at 3B (even the eye test agrees with this), Gurriel has been pretty decent in the outfield, while Grichuk has been abysmal in the CF but near gold glove caliber at the corner, of course the sample size for some of this is too small so you have to take that into consideration.

UZR | Sabermetrics Library
Toronto Blue Jays Leaderboards » 2021 » All Positions » Fielding Statistics | FanGraphs Baseball

thanks

 

[lebdafor norris]

The problem we have is that if the Jays succeed he ain’t going anywhere

I mean, the Royals somehow went to 2 World Series and even won 1 with Ned Yost on the helm, Atkins would just need to build one of the most dominant bullpen in the league in order to minimize the manager's flawed decision making, now where can the Jays find the 2015 version of Wade Davis, Greg Holland and Kelvin Herrera.

 

[Bluelines]

I mean, the Royals somehow went to 2 World Series and even won 1 with Ned Yost on the helm, Atkins would just need to build one of the most dominant bullpen in the league in order to minimize the manager's flawed decision making, now where can the Jays find the 2015 version of Wade Davis, Greg Holland and Kelvin Herrera.

Is there a website that shows blown leads after the 5th inning? I feel Charlie is a little to patient with his pitchers, when they are struggling I find he tends to leave them in there for too long. I get the whole confidence thing, where if the pitcher thinks he is going to get pulled he might get the yips but there were games I watched this year where the relief pitcher had no clue how to get an out and Charlie just let the guy struggle until the other team took the lead. Maybe his managerial decisions are not as bad as I think it is. If you have a multi run lead after the 5th , you should be able to put the win in your back pocket.

10 Blown Saves
SV% 63% - League average 60%
Wlst - 6
Llst - 12 (good a coming back)

 

[Bluelines]

Love this guys movement on his change-up.... filthy...

 

[Vector]

7.9 bWAR, which rates Semien and Ray higher and Matz and Chatwood lower. Personally I much prefer bWAR.

This is where WAR falls apart for me a bit. Most advanced stats in any sport do, actually. I like fWAR for batters and bWAR better for pitchers. WPA (Win Probability Added) seems to hold up well for relievers. I don't hold on to these beliefs strongly, though. I generally just use Fangraphs because I think their website and articles are excellent while I hate baseball-reference.

 

[Cor]

Cruz + Berrios plz

 

[theaub]

Are we allowed 2 DH's now?

Wish we could get Donaldson back but wtf is that contract.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Montoyo managing Donaldson would be entertaining. Isn't gonna happen though lol.

 

[Discoverer]

Are we allowed 2 DH's now?

Wish we could get Donaldson back but wtf is that contract.

I like how they're using the DH spot now and don't think adding another 1B/DH is a great idea. But if that 1B/DH is Nelson Cruz? Uh... yes please.

 

[Bluelines]

I like how they're using the DH spot now and don't think adding another 1B/DH is a great idea. But if that 1B/DH is Nelson Cruz? Uh... yes please.

.304 BA / .939 OPS Bats Right... kinda fits the need for a righty power hitter...

Nelson welcome to the Jays, your batting ... umm ... 7th ...? Jebus a .300 hitter batting 7th... that is disgusting... (in a good way for us)..

 

[MS]

This is where WAR falls apart for me a bit. Most advanced stats in any sport do, actually. I like fWAR for batters and bWAR better for pitchers. WPA (Win Probability Added) seems to hold up well for relievers. I don't hold on to these beliefs strongly, though. I generally just use Fangraphs because I think their website and articles are excellent while I hate baseball-reference.

I don't have a strong preference for batters but definitely like bWAR for pitchers.

I'm the reverse - I like the baseball-reference website and don't like fangraphs.

 

[Discoverer]

.304 BA / .939 OPS Bats Right... kinda fits the need for a righty power hitter...

Nelson welcome to the Jays, your batting ... umm ... 7th ...? Jebus a .300 hitter batting 7th... that is disgusting... (in a good way for us)..

A lineup addition of that calibre pretty much forces a lineup shakeup because I don't think you can justify hitting him that low. He's in his 3rd straight season of better than 150 wRC+ and hasn't been below 130 since 2013.

1. Springer
2. Vlad
3. Cruz
4. Semien
5. Bo
6. Teoscar
7. Biggio
8. Gurriel
9. Jansen/McGuire

There are a ton of options there, but it would be ridiculous no matter how you stack it.

 

[Tony Romo]

Cruz + Berrios plz

agreed!!