Signing(s): JJ Watt to the Cardinals (2yrs, $31M)

[StreetHawk]

Every guy is different but for a guy like Watt he has made huge money in his career so I thought he would settle for 2 years in the $15 to $20 million range. And sign with a true contender. Silly me. But with Arizona he's joining a team that will likely be losing Peterson and probably Reddick on the defense so how much better will they be than last year?

That range based on his open market value is a 30-50% discount. Brady signed for $25 mill. That would be equal to Brady costing between $37-50 mill in market value.

 

[DueDiligence]

That range based on his open market value is a 30-50% discount. Brady signed for $25 mill. That would be equal to Brady costing between $37-50 mill in market value.

Yes, but I guess I believed this:

“I don’t think it’s any secret that I don’t have 10 years left in this league,” Watt told ESPN in November. “I’m not looking to rebuild. I’m looking to go after a championship, and that’s what I want to do

 

[StreetHawk]

Yes, but I guess I believed this:

“I don’t think it’s any secret that I don’t have 10 years left in this league,” Watt told ESPN in November. “I’m not looking to rebuild. I’m looking to go after a championship, and that’s what I want to do

Maybe the other offers were too low. If another team is offering $20 mill over 2 years with only $12-13 mill in guaranteed money.

did Ware take a massive discount to play with Denver after Dallas cut him?

 

[EpochLink]

They are shedding money now to free agents because Kyler Murray is still on his rookie contract, Cardinals aren’t gonna pay him yet so why not stack the box?

Cardinals are going for it.

 

[jcs0218]

Every guy is different but for a guy like Watt he has made huge money in his career so I thought he would settle for 2 years in the $15 to $20 million range. And sign with a true contender. Silly me. But with Arizona he's joining a team that will likely be losing Peterson and probably Reddick on the defense so how much better will they be than last year?

I thought he might settle for a deep discount too, in order to chase a Super Bowl.

He has already made over $100 million salary in his NFL career alone, without even counting the money he has made through endorsements.

That is more money than he will ever spend in his lifetime.

He signed for $31 million with the Cardinals, bringing his career earnings to $131 million. But he could have signed for $15-$20 million over 2 years to chase a Super Bowl, and still would have had more money than he will ever spend.

 

[jcs0218]

Sure, but even picking one of the teams you named still gives you a not very good chance of winning the Super Bowl.

Picking one of the elite teams doesn't guarantee you a Super Bowl.

But I think a team like Kansas City probably has about 25%-30% chance of winning the Super Bowl next year.

That is substantially higher than the Cardinals.

 

[StreetHawk]

Picking one of the elite teams doesn't guarantee you a Super Bowl.

But I think a team like Kansas City probably has about 25%-30% chance of winning the Super Bowl next year.

That is substantially higher than the Cardinals.

Teams should also pay for the value that they will be receiving from Watt. Gronk, AB, Fournette came cheap to TB because one was retired for a year, the other didn’t play last season due to off the field issues and one was a 4/5 OA picked that was cut on his rookie contract. Watt isn’t like these guys.

Was their offer really what Watt deserves to be making? How much of a discount did they expect him to take?

 

[Unholy Diver]

I thought he might settle for a deep discount too, in order to chase a Super Bowl.

He has already made over $100 million salary in his NFL career alone, without even counting the money he has made through endorsements.

That is more money than he will ever spend in his lifetime.

He signed for $31 million with the Cardinals, bringing his career earnings to $131 million. But he could have signed for $15-$20 million over 2 years to chase a Super Bowl, and still would have had more money than he will ever spend.

The hundreds of broke former athletes would show otherwise, this is possibly his last chance to make big money.

Broke - ESPN Films: 30 for 30

 

[jcs0218]

Teams should also pay for the value that they will be receiving from Watt. Gronk, AB, Fournette came cheap to TB because one was retired for a year, the other didn’t play last season due to off the field issues and one was a 4/5 OA picked that was cut on his rookie contract. Watt isn’t like these guys.

Was their offer really what Watt deserves to be making? How much of a discount did they expect him to take?

Teams can offer Watt as much money as he wants, and he can take as much money as he wants.

All the power to the team and the player.

My point was that taking a bargain contract to play for a true contender is something I thought a player would do, especially when that player has already made over $100 million in his career.

Every player has their priorities, and gives weight to those priorities.

"Getting paid what I am worth" appears to be a bigger priority to Watt than "giving myself the best chance to win a Super Bowl".

 

[jcs0218]

The hundreds of broke former athletes would show otherwise, this is possibly his last chance to make big money.

Broke - ESPN Films: 30 for 30

If you get paid over $100 million, or even $25 million, in your career and you end up broke, then that is on the individual athlete.

It isn't because they were underpaid or didn't make enough money during their careers. If you can't live on $25-$100 million lifetime earnings, then there is an issue that not even an additional $15-$30 million on your next contract is going to fix.

Recklessly buying expensive items and "toys" that they don't need or have no intention on using enough to justify their purchase? That is on the athlete. Everyone, whether they are making $50,000 per year or $10,000,000 per year, needs to have a budget and live within their means. A failure to do so is nobody's fault by your own. Whether it is a regular person considering a $3,000 TV purchase on a credit card or an athlete considering a $15,000,000 helicopter purchase, the questions for both should be "Do I really need this? Will I be able to pay this purchase off?"

Getting involved with too many spousal support or child support payments? That is on the athlete. One time may be a mistake. Maybe you got drunk one night and had sex without protecting yourself. Maybe the girl lied to you when she told you she was taking birth control. But some of these athletes have 8 children with 6 different women. Anything more than once is a sign of stupidity and a sign that you can't learn from mistakes.

Forming a costly drug addiction? That is on the athlete. Drug addictions won't drain your money supply immediately. They do it gradually over time. Not getting help for a long-lasting addiction is on the individual.

Finding yourself a victim of fraud, such as investing in bogus investments or investing with shady people? This reason for going broke and entering bankruptcy is the only one that can pose any challenge, because a skilled fraudster can be successful even when someone does due diligence. However, from reading stories about victims of financial fraud, it is usually because they didn't do their due diligence. There are some basic steps one can do to significantly decrease their chances of getting swindled, and those basic steps aren't taken in many of these cases.

 

[Street Hawk]

Teams can offer Watt as much money as he wants, and he can take as much money as he wants.

All the power to the team and the player.

My point was that taking a bargain contract to play for a true contender is something I thought a player would do, especially when that player has already made over $100 million in his career.

Every player has their priorities, and gives weight to those priorities.

"Getting paid what I am worth" appears to be a bigger priority to Watt than "giving myself the best chance to win a Super Bowl".

It depends really on what your definition of a Bargain Contract is? What % were they offering compared to his market value. Only so much of a bargain you can ask of a player. Maybe other teams couldn't fit Watt into their cap. I have not see any reports from the other thread regarding cut/released players from what people consider true contenders in order to create cap space. Still some time left to do that.

Any team is an injury to their QB away from not being a playoff team.

 

[Troy McClure]

It depends really on what your definition of a Bargain Contract is? What % were they offering compared to his market value. Only so much of a bargain you can ask of a player. Maybe other teams couldn't fit Watt into their cap. I have not see any reports from the other thread regarding cut/released players from what people consider true contenders in order to create cap space. Still some time left to do that.

Any team is an injury to their QB away from not being a playoff team.

Getting to a Super Bowl is super hard. Winning one is harder. Sure, people can rattle off the names of a few teams that were better than Arizona this season, but just how much better of a chance of winning a Super Bowl are we talking about if Watt joined one of those teams? 5%? 10%? People throw out team names like the Packers, Bills, Chiefs, Rams, and Tampa. The Packers haven't been to a Super Bowl in 11 years now despite being very good many of those seasons. The Bills... we know. KC looks like they have a bright future still, but they've also played a lot of football the last couple of seasons and need to show they can get their o-line healthy. The Rams don't seem to have any cap room for a guy like Watt. Tampa is an interesting one because I don't know that I'd bet on a bunch of 30+ guys remaining completely healthy again. Every team has questions.

 

[StreetHawk]

Getting to a Super Bowl is super hard. Winning one is harder. Sure, people can rattle off the names of a few teams that were better than Arizona this season, but just how much better of a chance of winning a Super Bowl are we talking about if Watt joined one of those teams? 5%? 10%? People throw out team names like the Packers, Bills, Chiefs, Rams, and Tampa. The Packers haven't been to a Super Bowl in 11 years now despite being very good many of those seasons. The Bills... we know. KC looks like they have a bright future still, but they've also played a lot of football the last couple of seasons and need to show they can get their o-line healthy. The Rams don't seem to have any cap room for a guy like Watt. Tampa is an interesting one because I don't know that I'd bet on a bunch of 30+ guys remaining completely healthy again. Every team has questions.

I agree with these points. The only main challenge in Watt signing with AZ is how tough a division they are in. Very possible for them to be 4th in their division. Most other options, those teams are either 1st or 2nd in their division. Every other team in the NFC West is legitimately a playoff contender.

 

[Quid Pro Clowe]

I hate the Texans.

 

[Voight]

He obviously values money more than winning.

That isn't to say the Cardinals are a bad team. But they aren't Super Bowl contenders right now. And who knows how many years Watt has left?

To spend 2 years of his career with them, when he is already on the decline, shows that a Super Bowl isn't too important to him.

Its a good point but nobody thought Baltimore would win the Super Bowl 10 years ago until Flacco transformed into Tom Brady for a month. Likewise with the Eagles a couple years ago. (Not that those teams were going to be basement dwellers; but IIRC neither were top picks).

Anyhow I also figured he'd join an absolute contender like Green Bay or Tampa.

 

[jcs0218]

Its a good point but nobody thought Baltimore would win the Super Bowl 10 years ago until Flacco transformed into Tom Brady for a month. Likewise with the Eagles a couple years ago. (Not that those teams were going to be basement dwellers; but IIRC neither were top picks).

Anyhow I also figured he'd join an absolute contender like Green Bay or Tampa.

The Ravens had made the AFC championship game the season before they won the Super Bowl. And had posted a 12-4 season the year before that.

Entering their 2012 Super Bowl season, the Ravens were probably ranked as a top 3 or top 5 team in the NFL.

The Ravens seasons before and including their Super Bowl season:

2008 = 11-5, 2nd in division, lost AFC Championship game
2009 = 9-7, 2nd in division, lost AFC Divisional playoffs
2010 = 12-4, 2nd in division, lost AFC Divisional playoffs
2011 = 12-4, 1st in division, lost AFC Championship game
2012 = 10-6, 1st in division, won Super Bowl

Combined playoff record during those seasons was 5-4.

So they were clearly a more consistent and proven contender than Arizona is now.

Arizona in the last 5 years, for comparison, have gone:

2016 = 7-8-1
2017 = 8-8
2018 = 3-13
2019 = 5-11
2020 = 8-8

They aren't in the same situation as Baltimore was in a decade ago, when Baltimore had been a consistent playoff contender and double-digit win team for multiple seasons.

The Buffalo Bills, Las Angeles Rams, or Tennessee Titans would be teams more comparable to the Ravens of 10 years ago. The Bills, Rams, and Titans have been playoff-calibre and double-digit win calibre for 2-3 seasons now, and need that one guy to put them over the hump.

 

[jcs0218]

Delete.