Prospect Info: Jets Top Prospects Poll: #4 Prospect
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Gil Fisher
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Mud Turtle
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JetsFan815
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truck
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Missed the last few votes. My thoughts...
Vesalainen and Heinola should have been a clear 1, 2. They are elite prospects.
I have no clue how Niku wasn't top 3.
Samberg might be the most overrated prospect we've ever had. I've been a big fan since before the draft, but talk of him as a sure thing top 4 D man is ridiculous.
Niku is closer to NHL ready and has every bit of the same upside. Scoring isn't everything, but Samberg has never been better than 3rd on his team. I expect that to change this year. Regardless, he's not a sure thing.
Vesalainen and Heinola should have been a clear 1, 2. They are elite prospects.
I have no clue how Niku wasn't top 3.
Samberg might be the most overrated prospect we've ever had. I've been a big fan since before the draft, but talk of him as a sure thing top 4 D man is ridiculous.
Niku is closer to NHL ready and has every bit of the same upside. Scoring isn't everything, but Samberg has never been better than 3rd on his team. I expect that to change this year. Regardless, he's not a sure thing.
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For me, Samberg is as close to a sure thing in a top 4 shut down d role as the Jets have, imo. It’s a role he has excelled at UMD and WJC for team USA. His size, skating, and passing will result in a key role in a couple of years.
I would put Niku in the ‘potential disappointment’ category. His puck skills are plentiful, but I’m sure PoMo will want to pair him with a larger, defensive-minded, physical dman. Like Samberg. So where Samberg brings a skill set we don’t have in abundance, Niku is not much different than Morrissey, Heinola or even Pionk.
Samberg will fill a missing role, Niku could be moved when Heinola begins contributing in a top 4 role.
truck
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There is still a very legit chance that Samberg will never play for the Jets or become an NHL regular.
As I said before, he's been good in lower leagues, but he's never been the top D man on his team - let alone the best D man in North America's second best league.
To say there’s a legit chance Samberg won’t play in the league, well... i’ll say there’s zero chance that happens. He would likely be in a top 4 role this year if he came out of college with our current d, playing ahead of Niku, imo.
In terms of being a team’s Top D, when the game is at its most critical, Samberg is on the ice. At UMD and WJC. Especially protecting a lead. Late in an important game his minutes increase. He was arguably his team’s most important dman at times. Ask Scott Sandlin. He doesn’t score at a high rate but his value is still very high.
I think there is a better chance Niku has less of an impact on Jets than Samberg. Who would the coach want playing in an important juncture of the game, Samberg has been that guy.
Let’s check in in two years.
I think you underestimate Samberg. His scoring rate is actually quite good for his role and league. But his game is all about shutting down opponents and moving the puck the other way. I think we've put a bit too much emphasis on scoring / offense. Niku is very good at that, but he really does struggle defensively in his own zone.
He was a top D on two US U-20 teams and is clearly the top shutdown D on his NCAA team, playing the toughest matchups and always in the end of close games.
McDonagh was never a leading D scorer on his college team. Neither was Pesce. Nor Manson.
From Mitch Brown's article in the Athletic...
"Overall, Samberg is one of college hockey’s best prospects. While his flaws may be easy to point out, they are also fixable areas that will further enhance Samberg’s already high potential.
Of course, Samberg’s calling card will be his defensive game; his defensive efficiency. He isn’t just a strong, fast, physical defender. He’s so much more. He flips the script on attackers, controlling their movements and putting them in uncomfortable situations. He’s explosive, yet precise. Because of these traits, Samberg has the tools to be a modern minute-munching defenceman in the NHL."
truck
Registered User
Offense isn't just about the points, it is also about hockey sense. Elite prospects tend to out-produce their contemporaries in junior, because they are several steps ahead in everything they do. The scoring doesn't always translate to the pros, but it is a decent barometer for how they compare to their peers.
There will always be some examples of players who don't score much and make the bigs, but this is an exception more than a rule.
I do like Samberg. I've been a fan since before he was drafted. I like his game. I like his upside, but his offensive game hasn't progressed as much as one would hope.
Elite college scoring doesn't guarantee a player will be effective in the NHL. Elite college defending doesn't either. That's all I'm saying.
truck
Registered User
Its splitting hairs, but Pesce led his team in per game D scoring at 19. Regardless, those players are closer to the exception than the rule.
Top pair in the Juniors is nice too. Heinola did that at 17.
I like Samberg, but he's being talked about like money in the bank and he's nowhere near the NHL at this point.
I think there's a very good chance he plays in the NHL this season, after his NCAA season.
