Prospect Info: Jets Top 25 Prospects: Final Rankings

[Mortimer Snerd]

Buff is still the Jets #1D man.

No doubt but there are a couple of caveats. 1) We have seen that he is best with a little less TOI. Second pair + special teams has suited him well. 2) How long will he be able to play at a #2 D man level? He is 34 going into this season. He seemed a tad slower at times last year. Was that the effects of his injury time off, or of age? Time will tell but time is not on his (our) side.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

While there might be more to learn, the defenseman has been immersed in learning all of that for all the years they have been a dmen. That training didn't start at the pro level.

Just like a forward all they are adapting to is a higher level of competetion. It's not like they are being asked to reinvent the wheel as a pro. They are playing their game at a higher level, no different then a winger. So to me it makes perfect sense that the development and prime arcs are the same.

There are also less defensive slots available then forward slots which is another reason you may not see dmen promoted as quickly as forwards.

Also - and I think this is a big thing that is often overlooked - it isn't rocket surgery. It is just hockey. The total amount to be learned is not that great. The so called "smart" players are not geniuses who have managed to absorb a lot more knowledge of the game. They are players who can think just a tiny increment quicker. They are players who can see the play evolving and anticipate where it is going next. That ability is innate. It develops with experience but these players have a wealth of experience by the time they are drafted. They need to adapt it at each level as the competition gets better.

 

[TS Quint]

While there might be more to learn, the defenseman has been immersed in learning all of that for all the years they have been a dmen. That training didn't start at the pro level.

Just like a forward all they are adapting to is a higher level of competetion. It's not like they are being asked to reinvent the wheel as a pro. They are playing their game at a higher level, no different then a winger. So to me it makes perfect sense that the development and prime arcs are the same.

There are also less defensive slots available then forward slots which is another reason you may not see dmen promoted as quickly as forwards.

You’re just wrong. Centers and defensemen take longer to become proficient at their positions. There is more to those positions. There’s a reason why many centers start their careers on the wing and develop their center skills in the gym and practice. Defensemen are the same you have to learn more difficult skills at the highest level. It’s not the same as learning easier skills and systems. To say it’s the same is just nonsense.

It’s like saying the kid who gets straight A’s in advanced classes didn’t have to work harder than the kid who gets A’s in a general class.

 

[surixon]

You’re just wrong. Centers and defensemen take longer to become proficient at their positions. There is more to those positions. There’s a reason why many centers start their careers on the wing and develop their center skills in the gym and practice. Defensemen are the same you have to learn more difficult skills at the highest level. It’s not the same as learning easier skills and systems. To say it’s the same is just nonsense.

It’s like saying the kid who gets straight A’s in advanced classes didn’t have to work harder than the kid who gets A’s in a general class.

I don't agree. Kids play very similiar systems in college and junior as they do in the NHL.

What new skills are they learning that they didn't learn before getting to the NHL?

 

[TS Quint]

I don't agree. Kids play very similiar systems in college and junior as they do in the NHL.

What new skills are they learning that they didn't learn before getting to the NHL?

From what I have heard players say the #1 thing is the NHL is far more structured than even the AHL to begin with. After that quite obviously the quality of competitors should be more than obvious. As a player going from sub NHL teams you can get away with a lot more as you are most likely on end of the top players on the team. You can get away with a few top skills and be productive. In the NHL if you have holes in your game you will be exposed pretty damn fast. When you are on the Wing and your short comings get exposed it’s not so bad when you have a center and two defenseman behind you to keep the puck from going into the net. If you’re a defenseman you don’t get that luxury. You can’t have those holes, you have to develop them.

 

[KingBogo]

Do you honestly think that is likely?

I wouldn't bet my house on it . More likely we will be a strong LHD team and whoever can adapt the best on the right right gets shifted over. Pionk turning out to be the player he looked to be coming out of college would go a long way to help things along.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I wouldn't bet my house on it . More likely we will be a strong LHD team and whoever can adapt the best on the right right gets shifted over. Pionk turning out to be the player he looked to be coming out of college would go a long way to help things along.

Left or right neither Niku nor Pionk look like top pair D men. Unless they suddenly find another level they look like having 2nd pair ceilings.

No other prospect in our system projects as a top pair D man either. Our prospect pool looks pretty good, with more depth than it has ever had on D before. But it lacks top end talent.

 

[KingBogo]

Left or right neither Niku nor Pionk look like top pair D men. Unless they suddenly find another level they look like having 2nd pair ceilings.

No other prospect in our system projects as a top pair D man either. Our prospect pool looks pretty good, with more depth than it has ever had on D before. But it lacks top end talent.

Actually I think Heinola ends up being a top end talent. A puck mover with great vision is the newest generation of elite defenseman. Knocks are a lack of size and strength, which is old school thinking. Like Niku he has lots of experience on his off side. This does seem to be a thing for the Finns.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Actually I think Heinola ends up being a top end talent. A puck mover with great vision is the newest generation of elite defenseman. Knocks are a lack of size and strength, which is old school thinking. Like Niku he has lots of experience on his off side. This does seem to be a thing for the Finns.

I forgot about Heinola. He very well might have top pair talent but it is still a little too soon to say. But he is a lefty.

Playing off-side seems to be a Euro thing, not just Finns. I don't think it is as prevalent for D men as it is for wingers. I don't think it is ideal in any case but especially for a D man whose ability to play defence is the question mark about his potential.

 

[surixon]

Buff is still the Jets #1D man.

Morrissey has had a better GAR in each of the last three years and is more impacful all around then Buff so id say JoMo is pretty clearly our best dmen. Haveing said that Moe hasn't caught on yet and still used Buff the most on the ice.

 

[truck]

Morrissey has had a better GAR in each of the last three years and is more impacful all around then Buff so id say JoMo is pretty clearly our best dmen. Haveing said that Moe hasn't caught on yet and still used Buff the most on the ice.

Yep. Buff still gets all the minutes.

 

[voyageur]

Too bad Sammy is a left shot because I would love to see him paired with JMo.
We have LOTS of O in our D men...Morrissey, Buff, Pionk can all put up the points. What we need is a D like Samberg. He doesn't care too much aboutpoints. I haven't watched him enough to tell if he has a mean streak but Buff has one as does Trouba...Morrisssey and, from what I can tell, Pionk also have a bit of one. I like to see it in a D man.
Sammy is a big boy that is only going to get biggger for the next little while. If our D corps in two years (2021-2022 season) were the following, I wouldn't complain...

JMo -Niku
Samberg -Buff
Heinola- Kovacevic

I think it looks more like Morrissey-Samberg (shutdown), Stanley-Buff, Heinola-Pionk/Niku (one going to the expansion draft) , with the latter pairing maybe moving past the 2nd pairing as Buff slows down. Kovacevic and Poolman will still be here in 2 years, and if either of them pan out, maybe Buff doesn't come back.

 

[10Ducky10]

I think it looks more like Morrissey-Samberg (shutdown), Stanley-Buff, Heinola-Pionk/Niku (one going to the expansion draft) , with the latter pairing maybe moving past the 2nd pairing as Buff slows down. Kovacevic and Poolman will still be here in 2 years, and if either of them pan out, maybe Buff doesn't come back.

Does Samberg play the right side?

 

[ps241]

Does Samberg play the right side?

Not that I have seen.

 

[voyageur]

Not that I have seen.

Wasn't he playing the right side for the WJHC last year?

 

[Whileee]

Top 4 pure shutdown D are pretty rare.

He has a shot of getting there, but calling it a reasonable projection at this point is a bit much. It's still the best case, upside scenario.

His point production level has been underrated and compares well to several very good top 4 D that have come from strong college programs.

 

[garret9]

You might need to give the spread sheets a break if you don’t think there is more to playing defense than wing.

And what you call absence of evidence you also call bias in your previous post. And then you go into there being only 2 defense spots vs 3 forward spots as a reason for defense entering the NHL later. There are also less defensemen to choose from.

FYI, I posted this in the Niku/Pionk thread because this conversation was going on, but it appears that coaches actually agree with me:

So not only do analytics suggest that a defenders prime is no different than a forwards and they develop at the same rate, it appears that hockey coaches believe the same thing when looking at how they actually choose to use players:

Eye test of those at the highest level and numbers match... so I guess we can call that case closed.

Check and mate.

 

[garret9]

DOUBLE POST

 

[Gil Fisher]

Wasn't he playing the right side for the WJHC last year?

Yea, my recollection was that he moved around a bit, as did Anderson I believe.

 

[Jets4Life]

Bumping for comparison purposes.

 

[Jets4Life]

Are we doing another top 20 (or 25) NHL Jets prospects rankings. I don't recall one being done in the summer of COVID (2020)?

 

[snowkiddin]

Are we doing another top 20 (or 25) NHL Jets prospects rankings. I don't recall one being done in the summer of COVID (2020)?

I would love for someone to organize another top 25 prospects series of polls. I always enjoy reading them and seeing the results.