Speculation: Jets - Offer Sheet

[BatVader]

OS’s are, for the most part, a desperation play that have almost no chance to succeed, but every once in a blue moon there falls into line the perfect storm of circumstances that make a successful OS very possible.
IMO, this is what we now have with Tampa and Cirelli.
They can’t afford to keep him without moving out cap, but the players they’d need/want to move are regressing, over paid, and not in demand or need by other teams, and they have multiple good young players they need to sign with this severely limited cap room.
They would have a very hard time conjuring the magic needed to match an offer sheet, considering they would only have 7 days to maneuver all the pieces around to make the necessary cap room to match, and once there’s blood in the water the other teams might target other Tampa players.
An OS of 6m x 7yrs, a compensation of a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, would very likely succeed.
It’s an overpayment for Cirelli’s current level, but by the end of the contract it would be considered cheap

 

[Jets 31]

While a offer sheet might work i always have this feeling we could lose someone like Laine, Connor , Ehlers , Helly or Scheifele like that and i would be PISSED if that happened. Spending all that time developing and just when they are a star you lose them for draft picks and have to start all over.

 

[82Ninety42011]

Covid can guarantee no offer sheets will be happening anytime soon.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think for a specific player in a specific situation they will.

The biggest target for me this summer would be Cernak on Tampa. Good rfa dmen but would likly be down the priority list for Tampa. Sign him to a two year 4.2 million AAV offer sheet and Tampa likely cant match. In the end it costs us a second.

TBL have only 3 Dmen under contract for next year + 2 RFA's, including Cernak. He is the only RHS in that 5 man list. They have only 1 probably NHL ready D man in their system, Foote. He would give them 6 Dmen, 2 RHS. They are a lot more likely to hang on the Cernak than they are to hang on to Cirelli. They have lots of C's.

Moot anyway, IMO. I don't think there is a circumstance you can imagine that would get Chevy to do an OS. JMO

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I’d target Cirelli with a 6M x 7yr OS.
Would cost us a 1st + 2nd + 3rd, but for a 22yr old C who just put up 44 pts in 68 games in his 2nd full time NHL season, I think it would be worth it.

If we make the PO, we don't have that 3rd. Couldn't do that if we wanted to - unless we lose to Flames.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Most are but there are some from FA and trades.

But most of those who come from FA and trades were drafted, once upon a time.

The number of undrafted players who make it to the NHL is so small that it might as well be considered '0'. The number who become core parts of their teams is even smaller. The draft is the source of virtually all NHL players.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

While not much from past experience and showing from Chipman & Chevy would point to an "offer sheet" proposal being likely, I believe this point of an approximate 4 year window potential for Jets org to win it all could tip their hands/ hats into this action, in the right type player from a safe type team ( not in their division or conference).
To this end, I am on the fence with potential of Jets going after RFA center Anthony Cirelli in TBL.
I think he fits the bill for a type of player they should go after. What is the ball-range cost though?
If he could be attained for under $5 mil per season in a mid to longer term deal. And he actually showed chemistry in a 2-C role with wingers and showed progression from his previous couple seasons, he could be a worthy recipient of said "o.s." I think Jets would likely need to move out Perreault's contract and have definitive knowing B Little's career over and he retires,,or he becomes expendable?

If it could ever happen, it will be this year because of all the factors you name. If it doesn't happen this year, I think we can safely say never - or until Chevy and/or Chipman are gone, whichever comes first.

Edit: If we lose our '21 3rd that ideal time to do an OS goes away. Which kills my 'now or never' scenario.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

OS’s are, for the most part, a desperation play that have almost no chance to succeed, but every once in a blue moon there falls into line the perfect storm of circumstances that make a successful OS very possible.
IMO, this is what we now have with Tampa and Cirelli.
They can’t afford to keep him without moving out cap, but the players they’d need/want to move are regressing, over paid, and not in demand or need by other teams, and they have multiple good young players they need to sign with this severely limited cap room.
They would have a very hard time conjuring the magic needed to match an offer sheet, considering they would only have 7 days to maneuver all the pieces around to make the necessary cap room to match, and once there’s blood in the water the other teams might target other Tampa players.
An OS of 6m x 7yrs, a compensation of a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, would very likely succeed.
It’s an overpayment for Cirelli’s current level, but by the end of the contract it would be considered cheap

I agree with your assessment, except that I think we beat Flames so can't make that offer for Cirelli. And if you add a little ???, you get to 2 1st, 2nd, 3rd. We still can't do it. We would need to go all the way to 4 1sts. I would not pay the price to get Cirelli that way. We could offer TBL our next 4 1sts and at least not need to pay Cirelli so much. Never mind that Chevy wouldn't do it.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

OS’s are, for the most part, a desperation play that have almost no chance to succeed, but every once in a blue moon there falls into line the perfect storm of circumstances that make a successful OS very possible.
IMO, this is what we now have with Tampa and Cirelli.
They can’t afford to keep him without moving out cap, but the players they’d need/want to move are regressing, over paid, and not in demand or need by other teams, and they have multiple good young players they need to sign with this severely limited cap room.
They would have a very hard time conjuring the magic needed to match an offer sheet, considering they would only have 7 days to maneuver all the pieces around to make the necessary cap room to match, and once there’s blood in the water the other teams might target other Tampa players.
An OS of 6m x 7yrs, a compensation of a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, would very likely succeed.
It’s an overpayment for Cirelli’s current level, but by the end of the contract it would be considered cheap

Further to this - The TBL situation makes an OS from some other team likely more than it makes one from Chevy likely. That means we need to get in first and acquire Cirelli by trade before some other team gets him via OS.

 

[Whileee]

I think people approach offersheets wrong. It wont work on the star player but I think targeting 2nd tier players would have the desired effect. The only offersheet that has worked the last decade or so was the one for Penner. A good secondary piece but no star. If you can find a team that is cap strapped with some elite and secondary talent to sign, you may have some luck grabbing the secondary talent.

Penner ended up costing a 1st, 2nd and 3rd round pick.

 

[Buffdog]

I wonder if we could get our 3rd back in the 2021 draft (if we beat the flames) by offering a 2022 3rd and 5th

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Penner ended up costing a 1st, 2nd and 3rd round pick.

Then Oil got 4 pretty good years out of him and traded him for two 1sts + 3rd.

 

[BatVader]

Further to this - The TBL situation makes an OS from some other team likely more than it makes one from Chevy likely. That means we need to get in first and acquire Cirelli by trade before some other team gets him via OS.

I’m ok with either option, trade or OS. I just want Chevy to make the move to give this team the best chance to succeed.
Personally, I’d prefer if we could acquire him by trade, as we could then negotiate a contract that would likely be less than what we’d have to offer if we submitted an OS.