Jets - General Rumour, Trade, Free Agent and Waiver Speculation 14-15 Part III

[Huffer]

Markov's trade value is not higher, not by a longshot. At best if you move Markov say at the deadline next year you probably only get picks and probably not a 1st at that.

Buff is much younger and his current cap is controlled for a few years. He is easily worth a mid to late 1st and top prospect.

The chances of getting a D/F like him is remote if not impossible. There isn't a lot of guys in the league that can do what he does

Agreed.

 

[CHaracter79]

There you go, that's valid.

How about also:

1 year - Kane - 14, Max - 0
2 years - Kane - 19, Max - 3
3 years - Kane - 30, Max - 3
4 years - Kane - 17*, Max - 14 (* lockout season for Kane, not Max)
5 years - Kane - 19, Max - 33
6 years- Kane - ?, Max - 15* (*lockout season for Max, not Kane)
7 years - Kane - ?, Max - 39

So if Kane can get 15 goals in 44 games, he'll have outproduced Max in 5 of their 1st 6 years after being drafted. But yeah, picking year 5 is really the best way to judge. Has to be a reason for year 5 to be the best year to evaluate, I wonder what it is?

Thanks for steering this more towards Kane being more comparable to Max as opposed to Gallagher and a small plus though.

you realize when he scored 14 in year 4 he did it in 37 games. pro rated he out scored kane that year.

If you look at it that way... Galchnyuk out produced Kane the first 2 years... does that mean he is worth more then Kane?

 

[CaptainChef]

I thought people didn't just want to be a draft and develop team. Chevy took a gamble on a mid 20's player that would have been looked at to plug a hole on this roster. Had it worked he would have fit in age wise and really increased our depth. Hindsight tells us it was a bad move, but it was an attempt to address a roster hole. It seems like Chevy can't win with some of you, he's either dithering and doing nothing to address holes on the roster or because he isnt going all in on draft and develop he has no plan.

I do hate to be so hard on him because I was solidly on his side until less than a year ago. But given the numerous gaffs that have been made with Pavs, and the numerous UFAs that have been shipped down the road for absolutely nothing, he really needs to earn my trust now.

He can do that by getting rid of Pavs once and for all. I see no other meaningful solution unless he does much better this year (his 4th or 5th chance!) and can serve as a expensive backup until the next wave of goalies are ready.

He can do that if he makes a decision on whether to really go in on the draft and develop (as in get something, anything for expiring UFAs), hang onto and accumulate 1st and 2nd draft choices at the very least.

Its becoming obvious he didn't do enough homework in making the Seto decision -- so much baggage to give up a second for him. Many will say it was unfortunate that it didn't work out & that he couldn't even recoup any sort of draft pick for him as a UFA, but I think you have to hang a lot of the blame where it belongs there.

The disconnect right now for where we are going is really annoying. I mean a disconnect between going for draft picks & trying to just good enough to make the playoffs. Take last year, we lose Schief when we are making a final push to get into the playoffs. That should have been the last straw and we should have been hard sellers at that point. Why hang onto Jokinen, Thorbs, Redmond, or really any of your UFAs at that point. The message should be we're giving our AHLers who have earned the right for a decent tryout a real chance to prove they belong going forward. That not only finds out what they are made of (so you can make decisions on some as to whether they will be good or maybe could be traded). It tells everyone that they need to step up and play harder because we're down a couple bodies (the UFAs that should have been shipped), nows the time to show you belong on this team next year.

As for picking up significant UFA in the offseason, I'm not in that mindset. Happy to get Perrault - great pickup at that price. Galliardi may be good enough to do what is needed on 3rd-4th line -- I'm not convinced on him at all. But for those wanting the high priced UFAs - not unless they are young, really want to come, and will fit in long-term.

Its been said by many, but the proof of what we have for a GM will be how he handles not only Pavs in the next year, but key decisions need to be made on Frolic & Buff before or during the trade deadline, and Ladd isn't far behind. If he takes the easy road like he did with Pavs and Thorbs and just signs these guys for too much, well that obviously doesn't cut it either.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

It actually is kind of humorous to see the drafting being downplayed.

No sense in fretting over those that think we haven't drafted well , nor used the draft well.

That post comes across as pretty smug.

It actually is kind of humorous to see the drafting being portrayed as some kind of huge victory.

No sense in fretting over those that think we have drafted so well that we will build a contender with nothing else.

See, I can do that too.


Is it really "downplaying" the draft to say that it is too soon to judge? Is it really "downplaying" the draft to say that since only 2 players have made it to the NHL we are having to project the rest? Is it really "downplaying" the draft to say that some of those we have such high hopes for probably won't turn out when that is what ALWAYS happens?

Who are you referring to when you talk about "those that think we haven't drafted well"? I can't recall anyone saying that. Have we "used the draft well"? That depends on what you think is being attempted, what the goal is. It depends on what you mean by "used the draft well". The answer is not the same if you mean augment the core that arrived from Atlanta as it is if you mean to build (or rebuild) the team through D&D.

 

[Huffer]

you realize when he scored 14 in year 4 he did it in 37 games. pro rated he out scored kane that year.

If you look at it that way... Galchnyuk out produced Kane the first 2 years... does that mean he is worth more then Kane?

I kept it straight up for simplicity sake. Prorating at 37 games seems, interesting. Irregardless, pro-rated, their 4th seasons are Kane = 29, Max = 31. Now Max has 2 out of 5. Good thing the Habs kept him in the minors that year.

How did Galch out produce Kane in their 1st two years?

"protated"

1 - Kane - 17, Galch - 15
2 - Kane - 21, Galch - 16

Are you switching to points? Galch has him beat there in year one, Kane in year two (prorated of course).



Kane is as valuable to the Jets as Max is to the Habs and he's younger. Or as valuable as the Habs view Galch.

Think about what you want for Max, or Galch, and that's what the Jets want for Kane.

And what you want for Markov is what the Jets want for Buff. And Buff is 29 and could possibly re-sign with a team that picks him up. Markov is close to retirement.

 

[CaptainChef]

for exactly that reason.

Markov's value is higher then Buff.

as for the multiple pieces... you are getting gallagher. whos a top 6 forward at 22 years old. you are also receiving picks. its not just prospects... its actual roster players. and not just throw ins.. gallagher has good value with potential to be upper echelon good value...

All I hear from you is this player on your roster is better than Kane and this player is better than Buff. If you were really wanting these two players off our roster, you would appreciate the intangibles each brings -- and yes the intangibles are really what makes each so attractive (much more so than their point production in any one year).

So go back to the drawing board, decide why it was you really wanted these two guys, realize that you are not going to get either for a song, and then make a decent enough proposal to even be serious when compared to what we can get elsewhere (and really if we can't get that, they're going nowhere).

 

[CHaracter79]

All I hear from you is this player on your roster is better than Kane and this player is better than Buff. If you were really wanting these two players off our roster, you would appreciate the intangibles each brings -- and yes the intangibles are really what makes each so attractive (much more so than their point production in any one year).

So go back to the drawing board, decide why it was you really wanted these two guys, realize that you are not going to get either for a song, and then make a decent enough proposal to even be serious when compared to what we can get elsewhere (and really if we can't get that, they're going nowhere).

Where did I say our players are better. Futures are involved. thats where the rub is..

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Like it or not, Chevy has to be given some credit for drafting. He budgeted for and hired the scouting staff, and he surely had a large role in at least their early picks. He doubled the scouting staff from the Thrashers' era. Saying that Chevy shouldn't get credit for the quality of the team's drafting is just nonsense. Should we then not blame him for hiring a terrible coach? Should we blame the pro scouts and not Chevy for any bad trades?

Again, I think you are just jumping the gun too early. The Jets still have a very nice window to move core players for picks, prospects and young players. If they miss the window, I'll be the first to rake Chevy over the coals. In the meantime, the drafting and developing they have done so far has built a nice foundation.

I agree that trading a 2nd for Seto was a mistake, though I expect that he felt that Seto wouldn't be such a fire tire (who did?), and he could recoup a pick at the trade deadline. Maybe he could have gotten some sort of mid-round pick for Hainsey, or Jokinen, but it certainly seems as though it was a very soft market for those guys in retrospect.

I agree Chevy has to be given credit for drafting. I give him FULL credit for that. He is responsible for the scouts, he is responsible for the draft policies, he is responsible for the final decisions on each player taken or not taken. If the drafting had been bad it is Chevy we would be all over. OTOH if you are judging the drafting as being astoundingly, brilliantly, outstandingly good you are being waaayyyy premature as well as overrating the picks. Only 2 players have made it to the NHL, the rest project pretty well as a group. The 1st round picks look to be either right on their draft order or a little better. The jury is still out on the rest. There are some promising individuals but 5-6 of them (in addition to the 1st rds) need to become NHL regulars at some level just to keep up with the average pace. So credit where it is due but don't give more credit than has been earned.

The window to move core players has arrived. It hasn't passed by yet but it is not off in the distance either.

Again you are premature calling the drafted group a "nice foundation". You are counting chickens when all we have is a nice looking LITTLE pile of eggs.

The stuff in your last paragraph is mostly small potatoes. The Seto trade worked out badly. You win some, you lose some. I give Chevy credit (not for trying) for actually DOING something. What has he done since then? That was hardly "Mission Accomplished"!

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Fair enough, Chevy is the man in charge. Seems to have done a decent job drafting. Be nice if they could help the scouting staff out or do anything else though. Like it or not we are still at best below average in terms of prospect pools.

I keep hearing this, oh WHEN it goes bad I'll rake him over the coals. Every year this is said yet it's never ever too late. Just needs more time. Just a little more. Maybe just a little more.

For one, I could see the Seto disaster coming. I'm only somewhat connected to the hockey world and even I knew Seto no longer had any desire to play hockey his interests involved liquids and loud music much more so. Hard to believe Chevy didn't know about that, particularly just looking how his career has progressed.

My big problem with the Seto move though wasn't the move itself. It was it's complete inconsistency. We are a build through the draft build through the draft, nope let's toss away picks and go for it now. No now we are build through draft, that was nothing just ignore it now. No plan, Chevy is all over the place.

Mostly I agree with what you have been saying but calling the Seto trade a disaster is exaggeration. We lost a 2nd, not a 1st. A 2nd has less then 1 chance in 3 of turning into an NHL regular. Still important but disaster is the wrong word.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

My last post here (you'll be happy to hear, no doubt).

I agree about Seto. I don't know what went on behind closed doors, but I think it was a bad move.

I have repeatedly stated that I completely understand why the Jets might not have moved a core player before now. The past two years have seen a very constrained trade market, mostly due to a tight cap situation for a large number of teams. The major trades we've seen have been mostly out of necessity, and therefore the return for top players has been mediocre. I really think that the best trade window for Buff or Ladd or Enstrom (or maybe even Kane or Bogo or Enstrom) is the upcoming trade deadline. That would allow a contender to have Buff or Ladd for two full playoff seasons prior to UFA, teams will have more cap space, and they will have a firmer fix on the likely value of 2015 first round picks.

I'm not going to engage in hand-wringing at this stage. I'm going to focus on enjoying the season with my family.

You could very well be right about the best time to trade. The TD, rental market has not been that good the last couple of years. The cap shrink may have had something to do with that. It is hard to say whether the market will improve this year or not but there is some risk in everything. Maybe waiting for that is a good risk too take. Time will tell.

 

[CaptainChef]

Where did I say our players are better. Futures are involved. thats where the rub is..

Seriously... Go back and look at your conversations regarding Max/Kane and Markov/Buff. You are comparing apples to oranges in both cases yet the conversation went on & on - and yes you claimed that both were as good or better than our guys.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Buff has two years left on his contract. and Im pretty sure right now, almost every GM that has a win now attitude would take Markov over buff.

and yes, give up picks and prospects.

If brad stuart just got you a 2nd and 6th.. Markov gets you way more then that. WAY more.

I don't think anyone gives that much for a clearly declining Markov. That guy is good for 40 points or so but the chances he can be a 60+ point D man? none. If you trade him at the deadline this year it will be for peanuts. Maybe if he had 1 year left after this year you might get something but no one is going to pay that price for a guy who will be 36 with his injury history.

Buff on the the other hand is a proven 50+ point guy. He is 28 and signed for two more years. He isn't going to decline for awhile yet. Not only that there are very few players that have his physical presence on the ice. Maybe only Chara.

Markov great signing for your team. Vet leader and maybe in a year or two if things are not going well he is a rental at the deadline and you get a 2nd and 3rd back for him.

Buff is going to get us a mid to late 1st and top prospect IF we trade him

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I can forgive the Jets management which was borne in the AHL for making some mistakes at the NHL level...Setoguchi is one. Should not have been acquired, but the team needed depth, everyone agrees. Should have been traded at the deadline. Frolik was a good acquisition however.

I think that everyone would say that the franchise is in better hands under Chevy than it was under Don Waddell, and he has drafted more impact players to date (except for Kovalchuk). The team suffered after constant revolving coaches, and styles. Noel had 2 + years to help the team mature, Maurice will get his first full season to imprint a style that meets the standard. So Chevy is not Glen Sather...I think bringing the core of this team together over the past 3 seasons will pay diviidends.

If Ondrej Pavelec is the weak link again come training camp, and Hutchinson doesn't impress, do we make a play on Dustin Tokarski? Or Jhonas Enroth, if Buffalo contends for the Connor Mc David sweepstakes, though I think they will surprise with Ted Nolan coaching them. I don't expect any of the goalies we have drafted, in spite of their promise, to be ready until 2015, probably 2016. Pavelec for Cam Ward makes the most sense,in terms of fitting into the team, but are we ready to increase our cap hit by over 2 million for a goalie who may not be a huge improvement at this stage of his career? I think with the centres we have and kids like Adam Lowry and Andrew Copp on the horizon, Alexander Burmistrov may be bait for an upgrade at another position.

Why do people keep bringing up Cam Ward? The only goalie on the planet who makes more money than Pavelec and plays worse! OK, he only had 1 really bad season but it was REALLY bad and the one before was not much either. And he'll be getting $6.7mil this year! There must be 20-30 better options than that.

 

[Hunter368]

Why do people keep bringing up Cam Ward? The only goalie on the planet who makes more money than Pavelec and plays worse! OK, he only had 1 really bad season but it was REALLY bad and the one before was not much either. And he'll be getting $6.7mil this year! There must be 20-30 better options than that.

I think people bring him up so much, is b/c Hurr want to get rid of him as much or more than we want to be rid of Pavs. So he's often brought up in trade offers, personally I would take Pavs over Ward now and be dancing on the roof tops. IMO Ward is done in the NHL and is just collecting a chq every month. Both suck but Ward sucks more with his brutal contract. I shudder at the idea of having him as a starter or a backup at 6.7 mil.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

You do like to twist my words.

Jets SEEM to have drafted fine from where they have drafted (which is the scouting staff NOT Chevy and again only 2 guys have played in NHL to date so way too early).

The problem is the Jets have consistently failed to adopt a model for success IF they want to be a rebuilding team building through the draft. Standing pat and not giving your people the proper chances for longterm success is not a viable model.

Its a huge puzzle - agree entirely. How can we declare ourselves a draft and develop team when over the course of the last three years we have traded away as many draft picks as we have acquired! Thats in spite of acquiring two draft picks for Poni and two for Oduya. He's all over the place but so many want to focus only on a few positive moves he has made and his supposedly above-average drafting record (for first rounders anyway)

I think it depends on how we understand Chevy's stated commitment to D&D. Judging by his behaviour for the last 3+ years I don't think he meant that he was planning to rebuild that way or even what I would call building. I think he believes (maybe past tense I don't know) that his team was built. It just needed a little stability, a little coaching, a little time to gel and a little patching of holes around the edges. D&D would be the route to maintaining basically what we had with a hoped for small upgrade here & there to get from playoff team to contender.

He set out to sign most of those guys long term. Oduya did not want to stay and be a part of that so he was dealt. Hainsey & Antro didn't fit his vision so were allowed to walk. Olli & Pony were brought in to fill the holes and Clitsome more or less replaced Oduya. If those 3 worked out (and maybe Clitsome has), Burmi had stayed and the goaltending had been what was expected that was a decent playoff team. That plan has foundered on the rocks of Pavelecia. So what now? Now I think he is counting on our goalie prospects to fix that problem and then pick up right where he left off. The trouble is there has been a delay of at least 2 or 3 years in the plan. The existing core will be still useful but past their primes when the goaltending is good enough.

You 2 seem to be looking at his D&D as a plan to build a new different team. I think he thought he had a playoff team at least 1, maybe 2 years ago and that team would be a contender another 2 years from now. That's why there was no stockpiling of picks, no trades of core players and little signing of FAs.

JMO (guess) of his thinking.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

at 23 years old Kane scored 19 in 63 and max scored 33

Arent you guys doing the same thing with Kane? taking his one 30 goals season and trademarking him?

the facts are that Pacioretty did score 40 goals. has pro rated 30 every year except one..

Kane hasnt at all.

All im saying is you are asking for 4 first rounders + gallagher for Kane and Buff.

I think thats pretty steep.

I agree but not all 1st rounders are equal.

ok fine...

in Max's 5th year after the draft.. he scored 33 goals

in Kanes 5th year after the draft.. he scored 19 in 63

Your letting yourself get sidetracked by the Pacioretty comparisons. His name was brought up just to illustrate how Jets fans generally feel about Kanes value. You notice no one actually suggested Max for Kane straight up. Now Kane for Galchenyuk is interesting. Galch has an injury history that might be a concern.

for exactly that reason.

Markov's value is higher then Buff.

Buff has 6 good seasons before his value falls to where Markov's is now. Markov is a good player but 35 is not 29.

as for the multiple pieces... you are getting gallagher. whos a top 6 forward at 22 years old. you are also receiving picks. its not just prospects... its actual roster players. and not just throw ins.. gallagher has good value with potential to be upper echelon good value...

If we are talking Galchenyuk + Gallagher + '15 1st + '16 1st we can take it seriously.

What would you think of Galchenyuk, Lars Eller, Nathan Beaulieu, + a negotiable pick? I think there has to be 1 top quality piece in there to get Kane. We aren't desperate to move him.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Hello Jets Fans. We had a little thread on the main board and I gave a proposal that some disagreed with while others liked. Tell me what you think

The offer was...

To Mtl: E. Kane and D. Byfuglien

To Winn : Brendan Gallagher, David Desharnais, Magnus Nygren, 1st round pick 2015 and 1st round pick 2106

BTW, JMO but in case you are feeling unappreciated here I think that by including the 2 1st round picks you were making an attempt at a reasonable proposal. Just not quite right with the roster players and the prospect. Kane + Buff would make the Habs a MUCH better team now and for quite a few years into the future. It would make us quite a bit worse until and IF those picks develop. Too much risk for us for too little reward.

 

[CHaracter79]

BTW, JMO but in case you are feeling unappreciated here I think that by including the 2 1st round picks you were making an attempt at a reasonable proposal. Just not quite right with the roster players and the prospect. Kane + Buff would make the Habs a MUCH better team now and for quite a few years into the future. It would make us quite a bit worse until and IF those picks develop. Too much risk for us for too little reward.

I was tired of all the plek etc offers.

figured Gallagher would have been enough with the 2 firsts.

 

[jetkarma*]

That post comes across as pretty smug.

It actually is kind of humorous to see the drafting being portrayed as some kind of huge victory.

No sense in fretting over those that think we have drafted so well that we will build a contender with nothing else.

See, I can do that too.


Is it really "downplaying" the draft to say that it is too soon to judge? Is it really "downplaying" the draft to say that since only 2 players have made it to the NHL we are having to project the rest? Is it really "downplaying" the draft to say that some of those we have such high hopes for probably won't turn out when that is what ALWAYS happens?

Who are you referring to when you talk about "those that think we haven't drafted well"? I can't recall anyone saying that. Have we "used the draft well"? That depends on what you think is being attempted, what the goal is. It depends on what you mean by "used the draft well". The answer is not the same if you mean augment the core that arrived from Atlanta as it is if you mean to build (or rebuild) the team through D&D.

You think the drafting hasn't been a plus ? or a positive?

What I see from some , not all , of those that have been negative either for the path Chevy has taken or that they initially gave negative grades or comments to the drafting aspect , is now they are moving that to areas that have little if any validity.

Instead of looking at the overall draft picture and not basing opinions on what they initially formulated and staying there because they chose not to reevaluate.

There are some that think we haven't drafted well ( average maybe , missed on players they like better ) or used the draft properly.

It is too soon to give a final grade it however is not too soon to evaluate and rank where the picks are at this point , and I think we have done very well and have built the young base of prospects in a very positive direction.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

You think the drafting hasn't been a plus ? or a positive?

That's nowhere near what I said.

What I see from some , not all , of those that have been negative either for the path Chevy has taken or that they initially gave negative grades or comments to the drafting aspect , is now they are moving that to areas that have little if any validity.

Instead of looking at the overall draft picture and not basing opinions on what they initially formulated and staying there because they chose not to reevaluate.

There are some that think we haven't drafted well ( average maybe , missed on players they like better ) or used the draft properly.

I don't recall anyone saying that either.

It is too soon to give a final grade it however is not too soon to evaluate and rank where the picks are at this point , and I think we have done very well and have built the young base of prospects in a very positive direction.

 

[garret9]

Lol Markova better than Buff... Lololol no

I understand fans have a natural tendency to overvalue their own players but Buff is a superior player and younger.

 

[Aavco Cup]

@JimTothSports: #NHLJets Ladd on Free Agents "I know we tried to do more but we're in a market where we're going to have to win & be a playoff team" 1/2

@JimTothSports: #NHLJets Ladd on Free Agents "That's on the players in our room to get us going that way" 2/2

 

[CorgisPer60]

@JimTothSports: #NHLJets Ladd on Free Agents "I know we tried to do more but we're in a market where we're going to have to win & be a playoff team" 1/2

@JimTothSports: #NHLJets Ladd on Free Agents "That's on the players in our room to get us going that way" 2/2

That circles back to what I said a couple of weeks ago - the players have a huge influence on whether FAs sign here or not, and they need to work in concert with Chevy and TNSE to help facilitate that.

 

[Whileee]

@JimTothSports: #NHLJets Ladd on Free Agents "I know we tried to do more but we're in a market where we're going to have to win & be a playoff team" 1/2

@JimTothSports: #NHLJets Ladd on Free Agents "That's on the players in our room to get us going that way" 2/2

In other words, "Stastny wasn't going to go anywhere but a contender"...

 

[CorgisPer60]

In other words, "Stastny wasn't going to go anywhere but a contender"...

Statsny has family ties in St. Louis, yeah? That was likely the sole mitigating factor. That they're a playoff team is probably really delicious icing.