Jets Advanced Stats thread

[Flair Hay]

The 2nd line has been scoring at a high rate, perhaps because it generates a lot of its offense off the rush, rather than sustained offensive zone time and shot pressure. I think that's okay.

I agree that Ehlers getting back on form will increase the shot metrics for line 2, as well.

Interesting decisions on line combos when Vilardi is back. I think the top line probably needs a boost, so he should end up there. The question is whether to keep Namestnikov on line 3, or shake that up by moving Iafallo there. Right now, I don't think I'd mess with lines 2 or 3, but do you put Iafallo all the way down to line 4? Good dilemma to have.

Another look at the Jets using the Evolving Hockey RAPM model...

Based on shot metrics (i.e. shot volume and quality) the Jets have been very good defensively (at 5v5 and on the PK). Their 5v5 offense has been less impressive, and their PP offense has been bad. Vilardi might juice the offense. The PK's problem was sub-par goaltending early in the season, which has been coming around.

But it makes you wonder whether the Jets' main need is on D. They certainly don't seem to have problems defending with this D core, and the D has been generating plenty of goals / points. It will be interesting to see if the Jets' 5v5 and PP offense gets to a higher level with Vilardi back in the top-6 and on the PP.

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Some good points here. I was listening to the Too Lyne with Garret on and it had some really good discussion points and early conclusions about how to best help the team. Lines up with what you are seeing and saying.

From what I heard, they were saying make upgrades to the offense in the top half of the lineup (forward or defense) is how we can make biggest improvements.

 

[surixon]

A big part of the lack of EV offense is due to the 2nd line (and the 4th line but they don't play as many minutes so impact this less). They have a pretty low 2.18 xG/60 right now which is well below NHL average. Ehlers coming back to form would go a long way. Also Vlad is a good stop gap in case of injuries but maybe not a long term solution there.

The second lines main issued to me is Ehlers who is their main shooter is still mostly firing pucks from the perimeter. He needs to get into the slot more. Namestnikov also has a tendency to pass up shots from a good area and hold onto the puck. Really only Cole is regularly shooting from the danger areas.

 

[JetsFan815]

The 2nd line has been scoring at a high rate, perhaps because it generates a lot of its offense off the rush, rather than sustained offensive zone time and shot pressure. I think that's okay.

I agree that Ehlers getting back on form will increase the shot metrics for line 2, as well.

Interesting decisions on line combos when Vilardi is back. I think the top line probably needs a boost, so he should end up there. The question is whether to keep Namestnikov on line 3, or shake that up by moving Iafallo there. Right now, I don't think I'd mess with lines 2 or 3, but do you put Iafallo all the way down to line 4? Good dilemma to have.

They do generate a good amount of offensive zone time and shots but it doesn't seem like it is of great quality. For example their Corsi For/60 rate is better than the top line but their xGF generation rate is over half an xG per hour worse than the top line.

I would definitely not touch the 3rd line, they are cooking. Iafallo is the one to move when Vilardi is healthy. He has done a good job on that line but he is not an ideal fit with them. Whether it is him or Names that goes down to the 4th line depends on how much they feel 91 can play Center. I think both combinations are worth a look.

 

[DRW204]

They do generate a good amount of offensive zone time and shots but it doesn't seem like it is of great quality. For example their Corsi For/60 rate is better than the top line but their xGF generation rate is over half an xG per hour worse than the top line.

I would definitely not touch the 3rd line, they are cooking. Iafallo is the one to move when Vilardi is healthy. He has done a good job on that line but he is not an ideal fit with them. Whether it is him or Names that goes down to the 4th line depends on how much they feel 91 can play Center. I think both combinations are worth a look.

agreed on iafallo. namestnikov is starting to really produce i wouldn't move him just yet.

 

[WolfHouse]

They do generate a good amount of offensive zone time and shots but it doesn't seem like it is of great quality. For example their Corsi For/60 rate is better than the top line but their xGF generation rate is over half an xG per hour worse than the top line.

I would definitely not touch the 3rd line, they are cooking. Iafallo is the one to move when Vilardi is healthy. He has done a good job on that line but he is not an ideal fit with them. Whether it is him or Names that goes down to the 4th line depends on how much they feel 91 can play Center. I think both combinations are worth a look.

Both Names and Perfetti are around 35% FO... that might mean they look at Vilardi as 2C for a bit

 

[surixon]

They do generate a good amount of offensive zone time and shots but it doesn't seem like it is of great quality. For example their Corsi For/60 rate is better than the top line but their xGF generation rate is over half an xG per hour worse than the top line.

I would definitely not touch the 3rd line, they are cooking. Iafallo is the one to move when Vilardi is healthy. He has done a good job on that line but he is not an ideal fit with them. Whether it is him or Names that goes down to the 4th line depends on how much they feel 91 can play Center. I think both combinations are worth a look.

This is the primary reason, Ehlers has bee allergic to the slot. On the flipside Perfetti is living there. Namestnikov just isn't taking enough shots.

 

[LowLefty]

This is the primary reason, Ehlers has bee allergic to the slot. On the flipside Perfetti is living there. Namestnikov just isn't taking enough shots.

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I'd think Ehlers will be heading for the slot area a lot more as his game improves - he used to love cutting to the middle off the rush - we'll likely see more of that going forward.
Personally, I'm OK with Names not shooting as much as we might think he should - he doesn't have much of a shot and I like his passing - Ehlers and Cole would likely agree.

 

[surixon]

I'd think Ehlers will be heading for the slot area a lot more as his game improves - he used to love cutting to the middle off the rush - we'll likely see more of that going forward.
Personally, I'm OK with Names not shooting as much as we might think he should - he doesn't have much of a shot and I like his passing - Ehlers and Cole would likely agree.

I'm more talking about when he has the puck in a good shooting location. He tends to take it out of that location and cuts back. In those cases his best play is to put it on net then going to the point or taking it to the boards.

 

[WolfHouse]

I'm more talking about when he has the puck in a good shooting location. He tends to take it out of that location and cuts back. In those cases his best play is to put it on net then going to the point or taking it to the boards.

As you know I like Names... but I think the optimal second line would be Perfetti-Vilardi-Ehlers with Vilardi crashing the net and looking for rebounds

 

[surixon]

As you know I like Names... but I think the optimal second line would be Perfetti-Vilardi-Ehlers with Vilardi crashing the net and looking for rebounds

I'd be fine with that but the first line while scoring is getting caved in in terms of metrics. I think they need Gabes defense especially for when they hit some cold spells. Also they aren't exactly outscoring the opposition by much 9 gf vs 8 GA.

I'd like to see Iafallo with Cole and Ehelers. He's a smart guy that can do the dirty work on the wall and he gets to the net well.

 

[surixon]

The Jets are scoring and winning so far but I have some concerns that they will keep scoring if the keep trending towards fewer and fewer quality shots. It's my one big concern with this coaching staff. They seem to understand the d side incredibly well but we are largely a perimiter based ozone and shooting team. This is in contrast to last year where the Jets got to the slot regularly. It's such a stark contrast that it seems intentional. Am I missing something with these new schemes that would lead to more goals while taking less dangerous shots, I.e is there more seam passing to open players vs. Shots from head on with a set goalie.

 

[WolfHouse]

The Jets are scoring and winning so far but I have some concerns that they will keep scoring if the keep trending towards fewer and fewer quality shots. It's my one big concern with this coaching staff. They seem to understand the d side incredibly well but we are largely a perimiter based ozone and shooting team. This is in contrast to last year where the Jets got to the slot regularly. It's such a stark contrast that it seems intentional. Am I missing something with these new schemes that would lead to more goals while taking less dangerous shots, I.e is there more seam passing to open players vs. Shots from head on with a set goalie.

We are winning more now that we are getting less high danger chances... aside from the five shots in the slot in one minute last game I guess.

Bowness has always said he wants more shots from the D and more traffic in front for rebounds - I see this happening - I'd say this post is premature worry. Revisit this at Allstar break

 

[LowLefty]

We are winning more now that we are getting less high danger chances... aside from the five shots in the slot in one minute last game I guess.

Bowness has always said he wants more shots from the D and more traffic in front for rebounds - I see this happening - I'd say this post is premature worry. Revisit this at Allstar break

I agree with this - Bones has asked for more shots
The other thing he has asked for (from the D), is for them to cheat a little (or a lot) along the walls in the ozone
I don't see much of that lately (other than JoMo) - but might be just my eye test failing.
But it sure looks like we are getting less D support in ozone possession.
So, if true, has there been a change in strategy to cut back on some of the odd man rushes against that we were dealing with earlier in the season?

 

[WPGChief]

The Jets are scoring and winning so far but I have some concerns that they will keep scoring if the keep trending towards fewer and fewer quality shots. It's my one big concern with this coaching staff. They seem to understand the d side incredibly well but we are largely a perimiter based ozone and shooting team. This is in contrast to last year where the Jets got to the slot regularly. It's such a stark contrast that it seems intentional. Am I missing something with these new schemes that would lead to more goals while taking less dangerous shots, I.e is there more seam passing to open players vs. Shots from head on with a set goalie.

This isn't limited to the Jets: there's been a real odd trend across the whole NHL lately of not getting to the inner slot lately:



I only have two theories at the moment for why this is the case (and yes, the NHL's shot location data quality has already been somewhat confirmed as accurate (or at least, not inaccurate like it was 2-3 years ago)):
1) NHL is a copycat league, and last year's winners - the Vegas Golden Knights - had a strong zone defence to protect the inner slot.
2) NHL's offences have modernized a bit more than just "shots from the point and thru traffic" and more into seam passes across the 'royal road' (i.e. get goaltenders moving laterally).

This will be interesting to monitor as the season continues

 

[surixon]

This isn't limited to the Jets: there's been a real odd trend across the whole NHL lately of not getting to the inner slot lately:



I only have two theories at the moment for why this is the case (and yes, the NHL's shot location data quality has already been somewhat confirmed as accurate (or at least, not inaccurate like it was 2-3 years ago)):
1) NHL is a copycat league, and last year's winners - the Vegas Golden Knights - had a strong zone defence to protect the inner slot.
2) NHL's offences have modernized a bit more than just "shots from the point and thru traffic" and more into seam passes across the 'royal road' (i.e. get goaltenders moving laterally).

This will be interesting to monitor as the season continues

Yeah, that is what I was wondering if the heat maps were due to more cross seam passes to one timers on either side. If so then the XGF models likely need to be adapted as those are higher dangerous looks then shots from the slot on a set goalie.

I'll be paying a bit more attention to see how the Jets are generating their looks.

We are winning more now that we are getting less high danger chances... aside from the five shots in the slot in one minute last game I guess.

Bowness has always said he wants more shots from the D and more traffic in front for rebounds - I see this happening - I'd say this post is premature worry. Revisit this at Allstar break

Sure that was a good flurry of them but on the whole through a 1/4 the season we aren't getting to the slot more then the average team. Could be due to a different strategy like chief indicated or other teams are concentrating on defending the slot much more.

 

[JetsFan815]

This isn't limited to the Jets: there's been a real odd trend across the whole NHL lately of not getting to the inner slot lately:



I only have two theories at the moment for why this is the case (and yes, the NHL's shot location data quality has already been somewhat confirmed as accurate (or at least, not inaccurate like it was 2-3 years ago)):
1) NHL is a copycat league, and last year's winners - the Vegas Golden Knights - had a strong zone defence to protect the inner slot.
2) NHL's offences have modernized a bit more than just "shots from the point and thru traffic" and more into seam passes across the 'royal road' (i.e. get goaltenders moving laterally).

This will be interesting to monitor as the season continues

I would never have imagined that "Box + 1" in the d-zone would be so successful at the NHL level and have teams running out to adopt it to copy Vegas. I have never played any serious hockey but even I know "Box + 1" is system for little kids to get them playing zone D without confusing them too much when teaching them a defensive zone system for the first time that isn't Man on Man.

Also interesting to me that all of a sudden passive PKs are all the rage in the NHL, pretty much every PK in the league now is super-passive, maybe Maurice/Huddy were ahead of their time now that it seems like pretty much every PK is doing a variation on the passive box they brought to Winnipeg a few years ago.

 

[JetsFan815]

Murat's quarter season take on the Jets so far The Jets' risers and fallers at the season's quarter point

Declares Scheifele the Jets MVP so far this season with nods to the 3rd line.

I agree with the article but I wouldn't be so hard on Schmidt... he has been decent in his role.

 

[surixon]

Ok I went and looked at the 5 on 5 goals to see how we scored them:

Goals off opposition:
2

Goals that went in clear from a point or long range shot:
6

Goals from paint:
Off pass from below goal line 2
Off pass from point 2
From cross ice pass 3
Off deke 2
Off Wraparound 1
Off a rebound 2
Tip 1

Slot:
Cross ice pass 4
From below goal line pass 5
Rebound 3
Player takes to slot themselves 7
Pass from point 2
Off broken play 3

The Jets are not getting that many rebound/tip Goals. The majority of slot and paint Goals are coming directly Off a pass or our skilled players taking the puck to the slot themselves.

 

[JetsFan815]

There are some early warning signs to be concerned about, we talked much about how good the 5 on 5 numbers looked to start off the season but since Nov 10, this team ranks 30th in Expected Goals %. Corsi isn't much better either.

The goaltending has been covering for it. I wasn't too worried about it but after they lost in this metric to the Blackhawks who are terrible, I am starting to get concerned and getting flashbacks of the 18-19 season where after a decent start the 5 on 5 play totally collapsed around late-December.

Remember the Jets are a top3 team in xGoalsAgainst thing we were talking about? All gone, now in this period they are solidly in the bottom half of the league in this metric and in terms of xGoalsFor the only team they are generating more than is the Sharks.

We have essentially been the last few years of the Maurice era Jets in this period, a team that is getting owned at evens and surviving on the back of the goalie and sh % (which is starting to regress to normal levels).

I am not saying it's a 5-alarm fire and the Jets are about to go on a losing streak but it is something to monitor and be concerned about.

 

[surixon]

There are some early warning signs to be concerned about, we talked much about how good the 5 on 5 numbers looked to start off the season but since Nov 10, this team ranks 30th in Expected Goals %. Corsi isn't much better either.

The goaltending has been covering for it. I wasn't too worried about it but after they lost in this metric to the Blackhawks who are terrible, I am starting to get concerned and getting flashbacks of the 18-19 season where after a decent start the 5 on 5 play totally collapsed around late-December.

Remember the Jets are a top3 team in xGoalsAgainst thing we were talking about? All gone, now in this period they are solidly in the bottom half of the league in this metric and in terms of xGoalsFor the only team they are generating more than is the Sharks.

We have essentially been the last few years of the Maurice era Jets in this period, a team that is getting owned at evens and surviving on the back of the goalie and sh % (which is starting to regress to normal levels).

I am not saying it's a 5-alarm fire and the Jets are about to go on a losing streak but it is something to monitor and be concerned about.

It will be interesting to see how we trend over the year. I expect there will be peaks and valleys. The good news is we covered for bad tending with elite metrics earlier on and goaltending has covered for a down trend more recently. The optimist in me thinks we will be a pretty dangerous team if we can get all facet of our game going at once.

But I still stand by my assessment that Bones doesn't have systems that help the group generate enough scoring chances. That to me will be something to really watch as the season goes on.

But in terms of teams close by us in terms of XGF%, we are right there with Boston, Vegas, the Rangers and Tampa. So pretty good company. I'm also curious if XGF might become more and more of an outdated stat given that all these teams now have all the data from puck and player tracking. They can now likely custom player specific plays and shot location that XGF can't reasonably measure.

Garrett talked about this in one of his weekly emails. He broke down the Perfetti to Ehlers side of the net tap in goal. The XGF model rated that shot location as lower in terms of XGF then had Cole shot the puck on net. That clearly shows some issues with the model as a tap in goal with no goalie is clearly of higher value then trying to shoot through a dmen and through a set goalie.

 

[DRW204]

 

[tbcwpg]

I think Bones' system just naturally leads to fewer odd man rushes against. The D are very quick to abandon the blue line if there's a hint that they're about to lose possession in the o-zone.

 

[gojetsgo]

It will be interesting to see how we trend over the year. I expect there will be peaks and valleys. The good news is we covered for bad tending with elite metrics earlier on and goaltending has covered for a down trend more recently. The optimist in me thinks we will be a pretty dangerous team if we can get all facet of our game going at once.

But I still stand by my assessment that Bones doesn't have systems that help the group generate enough scoring chances. That to me will be something to really watch as the season goes on.

But in terms of teams close by us in terms of XGF%, we are right there with Boston, Vegas, the Rangers and Tampa. So pretty good company. I'm also curious if XGF might become more and more of an outdated stat given that all these teams now have all the data from puck and player tracking. They can now likely custom player specific plays and shot location that XGF can't reasonably measure.

Garrett talked about this in one of his weekly emails. He broke down the Perfetti to Ehlers side of the net tap in goal. The XGF model rated that shot location as lower in terms of XGF then had Cole shot the puck on net. That clearly shows some issues with the model as a tap in goal with no goalie is clearly of higher value then trying to shoot through a dmen and through a set goalie.

bones said after the canes game the scoring chances were 5-3 after the first for canes and we were ahead after the second and I'm willing to bet that the public models didn't reflect that

 

[surixon]

bones said after the canes game the scoring chances were 5-3 after the first for canes and we were ahead after the second and I'm willing to bet that the public models didn't reflect that

They definitely didn't. Makes you wonder what their criteria is for a scoring chance.

 

[Buffdog]

bones said after the canes game the scoring chances were 5-3 after the first for canes and we were ahead after the second and I'm willing to bet that the public models didn't reflect that

It's funny... as a goalie, I always found that I needed to be busier to be in the game

There's nothing a team could have done that's better for me getting "into the zone" than throwing a bunch of pucks at the net on low danger shots

It's possible that onenof the reasons why Bro played so well is the canes' strategy of shot volume over quality

That, and there was nothing worse than standing there for half a period with no action then all of a sudden there's a 2-1 or a breakaway