Post-Game Talk: Jets 4 - Canucks 2

[Inanna]

sorry, computer messed up, will try again later.

I'll have to remember this excuse for when I need it later...

 

[surixon]

I agree. Watching Josh play these past 2 seasons is an absolute marvel. I'll get flack for this, but I take him over Quinn Huges, because as dynamic as he is, I really do not see a weakness in Josh's game. He does it all, and at an elite level.

It's a f***ing shame that the Norris is a D scoring title trophy. It should be, as it's defined, the BEST defenseman.

I don't know why there aren't more trophies for D. There should be highest scoring, best defensive and overall best.

Yeah, he'll finish lower in voting this year but imo he's much better. Still elite offense but his d game has gotten back to the level of his first fee years. An incredibly balanced player now.

 

[DRW204]

What confuses the Gus situation is names. Unskilled 4th line traditional 4th line Gus over perfetti makes sense. But with the way perfetti is playing they should have not brought in toffoli and kept their draft capital for the future.

Perfetti should've been playing like this and producing from December through February and they probably would have not traded for Toffoli. But really, there should opportunity for both of them in the lineup

 

[WolfHouse]

Ok, I'll try to answer. Cole does those little things as well. My guess is they are more noticed on Gus because that is really all he brings to the table whereas Cole is more counted on the score.

You talk about safe zone exits and wnsuring pucks get out. That data is tracked by Garrett and both Perfetti and Gus are tied for second best among forwards in the team with an 11% zone exit failure rate. Which means both are very good at ensuring the puck safely gets out of the zone. We have seen a number of examples of this by Cole. Just last week he smartly blocks out the opposition dmen and ties up his stick. It allows DeMelo's outlet to get by setting up a two on one in which Connor scores.

Cole also anticipates the play really well in the dzone. That was seen perfectly on his en goal last night. He read the play, jumped the route and put the game away. There are countless other times where he's supporting the d well and quickly recognizes danger and grabs loose pucks infront of our net and safety gets it out.

To be fair Gus does all this as well.

I get that this org doesn't have the best track record when it comes to developing rounded skilled players. All of Scheifele, KC, Laine, Roslovic and Ehlers range from mediocre to downright awful in their end which may cloud some judgement. But after 150 or so games of being consistently among the best on the team in goal prevention Cole is clearly doing something right.

This org had its best ever run when they had Little and Perrault on the fourth line. Skill that could be responsible in their end. That is what I see as possible with Perfetti, Namestnikov and Iafallo.

I guess I just view roster building differently. All the multiple cup winning teams had skill in the bottom 6. Kessel and Bonnio in Pittsburgh, Gourde and Johnson in Tampa. Richard's in LA etc.

Real skill guys like keegan kolesar, pat maroon, .Michael amadio, ross colton.... yup

 

[surixon]

I'm trying to think of another 19-goal player who's being healthy scratched by a team in the playoffs.

Here are all the 20-19-18 goal scorers on playoff teams:
Byfield LAK
Garland VAN
Cirelli TBL
Foegele EDM
Bennet FLA
Lee NYI
Perfetti WPG
Svechnikov CAR
DeBrusk BOS
Barbashev VGK
Drouin COL
Nugent-Hopkins EDM
Niederreiter WPG
McMichael WSH
Bouchard EDM
Mittelstadt COL
Frederic BOS
Novak NSH
Joshua VAN
Wilson WSH

Perfetti's the only health scratch I see on there.

Yup, no other coach would leave that amount of goals in the PB.

Real skill guys like keegan kolesar, pat maroon, .Michael amadio, ross colton.... yup

They had both. The Jets have their Lowry's, Appeltons and Iafallos in as well. None of those teams went pure grit and role player which is what your implying. The Jets are going pure role player under Bones.

 

[ello]

Ok, I'll try to answer. Cole does those little things as well. My guess is they are more noticed on Gus because that is really all he brings to the table whereas Cole is more counted on the score.

You talk about safe zone exits and wnsuring pucks get out. That data is tracked by Garrett and both Perfetti and Gus are tied for second best among forwards in the team with an 11% zone exit failure rate. Which means both are very good at ensuring the puck safely gets out of the zone. We have seen a number of examples of this by Cole. Just last week he smartly blocks out the opposition dmen and ties up his stick. It allows DeMelo's outlet to get by setting up a two on one in which Connor scores.

Cole also anticipates the play really well in the dzone. That was seen perfectly on his en goal last night. He read the play, jumped the route and put the game away. There are countless other times where he's supporting the d well and quickly recognizes danger and grabs loose pucks infront of our net and safety gets it out.

To be fair Gus does all this as well.

I get that this org doesn't have the best track record when it comes to developing rounded skilled players. All of Scheifele, KC, Laine, Roslovic and Ehlers range from mediocre to downright awful in their end which may cloud some judgement. But after 150 or so games of being consistently among the best on the team in goal prevention Cole is clearly doing something right.

This org had its best ever run when they had Little and Perrault on the fourth line. Skill that could be responsible in their end. That is what I see as possible with Perfetti, Namestnikov and Iafallo.

I guess I just view roster building differently. All the multiple cup winning teams had skill in the bottom 6. Kessel and Bonnio in Pittsburgh, Gourde and Johnson in Tampa. Richard's in LA etc.

I admire ur resolve when it comes to defending Perfetti and I’m behind you on this one. Unless we win every series in 4-5 en route to a Cup Perfetti will get his opportunity

 

[WolfHouse]

Yup, no other coach would leave that amount of goals in the PB.

You know you've gone the full season and offseason taking shots at bones... basically because he didn't make your pet project 2C...

Just give it a rest - putting a healthy rested perfetti in for game 3 or 4 seems like a really nice option to have... and no he's not better in a fourth line role than barron or gus.

Bones system is our only shot at a cup - who gives a f*** about perfetti.

 

[Weezeric]

I wonder how many points Morgan Barron would have if he had Perfetti’s usage this year….

 

[SensibleGuy]

I’m not saying there is no value. I’m saying it’s overstated by many and used poorly by most.

I think when teams use their analytics they will start with a specific question or situation and look for stats the specifically feed into that question or situation. It’s not just well the puck is in the other end according to the shot clock, therefore player good. That's just a step a head of +/-. There is too much garbage input to call that accurate for each specific player. It might give you an idea but there is a lot of room for error.

I totally agree with that...which is why I assume there's more to it than just "well the puck is in the other end according to the shot clock." I mean if I were working on analytics, it would be hugely important to me to try and separate the individual player from the team in order to ascertain what that player's specific impact is. So I'd be looking at what happens to different lines when that player is added to or removed from them for instance. And I'm not an analytics guy lol...I'm just a dummy on a forum. That's what I mean...if you and I can think of these issues, I feel pretty confident they've been thought of by the people who actually come up with these numbers. Now of course, that doesn't mean you just accept whatever comes along...but some of this stuff has been around quite some time now and has gained a fair bit of acceptance as having solid value.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Yeah, I was referring his last years here. He did have a real good d core for his first 4 to 5 years here.

Yeah, but, the way how perfetti plays D it’s top 6 d. As in he does it with skill. There is value to physicality in bottom 6 if you are not expecting a lot of goals as getting hit takes a toll on the other team’s skill players vs a poke check.

 

[Buffdog]

I totally agree with that...which is why I assume there's more to it than just "well the puck is in the other end according to the shot clock." I mean if I were working on analytics, it would be hugely important to me to try and separate the individual player from the team in order to ascertain what that player's specific impact is. So I'd be looking at what happens to different lines when that player is added to or removed from them for instance. And I'm not an analytics guy lol...I'm just a dummy on a forum. That's what I mean...if you and I can think of these issues, I feel pretty confident they've been thought of buy the people who actually come up with these numbers. Now of course, that doesn't mean you just accept whatever comes along...but some of this stuff has been around quite some time now and has gained a fair bit of acceptance as having solid value.

We're all just dummies on a forum lol

I think you nailed one of the issues with hockey analytics. Baseball is easier because at the root of it, it's an individual sport - pitcher vs batter. Sure, who's hitting behind you in the batting order or the defense behind the pitcher can have an impact on the quality of putches you see to hit or the amount of hits you give up, but at the end of the day a guy who is a career. 280 hitter on one team can move to another team and he's gonna be right there

In hockey, there are too many confounders to control for. Quality of linemates and quality of opposition for example. If any stat were truly reliable, it would be consistent for that player across all situations and usages. On top of that, stats that require human observation (like zone exits and xGF) can have not only poor reliability, but can be inaccurate as well. What that a dangerous scoring chance? No if Kupari is taking the shot from that position, but yes if it's Matthews.

So not only is there a ton of noise in the signal, but people love to say "Player X is good because he has a 53% (insert stat here) and Player Y is bad because his stat is lower" (especially if they're making an argument on behalf of Palyer X - when a stat goes against that player, it's always "well, yeah BUT....").

Anyway, I'm not shitting on stats altogether. They're a useful (somewhat) objective observation of what's occurred. When matched with unbiased subjective observation, they can be very useful

 

[Bigfish]

I wonder how many points Morgan Barron would have if he had Perfetti’s usage this year….

Or Iafallo's usage?

 

[DRW204]

You know you've gone the full season and offseason taking shots at bones... basically because he didn't make your pet project 2C...

Just give it a rest - putting a healthy rested perfetti in for game 3 or 4 seems like a really nice option to have... and no he's not better in a fourth line role than barron or gus.

Bones system is our only shot at a cup - who gives a f*** about perfetti.

Yup. Poster just has a hard on and stans the shit out of perfetti. if you were around earlier this year even questioned why Bowness is even an NHL coach b/c perfetti was a 2nd line winger (says the poster with 70000 posts on a internet forum)

 

[surixon]

Yeah, but, the way how perfetti plays D it’s top 6 d. As in he does it with skill. There is value to physicality in bottom 6 if you are not expecting a lot of goals as getting hit takes a toll on the other team’s skill players vs a poke check.

I get this reasoning. In theory it sounds great to physically beat up and wear other teams skilled guys down. Here is my issue with that logic, our fourth line will see very little of the other teams top skill. So very little to zero wearing down of said skill will actually occur. What you get is two fourth lines beating the snot out of each other and that to me is a zero sums game.

 

[WolfHouse]

I get this reasoning. In theory it sounds great to physically beat up and wear other teams skilled guys down. Here is my issue with that logic, our fourth line will see very little of the other teams top skill. So very little to zero wearing down of said skill will actually occur. What you get is two fourth lines beating the snot out of each other and that to me is a zero sums game.

Have you watched playoff hockey?

 

[surixon]

Have you watched playoff hockey?

Yeah, and by and large the more skilled teams win in the end. You have a different view then me and that is fine. Actually argue the points I'm making instead of taking shots.

 

[Nolan Giesbrecht]

OK, I'm not trying to be a dick (for a change), but of you didn't have numbers and metrics, how would ypu contrast Cole's game vs say Barron or Gus based soley on watching them play?


There are tons of little plays that don't end up anywhere on a stats sheet, including advanced metrics. Board battles that get pucks out (or keep pucks in) that lead to line changes, smart puck management in danger zones, etc. For bottom six guys (especially 4th line guys), that's the stuff that coaches want them to be elite at. It's not their job to score, it's to be dependable where they're out there

Those little things are examples of what Gus has been doing surprisingly well this season. That said, his strengths don't belong in the top six because their role is different

Gah, this is my second attempt at a reply because my page refreshed and deleted it. By the way, does anyone else have this issue? When I read through threads the page refreshes constantly, forcing my to scroll down and find my place again. Aggravating.

I find Perfetti catches my eye with the little details of his game - his vision to make smart passes to help break out, getting his stick into the right defensive lanes and breaking up plays, his ability to slow things down to create room for a play to develop, etc.

It’s not as noticeable as bigger players, skating fast and creating havoc, but it’s still there in a different form. And I like Barron and Gus. B

 

[Adam da bomb]

I get this reasoning. In theory it sounds great to physically beat up and wear other teams skilled guys down. Here is my issue with that logic, our fourth line will see very little of the other teams top skill. So very little to zero wearing down of said skill will actually occur. What you get is two fourth lines beating the snot out of each other and that to me is a zero sums game.

But the way the line is designed they are great defensively and are designed to fill the role. Whether they get used in that role is a different story, but, I’d rather see Barron and names paired up against the other team’s top or second line than schief and kc.
The way bottom line isn’t used does it matter if Gus gets the 3 minutes a game or perfetti?

 

[Buffdog]

I get this reasoning. In theory it sounds great to physically beat up and wear other teams skilled guys down. Here is my issue with that logic, our fourth line will see very little of the other teams top skill. So very little to zero wearing down of said skill will actually occur. What you get is two fourth lines beating the snot out of each other and that to me is a zero sums game.

On the Jets, that job is for Lowry's line. They're not gonna win the match ups vs other top teams lines, but it should create softer match ups for schief and monahan

BUT that leaves the 4th line. What kind of line do ypu want it to be? How will it be deployed? What happens of it does end up vs other teams top lines for a shift or two?

We definitely have the skill to run a "skilled light 4th" with Cole Names Iafallo but I'm not sure how you deploy that. If another team runs a big, quick heavy unskilled 4th, we could get hemmed in. I really don't know

 

[WolfHouse]

Yeah, and by and large the more skilled teams win in the end. You have a different view then me and that is fine. Actually argue the points I'm making instead of taking shots.

The challenge is that you're cherry picking data just to support your perfetti crusade

The winning teams didn't have 'finesse' scoring fourth lines... they are formerly scoring vets and/or grit/character guys who have speed to forecheck.

Every team that wins has a hard hitting fourth line - one that is sent out to wear out the other team... you can dream that Tampa Bay had some magical scoring fourth line - but they didn't.

On the Jets, that job is for Lowry's line. They're not gonna win the match ups vs other top teams lines, but it should create softer match ups for schief and monahan

BUT that leaves the 4th line. What kind of line do ypu want it to be? How will it be deployed? What happens of it does end up vs other teams top lines for a shift or two?

We definitely have the skill to run a "skilled light 4th" with Cole Names Iafallo but I'm not sure how you deploy that. If another team runs a big, quick heavy unskilled 4th, we could get hemmed in. I really don't know

You've got two guys on there that are 175-180lbs.. Bones will end up benching them in a hard game

 

[Jets 31]

Again i don't understand the Bowness shots , if we missed the playoffs or just made it in but were playing like shit maybe but this is the best defensive team in the NHL and Bowness has a big part in that. Some really think Bowness is a bad coach and with another coach we would have been the best team of all time i guess.

 

[Buffdog]

Gah, this is my second attempt at a reply because my page refreshed and deleted it. By the way, does anyone else have this issue? When I read through threads the page refreshes constantly, forcing my to scroll down and find my place again. Aggravating.

I find Perfetti catches my eye with the little details of his game - his vision to make smart passes to help break out, getting his stick into the right defensive lanes and breaking up plays, his ability to slow things down to create room for a play to develop, etc.

It’s not as noticeable as bigger players, skating fast and creating havoc, but it’s still there in a different form. And I like Barron and Gus. B

Agree 100%. My issue isn't with Cole, but just how he fits into what Bones has running.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Gah, this is my second attempt at a reply because my page refreshed and deleted it. By the way, does anyone else have this issue? When I read through threads the page refreshes constantly, forcing my to scroll down and find my place again. Aggravating.

I find Perfetti catches my eye with the little details of his game - his vision to make smart passes to help break out, getting his stick into the right defensive lanes and breaking up plays, his ability to slow things down to create room for a play to develop, etc.

It’s not as noticeable as bigger players, skating fast and creating havoc, but it’s still there in a different form. And I like Barron and Gus. B

Yes I have the same problem. It’s why we shouldn’t have brought in toffoli and played perfetti with skilled guys. He is great defensively but wasted in bottom 6 role.

 

[buggs]

We not only beat the Canucks but we also finished the season ahead of them. Doubly sweet when you have family in Vancouver and some of them are rabid Canucks fans.

But what's with this weather? A couple of weeks ago I grabbed half an hour of balcony tanning and this morning I'm scraping snow off the car. Unreal! I didn't realize that the playoff whiteout tradition actually involves real snow.

Fingers crossed that we get sunshine and (some) warmth for Sunday afternoon and evening.

Was curious whether you were a Canucks fan or not. Now I'm curious as to why you're seemingly more of a Jets fan than a Nucks fan? And will you revert should you go home?

As to the weather I'm guessing we don't print it in brochures, but I believe July is the only month in the calendar in which snow has not been recorded as falling in Winnipeg, from a historical perspective. Generally don't plant your garden until the May long weekend due to frost.

The probable driving force between later snows occurring is how many in Winnipeg took their snow tires off before it was actually sensible to do so (myself included). If it was a majority, we will get snow. The mild winter lulled us all into a false sense of security. You're excused, we should have known better. In my own defense I did leave the snowbrush in the car so I played it better than most.

 

[JetsFan815]

If only people had noticed this and were posting about this when he was acquired

Don't question an NHL headcoach with decades of experience! No Questioning!