Post-Game Talk: Jets 4 - Canucks 2

[Gm0ney]

I think it's a mixture of both. Morrissey was showing signs of being an elite impact d-man the season before Bones under Maurice/Lowry. Based on @IneffetiveMath's Synthetic Goals metric he had already achieved #1 d-man results the season prior to Bones:



So maybe Bones helped unlock the offense by giving him the greenlight but I would not be surprised if JoMo was going to post elite results no matter what.

2020-21 Morrissey played nearly half his minutes with Tucker Poolman.
2021-22 Morrissey played nearly half his minutes with Dylan DeMelo.
2022-23 Morrissey played nearly half his minutes with Dylan DeMelo.
2023-24 Morrissey played 75% of his minutes with Dylan DeMelo.

DeMelo is an ideal partner for Morrissey.

 

[DRW204]

2020-21 Morrissey played nearly half his minutes with Tucker Poolman.
2021-22 Morrissey played nearly half his minutes with Dylan DeMelo.
2022-23 Morrissey played nearly half his minutes with Dylan DeMelo.
2023-24 Morrissey played 75% of his minutes with Dylan DeMelo.

DeMelo is an ideal partner for Morrissey.

If only people had noticed this and were posting about this when he was acquired

 

[JetsUK]

I've been so excited for his debut. I really like his game, a great mix of high skill, iq and tenaciousness.

I still think he might be the best of the new crop.

I think of he and Lambert as a pair of peak Perraults.

Different skill sets, but each brings a really interesting mix of speed, smarts, skill, will and peskiness to the table, making each a potential real handful for opposing teams, and with great versatility.

It's kind of taking taking the pure skill of a KFC and an Ehlers, adding some Scheifele and Brandon Tanev for headiness and persnicketiness and then the hands, motor and heart 2 sizes too big of Matty P -- it's a pretty potent blend of attributes across two players.

Both players may be a bit hard for some coaches to categorize -- skilled, forecheckers, puckhounds, smaller, feisty -- but are also easy for fans to love. I think they'll be a big part of the next chapter and should fit in well with our other young 'uns on the rise.

Exciting times ahead.

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

I tend to agree with @surixon about Perfetti.

I think his style of play doesn't agree with people. He wins with his brain, it's harder to see then guys like Barron or Gus. With them you know what they do, skate hard, be physical etc. Cole does the little things, good positioning, short area passes. He is also just miles better offensively than either of them.

He has shown chemistry with Namestnikov and I think a 4th line with those two is better than any other option tbh.

That being said, we all want the Jets to win. I hope whatever Bones does works out best for the Jets.

 

[Gm0ney]

Yeah was it 2019 we lost Buff, Trouba, Myers, and Chairot (not that I considered Chairot much of a loss)? All in one year? That's an emergency situation, and if your eye was keen enough to see how Maurice changed his strategy in response to our weakened D (which doesn't surprise me based on your posts), cool.

So yeah, after that we had what - Beauleau, Poolman, Kulikov. Maybe other names I'm forgetting. That was bad.

But all I would say is that the Jets D-core since then hasn't exactly been celebrated as top notch on paper, either. Was anyone around the league looking at the addition of Dillon, Schmidt, Pionk, or even Demelo (who actually is great but only Jets fans seem to know that) as a rock-solid D-core? Samberg?

Maybe our d core looks as good as it does is because of Bones.

Getting rid of Huddy was a big improvement.

 

[JetsUK]

Bleacher Report is basically fan fiction. I wouldn't consider anyone who "writes" for them an expert

He also made it into #10 on The Athletic's list in 2020 (Trouba was 8th).

So the idea that Josh was a negative value contract was noticeable and widespread round the league for a few years.

By 2023, of course, he's among the best. Go figure.

NHL's worst contracts: 2020 edition

A look at the 10 contracts that add up the least value related to cost, along with some honourable mentions.

theathletic.com

10. Josh Morrissey, WPG​

Contract: $6.25M x eight years
Surplus Value: -$34.9M
Positive Value Probability: 9.7 percent

 

[DRW204]

He also made it into #10 on The Athletic's list in 2020 (Trouba was 8th).

So the idea that Josh was a negative value contract was noticeable and widespread round the league for a few years.

By 2023, of course, he's among the best. Go figure.

NHL's worst contracts: 2020 edition

A look at the 10 contracts that add up the least value related to cost, along with some honourable mentions.

theathletic.com

10. Josh Morrissey, WPG​

Contract: $6.25M x eight years
Surplus Value: -$34.9M
Positive Value Probability: 9.7 percent

It's like, it's a ranking or rating of a player at a specific point of time. Who would've thought? He was V bad for a couple years and now is v good, and ppl commented on both. I'm not sure why folks treat this as some crazy discovery.

I tend to agree with @surixon about Perfetti.

I think his style of play doesn't agree with people. He wins with his brain, it's harder to see then guys like Barron or Gus. With them you know what they do, skate hard, be physical etc. Cole does the little things, good positioning, short area passes. He is also just miles better offensively than either of them.

He has shown chemistry with Namestnikov and I think a 4th line with those two is better than any other option tbh.

That being said, we all want the Jets to win. I hope whatever Bones does works out best for the Jets.

Agreed. Namestnikov since the tdl has been V good in the 4th line role. Perfetti would add some additional offensive punch.

 

[DRW204]

I've seen this rationalization a number of times from you (Surprise surprise) and even use Crosby as an example.

Have either kc, Crosby, scheifele or PLD gone 20+ games without a goal and couple assists in that time span in those respective years.

Those players are also some of the top producers on their teams at the time and add way more to the team than Perfetti (duhhh) that's why they stay.

I hear you but all players slump at times. I mean Mark recently had a stretch of 3 points and a -6 in 10 games. I get he's more established but we've seen plenty of players like KC, Dubois etc slump really bad and see no repricussions for it. I just don't get why coaches feel they can treat younger players vastly different then older ones. I mean what does it prove.

Anyways if we make a deep run and I am hoping we do, everyone will need to be a part of it.

 

[Gm0ney]

Most of your views are fine , better than fine actually, i just think the infatuation with Perfetti is a little over the top. I noticed that you didn't post much since Perfetti was pulled from the lineup, now you could have been too busy to post but sometimes it seems like you like Perfetti better than the Winnipeg Jets. Keep posting because you have good thoughts .

I'm trying to think of another 19-goal player who's being healthy scratched by a team in the playoffs.

Here are all the 20-19-18 goal scorers on playoff teams:
Byfield LAK
Garland VAN
Cirelli TBL
Foegele EDM
Bennet FLA
Lee NYI
Perfetti WPG
Svechnikov CAR
DeBrusk BOS
Barbashev VGK
Drouin COL
Nugent-Hopkins EDM
Niederreiter WPG
McMichael WSH
Bouchard EDM
Mittelstadt COL
Frederic BOS
Novak NSH
Joshua VAN
Wilson WSH

Perfetti's the only health scratch I see on there.

 

[DRW204]

I'm trying to think of another 19-goal player who's being healthy scratched by a team in the playoffs.

Here are all the 20-19-18 goal scorers on playoff teams:
Byfield LAK
Garland VAN
Cirelli TBL
Foegele EDM
Bennet FLA
Lee NYI
Perfetti WPG
Svechnikov CAR
DeBrusk BOS
Barbashev VGK
Drouin COL
Nugent-Hopkins EDM
Niederreiter WPG
McMichael WSH
Bouchard EDM
Mittelstadt COL
Frederic BOS
Novak NSH
Joshua VAN
Wilson WSH

Perfetti's the only health scratch I see on there.

He's one of our best 12 Fwds. IMO you find a way on to the lineup.

Iafallo/Barron-names-perfetti is a solid looking like.

17-18 wasn't it Perreault-Little-Roslovic? Like it's fully possible to have a bit more of an offensive minded fwd down there.

 

[Inanna]

We not only beat the Canucks but we also finished the season ahead of them. Doubly sweet when you have family in Vancouver and some of them are rabid Canucks fans.

But what's with this weather? A couple of weeks ago I grabbed half an hour of balcony tanning and this morning I'm scraping snow off the car. Unreal! I didn't realize that the playoff whiteout tradition actually involves real snow.

Fingers crossed that we get sunshine and (some) warmth for Sunday afternoon and evening.

 

[TS Quint]

well, the goal is to try and find things that do explain why things are happening on the ice. The people working on analytics aren't dummies right? I mean we can come up with what we think might be issues with the metrics they are coming up with, but there's a pretty good chance they've already come up with those same issues and looked at them in relation to the metrics and determined the impact those issues may or may not have on the validity of a given metric. It's not like any of us here are the only people smart enough to think "hey you need guys willing to do the dirty work" to win.

No. You get results. They don’t explain why. There is always a limitation on going by results of 10 skaters and applying it to one. Stat guys and people who believe in them are over inflating their value of the stats and themselves.

This is why we get stat reputable guys saying silly things like “free Petan” “free Postma”.

 

[Jet]

This discussion did not go the way internet discussions are supposed to go!

Aren't we supposed to yell, shake our fists and then block each other?

2020-21 Morrissey played nearly half his minutes with Tucker Poolman.
2021-22 Morrissey played nearly half his minutes with Dylan DeMelo.
2022-23 Morrissey played nearly half his minutes with Dylan DeMelo.
2023-24 Morrissey played 75% of his minutes with Dylan DeMelo.

DeMelo is an ideal partner for Morrissey.

I could see Miller filling in that role nicely.

Small sample but I think they play similar games but I love that Miller has a bomb.

 

[SensibleGuy]

No. You get results. They don’t explain why. There is always a limitation on going by results of 10 skaters and applying it to one. Stat guys and people who believe in them are over inflating their value of the stats and themselves.

This is why we get stat reputable guys saying silly things like “free Petan” “free Postma”.

I'm not really referring to what gets said here on the forums. I'm just talking about metrics themselves. Something explains the results that you get right? There's reasons for teams to be better than other teams. We can look at what happens on the ice and think there's a guy running around throwing big hits and maybe that's the guy who is getting things done or maybe he's just throwing hits and accomplishing nothing. And maybe there's other guys who don't seem to be doing much but when you actually look at the data it turns out that when those guys are on the ice the puck is almost always in the other teams end of the rink where the shooters can do things with it like scoring goals. I just think there's value in trying to look beyond the surface of what we think we see...

 

[Gm0ney]

Serious question. Did James Wright have good metrics? Because if he did I would push back on the phrase "actually accomplished".

Wright was terrible any way you slice it. He played 800 minutes at 5v5 in 2 years with the Jets and was 521st in CF%, 544th in GF%, and 520th in xGF% (out of 637 players in the league with 500+ TOI. That's the 17th percentile). He was an okay penalty killer though...but not so great as to justify his spot in the lineup.

 

[ello]

re: Toffoli, he has 18 goals in in 88 career playoff games. That's like a 16 goal pace over a full 82 game schedule. Also 9 in his last 41 so its not really a skewed sample size, he's just generally been unproductive in playoffs.

I'm sure his poise will come in handy at times, but I'd honestly be very willing to slot him down the lineup and move Perfetti up at some point

 

[Gm0ney]

I could see Miller filling in that role nicely.

Small sample but I think they play similar games but I love that Miller has a bomb.

My first choice would be to bring DeMelo back on a reasonable deal. Miller could be Plan B...but considering his deployment, they seem to view him as a 7th defenseman.

 

[WolfHouse]

What a bizarre thread with playoffs starting in two days

 

[SensibleGuy]

What a bizarre thread with playoffs starting in two days

oh right!

Go JETS GO!!!

 

[Jet]

My first choice would be to bring DeMelo back on a reasonable deal. Miller could be Plan B...but considering his deployment, they seem to view him as a 7th defenseman.

Oh yeah, absolutely - me too

 

[TS Quint]

I'm not really referring to what gets said here on the forums. I'm just talking about metrics themselves. Something explains the results that you get right? There's reasons for teams to be better than other teams. We can look at what happens on the ice and think there's a guy running around throwing big hits and maybe that's the guy who is getting things done or maybe he's just throwing hits and accomplishing nothing. And maybe there's other guys who don't seem to be doing much but when you actually look at the data it turns out that when those guys are on the ice the puck is almost always in the other teams end of the rink where the shooters can do things with it like scoring goals. I just think there's value in trying to look beyond the surface of what we think we see...

I’m not saying there is no value. I’m saying it’s overstated by many and used poorly by most.

I think when teams use their analytics they will start with a specific question or situation and look for stats the specifically feed into that question or situation. It’s not just well the puck is in the other end according to the shot clock, therefore player good. That's just a step a head of +/-. There is too much garbage input to call that accurate for each specific player. It might give you an idea but there is a lot of room for error.

 

[Adam da bomb]

What confuses the Gus situation is names. Unskilled 4th line traditional 4th line Gus over perfetti makes sense. But with the way perfetti is playing they should have not brought in toffoli and kept their draft capital for the future.

 

[scelaton]

sorry, computer messed up, will try again later.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I think of he and Lambert as a pair of peak Perraults.

Different skill sets, but each brings a really interesting mix of speed, smarts, skill, will and peskiness to the table, making each a potential real handful for opposing teams, and with great versatility.

It's kind of taking taking the pure skill of a KFC and an Ehlers, adding some Scheifele and Brandon Tanev for headiness and persnicketiness and then the hands, motor and heart 2 sizes too big of Matty P -- it's a pretty potent blend of attributes across two players.

Both players may be a bit hard for some coaches to categorize -- skilled, forecheckers, puckhounds, smaller, feisty -- but are also easy for fans to love. I think they'll be a big part of the next chapter and should fit in well with our other young 'uns on the rise.

Exciting times ahead.

I’d prefer motor 2 way of tanev with skill and offensive of Ehlers.

 

[surixon]

OK, I'm not trying to be a dick (for a change), but of you didn't have numbers and metrics, how would ypu contrast Cole's game vs say Barron or Gus based soley on watching them play?


There are tons of little plays that don't end up anywhere on a stats sheet, including advanced metrics. Board battles that get pucks out (or keep pucks in) that lead to line changes, smart puck management in danger zones, etc. For bottom six guys (especially 4th line guys), that's the stuff that coaches want them to be elite at. It's not their job to score, it's to be dependable where they're out there

Those little things are examples of what Gus has been doing surprisingly well this season. That said, his strengths don't belong in the top six because their role is different

Ok, I'll try to answer. Cole does those little things as well. My guess is they are more noticed on Gus because that is really all he brings to the table whereas Cole is more counted on the score.

You talk about safe zone exits and wnsuring pucks get out. That data is tracked by Garrett and both Perfetti and Gus are tied for second best among forwards in the team with an 11% zone exit failure rate. Which means both are very good at ensuring the puck safely gets out of the zone. We have seen a number of examples of this by Cole. Just last week he smartly blocks out the opposition dmen and ties up his stick. It allows DeMelo's outlet to get by setting up a two on one in which Connor scores.

Cole also anticipates the play really well in the dzone. That was seen perfectly on his en goal last night. He read the play, jumped the route and put the game away. There are countless other times where he's supporting the d well and quickly recognizes danger and grabs loose pucks infront of our net and safety gets it out.

To be fair Gus does all this as well.

I get that this org doesn't have the best track record when it comes to developing rounded skilled players. All of Scheifele, KC, Laine, Roslovic and Ehlers range from mediocre to downright awful in their end which may cloud some judgement. But after 150 or so games of being consistently among the best on the team in goal prevention Cole is clearly doing something right.

This org had its best ever run when they had Little and Perrault on the fourth line. Skill that could be responsible in their end. That is what I see as possible with Perfetti, Namestnikov and Iafallo.

I guess I just view roster building differently. All the multiple cup winning teams had skill in the bottom 6. Kessel and Bonnio in Pittsburgh, Gourde and Johnson in Tampa. Richard's in LA etc.