Salary Cap: Jets 2019: roster and cap situation

[Adam da bomb]

I don’t think the Jets would be paying 9M+ for a contract that starts when Wheeler is 33 years old.

Wheeler has the opportunity to be a long-term captain of a team that will be elite for the next few years. I guess he can give that up and be an Andrew Ladd and get more compensation with some dud team.

Yep, I agree. I said happy under 9 mil. So 8.75m is fine. But, I could be wrong.

 

[Whileee]

I agree. After the playoffs will be a great time to trade him.

Any forward paid more than 2 mil should be able to justify their pay with points/60. Competent pk'ers can be found for less.

Lowry near 2 points/60. Not many Jets forwards higher, so...

 

[Maukkis]

I agree. After the playoffs will be a great time to trade him.

Any forward paid more than 2 mil should be able to justify their pay with points/60. Competent pk'ers can be found for less.

Out of our regulars, Lowry is fifth in ES P/60 with 2.19. Moreover, saying that Lowry is just a competent PKer is hardly giving him enough credit for what he does on the ice. This year, he has been one of the very best defensive forwards in the entire league.

When it comes to our depth, Lowry is a much bigger factor than most even realise.

 

[10Ducky10]

KC and Morrissey get bridged.
Offer Wheeler 7.5m over 5 or trade him.
Lowry will not be traded.
Trouba gets offered 7m x 5 years.
Helle gets 4.75m x 5 years.
MP is traded after the 18-19 season.
I really don't know what to say about Laine but I wouldn't give him 10m a year.

 

[Upperdeckjet]

I do not see Trouba as a 7 million dollar defenseman. For me, that would not be good value.

 

[cbcwpg]

Win the Cup and I don't care what we do with the roster and cap situation.

 

[jetsfan15]

I wouldn't sign Kyle Connor to a bridge deal. Right now, after his first (almost) full NHL season (76 games), he has 31 goals (57 points in total). His situation (stats wise) is somewhat similar to when Scheifele and Ehlers got their long-term extensions, which were bargains for the Jets in my view. Right now (i.e., after the end of this season) is the time to extend Connor long-term to something that will be team-friendly down the road (and "down the road" would likely be as early as next season if he improves on this year's numbers, which I'm positive he will).

The timing for a long-term extension couldn't really be better. It's low-risk, high reward from the Jets' perspective. We all know Connor's a great player who's on the fast-track to becoming a star. If you bridge him, you're likely looking at a 40-goal scorer who averages a point per game in 2 years... and THAT will be expensive to keep in 2 years. But if you sign him long-term to something similar to Scheifele & Ehlers, you keep another star player long-term without imposing a big burden on the cap.

 

[MrBoJangelz71]

My hope is Scheif’s contract keeps the others in check. It’s hard to ask for more than him, if you aren’t producing more than him. I believe this to have played out in Ehlers’ deal, when I am pretty sure his agent knew 6m was on the low end of any deal for his clients ability.

If we can do the following on the our cap:

Lowry: 3m x 5y
Armia: 1m x 3y
Tanev: 850 x 1y
Dano: 850 x 1y
Toby: 2.5 x 1y
Trouba: 6.5 x 6y
Morrissey: 3m x 1y
Poolman: 1m x 1y
Helly: 5m x 6y

That equates to just under 24m, which will require the cap ris about 5m, for those numbers to work.

Toby would be my first dispensable option,

 

[Adam da bomb]

My hope is Scheif’s contract keeps the others in check. It’s hard to ask for more than him, if you aren’t producing more than him. I believe this to have played out in Ehlers’ deal, when I am pretty sure his agent knew 6m was on the low end of any deal for his clients ability.

If we can do the following on the our cap:

Lowry: 3m x 5y
Armia: 1m x 3y
Tanev: 850 x 1y
Dano: 850 x 1y
Toby: 2.5 x 1y
Trouba: 6.5 x 6y
Morrissey: 3m x 1y
Poolman: 1m x 1y
Helly: 5m x 6y

That equates to just under 24m, which will require the cap ris about 5m, for those numbers to work.

Toby would be my first dispensable option,

No chance Armia signs that. Dano is gone.

 

[surixon]

My philosophy is that you lock up your core pieces long term and keep the complimentary players on short term deals. When you are in a situation like us with multiple potential core pieces positional importance is the defining factor in who you go long term with.

Positional importance:

1C
Top pairing dmen
1 G
Star Wingers

We already have our franchise C locked up long term on a steal of a deal but we do not have our top pairing (joMo and Trouba) locked up nor do we have our number 1 goalie locked up. Salary structure for 2019-20 below:

Forwards
Line	Left Wing	Center	Right Wing	Total
1	Connor, Kyle	Scheifele, Mark	Laine, Patrick
	3,500,000	6,125,000	8,500,000	18,125,000
2	Ehlers, Nick	Little, Brian	Wheeler, Blake
	6,000,000	5,291,666	7,500,000	18,791,666
3	Vesalainen, Kristian	Lowry, Adam	Roslovic, Jack
	1,106,666	3,500,000	1,106,666	5,713,332
4	Appelton, Mason	Copp, Andew	Tanev, Brandon
	758,333	2,000,000	1,000,000	3,758,333
Extras	Extra 1	Extra 2
	800,000	800,000		1,600,000
Froward total				47,988,331
Defense
Pair	Left Defense	Right Defense
1	Morrissey, Josh	Trouba, Jacob
	5,000,000	6,500,000		11,500,000
2	Niku, Sami	Byfuglien, Dustin
	916,667	7,600,000		8,516,667
3	Kulikov, Dmitry	Poolman, Tucker
	4,333,333	1,200,000		5,533,333
Extras	Extra 1
	1,200,000			1,200,000
Defense Total				26,750,000
Goalies	Starter	Backup
	Hellebuyck, Connor	Extra 1
	5,250,000	1,500,000		6,750,000
Grand Total				81,488,331
Estimated Cap Ceiling				83,000,000
Cap space remaining				1,511,669

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Contracts signed this summer and next:

Laine 7 at $8.5 million
JoMo 7 at $5 million
Trouba 6 years at $6.5 million
Wheeler 4 years at $7.5 million
Helle 4 years at $5.25 million
Lowry 4 years at $3.5 million
Connor 3 years at $3.5 million
Poolman 2 year at $1.2 million (Kid has 2 points in 25ish games so has zero leverage to demand more)
Tanev 2 years at $1 mllion
Copp 2 years at $2 million

Myers is traded for futures this summer and Perrault traded for futures the following summer

 

[Adam da bomb]

My philosophy is that you lock up your core pieces long term and keep the complimentary players on short term deals. When you are in a situation like us with multiple potential core pieces positional importance is the defining factor in who you go long term with.

Positional importance:

1C
Top pairing dmen
1 G
Star Wingers

We already have our franchise C locked up long term on a steal of a deal but we do not have our top pairing (joMo and Trouba) locked up nor do we have our number 1 goalie locked up. Salary structure for 2019-20 below:

Forwards
Line	Left Wing	Center	Right Wing	Total
1	Connor, Kyle	Scheifele, Mark	Laine, Patrick
	3,500,000	6,125,000	8,500,000	18,125,000
2	Ehlers, Nick	Little, Brian	Wheeler, Blake
	6,000,000	5,291,666	7,500,000	18,791,666
3	Vesalainen, Kristian	Lowry, Adam	Roslovic, Jack
	1,106,666	3,500,000	1,106,666	5,713,332
4	Appelton, Mason	Copp, Andew	Tanev, Brandon
	758,333	2,000,000	1,000,000	3,758,333
Extras	Extra 1	Extra 2
	800,000	800,000		1,600,000
Froward total				47,988,331
Defense
Pair	Left Defense	Right Defense
1	Morrissey, Josh	Trouba, Jacob
	5,000,000	6,500,000		11,500,000
2	Niku, Sami	Byfuglien, Dustin
	916,667	7,600,000		8,516,667
3	Kulikov, Dmitry	Poolman, Tucker
	4,333,333	1,200,000		5,533,333
Extras	Extra 1
	1,200,000			1,200,000
Defense Total				26,750,000
Goalies	Starter	Backup
	Hellebuyck, Connor	Extra 1
	5,250,000	1,500,000		6,750,000
Grand Total				81,488,331
Estimated Cap Ceiling				83,000,000
Cap space remaining				1,511,669

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Contracts signed this summer and next:

Laine 7 at $8.5 million
JoMo 7 at $5 million
Trouba 6 years at $6.5 million
Wheeler 4 years at $7.5 million
Helle 4 years at $5.25 million
Lowry 4 years at $3.5 million
Connor 3 years at $3.5 million
Poolman 2 year at $1.2 million (Kid has 2 points in 25ish games so has zero leverage to demand more)
Tanev 2 years at $1 mllion
Copp 2 years at $2 million

Myers is traded for futures this summer and Perrault traded for futures the following summer

I would be sad to bridge Connor and possibly lose him, but, that Roster you made is pretty darn good so can't really argue. We are eventually going to lose someone that everyone would hate to lose just the nature of the beast.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Contracts signed this summer and next:

Laine 7 at $8.5 million
JoMo 7 at $5 million
Trouba 6 years at $6.5 million
Wheeler 4 years at $7.5 million
Helle 4 years at $5.25 million
Lowry 4 years at $3.5 million
Connor 3 years at $3.5 million
Poolman 2 year at $1.2 million (Kid has 2 points in 25ish games so has zero leverage to demand more)
Tanev 2 years at $1 mllion
Copp 2 years at $2 million

Do you think Wheeler would sign a 5-6yr deal at $6.75 mil as sounds like Chevy wants to sign Wheeler till he's 40.

 

[surixon]

I would be sad to bridge Connor and possibly lose him, but, that Roster you made is pretty darn good so can't really argue. We are eventually going to lose someone that everyone would hate to lose just the nature of the beast.

We don't lose Connor with a three year bridge. What it does is it defers his big pay day to a point where Wheeler will only have one year remaining on his deal and we also wont have the Buff contract on the books. It gives Chevy a bit more flexibility.

 

[surixon]

I can't see someone as pragmatic as Chevy even contemplating signing someone until they are 40 no matter what he says to the public. But who knows, I myself would hate such a deal. Saving 1 to 1.5 million off his cap hit at the cost of a few additional years of term is a non starter for me with an aging vet. I like the Buff deal as a template for impact vets. Short term but high AAV.

 

[KingBogo]

We don't lose Connor with a three year bridge. What it does is it defers his big pay day to a point where Wheeler will only have one year remaining on his deal and we also wont have the Buff contract on the books. It gives Chevy a bit more flexibility.

I've been thinking for awhile that Chevy will need to go the bridge route to keep most of this team together.

 

[Eyeseeing]

While we bask in the pleasant glow of a top team heading to the playoffs, I have been thinking ahead to how the Jets will sustain their success in the longer term. In that regard, the medium to longer term future will have to unfold for the 2019 season in relation to the core of their roster and the salary cap. That's because that's when Laine's extension will kick in, and most of their other young core players will need to be extended.

So, instead of reading the newspaper on this "crisp" Saturday morning, I did a bit of quick scenario building using CapFriendly's GM tool, focusing on the roster and cap and contract situation for the 2019 season. This thread is your chance to comment, and to propose your scenarios and solutions to create a long-term contender in Winnipeg.

First, my three main assumptions:

1) Salary cap rises to $83M for 2019 (might be a bit conservative).
2) Trouba is willing to sign a long-term deal.
3) Jets are happy with most of their current young core of players.

With that in mind, it became clear that the Jets are not going to be able to retain all of their core vets. Also, their plethora of young players in the system make it impossible to retain all of them on the roster.

Decision 1: Right defense (trade Myers)

If Trouba is signed to a long-term deal, then the Jets will have a very difficult time keeping both Buff and Myers. I decided (somewhat reluctantly), that Myers needed to be traded (as early as this off-season).

Decision 2: Wingers (trade Perreault)

I really like Perreault, but really can't see how the Jets can keep him while re-signing the young players and keeping a solid D and G situation. I reluctantly decided to trade Perreault (probably after the 2018/19 season).

Decision 3: Young depth forwards

From a roster perspective, the Jets will likely need to jettison at least one and perhaps two of their young forward prospects, because of roster considerations. I decided to trade Dano (2018) and keep Petan.

In terms of key contracts, here is what I decided:

Laine - $9.5M x 8 years (he gets the franchise player extension. I think he might sign for a bit less)
Wheeler - $6.5M x 6 years (probably a bit too rich or long, but the Jets want him to keep driving the bus)
Trouba - $6.25M x 5 years (might be a bit low on the AAV, but he'll like the shorter term)
Hellebuyck - $6.0M x 8 years (he gets the franchise goalie contract - might be a bit rich)
Morrissey - $5.25M x 6 years (similar to Rielly)
Lowry - $3.5M x 5 years (tried to balance AAV and term)
Connor - $3.25M x 2 years (maybe a bit rich for a bridge, but if he scores 35 or so next year...)
Armia - $2.5M x 4 years (might be on the low side, so could adjust the term a bit)
Copp - $2.25M x 4 years (see Armia)
Poolman - $1.75M x 2 years (Jets might decide to go higher and longer with Poolman)

Key trades:

Myers (2018/19): 2019 1st and young D or good prospect D.
Perreault (2019 off-season): 2nd in 2019 and 3rd in 2020.
Dano (2018): 2019 3rd

Below is the roster, with a total cap hit of $82.96M.

Fire away!

View attachment 110919

Helle 8 years......

 

[surixon]

I've been thinking for awhile that Chevy will need to go the bridge route to keep most of this team together.

Bridging imo doesn't become an effective tool until 19-20 and beyond. We aren't in a crazy crunch next year so no sense bridging Morrissey as his bridge would only save us one year during cap constraint and open up a summer in 20-21 in which we would have to sign all of these promising RFA's:

Morrissey, Niku, Roslovic plus some depth guys like Poolman plus a Kulikov replacement with about 14 million in space to do it.

Plus I think this is also about as an ideal time to sign Morrissey as there will be. He has shown tremendous growth in his 2 seasons and has been able to handle the toughest minutes on the team. However the org has done a pretty nice job sandbagging his earning potential on a long term deal by keeping him off the PP. His ES production and production rates despite the very hard usage are very strong (He produced at a greater clip than Buff this past year for instance). He will explode offensively when he gets on the PP imo.

 

[KingBogo]

Bridging imo doesn't become an effective tool until 19-20 and beyond. We aren't in a crazy crunch next year so no sense bridging Morrissey as his bridge would only save us one year during cap constraint and open up a summer in 20-21 in which we would have to sign all of these promising RFA's:

Morrissey, Niku, Roslovic plus some depth guys like Poolman plus a Kulikov replacement with about 14 million in space to do it.

Plus I think this is also about as an ideal time to sign Morrissey as there will be. He has shown tremendous growth in his 2 seasons and has been able to handle the toughest minutes on the team. However the org has done a pretty nice job sandbagging his earning potential on a long term deal by keeping him off the PP. His ES production and production rates despite the very hard usage are very strong (He produced at a greater clip than Buff this past year for instance). He will explode offensively when he gets on the PP imo.

You make a good argument to sign Morrissey long term. You have him at 7 years at $5 M which seems a little team friendly. I think 7 years will be a bit higher AAV, or to keep at $5 M length will drop.

 

[surixon]

You make a good argument to sign Morrissey long term. You have him at 7 years at $5 M which seems a little team friendly. I think 7 years will be a bit higher AAV, or to keep at $5 M length will drop.

He hasn't produced the same offensive numbers as the 5.3 to 5.4 million per year crowd which is why I have him a bit lower but the rising cap may offset that.

 

[KingBogo]

He hasn't produced the same offensive numbers as the 5.3 to 5.4 million per year crowd which is why I have him a bit lower but the rising cap may offset that.

I hope you are right. I'm thing we will need to go north of $5 M on anything past 6 years.

 

[Blue Shakehead]

What comparables are people using to give Trouba more than $7M+? Its not happening. He will be lucky to get something that starts with a 6 imo. There are a lot of 22 year old defensemen whose resume's are as good or better and make in the 5-6 range (Jones, Linholm, Slavin, Rielly).

I would offer Trouba $5.5 x 6 years and Morrissey $5.5M x 8 years. If Trouba says 'no', bridge him and then trade him this summer or next.

Hellebuyck will be a tricky one. I don't want to pay him anything more than $5.5M.

Wheeler is probably going to take something like a $7.5M x 4 years or $7M x 5 years. The tough part about Wheeler is that we would have $15-16M tied up in #1 RWers. Does that make any sense or do you just defer to your franchise 19 year old unless Wheeler takes a team friendly deal. Tough spot, because he's our captain and a damn great one.

Laine will get $8-9M.

Little is going to have to start training like Wheeler and Scheifele in the summers if we have any hope of him living up to his contract. It looked a lot better of a deal in September than it does now. Little and Myers are the expendable ones at this point.

 

[10Ducky10]

What comparables are people using to give Trouba more than $7M+? Its not happening. He will be lucky to get something that starts with a 6 imo. There are a lot of 22 year old defensemen whose resume's are as good or better and make in the 5-6 range (Jones, Linholm, Slavin, Rielly).

I would offer Trouba $5.5 x 6 years and Morrissey $5.5M x 8 years. If Trouba says 'no', bridge him and then trade him this summer or next.

Hellebuyck will be a tricky one. I don't want to pay him anything more than $5.5M.

Wheeler is probably going to take something like a $7.5M x 4 years or $7M x 5 years. The tough part about Wheeler is that we would have $15-16M tied up in #1 RWers. Does that make any sense or do you just defer to your franchise 19 year old unless Wheeler takes a team friendly deal. Tough spot, because he's our captain and a damn great one.

Laine will get $8-9M.

Little is going to have to start training like Wheeler and Scheifele in the summers if we have any hope of him living up to his contract. It looked a lot better of a deal in September than it does now. Little and Myers are the expendable ones at this point.

If you don't think Trouba is going to make at least 6 million a year then I don't know what to say.

 

[Blue Shakehead]

If you don't think Trouba is going to make at least 6 million a year then I don't know what to say.

If you don't know what to say, maybe start by finding us some comparables that make $6-7M. Tell us what they did to get it and what Trouba has done to deserve it.

 

[CaptainChef]

My philosophy is that you lock up your core pieces long term and keep the complimentary players on short term deals. When you are in a situation like us with multiple potential core pieces positional importance is the defining factor in who you go long term with.

Positional importance:

1C
Top pairing dmen
1 G
Star Wingers

We already have our franchise C locked up long term on a steal of a deal but we do not have our top pairing (joMo and Trouba) locked up nor do we have our number 1 goalie locked up. Salary structure for 2019-20 below:

Forwards
Line	Left Wing	Center	Right Wing	Total
1	Connor, Kyle	Scheifele, Mark	Laine, Patrick
	3,500,000	6,125,000	8,500,000	18,125,000
2	Ehlers, Nick	Little, Brian	Wheeler, Blake
	6,000,000	5,291,666	7,500,000	18,791,666
3	Vesalainen, Kristian	Lowry, Adam	Roslovic, Jack
	1,106,666	3,500,000	1,106,666	5,713,332
4	Appelton, Mason	Copp, Andew	Tanev, Brandon
	758,333	2,000,000	1,000,000	3,758,333
Extras	Extra 1	Extra 2
	800,000	800,000		1,600,000
Froward total				47,988,331
Defense
Pair	Left Defense	Right Defense
1	Morrissey, Josh	Trouba, Jacob
	5,000,000	6,500,000		11,500,000
2	Niku, Sami	Byfuglien, Dustin
	916,667	7,600,000		8,516,667
3	Kulikov, Dmitry	Poolman, Tucker
	4,333,333	1,200,000		5,533,333
Extras	Extra 1
	1,200,000			1,200,000
Defense Total				26,750,000
Goalies	Starter	Backup
	Hellebuyck, Connor	Extra 1
	5,250,000	1,500,000		6,750,000
Grand Total				81,488,331
Estimated Cap Ceiling				83,000,000
Cap space remaining				1,511,669

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Contracts signed this summer and next:

Laine 7 at $8.5 million
JoMo 7 at $5 million
Trouba 6 years at $6.5 million
Wheeler 4 years at $7.5 million
Helle 4 years at $5.25 million
Lowry 4 years at $3.5 million
Connor 3 years at $3.5 million
Poolman 2 year at $1.2 million (Kid has 2 points in 25ish games so has zero leverage to demand more)
Tanev 2 years at $1 mllion
Copp 2 years at $2 million

Myers is traded for futures this summer and Perrault traded for futures the following summer

Haven't reviewed all proposed structures, but this makes sense. Would love to get Connor on a non-bridge but the way you explain it with him being bridged until Buff & maybe Wheeler are ready to fly the coop, I suppose that works. Laine longterm at 8.5 is going to take something akin to Schief's deal, but hey maybe he'll do that.

 

[surixon]

Haven't reviewed all proposed structures, but this makes sense. Would love to get Connor on a non-bridge but the way you explain it with him being bridged until Buff & maybe Wheeler are ready to fly the coop, I suppose that works. Laine longterm at 8.5 is going to take something akin to Schief's deal, but hey maybe he'll do that.

There is flexibility with 1.5 million in space to go 9 to 9.5 million with Laine if need be. I dropped the 8th year in order to try to get the AAV down below 9.

It will be interesting to see how Chevy approaches contracts this summer.