Buffalo Bills It's the Off-Season. Go.

[Husko]

Friends, I wrote a little piece about being a Bills fan, the magic of the NFL draft, and hope:

 

[truthbluth]

Audric Estime on a top 30 visit, not before the 4th round but hell yeah.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Mitchell is a lazy diabetic...

Glenn is a guard...

Allen is racist...

I believe nothing. We'll get the true story in a few years.

 

[truthbluth]

Mitchell is a lazy diabetic...

Glenn is a guard...

Allen is racist...

I believe nothing. We'll get the true story in a few years.

Could be. There are probably more stories of, "Johnny Manziel is off a lot of draft boards because of character issues," than smokescreens. For AD Mitchells ability, his production is an anomaly. What's trickling out now are legitimate explanations. And I'm sorry if I take that,
"Not on top of his meds," personally but I definitely do. Could be a smokescreen, but from what info I have, there's enough for me to take him off my meaningless draft board.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

I actually wonder if he doesn't. I feel like a lot of those guys fall further than folks expect, like Hyatt.

John Ross, DJ Chark, Hollywood Brown, Mecole Hardman, Andy Isabella, Henry Ruggs, Jalen Raegor, KJ Hamler, Elijah Moore, Rondale Moore, Jameson Williams, Tyquan Thornton - recent top 60 picks from the top of my head who were all over drafted primarily because of speed.

They have either been complete busts, or at best have not lived up to the expectations. Of these players - I'd guess Ross or Raegor are probably the closest comps to Worthy.

I don't know why you bought Hyatt up - he wasn't seriously being talked about as a locked in R1 pick, although he did drop further than expected.

If you're trying to use him as justification for drafting Worthy it's a weak arguement. He's not exactly tearing it up - just looking over that draft class I'd argue that JSN, Zay Flowers, Jordan Addison, Jayden Reed, Rashee Rice, Tank Dell, Josh Downs, Dontayvion Wicks & of course Puka Nacua all look like better players at this point.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

I'm always skeptical of negatives like this that come out so late in the process, though. Don't know the extent it's true and not being used to make him fall.

You have to take everything with a huge pinch of salt at this point.

Although i will say that there seems to be character concerns with him long before now. EG taking a lot of plays off when he's not being targeted. He strikes me as a diva type even if he isn't a complete head case. You'd have thought that this staff would have had more than enough of that having to deal with Diggs....

Mitchell is probably my favourite of the tier B WRs. But i wouldn't trade up to get him & there may well be other players i prefer even if he is available at #28.

 

[Husko]

John Ross, DJ Chark, Hollywood Brown, Mecole Hardman, Andy Isabella, Henry Ruggs, Jalen Raegor, KJ Hamler, Elijah Moore, Rondale Moore, Jameson Williams, Tyquan Thornton - recent top 60 picks from the top of my head who were all over drafted primarily because of speed.

They have either been complete busts, or at best have not lived up to the expectations. Of these players - I'd guess Ross or Raegor are probably the closest comps to Worthy.

I don't know why you bought Hyatt up - he wasn't seriously being talked about as a locked in R1 pick, although he did drop further than expected.

If you're trying to use him as justification for drafting Worthy it's a weak arguement. He's not exactly tearing it up - just looking over that draft class I'd argue that JSN, Zay Flowers, Jordan Addison, Jayden Reed, Rashee Rice, Tank Dell, Josh Downs, Dontayvion Wicks & of course Puka Nacua all look like better players at this point.

On the contrary, I don't want to draft Worthy (at least not in the first, but if the Bills do I'll trust their judgment). I was using Hyatt as an example of a guy that was being mocked as a first round pick and then fell hard, with the nfl evaluators not being fooled by his speed

 

[Rowley Birkin]

I'm working mocks now to try to get a feel for his range.

I'm using PFN. First one i ran had Verse fall to #28 which was perfect for this exercise. He was my pick there.

Four WR's were off the board at that point - most recently BTJ at #15 to Indy.

Mitchell went #30 to Baltimore, Coleman #32 to KC, McConkey #34 to NE, Worthy #43 to Atlanta.

I'd already decided beforehand that Legette was my guy & would make a move as soon as he was the highest ranked WR on the big board.

Traded #60 (300) & BUF '25 R2 (circa 185) for #44 (460).

Values are based on the Johnson chart, with the (presumably late) '25 R2 having equivalent value of a mid R3 pick this year & the team trading up needing to give up more value. Maybe we'd also get a day 3 '25 pick back in that deal?

What did you come up with?

I like this approach way more than trading up from #28.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Could be. There are probably more stories of, "Johnny Manziel is off a lot of draft boards because of character issues," than smokescreens. For AD Mitchells ability, his production is an anomaly. What's trickling out now are legitimate explanations. And I'm sorry if I take that,
"Not on top of his meds," personally but I definitely do. Could be a smokescreen, but from what info I have, there's enough for me to take him off my meaningless draft board.

I have a hard time believing media reports because the teams are so tight on info.

I knew the scouting report and worked a ton prior to the draft but no one saw the board until draft day. John Butler, Marv Levy, and the top scouts made the board.

Once I was in the draft area I wasn’t allowed out. So I knew who was medically out. But I had no one to tell, if I wanted to.

I'm using PFN. First one i ran had Verse fall to #28 which was perfect for this exercise. He was my pick there.

Four WR's were off the board at that point - most recently BTJ at #15 to Indy.

Mitchell went #30 to Baltimore, Coleman #32 to KC, McConkey #34 to NE, Worthy #43 to Atlanta.

I'd already decided beforehand that Legette was my guy & would make a move as soon as he was the highest ranked WR on the big board.

Traded #60 (300) & BUF '25 R2 (circa 185) for #44 (460).

Values are based on the Johnson chart, with the (presumably late) '25 R2 having equivalent value of a mid R3 pick this year & the team trading up needing to give up more value. Maybe we'd also get a day 3 '25 pick back in that deal?

What did you come up with?

I like this approach way more than trading up from #28.

I’m getting Worthy around 40 too but mostly through trade downs.

 

[SundherDome]

Projected trade: Bills trade picks Nos. 28, 133, 144 and a 2025 second-rounder to the Jaguars for No. 17

Value evaluation

Pick 17: 950

Bills trade package is worth:
28: 660
133: 39.5
144: 34
2025 2nd, with a mid-third round value: 190. With a mid 2nd round value: 420

My way: 923.5
@Jim Bob way: 1,154.5

Personally, if Beane is going to do this, I'd just trade 28 and 60 (960 value), allow yourself trade up room from the 4th round, and keep the 2025 picks. Or see if they would take the Athletic trade with a 2025 3rd instead of the 2nd.

1154 seems to be more reasonable as it would take an overpay to move up that much. A mid value third rounder is probably a good price.

 

[SundherDome]

Less chance of the GM (on either side) being there when it comes time to make that pick.

That is accurate for every GM. If your a GM on the hot seat, selling your first next year for the equivalent of a second round pick should get that seat even hotter.

 

[Dirty Dog]

Friends, I wrote a little piece about being a Bills fan, the magic of the NFL draft, and hope:

Great read. It’s always fun to see the common threads in people’s stories as bills fans

 

[Husko]

Great read. It’s always fun to see the common threads in people’s stories as bills fans

Thanks for reading! Appreciate it!

 

[Dirty Dog]

Thanks for reading! Appreciate it!

Also, the early 90s is the most comical time to be born as a buffalo sports fan. For a lot of reasons. The most Billsy generation

 

[Rowley Birkin]

I’m getting Worthy around 40 too but mostly through trade downs.

I could have picked Worthy instead of Legette during that exercise & it wouldn't have been much different. Worthy is higher on their big board so the cost to move up would have been a little more.

I just picked Legette because i like him a lot more & he was ranked further towards the middle of the tier. In reality we don't know how Beane & Co have their board by comparison.

It really depends who is there at #28. If an impact player like DeJean is still on the board I'd grab him & get my WR by trading up from #60, not down from #28. If the impact player at #28 isn't there, then trading down obviously makes more sense.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

Audric Estime on a top 30 visit, not before the 4th round but hell yeah.

Also met with both he & Brealon Allen at combine.

Would love one of them - but I'm not sure they will still be there much into day 3, if at all.

 

[truthbluth]

Also met with both he & Brealon Allen at combine.

Would love one of them - but I'm not sure they will still be there much into day 3, if at all.

Not a fan of Allen. He should be way more successful with his measurables. Estime does a lot with little. He's kind of the big back version of Devin Singletary. Great compliment to Cook. But you're right, seems unlikely to make it to 128.

 

[truthbluth]

I could have picked Worthy instead of Legette during that exercise & it wouldn't have been much different. Worthy is higher on their big board so the cost to move up would have been a little more.

I just picked Legette because i like him a lot more & he was ranked further towards the middle of the tier. In reality we don't know how Beane & Co have their board by comparison.

It really depends who is there at #28. If an impact player like DeJean is still on the board I'd grab him & get my WR by trading up from #60, not down from #28. If the impact player at #28 isn't there, then trading down obviously makes more sense.

I really dislike PFN's rankings at certain positions. I'm routinely getting players at 128 that might not be there at 60. That said, I traded down twice and ended up with 4 top 70 picks. Came away with McConkey, Kris Jenkins, Javon Bullard and Ricky Pearsall. Sing me up for that.

 

[Der Jaeger]

I could have picked Worthy instead of Legette during that exercise & it wouldn't have been much different. Worthy is higher on their big board so the cost to move up would have been a little more.

I just picked Legette because i like him a lot more & he was ranked further towards the middle of the tier. In reality we don't know how Beane & Co have their board by comparison.

It really depends who is there at #28. If an impact player like DeJean is still on the board I'd grab him & get my WR by trading up from #60, not down from #28. If the impact player at #28 isn't there, then trading down obviously makes more sense.

My favorite trade to get is 49 from Cincinnati. They send 49, 80, and 115 for 28. It really makes the Bills draft easy.

I really dislike PFN's rankings at certain positions. I'm routinely getting players at 128 that might not be there at 60. That said, I traded down twice and ended up with 4 top 70 picks. Came away with McConkey, Kris Jenkins, Javon Bullard and Ricky Pearsall. Sing me up for that.

I use PFN a bit and I just ignore players who get to picks they shouldn’t.

I’m a terrible singer.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

I really dislike PFN's rankings at certain positions. I'm routinely getting players at 128 that might not be there at 60. That said, I traded down twice and ended up with 4 top 70 picks. Came away with McConkey, Kris Jenkins, Javon Bullard and Ricky Pearsall. Sing me up for that.

I think PFN have the best tool especially since it's free - but exactly as you say - their BB rankings are usually a bit off for a handful of players & the CPU is far too generous when you are trading down. You just need to account for both of these things when using it.

Don't take players with later picks when they won't be available, just assume they will be off the board.

Make trades based on realistic pick value using a chart or past trades as a guide (as i did above) instead of taking whatever great deal CPU is offering.

 

[truthbluth]

I like the mock draft database tool because it uses consensus rankings. The trades are weird though. Similar to PFN you have to reject some too good to be true offers. I had one where KC offered basically their entire draft for 28, and they moved up to grab Kool aid. Other than that, it's a great tool.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

My favorite trade to get is 49 from Cincinnati. They send 49, 80, and 115 for 28. It really makes the Bills draft easy.

It's always difficult to predict trade downs because the other team trading up has to want a particular player at #28 that you do not want.

Johnson chart has 28 (660) for 49, 80, 115 (664) so the value there is spot on.

Again - for me it would depend on who is there at #28.

The other thing to consider is - if you do make that trade with Cincinnati you would then have to swing a number of other trades later in the draft to move up. They already have too many picks.

I'll play around with PFN tonight to see how it works.

 

[Jim Bob]

Projected trade: Bills trade picks Nos. 28, 133, 144 and a 2025 second-rounder to the Jaguars for No. 17

Value evaluation

Pick 17: 950

Bills trade package is worth:
28: 660
133: 39.5
144: 34
2025 2nd, with a mid-third round value: 190. With a mid 2nd round value: 420

My way: 923.5
@Jim Bob way: 1,154.5

Personally, if Beane is going to do this, I'd just trade 28 and 60 (960 value), allow yourself trade up room from the 4th round, and keep the 2025 picks. Or see if they would take the Athletic trade with a 2025 3rd instead of the 2nd.

My way devalues a future 2nd more, so not sure why my way has the Bills paying more.

 

[Jim Bob]

It

Just doesn't make sense why a GM would allow their high end pick to be devalued when trading with another GM.

Would you rather have $20 today or $20 a year from now?

You always have to pay more in future money for current money. GMs value draft picks in a similar way and devalue picks that they have to wait to utilize.

 

[Jim Bob]

I have a feeling that Elam is the guy that is the most likely to have a season in 2024 like Spencer Brown and Terrel Bernard had in 2023.