Speculation: Is this sustainable?

[jaffy27]

Looking at the Habs statistics, it is strange how we are 11-4-1 and among the leaders in the Eastern Conference. Here are some alarming stats:

Goals per game: 27th (2.25 gp)
Goals against per game: 16th (2.62 ga)
Goal differential: -2
PP%: 28th (7.1%)
PP opportunities: 29th
PK%: 8th (thank goodness)
Times shorthanded: 28th
Shots for per game: 27th (28.1)
Shots against per game: 22nd (31.4)

With Team stats like that we should be in the bottom half of the league. We are typically outshot, our PP sucks, we are one of the most penalized teams in the league and we have trouble scoring.... yet we are 11-4-1!

On the plus side we lead the league in FO% and Carey Price is a god.
On the plusser side, we have a ton of room for improvement.

Something's gotta give. Hopefully the Habs pick up the pace as it doesn't feel like we are as good as our record.

These numbers are not ideal there's no denying that, and you gotta believe we are gonna improve these numbers, they really can't get any worse and they shouldn't stay status quo either. I'm thinking that we will increase our position in all these statistical categories but will maintain same type of record...kind've hard to do better than a 11-4-1 record, guess time will tell

 

[CGG]

We're # 3 in times shorthanded and tied for last in the league in PP opportunities. That is what isn't sustainable. We'll have more PP's and fewer penalties to kill going forward. Eventually the PP will start clicking - 15% is woefully bad, we won't be worse than that at the end of the year. Right now we're at 7.1%. That won't last.

As others have said, we're doing fine 5 on 5, but we're basically -6 in power play goals. Once that sorts itself out the rest of the stats won't appear so bad.

Bourque is gone and we now have a 3rd line that can score, which is already paying dividends in the last few games.

Markov and Subban are still world class defensemen that will get better, or at least stop making 2 or 3 boneheaded plays each game. Clean that up and we'll look even better at even strength.

 

[MasterDecoy]

its like the reverse '12: good stats, bad results. now we get bad stats, good result

 

[CanadienShark]

You do realize the Sabres, the Canes and the Panthers are also in this league? We'd need to seriously dumb down the roster and it might still be too late.

You do realize that I said a late season collapse and "somehow" end up with it, right?

End up just outside the playoffs and pick J.Roy? Nothing wrong with that either.

Wouldn't complain, but I've got my eye on Hanifin.

 

[sharks9]

Some of those stats look worse than they'll be at the end of the year because of our last slump. Now it looks like the team is clicking and I bet those stats will improve over the coming games.

 

[CoupeStanley]

We've been blownout three times in a relatively small sample size.

The stats looks worse than the reality.

 

[ThaDevilGirl]

Are sustainable/unsustainable the new buzz words in hockey??

 

[Raimu]

As much as I agree there are some problems with this team : it is getting better. Powerplay needs to be solved big time though.

Seriously, last time this year if somebody told this board we'd be sitting in 4th at 11-4-1, and that Gionta, Gorges, Moen, Briere and Bourque would all be gone, I wouldn't expect so much negativity around the team. I think the only thing that would have made this place happier would be getting Marleau for DD or something.

 

[Burke the Legend]

If the team could get the PP even up to mediocre it could give a big shot in the arm to the overall goal production.

I think the shots for/against stats are also skewed by how many penalties the team takes. Our PP minus PK time differential is -20, #30 in league, almost double the -11 of #29. This is going to slant your shot stats, you don't take many on the PK, but get a lot against.

So the penalties, and non-existant PP are two exceptionally poor stats, there's a lot of room for improvement there.

 

[Sorinth]

Agreed..
If it was sustainable last year it is sustainable this year. We can all agree however that there has got to be a better way. The Carey Price effect has become Magical. They even picked up on it on Sports Net.
King Henry is still riding his Olympic Gold Medal today...

We can't get much worse in terms of negative stats and we are much better than what we are currently showing.

Last year before Vanek, we had one 10 game hot streak and were sub 500 for the rest of the season. So it wasn't sustainable last year.

 

[lamp9post]

I'm not defending the play because quite frankly, it has been terrible, but a couple of blowout losses can really skew the results here. Not a large enough sample to draw many conclusions at this point, if our play improves, sure it's sustainable, if it doesn't, no it's not.

Agreed.

I think it is much more likely that our league rankings in those particular criteria go UP rather than our overall record go down. I think our low standing in those areas is what is not sustainable (especially the PP) as opposed to our record.

We do have to play better though.

 

[Smokey Thompson]

Last year before Vanek, we had one 10 game hot streak and were sub 500 for the rest of the season. So it wasn't sustainable last year.

Our team is better at every position compared to last season.

 

[Captain Mountain]

If the team could get the PP even up to mediocre it could give a big shot in the arm to the overall goal production.

I think the shots for/against stats are also skewed by how many penalties the team takes. Our PP minus PK time differential is -20, #30 in league, almost double the -11 of #29. This is going to slant your shot stats, you don't take many on the PK, but get a lot against.

So the penalties, and non-existant PP are two exceptionally poor stats, there's a lot of room for improvement there.

Montreal's even strength shot and possession stats are also pretty bad. Especially when games are close.

 

[sharks9]

Last year before Vanek, we had one 10 game hot streak and were sub 500 for the rest of the season. So it wasn't sustainable last year.

And if you take away our worst 10-game stretch we looked pretty good!

 

[Burke the Legend]

Montreal's even strength shot and possession stats are also pretty bad. Especially when games are close.

Well that's nothing new, not so worried about that. They have been a counter-attacking team for a while now.

 

[Jabba11]

The Montreal Canadiens don't care about statistics! We ain't the Leafs

 

[Captain Mountain]

Well that's nothing new, not so worried about that. They have been a counter-attacking team for a while now.

Their numbers there were really, really good 2 years ago. It's also worrying because it's basically impossible to be a cup contender if your not a strong possession and even strength team.

 

[sharks9]

Their numbers there were really, really good 2 years ago. It's also worrying because it's basically impossible to be a cup contender if your not a strong possession and even strength team.

We're definitely better at ES so far this season, it's the PP that needs work.

 

[Brainiac]

I wouldn't be that upset if we had a late season collapse and somehow got a top 3 pick.

Seriously? We're 11-4-1 and some still think that tanking is an option?

This board never cease to amaze me.

 

[Sorinth]

And if you take away our worst 10-game stretch we looked pretty good!

The poster I quoted said our success last season despite bad underlying stats was sustainable. It wasn't, last season we played sub-500 hockey for the majority of the season. We were saved by a 10 game hot streak and acquiring Vanek.

After we acquired Vanek our underlying stats increased dramatically, so any success that followed can't be used to show that success with bad underlying stats is sustainable. Unless we acquire another Vanek it's far more likely that we will fall back to a .500 pace then maintain our current hot streak.

 

[CanadienShark]

Seriously? We're 11-4-1 and some still think that tanking is an option?

This board never cease to amaze me.

Notice the ?

I'm joking man around man - it's not happening. But honestly, if it did happen, I wouldn't be very upset.

 

[Stjonnypopo]

Shooting is a result of puck possession isn't it? Meaning that we need to have better possession of the puck in order to get more shots on net and score more goals.

 

[LaP]

Defensive stats are skewed by the 3 big losses we had (6-2, 5-0 and 7-1). It's minus 15 for 3 games. It means we are +13 in the other 13 games. The offensive stats are skewed by the awful PP.

We are not as bad as people say we are. PP will improve I'm confident. With Pacman, Subban et Markov one day or another things will work again. Our defense will stay average and we wont win the cup but we are heading in the right direction our best players are still young let's hope guys like Tinordi, Beaulieu, McCarron, DLR and Sherback will develop into good NHL players.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Shooting is a result of puck possession isn't it? Meaning that we need to have better possession of the puck in order to get more shots on net and score more goals.

When you possess the puck more, you take more shots and allow fewer shots. Offensively, it means more goals. Defensively, it means the other team can't score when you have the puck.

The Habs dump and chase, essentially giving up the puck in the defensive or neutral without pressure for the chance of maybe getting the puck in the offensive zone. What happens though is that you just give up the puck for no reason (either by icing it, losing it in a boards battle or having the puck recovered by a player on the opposing team) and play on your heels.

Teams that carry the puck generally do better than teams that counterattack because they set the tone and set the pace instead of waiting for opponents to make a mistake. To pull off a dump and chase you need to have big, strong forwards who can grind out on the boards.

 

[kovaless]

You do realize the Sabres, the Canes and the Panthers are also in this league? We'd need to seriously dumb down the roster and it might still be too late.

don't forget the maple leafs