Is this our best prospect pool ever?

[Frenzy31]

Thallis and I were having a debate on the best Blues prospect pool in their history.

late 2000’s (Petro, EJ, Oshie, Perron, Eller, Cole, Berglund,)

2023 (Dvorsky, Snuggs, Bolduc, Neighbors, Dean, Stenberg, Lindstein)

Petro probably tips it towards the 2010 pool, but I think the 2023 forward group will be better. I know it’s hard to compare, because we are projecting this current pool. But there could also be some surprises in this current pool too such as Buchinger, Loof, Pekarcik etc.

I tend to look at it more like this - and I put in 1st rounders that didn't pan out because at the time, we would have rated them higher.

1st Rebuild Core
EJ, Oshie, Perron, Eller, Cole, Berglund, Backes, Stempniak, Polak, Schwarz, Belle, Bishop (2003 - 2007)

2nd Rebuild Core - Cup
Pie, Schwartz, Tarasenko, Allen, Lehtera, Rattie, Jaskin, Edmundson, Binnington, Schmaltz, MacEachern, Parayko, (2008 - 2012) (I feel like this core needs to be separate from Oshie's due to roles in the cup team).

3rd Core
Fabbri, Barb, Walman, Husso, Blais, Dunn, Thompson, Thomas, Kostin, Toropchenko, Kyrou, Bock, Perunovich, Hofer, McGing, Tucker, Alexandrov

4th Core
Nieghbors, Kessel, Bolduc, Snuggerud (Vorobyov), Kaskimaki, Buchinger, Dvorsky, Stenberg, Lindstein, Stancl, Pekarcik (still options for busts)


Interesting notes:
1st and 2nd Cores had at least 1 1st rounders that were d. 3rd core has no 1st round D which I think shows in the system.

4th Core has 1, so far.

 

[joe galiba]

76 - Federko, Sutter, Liut
77 - Currie
78 - Babych, MacLean
79 - Mullen, Turnbull, Reeds

 

[ezcreepin]

Bold prediction, but I can see why you're optimistic. This is why I don't stress too much about the team's performance because most things balance out in life. We all want to have a Cup contending team, but when we aren't so good we can at least get some exciting prospects for the future. It's pretty impressive to get so many quality players with only one lottery pick to work with and this goes back to guys like Thomas, Kyrou, Parayko as well. Neighbours is looking like a real steal at 26 and so is Snuggles at 23.

It sucked seeing the Cup team fall apart and guys like ROR and Tarasenko leave town, but the flip side was being able to get Lindstein and Stenberg so I think long term it's gonna work out just fine.

In context, I think our current prospect pool is head and shoulders better than any group that I've seen since I started watching religiously in 2008. There were plenty of guys I was excited to see from juniors, AHL, KHL, Sweden, etc, but this group has a lot of "elite" young talent that are just now entering in their respective pro seasons OR D+1 seasons.

I remember being excited about Rattie, McRae, Eller, Lindbohm, among others, but there were only a handful that really made a big impact on the NHL roster. For me, this group of prospects right now feels like an NHL 24 scenario where you traded all your good players and drafted like 20 times in two years and found a bunch of top 6/elite players and now you're trying to figure out where you're going to play them when they come up lmao. Having said that, there's plenty of opportunity for them to bust, but it's looking really good right now for us.

 

[Majorityof1]

I just bought a lottery ticket. It's my best chance to become insanely rich yet. It's a much better chance than all those tickets I scratched off and didn't win. I don't have to worry about money as long as I have this unscathed ticket in my pocket.

 

[Thallis]

In context, I think our current prospect pool is head and shoulders better than any group that I've seen since I started watching religiously in 2008. There were plenty of guys I was excited to see from juniors, AHL, KHL, Sweden, etc, but this group has a lot of "elite" young talent that are just now entering in their respective pro seasons OR D+1 seasons.

I remember being excited about Rattie, McRae, Eller, Lindbohm, among others, but there were only a handful that really made a big impact on the NHL roster. For me, this group of prospects right now feels like an NHL 24 scenario where you traded all your good players and drafted like 20 times in two years and found a bunch of top 6/elite players and now you're trying to figure out where you're going to play them when they come up lmao. Having said that, there's plenty of opportunity for them to bust, but it's looking really good right now for us.

The benefit of hindsight is a hell of a drug. It's really easy to name names in your system and imagine what happens if they all hit, Every team in the league can do that. The reality is what we imagine and what happens is not the case. Frankly I think some of the guys we're excited about are in the same tier of prospect as these guys and we don't want to see that because of how it ended up for them. Frankly I don't know if the top end talent in our system compares to even recent prospects like Dunn, Thomas, or Kyrou, while the depth and breadth of positions are definitely worse than previous years.

 

[Frenzy31]

The benefit of hindsight is a hell of a drug. It's really easy to name names in your system and imagine what happens if they all hit, Every team in the league can do that. The reality is what we imagine and what happens is not the case. Frankly I think some of the guys we're excited about are in the same tier of prospect as these guys and we don't want to see that because of how it ended up for them. Frankly I don't know if the top end talent in our system compares to even recent prospects like Dunn, Thomas, or Kyrou, while the depth and breadth of positions are definitely worse than previous years.

I completely disagree with this. Thomas was a late first, Kyrou and Dunn were early 2nds. No one knew when they were drafted that we had a point per game center, top line winger and a solid dman. We were hoping for a 1st line forward and a 1 b center and a 2nd pairing guy. They really develop well, but at the time, we didn't think they would have done as well as they have.

Hell, Stenberg and Lindstein have been more productive in the WJC then either Kyrou or Dunn in their D1 season (as neither made the Canadian team). Dvo is producing about the same rate that Thomas did in the OHL.

We don't know what we have yet, but the initial returns seem very solid. This doesn't include Neighbor, Bolduc, etc.

 

[Thallis]

I completely disagree with this. Thomas was a late first, Kyrou and Dunn were early 2nds. No one knew when they were drafted that we had a point per game center, top line winger and a solid dman. We were hoping for a 1st line forward and a 1 b center and a 2nd pairing guy. They really develop well, but at the time, we didn't think they would have done as well as they have.

Hell, Stenberg and Lindstein have been more productive in the WJC then either Kyrou or Dunn in their D1 season (as neither made the Canadian team). Dvo is producing about the same rate that Thomas did in the OHL.

We don't know what we have yet, but the initial returns seem very solid. This doesn't include Neighbor, Bolduc, etc.

True, but that's only if you take it from when they are drafted. In a similar vein, our expectations on Snuggerud have been raised by his explosion at the start of his D+1. Dunn saw decent success at the Jr level and really started pushing through at the AHL level. Kyrou was a boom or bust prospect who really started to push through in his D+1 and began being recognized as one of the best skaters in the world, indicating that he was trending towards boom. Thomas, especially in his D+1 looked like he would be a very good player and he made the Blues the next season. As time progresses, our expectations shift based on the whole body of work made by that prospect. The whole bodies of work for our guys right now are not as impressive or projectable (IMO, of course) as these players when they were about to break into the league.

Is that fair? Not really since we're comparing knowns to unknowns, but there's no 1:1 target possible. It's the same way that works against previous pools because we know Eller becomes nothing more than a 3rd liner and Jaskin & Rattie are too slow for the NHL.

 

[Frenzy31]

True, but that's only if you take it from when they are drafted. In a similar vein, our expectations on Snuggerud have been raised by his explosion at the start of his D+1. Dunn saw decent success at the Jr level and really started pushing through at the AHL level. Kyrou was a boom or bust prospect who really started to push through in his D+1 and began being recognized as one of the best skaters in the world, indicating that he was trending towards boom. Thomas, especially in his D+1 looked like he would be a very good player and he made the Blues the next season. As time progresses, our expectations shift based on the whole body of work made by that prospect. The whole bodies of work for our guys right now are not as impressive or projectable (IMO, of course) as these players when they were about to break into the league.

Is that fair? Not really since we're comparing knowns to unknowns, but there's no 1:1 target possible. It's the same way that works against previous pools because we know Eller becomes nothing more than a 3rd liner and Jaskin & Rattie are too slow for the NHL.

Why do you feel they are not as impressive? I feel very strongly that Stenberg and Lindstien have solid season so far and exceed expectations - I would say they both appear better then either Kyrou and Dunn at this point in their development.

I understand why fans feel disappointed in Dvo after the SHL. However, If he had started the year in the OHL (like Thomas), I don't think anyone would be upset about his production or feel he was a bit of a let down. That really colored a lot of fans perspective on him. Personally, I think he really set himself up for failure going to the SHL (moving leagues). But we were able to get him to the OHL and so we haven't lost a season yet.

Many fans here were willing to toss Neighbors out the door and waisted pick, yet he has been solid for the Blues. Too quick to throw things away.

We have to give it time to determine if what we have. Too many fans are digging into one side or the other just based on team view right now.

 

[Mike Liut]

and don’t forget how Petro looked after his 8 game stint for the Blues. He looked like a complete bust.

 

[Blueston]

True, but that's only if you take it from when they are drafted. In a similar vein, our expectations on Snuggerud have been raised by his explosion at the start of his D+1. Dunn saw decent success at the Jr level and really started pushing through at the AHL level. Kyrou was a boom or bust prospect who really started to push through in his D+1 and began being recognized as one of the best skaters in the world, indicating that he was trending towards boom. Thomas, especially in his D+1 looked like he would be a very good player and he made the Blues the next season. As time progresses, our expectations shift based on the whole body of work made by that prospect. The whole bodies of work for our guys right now are not as impressive or projectable (IMO, of course) as these players when they were about to break into the league.

Is that fair? Not really since we're comparing knowns to unknowns, but there's no 1:1 target possible. It's the same way that works against previous pools because we know Eller becomes nothing more than a 3rd liner and Jaskin & Rattie are too slow for the NHL.

admittedly our expectations have been raised because we seem to have generally drafted well, which could mean that we are good at drafting or could mean that we are due to revert to mean. but you do raise a point that we too often overlook, that kyrou and thomas (and dunn last year) all have reached a level above what we could have (or at least should have) reasonably expected when we drafted them. and we don't really know how good our current crop of prospects will be.

it could turn out that both are true. that they will collectively be as good as we reasonably thought when we drafted them and nobody reaches heights where thomas is now at. for now, we know that we have intriguing and seemingly deep group of forward prospects and a seemingly shallower group on d.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

I still think Buchinger is gonna surprise us. His four way mobility is great, he's decent defensively in the OHL and has some good IQ, he is producing at a higher rate than Dunn did every year in Juniors. The biggest issue with Buchinger is sometimes he gets a little too aggressive offensively.

 

[Thallis]

Why do you feel they are not as impressive? I feel very strongly that Stenberg and Lindstien have solid season so far and exceed expectations - I would say they both appear better then either Kyrou and Dunn at this point in their development.

I understand why fans feel disappointed in Dvo after the SHL. However, If he had started the year in the OHL (like Thomas), I don't think anyone would be upset about his production or feel he was a bit of a let down. That really colored a lot of fans perspective on him. Personally, I think he really set himself up for failure going to the SHL (moving leagues). But we were able to get him to the OHL and so we haven't lost a season yet.

Many fans here were willing to toss Neighbors out the door and waisted pick, yet he has been solid for the Blues. Too quick to throw things away.

We have to give it time to determine if what we have. Too many fans are digging into one side or the other just based on team view right now.

I feel they have met expectations rather than exceeded them. They're contributing about what I would expect them to considering their respective leagues, with them being standouts for this tournament. Their point totals seem to be about in line for guys with decent NHL potential for their age and compared to their peers. Granted, I'm still not super familiar with the Swedish leagues so I'm open to the possibility of something and being wrong here.

Also fun note, Rattie is still the SHL league leader in scoring

 

[Ted Hoffman]

I still think Buchinger is gonna surprise us. His four way mobility is great, he's decent defensively in the OHL and has some good IQ, he is producing at a higher rate than Dunn did every year in Juniors. The biggest issue with Buchinger is sometimes he gets a little too aggressive offensively.

Every time I hear about production in juniors and how it's potentially some indicator of future success, I want to point out that Jamie Rivers f***ing tore it up in the OHL and we know how his career went. I also want to point out that Layne Ulmer was a 40-goal guy the year he was drafted (1999, 7th round by Ottawa) and the following 2 years he was 50-54-104 and 63-56-119, and after 5 years in the minors and getting to play 1 NHL game he spent the rest of his playing career in Europe. And then I start on a trip down memory lane about countless other guys who put up great stats in college or juniors and couldn't cut it in the pros.

Production is nice. Skills that will translate to the NHL are even better.

 

[LetsGoBooze]

If/Once we add another top 10 prospect this next draft it could become a real debate. As of now, i still give it to other pools based on top end talent. That being said, i love the direction were headed, and do think we'll have a legit shot at turning it around in a quick 3 year re-tool. Screw the Chicago-style 5+ year rebuild. We just need to not cut any corners, retain our young talent, and make both of our next two years 1st round picks.

 

[Mike Liut]

What are the chances that Dvo and Snuggs turn out to be better than Thomas and Kyrou? I wouldn’t discount that.

 

[LetsGoBooze]

What are the chances that Dvo and Snuggs turn out to be better than Thomas and Kyrou? I wouldn’t discount that.

Stylistically too different to really compare apples to apples. I would be shocked if either prospect turns into a better playmaker than Thomas, and even with all his warts, Kyrou has a 37 goal season under his belt. That being said, hopefully both prospects become more complete players than Kyrou, and thrive in what role they receive. I do have high hopes for both prospects, but dont necessarily expect them to be "better" but possibly great in their owns rights, based on their own strengths.

 

[MissouriMook]

Stylistically too different to really compare apples to apples. I would be shocked if either prospect turns into a better playmaker than Thomas, and even with all his warts, Kyrou has a 37 goal season under his belt. That being said, hopefully both prospects become more complete players than Kyrou, and thrive in what role they receive. I do have high hopes for both prospects, but dont necessarily expect them to be "better" but possibly great in their owns rights, based on their own strengths.

I see Dvorsky as being a more “shoot first” center like Brayden Point or early career Stamkos, but slower and with more jam. I don’t yet see a 50 goal scorer, but he could certainly be a 35/45/80 guy.

Snuggerud strikes me as a guy who will consistently have more goals than assists, with a lot of his assists coming from line mates cleaning up rebounds of his shots that don’t go in. I see a guy that can be a projectible 40 goal scorer, but I think we need to see more development to say that he could reach 50.

With both in the Top 6, I think you would absolutely want Dvorsky paired with Kyrou and Snuggerud paired with Thomas to maximize their complimentary skill sets.

 

[Brian39]

What are the chances that Dvo and Snuggs turn out to be better than Thomas and Kyrou? I wouldn’t discount that.

I'd certainly put my money on Thomas/Kyrou.

That is mainly due to Thomas. I believe that we are seeing a 'next step' out of Thomas this year and not just a run of hot play. I'd have Thomas top 5 on the Selke ballot right now. He's on pace for 88 points and is 5th league wide in even strength scoring. He's +12 on a team that only has 3 forwards who are currently plus players (Buch is +5 and Hayes is +2). He's going against the highest quality of competition on the team with slightly defensive zone start usage. He has positive possession/expected stats across the board.

Thomas has been a no-doubt top 20 center in the league this year and I very much think he has a case to be in the top 10. It is a huge ask to hope a prospect eclipses that and the odds of it happening aren't great.

I will be very, very, very, very happy if Dvorsky "only" becomes 90% of the player Thomas is.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

I think Dvorsky allows Thomas to go more into the Playmaker role while Dvorsky sits into a 2-way defensive role.
I think Snuggy ends up scoring more goals, but Kyrou will put up more points.

I don't know if I'd say Snuggy/Dvorsky end up better than Thomas/Kyrou, but I think they will compliment each other.

 

[GoldenSeal]

Hard to tell right now. Could jump off, could burn out, could turn into trade bait for needs/upgrades. Potential is always there but you can never tell. The transition to the NHL has 'killed' many careers and regulated them to the minors or out of the sport entirely. Cautiously optimistic here, especially given our situation and needs. I personally feel the 3 year 'turn around window view' many have is far, far too optimistic. But we'll see.

 

[Celtic Note]

I think Dvorsky allows Thomas to go more into the Playmaker role while Dvorsky sits into a 2-way defensive role.
I think Snuggy ends up scoring more goals, but Kyrou will put up more points.

I don't know if I'd say Snuggy/Dvorsky end up better than Thomas/Kyrou, but I think they will compliment each other.

I would really like to just role two lines who are defensively responsible, instead of having one in a true shutdown role. It balances the workload and gives us more matchup flexibility in the playoffs at home while also making road matchups better.

 

[Blueston]

I think Dvorsky allows Thomas to go more into the Playmaker role while Dvorsky sits into a 2-way defensive role.
I think Snuggy ends up scoring more goals, but Kyrou will put up more points.

I don't know if I'd say Snuggy/Dvorsky end up better than Thomas/Kyrou, but I think they will compliment each other.

i would love this to be true, but this feels like optimistic takes. i know our team kinda sucks, but thomas has been phenomenal and kyrou (while inconsistent) is a gamebreaker like few in the league. that is high bar to set for any prospects.

i'm a huge dvo fan, but with the level that thomas has reached this season (he is knocking on door of being top 10 center in league) it's not likely that dvo is better than thomas at any key part of the game anytime soon. which is okay. dvo could be a 30 goal, 85 point guy who is solid defensively- which would be fantastic value for 10th overall- and still be our 2c if thomas keeps this up.

likewise, kyrou scored, what, 37 last year? snuggy is likely to be good player- thinking oshie level is reasonable reach projection- but that is a lot of goals. if he can score 30 on consistent basis that would be huge, huge win where he was picked. but so would consistent 25 goal guy. let's not set ourselves up to be disappointed bc we set unrealistic expectations for our top kids.

 

[Celtic Note]

i would love this to be true, but this feels like optimistic takes. i know our team kinda sucks, but thomas has been phenomenal and kyrou (while inconsistent) is a gamebreaker like few in the league. that is high bar to set for any prospects.

i'm a huge dvo fan, but with the level that thomas has reached this season (he is knocking on door of being top 10 center in league) it's not likely that dvo is better than thomas at any key part of the game anytime soon. which is okay. dvo could be a 30 goal, 85 point guy who is solid defensively- which would be fantastic value for 10th overall- and still be our 2c if thomas keeps this up.

likewise, kyrou scored, what, 37 last year? snuggy is likely to be good player- thinking oshie level is reasonable reach projection- but that is a lot of goals. if he can score 30 on consistent basis that would be huge, huge win where he was picked. but so would consistent 25 goal guy. let's not set ourselves up to be disappointed bc we set unrealistic expectations for our top kids.

I like Dvo too, but he has a lot to prove still, most notably against men. Is he a big guy living off his frame or is he something more? He is the only one that can determine that. I really hope they get him in the AHL next year to start that acclimation and to also help his work on his skating. I am not sure what else he can learn in juniors at this point that would help him with that next step, unless it’s how to be a better play driver.

Snuggy would also benefit from the AHL next year IMO. While o think he also could benefit from playing in the NCAA for the purposes of evolving his play driving and creativity, like with Dvo, I am not sure how much more it helps him.

 

[Blueston]

I like Dvo too, but he has a lot to prove still, most notably against men. Is he a big guy living off his frame or is he something more? He is the only one that can determine that. I really hope they get him in the AHL next year to start that acclimation and to also help his work on his skating. I am not sure what else he can learn in juniors at this point that would help him with that next step, unless it’s how to be a better play driver.

agreed. dvo has i think great upside, much more so than danielson who was picked ahead of him, but he is far from finished product. danielson may never be a top 6 guy, but he could probably play for detroit right now and not look out of place. if dvo were in nhl now, it could be ugly. but he is 18. he doesn't have to be nhl player now. however, the further away a guy is from being a good nhl player the greater risk he never reaches it. so dvo ain't a sure thing, and he may be a couple years away still, but those flashes he shows are at a level most guys never reach. hopefully they are harbinger of what is too come and not just a tease.

 

[joe galiba]

I think Dvorsky allows Thomas to go more into the Playmaker role while Dvorsky sits into a 2-way defensive role.
I think Snuggy ends up scoring more goals, but Kyrou will put up more points.

I don't know if I'd say Snuggy/Dvorsky end up better than Thomas/Kyrou, but I think they will compliment each other.

what role are we going to put Celebrini in?