Is corsi real?

[lomiller1]

I guess you just straight up didn’t read the article. At least not carefully. He took goal stats from 05-06 to 2014-15 and put them against long term shot stats from the same time frame to predict the outcome of 2015-16. Goal stats were better by a large margin.

You can’t use, for example, the 2005 LA Kings top predict whether the 2015 LA Kings will win/lose because the team is completely different. What he "predicted" wasn’t team performance but which metric would most strongly correlate to team performance within that season which is a completely trivial result.

What you want is to predict the outcome (or the goal differential) of future games, not what the relationship between goals/wins will be. (In fact a large part of the basis for using Corsi is that it predicts future goal and this translates into predicting wins/losses because you already know the relationship.)

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Comments on both sides of the aisle are going over the line. Please respect one another.

 

[Dominator13]

It's a good measurement for especially what it was created for.

As for it's end result, I've been very skeptical since the day the Kings who were 1st in CF%, ended up not making the playoffs. I see a lot bottom 6 players nowadays taking a lot of useless shots. I'm sure that at a certain extent, they're told by their agents to boost their advanced statistics

If I were a GM, only the team number would be important to find a tangible measurement for my coach's system, by then again, I can go back to my original skepticism.

 

[morehockeystats]

It's a good measurement for especially what it was created for.

As for it's end result, I've been very skeptical since the day the Kings who were 1st in CF%, ended up not making the playoffs. I see a lot bottom 6 players nowadays taking a lot of useless shots. I'm sure that at a certain extent, they're told by their agents to boost their advanced statistics

If I were a GM, only the team number would be important to find a tangible measurement for my coach's system, by then again, I can go back to my original skepticism.

I saw a lot of tweets that people start migrating from Corsi to Scoring Chances as a prediction tool. I guess Goals is the next logical stop.