Is Ben Lovejoy an elite defensive dman?

[KaseMeOutside]

Hi, how can we go about a statistical way to evaluate defensemen who specialize on defense?

I pose this because i'm going thru some stats on behind the net, and to my surprise Ben Lovejoy has the best GA/60 5v5 in the league at 1.39 goals per 60 minutes, next up are Slava Voynov, Ryan Suter, and Danny Dekeyser.

Lovejoy faces strong competition, but also only gets 48% of his starts in the offensive zone, but he also does not generate much offense, he is very much a defensive specialist. how can we measure players like this accurately? is he really a top end defensive dmen. He has a high PDO, but so do all of the other top reputed defensemen.

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[Calirose]

Hi, how can we go about a statistical way to evaluate defensemen who specialize on defense?

I pose this because i'm going thru some stats on behind the net, and to my surprise Ben Lovejoy has the best GA/60 5v5 in the league at 1.39 goals per 60 minutes, next up are Slava Voynov, Ryan Suter, and Danny Dekeyser.

Lovejoy faces strong competition, but also only gets 48% of his starts in the offensive zone, but he also does not generate much offense, he is very much a defensive specialist. how can we measure players like this accurately? is he really a top end defensive dmen. He has a high PDO, but so do all of the other top reputed defensemen.

Lol. No. But if he is Kevin Westgarth is an elite defensive forward.

 

[hatterson]

I think hockey is the hardest sport of the big 4 to quantify defense.

Lovejoy has great defensive stats this year and although I think he's a good defensive defenseman, I don't think he's anywhere near the best in the league. The problem is that most of the stats that are tracked don't show any "holes" in his game. He doesn't have an overly high ozone start, he doesn't have incredibly strong corsi teammates, he plays good corsi competition. The only outlier is his .948 on ice save percentage which is high, but not insane given a range of high .930s to low .940s for other's near the top of the list.

Currently I think defense is best judged with the eye test. Although the numbers can point us in directions and perhaps eliminate some candidates (ie, I wouldn't need to watch Morgan Rielly to know he hasn't played well defensively this year) it's one of the biggest areas (IMO) where numbers fall obviously short of eyes.

 

[KaseMeOutside]

i am very interested in finding stats that help quantify someone who is a prototypical stay at home defensive dman. lovejoy is an interesting case because he plays against good competition and teams don't score much against him, so how much is luck, and how much is it him helping shutdown other teams top 2 line players?

as i was looking around, pretty much any guy with high goal prevention numbers will have high on ice save %'s so it's hard to tell

 

[Dr Quincy]

I don't know if there are numbers that actually back this up, but I think there is a greater variation in effectiveness in Dmen from season to season as compared to Fs. Before this year Lovejoy was a 6/7/8 dman. This year he's been great. Is that now his established level, or are we going to be saying next year that he's #6 again? Ian White sucked, then he was good and then he sucked gain. Same with Liles, Quincey, and a few others I could name.

So, with all that said, no I don't think Lovejoy is an elite dman in any aspect, despite his great year.

 

[wgknestrick]

I've been wondering this as well too. Maybe "elite" is not the proper term, but very good. He is certainly a steal of a player considering his contract and what he was traded for. He has an elite defensive stick IMO and very good hockey sense. Passing and decision making are above average. His skating, puck handling, and shot are average to below average IMO.

Ben was always someone who I thought had a significant talent that was hard to notice when he played for PIT. He was a +42 (in 76 games) on the WBS Penguins back in 08/09. The next highest (non D partner player) was only a +16. Goligoski was a -1 on that team. That indicated to me that he was something "special" back then. You cannot luck your way into those types of numbers.

Lets average the last 3 years of data among defenders:

He's #17 in the league (of defenders) in goals for %. His teams are pretty dominant when he's on the ice, and he's shown this "talent" for a very significant period. He's been on some good teams (ANA and PIT), so I guess take this with a grain of salt. There is only 1 D man from each team above him (Letang and Souray), so he's probably not coat tailing.
http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...500&teamid=0&type=goals&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC

#19 in the league in GA/20
http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...1000&teamid=0&type=goals&sort=A20&sortdir=ASC

It is easy for me to claim that he is a top 20 defensive defender in this league. I would think he could have a spot on about 28 teams.

He doesn't play against top, top competition so that is what's probably keeping him back (reputation wise). I think he'll grow into that in a couple of years, but he is pretty much at his peak at age 30.

 

[Uncle Scrooge]

Just ask EA how they evaluate their ratings for defensive dmen.

And there's your answer, it's darn near impossible.

Like poster above me said, watching them play is the best way. If your a pylon out there for one shift and goalie saves your ass multiple times, there's no stat to be recorded for that.

Anyways i think Lovejoy is a good defenseman. Not 1st pairing guy, but pretty good on the 2nd pair.

 

[KaseMeOutside]

I've been wondering this as well too. Maybe "elite" is not the proper term, but very good. He is certainly a steal of a player considering his contract and what he was traded for. He has an elite defensive stick IMO and very good hockey sense. Passing and decision making are above average. His skating, puck handling, and shot are average to below average IMO.

Ben was always someone who I thought had a significant talent that was hard to notice when he played for PIT. He was a +42 (in 76 games) on the WBS Penguins back in 08/09. The next highest (non D partner player) was only a +16. Goligoski was a -1 on that team. That indicated to me that he was something "special" back then. You cannot luck your way into those types of numbers.

Lets average the last 3 years of data among defenders:

He's #17 in the league (of defenders) in goals for %. His teams are pretty dominant when he's on the ice, and he's shown this "talent" for a very significant period. He's been on some good teams (ANA and PIT), so I guess take this with a grain of salt. There is only 1 D man from each team above him (Letang and Souray), so he's probably not coat tailing.
http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...500&teamid=0&type=goals&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC

#19 in the league in GA/20
http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...1000&teamid=0&type=goals&sort=A20&sortdir=ASC

It is easy for me to claim that he is a top 20 defensive defender in this league. I would think he could have a spot on about 28 teams.

He doesn't play against top, top competition so that is what's probably keeping him back (reputation wise). I think he'll grow into that in a couple of years, but he is pretty much at his peak at age 30.

thanks these are good stats, i am just trying to quantify what makes a good defensive dman other than the eye test. lovejoy was an interesting case to me because having watched him, i know when paired with fowler he tends to play against the opponents first, or second line. it seems like defensive D is something teams really overpay for when maybe they don't need to

 

[Tecumseh]

Lol. No. But if he is Kevin Westgarth is an elite defensive forward.

It's people who say things like this who really know nothing about Lovejoy or haven't seen him play since his Pittsburgh days.

 

[DigitalSea]

He's playing incredible but I think he is a good 3-4 guy in the big picture. The better question is what was going on in PIT that made no one see this.

 

[capebretoncanadien]

Without looking I will say hell no.

I will now do a little research.

After further review..and I've actually seen the guy play a fair amount as well.

Opinion still remains hell no.

A perfectly passable NHL defenseman but in no way elite at all.

A modern day Grant Ledyard.

Upon further review not as good as Ledyard either.

 

[wgknestrick]

He's playing incredible but I think he is a good 3-4 guy in the big picture. The better question is what was going on in PIT that made no one see this.

Don't get me started on how moronic that entire organization has been. Simon Despres will be their next Ben Lovejoy. Any organization who hasn't scratched Craig Adams more than 1 time in 5 years, cannot be trusted. They use the "SouthPark headless chicken" means of decision making.

There is a reason Bylsma will be unemployed next year.

 

[JoelWarlord]

Currently I think defense is best judged with the eye test. Although the numbers can point us in directions and perhaps eliminate some candidates (ie, I wouldn't need to watch Morgan Rielly to know he hasn't played well defensively this year) it's one of the biggest areas (IMO) where numbers fall obviously short of eyes.

I agree with the caveat of knowing what you're looking for.

Guys like Doug Murray get called "shutdown" D when they're really horrible defensive D who hit. Part of the issue is that a lot of people still view hits as being inherently valuable, and a defenseman that hits has a much longer leash with fans.

Then there's the whole "puck mover" vs "shutdown" thing, there's a very pervasive idea that you need one of each on a pairing which isn't really true. When the Habs traded away Diaz it was rationalized away because he's a "puck mover" who wasn't producing offense. Ignoring that he played tough 2nd pairing shutdown minutes for half a season and played very very well, and the team's "shutdown" guys (Murray, Emelin) were getting torched.

A lot of guys fall through the cracks if you don't know what to look for. Defense =/= hits and that's a very common fallacy.

I'm not claiming that you look at the game this way, just speaking in a general sense about what I think are the issues with the eye test in this sense.

 

[wgknestrick]

thanks these are good stats, i am just trying to quantify what makes a good defensive dman other than the eye test. lovejoy was an interesting case to me because having watched him, i know when paired with fowler he tends to play against the opponents first, or second line. it seems like defensive D is something teams really overpay for when maybe they don't need to

If teams could find "Lovejoys" at will, and for the cost ANA payed, they would. The problem is that these chances are few and far between. Crosby has been quoted as claiming Lovejoy being the toughest PIT defender to play against when they played together. Crosby seems to agree with most of our thoughts on Ben.

I still don't quite know where to judge his partner, Fowler. He has had some brutal stats in the past, but is young and full of talent. Both Cam and Ben have kind of blossomed together so I have a tough time figuring out "who" is driving that bus.

Ben is a little more established (stat wise), but Cam obviously has more "visible/eye test" talent. They definitely seem to mesh well and cover for each other's weaknesses. Sum=more than the parts.

 

[bennyprofane]

thanks these are good stats, i am just trying to quantify what makes a good defensive dman other than the eye test.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-people-pushing-the-nhl-into-the-advanced-stats-era/

Here's a great article about what might be on the horizon to figure that question out. Hopefully this data starts popping up soon, because I think it's a fantastic stat.

 

[KaseMeOutside]

just wanted to update, per behindthenet lovejoy's 5 on 5 GA/60 went up slightly to 1.54 i'm not sure when they were last updated. what do you guys make of the high on ice save% with him on the ice?

 

[KaseMeOutside]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-people-pushing-the-nhl-into-the-advanced-stats-era/

Here's a great article about what might be on the horizon to figure that question out. Hopefully this data starts popping up soon, because I think it's a fantastic stat.

i wonder if the sports vu cameras would be useful in hockey?
if i were running a team, i would try to do it sneakily and see if any useful knowledge can be gained.

i think it makes alot of sense though, to force teams to dump pucks in but there's also the other aspect of intentionally doing so to try and lay some hard hits on the D and wear them down

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

I think it would be great to see things like: percentages of dump in vs. carry in, number of forecheckers to the puck in the corner, and "corner battle exit rate" for defensemen vs one/multiple forecheckers.

Being able to track and quantify tendencies like that will be huge.

 

[Mantha Poodoo]

I sorta started incidentally watching Lovejoy in the 10-11 season, during which I was unemployed during the entirety of the season and watched an insane amount of hockey on Gamecenter. I was watching Pittsburgh a lot as I had started following Letang a bit by that point.

Lovejoy is a very good skater for his size and plays a very sound positional game. He also plays the body a respectable amount as well. I wouldn't call him a hard hitter, but he does a great job of using his frame to pressure opposing players (and his good mobility in pretty much every mode of skating to get him into position to do so).

On top of that, Lovejoy is a good puckhandler. He's not going to wow you with his moves, but he is solid at retaining possession. He also has a very solid and safe pass, and a great first pass. He's not the guy looking for the awesome offensive setup, being very much a D first guy, but when he pinches or moves the puck in the offensive zone he does so responsibly.

The advanced stats over the past 3-4 seasons back it up as well. Lovejoy is extremely effective when on the ice, and his team tends to do more poorly when he is not, particularly defensively. He seems to have very good PKing numbers as well--while he does not get high ice time, he plays against a very high QoC and does extremely well.

I'm not willing to chalk this all up to randomness, as these numbers persist and have backup over several seasons. Rather than the sporadic up and down you tend to see from players perhaps benefiting from fortune, his numbers tend to show steady and consistent improvement with steady increases in ice time, what you would expect to see out of a developing defenseman, particularly a 2way/defensive dman. Curiously, one thing that the stats suggest is that Lovejoy may need to see more PP time. While he is not a direct producer, it is possible that his good pass helps his team effectively enter the zone, and he is good at containing the puck within the zone.

As for the eye test, well, players like Lovejoy are hard to eye test short term. He doesn't create offensive highlights, and he doesn't deliver constant bonecrushing hits or anything of the sort. A lot of his best work is simply being in the right place, using his good skating to get there, stick on the ice, doing the dirty work in the corners, etc. There's absolutely nothing that stands out -- and sometimes, that's the best thing for a d-man.

My conclusion? I'd like to see another full season out of him, but perhaps the OP has a point. It's possible Lovejoy is developing or has developed into a very good defensive d-man, and he may even have a bit of PP upside (though not necessarily in the points department).

 

[KaseMeOutside]

I think it would be great to see things like: percentages of dump in vs. carry in, number of forecheckers to the puck in the corner, and "corner battle exit rate" for defensemen vs one/multiple forecheckers.

Being able to track and quantify tendencies like that will be huge.

it would also be incredibly difficult, a sport like basketball is much easier to track. i would definitely like to see which players excel in puck battles and which ones don't, it's such a crucial part of the game

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

it would also be incredibly difficult, a sport like basketball is much easier to track. i would definitely like to see which players excel in puck battles and which ones don't, it's such a crucial part of the game

If the Sport VU data can determine the tendencies with which different basketball teams defend the pick and roll, I think painting a better picture of zone entry/dump and chase tendencies in the NHL is entirely doable. Maybe I'm being naive.

 

[Lawson624]

It has been proven many times that players have no effect/minimal effect on a goalies save percentage. So I think it would be much more prudent to use fenwick close (best indicator of future success) differential or Fen close against to determine who is elite defensively. Regarding Lovejoy no he isn't elite defensively but he is good. he is getting lucky by being on the ice when the goalie is not letting goals, this is unsustainable and will eventually fall off.