Incentive to cheer for a loss

[WinUnlimited]

Are you Adam Gold?

Speaking.

That being said- fans will still cheer for losses situationally.

Fans from every team can look at a schedule, at any point in the season, and truly want to win any game you point to with mathematical elimination draft orders.

Draft order can be determined by looking at a subset of games, dependent on the strength of the team. Mathematical elimination is a natural candidate to efficiently weight the number of games proportionately to strength of schedule and competitive balance. Using the number of games after elimination, I can force intense games at any point in the season. Example, eliminated with N=10 games left, the last 2N=20 games count for picks, as suggested in the video from 2012.

With new draft lottery odds, one has to wonder if these mathematical elimination draft orders will give the first pick to the worst teams more efficiently.

 

[Name Nameless]

But the idea is to give the best players to the worst teams. If a team is really bad, it may end a season on a ten game losing streak. Look at Arizona Coyotes first 20 games of this season: If that streak had ended their season, Coyotes wouldn't get more points in 20 games than other teams got in 10, rather less!

We need a proxy to find the worst team. The point standings from last year would have been a very good solution, if it hadn't been for tanking.

You keep avoiding the good solution: ignore the games late in the season when tanking really infests the game. The first 40 - 60 games is a much better way of seing who is really bad. Look at all the tank-talking now, it wouldn't have been there. Problem solved...

 

[GoJetsGo55]

Before the season starts, everyone registers for whichever team they want to cheer for. Whenever their team wins, they get a coupon for KFC or something. Problem solved

"WE WON!" *clutches chest*

 

[JT Kreider]

If Barzal put up 5 points again tonight I...wouldn't mind it. One more game to go until AV is fired and we better our tank position.

If the Rangers win tonight led by strong performances from Zibanejad, kreider, Buch, Lias, Chytil, Skjei and Pionk then I will enjoy the win and the positive signs for the future.

Not hoping for one outcome more than the other.

 

[Duke Silver]

If Barzal put up 5 points again tonight I...wouldn't mind it. One more game to go until AV is fired and we better our tank position.

If the Rangers win tonight led by strong performances from Zibanejad, kreider, Buch, Lias, Chytil, Skjei and Pionk then I will enjoy the win and the positive signs for the future.

Not hoping for one outcome more than the other.

I don't consider it cheering for a win. I think of it more as being apathetic about a loss.

 

[triggrman]

Never okay to want to lose. I hate the entire mentality..

 

[bobc222]

Speaking.


Fans from every team can look at a schedule, at any point in the season, and truly want to win any game you point to with mathematical elimination draft orders.

With new draft lottery odds, one has to wonder if these mathematical elimination draft orders will give the first pick to the worst teams more efficiently.

The only problem is that seriously bad teams will be stuck never winning a top 3 pick because they simply don't have the talent anywhere in their system to compete, even if for a subset of games. A bad team is more likely to lose the top overall pick by not winning in this new system, than an average team is likely to win the top overall pick by tanking in the current system.

 

[WinUnlimited]

The only problem is that seriously bad teams will be stuck never winning a top 3 pick because they simply don't have the talent anywhere in their system to compete, even if for a subset of games. A bad team is more likely to lose the top overall pick by not winning in this new system, than an average team is likely to win the top overall pick by tanking in the current system.

You don't expect any team to be able to win any given game in the NHL?

 

[bobc222]

You don't expect any team to be able to win any given game in the NHL?

I do, but I also think the chances of a team that has won 20% of their games all season is most likely to only win 20% of their remaining games, (binomial, that is) thus they are losing out on having the best pick, even if they've suffered all season long.

 

[NJDevils7]

How about...

PAE = Points After Elimination: amount of points obtained after you are mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. The worst teams would be eliminated early and have the most amount of time to accumulate points. Could even make for some big games down the stretch, if the 2 worst teams are close in PAE they would both be trying hard to win.

 

[WinUnlimited]

I do, but I also think the chances of a team that has won 20% of their games all season is most likely to only win 20% of their remaining games, (binomial, that is) thus they are losing out on having the best pick, even if they've suffered all season long.

20% win prct is still enough to earn a top pick

 

[WinUnlimited]

Looked at the last 12 seasons. No team since 2005 has had a record where Wins/GP < 20%.
Yes, we can expect pro sports teams to have the capacity to win any game. Otherwise, don't expect fans to pay.

 

[ES]

Wasn't Leafs 2015-16 one of the best worst-ranked teams? 69 points. Compared to Sabres getting 54 a year before and Avs getting 48 a year after.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

Looked at the last 12 seasons. No team since 2005 has had a record where Wins/GP < 20%.
Yes, we can expect pro sports teams to have the capacity to win any game. Otherwise, don't expect fans to pay.

You're selling people an illusion based on solving the wrong problem. The league's goal is to maximize revenue via market share over a multi-year horizon. They do this by distributing talent across the league to either sell success or hope to fans.

Your proposed system will have one of two outcomes:
1). The worst team will continue to have the best seeding into the ill-conceived draft lottery
or
2). It will shift the best seedings away from the worst teams and towards bubble teams

If outcome #1 you've established a more complex system for no change.

If outcome #2 you're established a system whereby the worst teams shed draft equity. How can an already bad team catch up in a negative sum system? They can get lucky or languish.

 

[me2]

If you want to stop teams tanking for draft position get rid of the draft.

 

[Name Nameless]

How about...

PAE = Points After Elimination: amount of points obtained after you are mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. The worst teams would be eliminated early and have the most amount of time to accumulate points. Could even make for some big games down the stretch, if the 2 worst teams are close in PAE they would both be trying hard to win.

This is backward. The point with the current system is to give the best picks to the worst teams, not the best teams.

If the teams didn't know how draft picks were distributed, the current system would have been the best. But they do know.

Just ignore the last games in the standing for the non-playoff teams, and there is no "must-lose" talk in the final games of the season.

So, almost the opposite of this suggestion...

 

[jkutswings]

Or, just get rid of the lottery. The reason the Oilers got all those first overalls is because of the damn thing.

The draft should be reverse order of seeding. Simple.

Yep. And tighten the allowable range for team budgets while you're at it. Many fans don't take it into account that certain owners deliberately hamstring their team by keeping $10M or more off the table for team building.

Now would that lead to an overall inflation in player salaries? Yes. But that would also help level the playing field, since it would be harder for the very best teams to keep everybody.

 

[stampedingviking]

Fans should not cheer for a win if they think it's in the team's interest to lose.
Blashill is a ****ty coach. The more losses, the more likely he's fired.
Lottery or no lottery, why should I cheer for that chump?
Fans should do whatever the **** they want.

It's fine to accept losses but to actively cheer against your team? Absolutely not.

 

[stampedingviking]

Fans that cheer for their team to lose aren't fans at all. I don't give a hoot about draft lotteries and placement. If you actively cheer for your team to lose in any capacity you're a ****in goof.

Agree totally.

 

[TheMule93]

It's fine to accept losses but to actively cheer against your team? Absolutely not.

Actively cheer for a long term win

 

[LeafsLegendAkiBerg]

Really the only way to do away with cheering for losses and tanking in general is to have the draft position start by first to miss the playoffs and move down from there. Of course this brings a bunch of obvious issues such as a bottom of the league teams being bottom of the league for longer. But there will never be a game in the NHL that doesn't matter at that point unless you already clinched a playoff spot super early, which you would still want to fight for better position.

This is the worst idea ever for the reasons you mention. The bottom team is suddenly stuck with a middling first rounder and never climbs out of the basement. This is a good idea if you want the worst teams in the league to fold.

The other problem with these ideas of games mattering even after you're eliminated is that proud athletes aren't playing their asses off for dibs on the best prospect. I highly doubt that draft position impacts any players willingness to win games.

 

[Howboutthempanthers]

It's fine to accept losses but to actively cheer against your team? Absolutely not.

Everyone's in charge of their own fandom.