Would you like to briefly summarize your method and results here?
I am very interested in what you found out.
It's not so easy to explain. Basically I focus on the opponent's GA.
1. Take the GA per game for each team.
2. Go through the schedule for each team, and for each game summarize the GA per game of the opponent.
3. Compare the result (of step 2) with a standard of say 3.0 GA per game, to see how "favoured" or "unfavoured" a team was. If EDM played vs teams that surrendered on average 3.3 goals per game, they were favoured by 3.3/3.0 = 1.1.
4. Every team gets their own number. Those numbers are team and season specific. Think of a table with three columns; season, team, factor. For each season we get 30 rows, so for say 20 seasons we get 600 rows. 1.0 is average.
To be more specific... In step 2, I exclude the opponent's games vs own team. If looking at EDM vs LAK, I focus on LAK's GA per game against
other teams (you may understand this intuitively, it's sort of standard procedure). I also separate home and away stats.
The table after step 4 tells us how "favoured" or "unfavoured" a certain team was during a certain season. If 1984 Edmonton has 0.75, we should multiplay their players' scoring stats by 0.75 (for example, 200 pts becomes 150 pts). If a "dead puck" era team has 1.2, their players' scoring stats should be multiplied by 1.2 (for example, 100 points would become 120 pts).
I think this is a fairly "easy" and effective method. The table one gets after step 4 is useful for other applications as well. We may for example use it to "schedule adjust" team stats as well. A team goal difference of 250-240 may in fact end up as 242-245 or so. One can use the GF and GA in pythagoran win formulas.
If we always use 3.0 GA per game as the standard, we get "era adjusted" stats automatically. If we want to instead look at single seasons without context, one may use league average for that season instead.
I have to admit it took me some while to arrive to the final results (the step 4 table), and there were some tricky steps to overcome. Being able to use tools like SQL Server helps a lot. (I wouldn't know how to do this in Excel.)
Once we have the table (after step 4), we can just use it.
I understand your frustration. The first time I presented the preliminary data ITT, it was met with basically silence. I'd rather genuine criticism than no response at all.
Yes, criticism is usually better than silence (although blunt and discouraging one-liners can be an exception). The end result is usually what I'm after, so suggestions on how to improve things are welcome.
What's ITT?
Perhaps most either aren't able to fully understand your work (the math and logic side, not your English) or are not really that curious and prefer to hold onto their existing beliefs.
I didn't perform this study in the belief that it would be generally understood, nevermind accepted. I did it out of my own curiosity and hopes that, if successful, it might improve the existing knowledge of a few and possibly spur another to do a similar or complementary study of some kind to further our knowledge.
This might (in many ways) be it.
I remember that study and believe it was a useful improvement in adjusting data. However, I think for the "common fan", it just doesn't resonate:
- the effects in most cases are relatively small, so it's easy to dismiss as unimportant (when in fact it is an improvement)
- it's not very user-friendly, in that one would presumably need a large matrix by season/team to calculate the effect, which is relatively small
- the general resistance to change and that which we don't understand (and many have very little knowledge of math/stats)
- most are results-oriented, in that if the results aren't what they're "looking for", they find it easy to dismiss or ignore them (which is why I don't find the "eyeball test" very important in most cases)
I agree.
Yet, as you acknowledge, schedule likely does matter and can sometimes alter scoring stats by say 5-8 % or so. It is common here to compare players. If a player scored 4 % more points than another. But there seem to be no attention being paid to things like schedule.
If I remember right, it was fairly common to see seasonal top-ten scoring lists being altered. In some case(s) I even think it affected the leading scorer (Art Ross winner) of the season.
How does scoring within a team matter? I mean in terms of an individual player's production. If you could briefly explain that, I would be interested in hearing it.
(This is not reserached yet. -->) For example, during seasons with a lot of powerplays, scoring within teams may look differently than seasons with little powerplays. Seasons with much powerplay may lead to power play specialist scoring points on a higher percentage of goals, than otherwise. Scoring during even strength appear to be much more balanced between players on a team.
I think I have posted table showing things like (made up):
Season|1st|2nd|3rd|...|15th
1984-85|40.2|36.3|33.0|...|12.5
1985-86|40.7|35.9|32.5|...|9.6
where 1st is the average for the leading scorer on each team. 2nd is the average for 2nd best scorer on each team. And so on...
I've also posted the above but with factual, as well as adjusted, stats.
If I remember right, some thought the schedule adjusted stats still didn't do the 1980s players total justice (based on "eye-test").
Then guys like Canadiens1958 seem able to tell us about how coaching and roster sizes has changed over the years. To take an extreme example, let's compare today's NHL with the NHL where some players played 60 minutes per game (if I remember right).
By the way, adjusted points hasn't really been on my mind during the last months.
Strength of era certainly matters, but how to measure it? That was a primary purpose of this study, to determine which eras were stronger (tougher) and which were weaker (easier) for top tier players to score. While scoring is not the only aspect, it's a very important aspect.
I think what you have done is one piece of the puzzle, but to get it the "whole picture" needs to be integrated with other pieces.
I started studying the year-to-year changes, but found that I wanted to include more things in the equation. Age is one of those things.
I think it was during the best defenceman project that I did a fairly advanced study on strength of different seasons. I don't remember the details right now, but I think the strongest season for defencemen appeared to be around 1981. I think I didn't post it, or possibly posted it but deleted it. (It probably was yet another of those cases where people on one hand were constantly doing more or less arbitrary adjustments within their heads, but on the other hand didn't find a study trying to determine it to be of much value.)
A general note of encouragement: Don't give up if it genuinely intrigues you. You've demonstrated an interest and capability in this capacity. I would recommend you be selective and tend to choose studies with large effects and possibly broad implications. The smaller the effects and narrower the applications of the results, the fewer people will be interested.
Thank you. I do enjoy studying stats and doing research to try to find out "how things really are (or may be)". Part of my problems may also be that I think that some things (like strength of eras, etc., etc.) ought to be "settled" and might require partly narrow studies to build upon.
I've been more interested in building upon your win % thinking that Overpass' thread on adjusted +/- developed into. I spent quite some time integrating SH and PP play into the study. I even "adjusted" for goaltending, which (goaltending) I think is among the most overlooked things when focusing on +/-. I was planning on posting a thread on it. I posted a small example, but got discouraging replies, got the impression that no matter how thorough and/or complete the study would be, it would just not affect the already made up minds on how things are.
During the last 1-2 months, I've studied how team performance is affected when a player is out of the team (for example being injured). To me very interesting. I posted a chosen example showing that Pavol Demitra actually significantly made his team perform far better with him playing than when his out injured. Not during one team during one season, but season after season on 4-5 different teams. No interest whatsoever, apart from one comment more or less automatically dismissing the study.
(In the "best defencemen" project, there sometimes were mentioning of how a team performed when a player (don't remember if Eddie Shore or Sprague Cleghorn) played or not. I have done that for every player on every team since 1987-88 to 2010-11. In the project, this stat was considered meaningful, even if there was no comparison at all made to other players. When I do it, it's considered uninteresting or meaningless.)
To me, it's amazing to see Lidstrom place very highly, with his team being nearly average with him not on the team (and this not even including 2011-12, and even not counting games during end of regular season where Detroit rested players).
I would have pointed out that Gretzky didn't seem to make LAK better during the regular seasons, something that meets my own eye-ball test. But how ridiculed would I be if posting something like that?
Both of the above studies have a holistic approach, which I find is a good way to go. Compare team with a player with team without player. In my opinion more useful than studying +/- when on ice, compared to +/- when on the bench.
I have also started studying how different players actually affect each others scoring stats. For example, how did Mario Lemieux benefit by playing with Kevin Stevens, and vice versa. I can find out by filtering out games where both played, or just one of them.
I outlined a regression study that seems worthwhile. Do you think such a study makes sense and is feasible?
See above (one piece of the puzzle, or rather several pieces).
I have to say I agree with some of the criticism you have received, but I suppose you basically do too. I basically agree with your replies to the replies you have gotten. You have started something good, that should be able to be improved and built upon.
Gosh, this takes time... I started on this post 2 1/2 hours ago...
Regarding adjusted points (or goals), I think one needs to understand and keep in mind how the most common methods work. We first normalize scoring to say 6 goals per game, to make different seasons comparable.
I can't find the words properly now, but I think it's valuable to understand what we're normally doing. We have a set number of "total goals" and what the common methods does is to tell how much different players stand out compared to some sort of league average. How much they stand out depends in things like:
* How many teams were there in the league? The more teams, the more spread out quality, and the more easy it may be for the top scorers to stand out compared to their average teammate.
* What was the strength of era? Again, the higher quality per team, the more hard to stand out.
I'm very tired now, and can't think very straight, but just wanted to point out that traditional adjusted scoring has a lot to do with percentages. It's "team GF divided by league average GF" multiplied by "player's pts divided by team's GF". Or just "player's pts" divided by "league average GF".
That's great. I don't believe my database, know-how, nor software are on par with many here, such as yourself.
I think you're among the better/best ones here.
If you ever wish any assistance while designing and structuring a study, please PM me.
Thank you.
BTW, your English is very good, I doubt anyone has any trouble understanding you.
Thanks. I think people understand me. It's rather that I need to express myself in simple, perhaps childlike, school English, and I suspect that may affect the way I'm being perceived(?) here by some.