Speculation: If necessary, should Fitzgerald trade up to assure we get one of Power Hughes or Clarke?

[My3Sons]

No.

This draft is too hard to track. Why trade an asset for an unknown? The Devils have too many holes to be trading up. Trading down or moving assets for a young player, maybe. First, I’d fire the pro scout, Johnsson/Siegenthaler yeesh...

Just a hunch, but my guess is that both those guys were analytics picks. Realistically, it's not like Anderson has blossomed as an actual NHL player and the relative value of a third round pick at about 70-75 is not great compared to even a borderline NHLer. Hopefully they get better results with other transactions.

 

[JrFischer54]

we've been there with Schneider trade, Arizona did that with Raanta + Stepan in 2017.

it would go against team philosophy as it'd provide present value at the cost of future value (when our team is super young).

with that being said, the prospects are so close that I wouldn't trade up but I actually wouldn't mind Beniers or Guenther.

they ended up trading ranta and stepan for andersson hes not even in the nhl anymore.

devils team was trending down when they traded for cory they were entering their rebuild. we should be coming out of it after 8 years. also everyone said prime cory before injury was a top 5 goalie in the nhl. so to get a top 5 goalie for bo hovart?

 

[The Wumpus]

No. Trading up at the top of the draft tends to be very expensive. If the big-3 D are gone, Beniers, Guenther, or Eklund would be awesome additions.

 

[BurntToast]

Just a hunch, but my guess is that both those guys were analytics picks. Realistically, it's not like Anderson has blossomed as an actual NHL player and the relative value of a third round pick at about 70-75 is not great compared to even a borderline NHLer. Hopefully they get better results with other transactions.

It a normal world, but one can argue that the scouting staffs late draft strategy “slays”. Ironically, the top picks have developed more slowly.

 

[Alex NJD]

The last time we saw draft day trade ups/downs involving the top 10 picks was 2008. The lack of a consensus top few picks this year could possibly make teams fine with moving down a few spots but on the other hand I find it unlikely teams are willing to spend assets to move up during a year where there is a lot more uncertainty around prospects due to the COVID environment. I doubt we, or anyone else trades up. (At the top of the draft)

 

[Guttersniped]

We don’t really have the picks for it unless Fitz uses the other the 1st since we don’t have an early 2nd. The teams in the best position to trade up are the ones with multiple 2nds, including their own early ones: Ottawa (2x 2021, 2x2022), Detroit (3x2021, 2x2022) and LA (2x2021, 1x2022). (Not saying they would want to do that but it would be easier for them to pull off.)

It’s hard to exactly price what the trade value of a top 3 pick would be. There aren’t any trades with picks that early in the hard cap era. GMs can’t go to the Draft Pick Exchange to make a swap, they need to find a partner and sometimes a trade favors one team simply because those were the picks each team had. And you do have to find a team that wants to trade. Edmonton didn’t find much interest the 1st they were actually interested in trading, the 2012 one.

1999 Draft: Sedins (This is a completely unhelpful example.)
This draft has an amazing trade for those goofy amazing twins, a legendary late pick (7th rounder Zetterburg) and then it tragedy abound as this draft suuuucksss. So I will cut to how Brian Burke bamboozled other teams into giving him the only great players in the first round. Vancouver had the 3rd pick, while Tampa had the 1st, Atlanta had the 2nd and Chicago had the 4th. Burke traded Vancouver’s 2000 1st (#12 Pavel Vorobiev lol) and Bryan McCabe for Chicago’s 4th. Burke then traded that 1999 1st (#4 Pavel Brendl lol), plus a 1999 3rd (#75 Brett Scheffelmaier) and a 1999 3rd (#88 Jimmie Olvestad) to the Lightning for the 1OA. Now while that doesn’t sound like a lot (it isn’t) the Lightning really only wanted the 4th pick for a different trade with the Rangers. The complicated (and weirdly fascinating, if you like this sort of thing, details are laid out pretty well here).

Historical Hockey Stats & Trivia: How did the Canucks draft the Sedin twins?

Anyhoo, Burke ends up swapping 1OA with the 2nd with the Thrashers, along with a promise that they would draft Patrik Stefan (lol) with it and Burke got a conditional 2000 3rd rounder (#67 Max Birbraer) which he flipped with a 2000 2nd (#39 Teemu Laine) to Lou for Vadim Sharifijanov and a 2000 3rd (#93 Tim Branham). So the Devils got a little piece of the Sedin trade! (A very little piece.)

2004 Draft (pre-hard cap but I’m throwing it in here.)
And Doug MacLean made this ugly bad value 2004 pick trade with Carolina.

2004 CBJ 1st (#4 Andrew Ladd)
for
2004 CAR 1st (#8 Alexandre Picard)
2004 TOR 2nd (#59 Kyle Wharton)

When people complain about the very bad CBJ drafting under MacLean they don’t realize the chucklef*** somehow agreed to drop four spots in the top ten (and out of the top four!) in exchange for the 7th to last pick in the 2nd round. (Maybe Jim Rutherford offered a 2nd and Doug forgot to check where it was in the 2nd round before saying yes.) So MacLean also chose not to draft Andrew Ladd or Blake Wheeler when he drafted Alexandre Picard.



Speaking of Doug MacLean, that’s a clip which shows MacLean and his staff working their magic at the 2005 Draft in Ottawa. MacLean starts off strong, explaining how he prefers centerman Gilbert Brule because of his “grit, grind and snotty nose” over some Euro sissy named Anze Kopitar.

We then get his brain trust in the suite, with Doug reachable by phone, when, for some unknown reason, they entertain a trade for a random 29 year old goalie, Martin Prusek, for a 3rd (67th). Seriously, I spent longer then I should wondering if the Ottawa GM was pranking or trying to trick them with this offer because the draft was at the end of July 2005 and the CBJ signed Prusek as FA in August 2005. He played 9 NHL games for them and then fell off the face of the earth (well, went to play in Europe). And Ottawa wanted the 67th pick for him? It’s weird.

The reason I posted this link, other than it’s fun to make fun of McLean who was a very terrible GM**, is because a GM calls and offers a 2005 1st Rd (#12), a 2nd Rd (#35) and a 5th Rd (either the #140 or #149) for the CBJ’s 6th. By golly, that must be a fresh faced Doug Wilson, who just took over the San Jose Sharks (that’s why I can guess the 5ths, and btw, that’s a terrible offer Doug to Doug). MacLean turns him down, he’s eager to grab all that grit and snot he covets at 6th, so Wilson alters the offers slightly to the 2005 SJS 1st Rd (#12), the 2005 2nd Rd (#49 Chad Denny) and the 2005 7th Rd (#207 Myles Stoesz) and trades that pick package to the Thrashers for the 2005 ATL 1st Rd (#8 David Setoguchi).

Wilson then uses the 35th pick he had offered to MacLean to draft Marc-Edouard Vlasic instead. Don Waddell, the Thrashers GM, flips the 2005 SJS 1st Rd (#12 Marc Staal) to the Rangers for the 2005 NYR 1st Rd (#16 Alex Bourret) and the 2005 PHI 2nd (#41 Ondrej Pavelec).

2008 Draft:
Garth Snow flipping picks like flapjacks as usual:
NYI traded to TOR
2008 NYI 1st Rd (#5 Luke Schenn)
for
2008 TOR 1st Rd (#7), 2009 TOR 2nd Rd (#37) [which Snow used in a 2009 pick trade] and 2008 TOR 3rd Rd (#68) [which Snow traded to Chicago for two picks]

and then Snow trade with NSH
2008 TOR 1st Rd (#7 Colin Wilson)
for
2008 FLA 1st Rd (#9 Josh Bailey)
2008 FLA 2nd Rd (#40 Aaron Ness)
[Poille flipped picks he got in a trade with Florida for Vokoun.]

2009 Draft (Garth “I heart pick trades” Snow Ed):
NYI trades with CBJ
2009 SJS 1st Rd (#26 Kyle Palmieri*), 2009 2nd Rd TOR (#37 Mat Clark*), 2009 NYI 3rd (#62) and 2009 NYI 4th Rd (#92)
for
2009 CBJ 1st Rd (#16) and 2009 CBJ 3rd (#77)

Then NYI trades with MIN
2009 CBJ 1st Rd (#16 Nick Leddy), 2009 CBJ 3rd (#77 Matt Hackett) and 2009 NYI 7th Rd (#182 Eric Haula)
for
2009 1st Rd (#12 Calvin de Haan)

FYI On the second draft day, Snow reclaimed his picks in a different trade.

NYI trades with CBJ
2009 2nd Rd (#56 Kevin Lynch)
for
2009 3rd Rd (#62 Anders Nilsson) and 2004 (#92 Casey Cizikas)
*Both these picks were traded to Anaheim for the 21OA pick used by Columbus GM Scott Howson to draft John Moore. That didn’t work out for Howson but his modest mixed results as the CBJ was a triumph compared to MacLean.

**I’m not one to drag GMs but this dufus crippled the nascent Blue Jackets by making just about every mistake possible. He was was the Panthers head coach for two years and a two months before the Columbus tragedy, but that was his first NHL management job (he was Brian Murray lackey at Detroit before that and briefly the GM of AHL Adirondack Red Wings, where he “famously orchestrated a trade for Kris Draper for $1” and that’s in his Wikipedia entry because he will never f***ing shut up about his one good move until he dies and even then his ghost will probably be regaling a terrified Sportsnet host with his killer Draper story on All Hallows’ Eve). That was also his last NHL management job, he then Mike Milbury’ed his ass to Canadian TV.

 

[Hisch13r]

I'd take guys like Beniers, Lysell, Eklund over Power anyway.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

I think Power, Guenther, and Beniers are almost locks to go top 5 right now. As long as we don’t fall past 5 which isn’t too likely at this point I think we’ll get a shot at one of those 3 D. This also depends on how well these guys do in the U18s. If Clarke lights it up and guys like Guenther and Edvinsson don’t he could become a very likely top 3 pick.

 

[Peter Sidorkiewicz]

I think we are pretty much assured to get one of the top defenseman in the draft. What I want Fitzy to do is trade up and get a 2nd top defenseman.

I want to leave this draft with Clarke and one of Power/Hughes.

 

[Emperoreddy]

I think we are pretty much assured to get one of the top defenseman in the draft. What I want Fitzy to do is trade up and get a 2nd top defenseman.

I want to leave this draft with Clarke and one of Power/Hughes.

We don't have the pieces to do that.

 

[Nico Hischier]

I think Power, Guenther, and Beniers are almost locks to go top 5 right now. As long as we don’t fall past 5 which isn’t too likely at this point I think we’ll get a shot at one of those 3 D. This also depends on how well these guys do in the U18s. If Clarke lights it up and guys like Guenther and Edvinsson don’t he could become a very likely top 3 pick.

Unfortunately there are greater odds that we will pick #6 instead of top 5 currently

 

[FooteBahl]

Unfortunately there are greater odds that we will pick #6 instead of top 5 currently

You watch your mouth, sir. This is a family forum.

 

[Lou is God]

I think we are pretty much assured to get one of the top defenseman in the draft. What I want Fitzy to do is trade up and get a 2nd top defenseman.

I want to leave this draft with Clarke and one of Power/Hughes.

Who did you have in mind in giving up to move up that far?

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Unfortunately there are greater odds that we will pick #6 instead of top 5 currently

No, if the season finishes exactly as it is now we slide into the 4th spot and our most likely pick is 5th. If we finish behind Anaheim it’s 4th at worst.

Current pick odds if we finish 3rd last:
1- 9.5
2- 9.6
4- 14.5
5- 45.8
6- 20.6

So we have just under an 80% chance of picking top 5

 

[Edmonton East]

Would only consider if they loved Hughes equally or more than the others. In that scenario, it'd be worth the premium.

I'm not saying you go out of your way to get Hughes, but if you truly value him equally+ to the others, the Devs have extra incentive.

 

[Nico Hischier]

No, if the season finishes exactly as it is now we slide into the 4th spot and our most likely pick is 5th. If we finish behind Anaheim it’s 4th at worst.

Current pick odds if we finish 3rd last:
1- 9.5
2- 9.6
4- 14.5
5- 45.8
6- 20.6

Wouldn’t those be the odds for Seattle?

 

[FooteBahl]

No, if the season finishes exactly as it is now we slide into the 4th spot and our most likely pick is 5th. If we finish behind Anaheim it’s 4th at worst.

Current pick odds if we finish 3rd last:
1- 9.5
2- 9.6
4- 14.5
5- 45.8
6- 20.6

So we have just under an 80% chance of picking top 5

This sounds like it could be correct. I just ran like 10 tankathon simulations and we slid down to the five seed on half of them.

 

[Emperoreddy]

Wouldn’t those be the odds for Seattle?

No. Seattle is 11, 11, 6, 40, 30

 

[Nico Hischier]

Yes nevermind

 

[Devs3cups]

I don't think so. I'm confident we're getting a solid player where we pick. Go BPA. If the 3 d-men are gone, so be it. A forward could be used to trade for a d-man, or we might even be in a position to draft a great defenseman in the next draft, even though I really expect the team to be better next season. Look at Smith, we got him at 17th overall, and he's looking like a great, steady 1st pairing guy so far.

 

[The Wumpus]

lol wrong thread

 

[Brodeur]

1999 Draft: Sedins (This is a completely unhelpful example.)
This draft has an amazing trade for those goofy amazing twins, a legendary late pick (7th rounder Zetterburg) and then it tragedy abound as this draft suuuucksss. So I will cut to how Brian Burke bamboozled other teams into giving him the only great players in the first round. Vancouver had the 3rd pick, while Tampa had the 1st, Atlanta had the 2nd and Chicago had the 4th. Burke traded Vancouver’s 2000 1st (#12 Pavel Vorobiev lol) and Bryan McCabe for Chicago’s 4th. Burke then traded that 1999 1st (#4 Pavel Brendl lol), plus a 1999 3rd (#75 Brett Scheffelmaier) and a 1999 3rd (#88 Jimmie Olvestad) to the Lightning for the 1OA. Now while that doesn’t sound like a lot (it isn’t) the Lightning really only wanted the 4th pick for a different trade with the Rangers. The complicated (and weirdly fascinating, if you like this sort of thing, details are laid out pretty well here).

It's amusing to read the contrast with how Burke re-tells the story from that draft versus how it was from Rick Dudley's perspective. In Burke's book, he said he shared a car ride with Chicago GM Bob Murray after he watched the Sedins at the World Championships in 1999. Right as they got back from the Worlds, Chicago won the draft lottery and moved up from #8 to #4. Burke said Chicago contacted him first asking if he'd move #3 outright as they were envisioning a way to get both Sedins. But since Vancouver had #3, they had the upper hand and the talks pivoted to Chicago trading #4 instead.

With the benefit of hindsight, Burke didn't need to do the second set of trades and could have gotten the Sedins with picks #3 and #4. Tampa Bay GM Rick Dudley had kept his cards close to his vest and didn't tip his hand about whether or not they intended to draft Daniel Sedin or Pavel Brendl. The thought at the time was to draft a winger to pair with Vincent Lecavalier. The Sedins agent told NHL teams that the twins might stay in Sweden for a couple more years if they were drafted by different teams. Burke was paranoid that Tampa was going to take Daniel which meant he'd be stuck with Pavel Brendl at #4.

What Burke didn't know was that Tampa preferred Brendl and Dudley was just trying to get Burke to improve his modest offer (two 3rd round picks). It's funny to think that Burke was willing to risk it over a measly 2nd rounder. Tampa simultaneously worked out a trade with the Rangers, who wanted Brendl, so Dudley took the extra picks that Burke was offering since it didn't affect the other deal. It's also funny knowing that the league had vetoed the Ziggy Palffy / Rangers trade a week before the draft; They'd use some of the same assets to get Brendl instead.

----------------------

As much I love having trades in my mock drafts, it's usually harder to pull off in real life. Unless the team trading down knows for sure that they'll still be getting the guy they would have drafted in the original slot, most teams will be content with taking their intended target rather than risk it for an extra pick.

I'll give points to Garth Snow for creativity. The rumor was that in 2012 he really wanted Ryan Murray and offered all of the Islanders 2012 picks to move up from #4 to #2 but Columbus declined. This draft class does have some parallels to 2012. No home run forward prospect, a decent mix of D in the top 10, and some question marks due to players not playing (Murray/Galchenyuk/Rielly/Koekkoek missed chunks of time).

 

[Peter Sidorkiewicz]

Who did you have in mind in giving up to move up that far?

Future 1st round pick.
OR
Package Islanders pick + Zacha + Wood?
OR
Take Jeff Skinner contract

I know it is extremely unlikely and pie in the sky, but I would see what it would take from the teams drafting in the top 5.

 

[Emperoreddy]

Buffalo would want more then just dumping Skinner's contract to move that far back in the draft, and his contract alone is already an insane amount. It's really bad

 

[HischierSeDgewOrk]

I think we need to draft top 4 to get one of the big 3.