Speculation: I. 2014 Stars Offseason Thread: The New Star Has Risen

[BigG44]

I wouldn't sit on the current D and I would keep Chiasson.

I forgot part of that quote. If you take it at face value, it would seem he's prepared to stay with the current D, and he's only interested in a top pair D to add.

Would you consider Edler a top pair D? I think he is. What could you trade to get him without giving up Chiasson if you're interested?

The only guy I think Dallas might be able to trade for who may be considered a top pair D by Nill ... maybe not ... that you might get without trading Chiasson is probably Phaneuf.

 

[oconnor9sean]

I hope he proves me wrong, but I don't think Chiasson has the tools to be effective.

 

[Mr Misty]

I hope he proves me wrong, but I don't think Chiasson has the tools to be effective.

I think he is a touch too slow for the style we want to play. If we have a 2nd line that slows things down he might be fine, but we just don't have players who play that style right now.

 

[Mr Misty]

Can we please for the love of god not go into next season with Rou-Eakin-Garbutt as our 2nd line? The decline on Richards looks ugly, no thank you. Stastny isn't going to be worth the money or term he's paid. Grabovski is intriguing but I imagine he'll stay out East.

How bout instead of worrying what they'll do with Dickinson or Shore, assuming they even make it, find a better player than Cody Eakin. Eakin is a good player but a poor play maker who's vision is questionable. As long as they find a guy who can dish the puck to Nichushkin and whomever is riding along that's an upgrade. It keeps your checking line intact and if in the future you have a surplus of riches you make a trade to fill whatever hole you have.

There's huge risk that you make the wrong call and the guy you target doesn't pan out but the best way to get the most upside for your trade value is finding the next Cody Eakin who's blocked by his current parent club. There are at least a half a dozen guys dominating the AHL who should be on the verge of NHL careers. Find the one you love who's available at a price we're willing to pay and make a deal.

You think there are a half dozen guys who played last year in the AHL that are better centers than Cody Eakin?

 

[NFKappaB]

I think he is a touch too slow for the style we want to play. If we have a 2nd line that slows things down he might be fine, but we just don't have players who play that style right now.

I'm no hockey coach, but to me it makes the most sense to not switch styles of play between lines. Keep the transition game fast with four lines rolling.

 

[txomisc]

I'm no hockey coach, but to me it makes the most sense to not switch styles of play between lines. Keep the transition game fast with four lines rolling.

It makes the most sense to me to have guys who can mix things up and attack defenses in different ways. Speed speed speed isn't going to get the team to the next level.

 

[Hull Fan]

You think there are a half dozen guys who played last year in the AHL that are better centers than Cody Eakin?

Who are going to eventually surpass Eakin? You bet. Would you like the list again because I've given the names more than once here but sure. I think the offensive upside for these guys is more than Eakin is ever going to accomplish, especially if he remains in a checking role, which he's proven adept to at this juncture. He doesn't have the vision to be a upper level 2C in the NHL. That's not the end of the world because he can do other things and I think as a whole Dallas is much better off with one of these guys and minus Chiasson than with Eakin 2C and Chiasson further down the roster.

The list, in no particular order:

Ryan Spooner
Anders Lee
Mikhail Grigorenko
Vladislav Namestnikov
Vincent Trocheck
Alexander Khokhlachev

Calle Järnkrok would have been on my list but he got traded and Nashville certainly isn't going to give him up. I'm pretty sure I'm missing someone too, but off the top of my head, yeah those 6 guys will eventually, assuming freak injury does not derail their careers put up better numbers and be top six players in the NHL within a few years at the latest. Some guys like Spooner and Lee have basically already made the NHL jump like Nemeth did this season.

 

[Hull Fan]

I have no idea how you make the case that Chiasson's value will never get higher, especially based on line combos that are unknowable.

I make the case that I don't believe in his offense long term. He's got stone hands. He's not a scorer at this level or any other level he's ever played and never will be. A career high 17 goals is terrible, especially when you consider he scored that in the USHL. He's got good vision and can set up his teammates but loses board battles and isn't spectacular defensively in his own zone. Part of that was his abysmal linemates but he was a liability on the power play and without all that PP time in the future he'll never score enough to carry a trade all on his own. He may be able to tip pucks in practice but his net front ability was practically horrible given the amount of PP TOI he received all season.

Chiasson isn't a horrible player we should dump just because but I contend as soon as the middle of next year he'll be the 3rd or perhaps 4th best right winger on this club. Limited minutes, lesser talented linemates, age, and below average shot are going to severely limit his upside. I'd compare him to Drew Stafford of the last two seasons who should be better but his numbers will never add up.

So if you're asking me would I rather have Chiasson who may be a 40 point winger or gamble and trust that my scouts know what they see and target a guy like Anders Lee to be a 50-60 point center with Nuke on the 2nd line, you're darn right I make that trade. It may fail and Lee never amounts to anything but his numbers in the AHL and his short time in the NHL say he won't. I'd be willing to add to make that trade happen.

And I'd contend that all of the above centers I listed in my previous post will have at least one 50 point season in their first 3 full years in the NHL and Chiasson never will.

 

[BigG44]

You think there are a half dozen guys who played last year in the AHL that are better centers than Cody Eakin?

Hull Fan always values unknown potential above all. Bigger stats the better.

I'm not saying that as a knock, but she's made it clear she's a fan of the young and unproven for a while.

 

[Ambassador Of Fun]

The over under on who has more career points in the NHL that played the whole year in the AHL this year would certainly be a great bet at o/u 5.5 centers v Eakin at the end of their careers.

Edit: That might be super confusing. I'm saying I have no clue which side I would take on this bet. Cody Eakin finishes in the top 5 in NHL points against all the Centers who played the whole year in the AHL this year.

 

[Brand New Stars]

I agree with the Chiasson's upside is quite limited camp. I just don't see any top 6 potential.

 

[Mr Misty]

Who are going to eventually surpass Eakin? You bet. Would you like the list again because I've given the names more than once here but sure. I think the offensive upside for these guys is more than Eakin is ever going to accomplish, especially if he remains in a checking role, which he's proven adept to at this juncture. He doesn't have the vision to be a upper level 2C in the NHL. That's not the end of the world because he can do other things and I think as a whole Dallas is much better off with one of these guys and minus Chiasson than with Eakin 2C and Chiasson further down the roster.

The list, in no particular order:

Ryan Spooner
Anders Lee
Mikhail Grigorenko
Vladislav Namestnikov
Vincent Trocheck
Alexander Khokhlachev

Calle Järnkrok would have been on my list but he got traded and Nashville certainly isn't going to give him up. I'm pretty sure I'm missing someone too, but off the top of my head, yeah those 6 guys will eventually, assuming freak injury does not derail their careers but up better numbers and be top six players in the NHL within a few years at the latest. Some guys like Spooner and Lee have basically already made the NHL jump like Nemeth did this season.

So what you want is a Shore/Dickinson type who is two years closer to being an NHLer? I'd be very surprised if any of those guys puts up better numbers than Eakin next year, and I don't think bringing that type of player in is good asset management because we don't need offense two years from now, we need it now. The guys you listed either play on bad-ish rebuilding teams who are hoarding young players, or the Bruins, who are freaking out about Kreijci's bad postseason and the cap crunch they are facing. They aren't the type of guys their teams are going to be fine letting go of for cheap.

I think we'd be better served trying to buy low on Gagner or Desharnais. Both guys should be available because both have their weaknesses, but you know you are getting about 40 points if you give them 2nd line minutes and 2nd line caliber linemates.

 

[Johno]

Lee with Nuke would be awesome on the 2nd line. Two huge guys speeding and powering through opposition!

Edit: also he can be the netfront guy and be effective at it.

 

[oconnor9sean]

Lee with Nuke would be awesome on the 2nd line. Two huge guys speeding and powering through opposition!

Edit: also he can be the netfront guy and be effective at it.

I posted on the Isles' board asking about Lee's value. From what I read up on scouting reports, he looks awesome. Big, great at faceoffs, and put up 14pts in 22 games this year with the Islanders.

EDIT: NYI fans are saying that Lee hasn't played C since he turned pro, so we can give up on that one.

 

[Johno]

Well damn. Maybe he could convert back to C...
Anyway, they seem high on him.

 

[BigG44]

I don't think Lee is a realistic target. The Isles need top end forwards so you'd have to give up a high end defender or something choice ... something Dallas can't afford to give up.

That said ... him not playing center yet as a pro isn't uncommon. Some teams start out guys on wing to ease them in ... see Seguin. The deal breaker isn't that he doesn't play center right now to me.

You can't just identify good young players. You've got to at least consider why that player might be expendable. To me when you look at the Isles ... smarter money is on them moving Nielsen sooner than a young guy.

I wouldn't be surprised if their 4 centers next year were Tavares, Nelson, Strome, and Cizikas. Anders Lee for sure should be a Top 6 player for them. If they're moving him, it's for NHL help immediately.

 

[Hull Fan]

Hull Fan always values unknown potential above all. Bigger stats the better.

I'm not saying that as a knock, but she's made it clear she's a fan of the young and unproven for a while.

I am a fan of the young and unproven rather than the old and past it. Yes I advocated blowing this up for a while before it actually happened. You think I wouldn't want Joe Thornton if he bizarrely decided to waive his NTC because of his age? Hell yes I'd take him or Marleau, thank you. But they aren't going to waive their NTC/NMC to come to Dallas at this stage of their careers or Dallas' playoff trajectory in a supremely crowded Central Division and WC as a whole. PHX and VAN basically had to fall apart for us to sneak in and while I expect Dallas to be better next year, anything can happen in this highly competitive conference.

If Nill could somehow pull another Seguin or 25-28 year old proven center with term on his contract trade more power to him. I'll applaud in awe but I think he caught his one white whale and there's not going to be a young, signed, almost super star out there coming to Dallas this off-season.

So if there's no blockbuster you've got the aging free agents who won't be worth the money/term they'll sign for on a still budget team, you've got the unproven young ones whose value may still be low because of that, the next group the upside may still be there but will cost a lot Kadri, Schenn, Gagner, Ennis etc. and the one year guys like Spezza who will cost a lot in terms of trade and could walk beyond next season.

Of those 4 choices which is better? Especially considering Stasny, Grabovski may not choose to even look at Dallas anyway. Will Richards get bought out and is he worth the money he'll sign for? Does he even want to come back to Dallas considering he burned some bridges on his way out before and clearly prefers the East?

Do you believe Brayden Schenn is a large improvement on Eakin or that Kadri will leave his issues in Toronto? Are either of them worth the cost to acquire them? Is Gagner or Ennis, two smaller guys, what we want on a small team anyway? Do we want to trade a fortune for a year of Spezza considering he's never played in the physical West and can be a FA next summer?

Every one of the above have warts of some kind. That's why they're available. Some will cost significantly either dollar or traded assets out to acquire. Not all play our style either.

I've long said the biggest bang for your buck, Seguin excepted because Nill's a witch and Boston is cray, cray about trading away talented younger players, is to nab the guy who hasn't broken through. As with any trade this has definite drawbacks and can lead to giving away a good piece for a guy who ultimately falls short of what he was projected to be. But it's also how you get the guy with probably the most upside, because in 3 years they'll be established NHLers who won't be available.

There's a risk that Team A is giving up on their guy for a reason. There's also a risk that AHL play never truly transitions to NHL production. There's a legit fear that the piece you give away is better than the one you receive. I've always acknowledged those caveats. None of those guys is guaranteed to be a star in this league. But their pedigrees suggest they will and if the scouts sign off trust their take and make a bold move even though it can backfire. Doing nothing is an even bigger failure in my eyes considering the steps this organization has taken forward this year.

Sometimes guys are given up on way too soon but prospect trades happen to fill organizational holes, to clear a log jam of players who don't play well out of position for whatever reason, or just because new GM isn't in love with the previous regime's prospect and wants to acquire his guys. Heck in the case of Chiasson a team would get a guy they know is going to be in the NHL next season and not one whose either barely had a cup of coffee in the NHL or no games at all.

Back to the Anders Lee hypothetical he played great down the stretch for them but Snow is under a lot of heat, he has to make the playoffs. Chiasson, proven NHLer fills their void at wing at the cost of a guy who's best position is probably center that he's not going to play behind Tavares, Nielsen, Strome, or Nelson. In fear of getting burned Snow may still not make that trade but there's logic and reason for both sides to contemplate it.

 

[BigG44]

Chiasson for Lee is mostly a lateral trade for both teams. It's the equivalent of pushing your peas around and doesn't address anything for the Islanders at all. It's a winger for a winger for them. At least Dallas would potentially get a center. They're not even getting much more NHL experience, and they have essentially similar upside.

It's got to make sense for both teams. If they aren't getting better, what's the point of the trade?

I don't know many centers that can't play wing, and easier position with less responsibility. They'd have a built in, easy injury replacement. If anything his ability to play center makes him more valuable than Chiasson.

 

[Rune Forumwalker]

Can we please for the love of god not go into next season with Rou-Eakin-Garbutt as our 2nd line? The decline on Richards looks ugly, no thank you. Stastny isn't going to be worth the money or term he's paid. Grabovski is intriguing but I imagine he'll stay out East.

There isn't much left beyond those two for the 2nd line. The only other options would be Legwand or a post-buyout Richards.

I'm not fond of your list of young centers. The only one that is even remotely interesting to me is Spooner. It's doubtful any of the teams involved would trade a young guy like that closer to the NHL, so I'd probably go with a Grabovski/Legwand/Richards on a 3-5 year deal to give some time for the young guys in Faksa, Shore, and Dickinson to move up and see what he have in them. Once that veteran's deal is up, we have some nice young center(s) to slot into their spots.

To me, the most logical way to improve the defense is by developing our existing young talent and augmenting it with a well chosen UFA.

Sounds good to me, except the well-chosen UFA doesn't have to be a UFA at all as he could be acquired by trade ala Seguin.

 

[Hull Fan]

I'd take Nielsen in a heartbeat. Guy produces and hasn't always played with the best wingers on the Isles. Good passer and can skate. You may be right that he's more available than Lee but that's an even bigger gamble on Snow's part, that Lee can either match or exceed Nielsen's 58 points next season. They've been rightfully hoarding their youth and it's beginning to pay off but trading your 3rd leading scorer on a fantastic deal for 2 more seasons seems crazy to me.

Not playing center isn't a deal breaker to me either. At worst he's a legit 2LW or he follows the Seguin model and transitions back to center just fine.

So why would these guys be available if they're so good?

Trocheck - Not going to usurp Barkov or Bjugstad and Florida has holes to fill on defense. Bet they'd love Daley or one of our near NHL defensive prospects.

Spooner - Been questions in the past about his ability to play the "Boston" way and the belief that he's better at center than winger where his slight build works against him in board battles. Bergeron, Krejci, and Soderberg are all ahead of him and Boston wanted Chiasson in the Seguin deal.

Alexander Khokhlachev - Rumor has it he was available two years ago in the Jagr deal but Nieuwendyk didn't want him. He may be more suited to LW than Spooner, plays a physical style but has great hands. Does Boston have room for both if they move Marchand or Loui? If Spooner remains at wing there's one less spot for Koko. Whichever doesn't make the roster may be available to fill another perceived hole.

Grigorenko - Public issues in the past about returning him to junior may have soured relationships. Everybody is saying the right things now but he may still want out. Assuming Buffalo takes Bennett or Reinhart there's one spot gone, Hodgson, Ennis, and Girgensons are also in front of him. Not to mention assuming Buffalo has the 1st or 2nd overall next year McDavid or Eichel will both pass him by. At this point they don't have to trade him and logically I would think they'd want to move Ennis instead but if they want say Chiasson and another forward prospect like Guptill 2 for 1 may appeal to them.

Namestnikov - Stamkos and Drouin. Drouin spent the year playing center and excelled by all reports. He's practically a dead set lock to join the big team this fall. Tampa needs defensive help and Namestnikov may be trade bait to acquire that. Doesn't mean he's for sure on the table but Nill should make an inquiry as to his availability while he's kicking tires around the league.

 

[Hull Fan]

So what you want is a Shore/Dickinson type who is two years closer to being an NHLer? I'd be very surprised if any of those guys puts up better numbers than Eakin next year, and I don't think bringing that type of player in is good asset management because we don't need offense two years from now, we need it now. The guys you listed either play on bad-ish rebuilding teams who are hoarding young players, or the Bruins, who are freaking out about Kreijci's bad postseason and the cap crunch they are facing. They aren't the type of guys their teams are going to be fine letting go of for cheap.

I think we'd be better served trying to buy low on Gagner or Desharnais. Both guys should be available because both have their weaknesses, but you know you are getting about 40 points if you give them 2nd line minutes and 2nd line caliber linemates.

I think you vastly overestimate Eakin and the ability of Garbutt and Roussel to not only duplicate their numbers but increase them next year when they're exclusively playing the other team's best line night in and night out.

35 points from a rookie 2C is very attainable especially if Nichushkin is on the line.

That said if Boston wants to shed salary or do something crazy again I'd give up anybody not named Benn, Seguin or Nichushkin along with our 1st and another roster player or prospect of their choice to bring back Krejci. I'd just bet that one of Spooner or Koko goes before he does. In fact they'd move both Marchand and Eriksson before that happens but hey Chiarelli is crazy so who knows.

As for Lee I think you'd have to give up Daley to get him because G is probably right Chaisson isn't what they need unless he's part of a bigger deal that sends one of their young defenders back. Same might be said for Namestnikov and Tampa who would probably target a defender.

 

[Rune Forumwalker]

Per Darren Dreger:

@DarrenDreger: The Canucks have not yet asked the Dallas Stars for permission to speak with Desjardins, but expectation is they will.

Here's hoping for a Desjardins-Edler swap.

 

[Rune Forumwalker]

35 points from a rookie 2C is very attainable especially if Nichushkin is on the line.

Yes, it is. Which is what Eakin put up this year as practically a rookie. While it may have been his 2nd season, the first was a lockout shortened year in which was only 48 games.

I think he has a fair point that Eakin could outscore a one of those rookie centers.

 

[Satan]

Is the upgrade from Eakin to
Lee/Trochek/Namestnikov worth moving Daley right now?

 

[Ambassador Of Fun]

Weber

Subban

Ehrhoff
Edler/Phaneuf

Number 2 center

Myers
lesser available defensemen.

My priority list