How Will We Do With No Further Major Moves?
- Thread starter rt
- Start date
I agree that OEL probably has more value than Duchene and that the team would not be too interested in trading him, but I also was thinking that the Avs would have to give up a bit more in this trade, so it might benefit us in the long-term.
If you were an elite player at the NHL level, would you stay with the Coyotes if you could make more money and have a better chance at the cup with another team? Yes, changes have been made, but the Coyotes' future is nowhere near stable enough to make such a gamble (signing a long-term contract which OEL or Duchene would want) unless a helluva lot is accomplished this season (we make the playoffs and have a new arena deal in place)
Back on topic---
If we don't make any further changes, we will not do well this season, which is why I'm hoping for some other move (or two) that could get us closer to making the playoffs
Murf
Registered User
So much pessimism here. I haven't felt better going into a season in years.
The team on the ice is going to be our picks and prospects, coming of age. Plus some quality additions. And a new coach bringing the ideas and practices of a champion.
A major difference for me is that we didn't go through a UFA signing period picking up reclamation projects and grinders (at least no players expected to see playing time in Glendale). Think back to every UFA season in the past 10 years - there was always a couple players that you knew were never going to amount to anything, but still were going to be on the ice 10+ min per game.
Losing Chychrun hurts, but we don't know enough to judge how serious it is. OEL should have his head back in the game.
It may sound silly, but the economy is good. Attendance should be equal or better than last year, which helps with the home game atmosphere.
Maybe it will be great, maybe awful, but at least we are going to see something different. My prediction is that we will track in a similar way to the 2017 Dbacks. Hot start, lull, and by crunch time the pressure and physical demands take their toll. Finish 9th-12th, but still playing meaningful games in Feb and March.
The team on the ice is going to be our picks and prospects, coming of age. Plus some quality additions. And a new coach bringing the ideas and practices of a champion.
A major difference for me is that we didn't go through a UFA signing period picking up reclamation projects and grinders (at least no players expected to see playing time in Glendale). Think back to every UFA season in the past 10 years - there was always a couple players that you knew were never going to amount to anything, but still were going to be on the ice 10+ min per game.
Losing Chychrun hurts, but we don't know enough to judge how serious it is. OEL should have his head back in the game.
It may sound silly, but the economy is good. Attendance should be equal or better than last year, which helps with the home game atmosphere.
Maybe it will be great, maybe awful, but at least we are going to see something different. My prediction is that we will track in a similar way to the 2017 Dbacks. Hot start, lull, and by crunch time the pressure and physical demands take their toll. Finish 9th-12th, but still playing meaningful games in Feb and March.
rt
The Kinder, Gentler Version
1. Domi: 17g 39a 56p
2. Stepan: 19g 36a 55p
3. Duclair: 19g 23a 42p
4. Keller: 17g 25a 42p
5. Strome: 17g 25a 42p
6. Dvorak: 17g 20a 37p
7. Rieder: 14g 16a 30p
8. Perlini: 19g 10a 29p
9. McGinn: 12g 12a 24p
10.Richardson: 10g 14a 24p
11.Martinook: 9g 14a 23p
12.Whichever: 10g 11a 21p
1. OEL: 17g 31a 48p
2. Goligoski: 7g 31a 38p
3. Clendening: 4g 18a 22p
4. Chychrun: 7g 13a 20p
5. Hjalmarsson: 2g 15a 17p
6. Schenn: 3g 13a 16p
7. Whichever: 2g 7a 9p
221GF would've been good for 18th in the NHL last season.
2. Stepan: 19g 36a 55p
3. Duclair: 19g 23a 42p
4. Keller: 17g 25a 42p
5. Strome: 17g 25a 42p
6. Dvorak: 17g 20a 37p
7. Rieder: 14g 16a 30p
8. Perlini: 19g 10a 29p
9. McGinn: 12g 12a 24p
10.Richardson: 10g 14a 24p
11.Martinook: 9g 14a 23p
12.Whichever: 10g 11a 21p
1. OEL: 17g 31a 48p
2. Goligoski: 7g 31a 38p
3. Clendening: 4g 18a 22p
4. Chychrun: 7g 13a 20p
5. Hjalmarsson: 2g 15a 17p
6. Schenn: 3g 13a 16p
7. Whichever: 2g 7a 9p
221GF would've been good for 18th in the NHL last season.
rt
The Kinder, Gentler Version
Probably also never been a historical Coyotes season with so many guys hitting at least 17 goals. Hell, I don't know if any team has had that kind of scoring depth in the last half decade. You may think I'm being negative. I worry I'm being too positive.
Coyotes Crusader
Registered User
- Sep 29, 2016
- 11,915
- 5,587
They're all good for 20. Doesn't mean it's gonna happen but it could if everything goes well. I think rt is still waay too optismistic overall though.
rt
The Kinder, Gentler Version
- Duclair - Personally, I doubt he rebounds that much. He'll certainly improve (I hope), but I'm thinking around 30 points for him (depending on how other forwards do)
- Keller - I'll say around 20-25 for him, but that will largely be due to only playing 40-50 games with the Coyotes (at most). If he plays all 82, he might get close to your projection, but I'm thinking opposing teams will solve/cover/smother him relatively quickly, limiting his scoring output.
- Strome - He's still in the process of improving, so I'll project 25 points for him this season. I'm thinking he'll play at least 55 games (more than I thought a few weeks ago), but even if he plays all 82, he'll probably only hover around 30 points
We simply need a RH shot on the RW who can score at least 20-25 goals (or 50+ points) along with another RHD who can score around 30-35 points to ice a competitive team. Perhaps rookie camp/waiver snags might get us there, eventually.
I like your projections. I am not sold on Duclair bouncing back (think he might have a hard time beating out the competition to play on a top line) but I think you undersold Domi, Dvorak and Keller.
For S and G's
Domi 22g and 48 assists
Dvorak 22g and 30 assists
Keller 18g and 30 assists
rt
The Kinder, Gentler Version
So Strome and Keller will have significantly less effective rookie seasons than guys like Domi, Duclair and Dvorak? If you average the rookie seasons of those three you get 18g,26a,44p/82gp. The idea is that Domi, Duclair, and Dvorak were just significantly better rookies than Strome or Keller will be?
YotesFan47
Registered User
We scored 191 goals. our top goal scorer Verby is gone. I don't know how we score 44 more goals than last year. Even more monumental is going from 258 goals against last year to 203 goals against, a 55 goal swing. Chalmers will help but Smith played well. How are we going to reduce our GAA with Toch and his run and gun strategy?
I think we can make up the goals for Verby's loss and we will score more than 191 goals next year. The GAA worries me, don't see any reason that will come down significantly.
I'm rooting for your analysis to be correct
I haven't done any math or research on this l but with the ejection of Stone and Murphy, it could be possible to see our GA drop a fair margin. Add in the addition of Hammer and a 55 GA swing starts to seem plausible just purely from knowing he's a better player than those two combined.
Again I have no math or research to support this thought but it's certainly plausible, especially if Raanta play at or above the level Smith played at last year.
Sorry if this is super late, was just kinda lurking at work haha.
With the rather expensive Bernier signing, wonder if the Avs might be willing to give upp Varlamov and Duchene for some kind of package?
Domingue, Rieder and a pick?
Domingue, Rieder and a pick?
If we take Varlamov along with Duchene it'll be a cap dump and I have no idea what we'd do with him.
NORiculous
Registered User
Hmmm, that's a tough call. As a Center, I think he'll develop a bit further than Dvorak, eventually, but I think it will take him a while. Of course, I think Dvo may end up plateauing in a few seasons (hopefully I'm wrong).
I'm pretty sure Strome won't surpass Duclair's rookie numbers/value, but he better have a stronger second year than Duke (Please!).
Domi's a tough call, but that's mainly because we have to see how he turns out, but I think Strome will come close to Domi (in the long run). Of course I think Domi will be a better leader than Strome, which can be a better asset than scoring bunches of assists
This team is so unpredictable. I could see them finishing at or near the bottom and I can see them sneaking in to the playoffs. New goalie, new coach, rebound for Strome and Duclair. Keller could be a stud. Or nothing goes our way and Seattle talks heighten.
Regards,
Sherlock.
Regards,
Sherlock.
WrinkledPossum
Play Dead
- Apr 23, 2016
- 3,367
- 1,068
I generally agree with this. For every player that I think is a little high, there's one that I think is low. Like I think Perlini is low, and Duke is high. Swap Dvo and Strome. I think overall it's pretty realistic, assuming that those players stick in the NHL all year. Not sold on Keller, Strome, and Duke spending all 82 games with the Yotes.
Kaibur
Registered User
http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/i...als-all-31-teams-westgate-las-vegas-superbook
Westgate Superbook has the Yotes finishing tied for 3rd worst with New Jersey. Vegas and Vancouver at 1st and 2nd worst.
Westgate Superbook has the Yotes finishing tied for 3rd worst with New Jersey. Vegas and Vancouver at 1st and 2nd worst.
TheLegend
Megathread Gadfly
Where the hell did they put Colorado???
Nevermind I looked.... they're so far down you can't notice.
rt
The Kinder, Gentler Version
ESPN is about as informed on hockey as it is on Tuvan Throat singing or the Whirling Dervishes. ESPN probably calls it "ice hockey".
