TheDevilMadeMe
Registered User
This is a conversation that has started to take over multiple threads, so let's keep it here, please.
It would be great if something other than league scoring levels was accepted as the metric in which to compare players from different eras and in attempts to figure out how players from other eras would do in other eras.
Adjusting for league scoring levels is flawed.
IMO, Gretzky's best regular season was 1981-82 when he scored 212 points (including 92 goals). He scored 215 points in 1985-86, but he had a lot more help on his team by them. IN 1981-82, his teammates hadn't yet matured: http://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/EDM/1982.html
In 1981-82, Gretzy scored 2.65 PPG, which was 70% better than the average PPG of the next 9 scorers (1.56).
Last year the PPG of the Top Ten Scorers was 1.01, 70% better would be about 141 points.
I posted this in a main board thread recently:
The best teams shooting % last year was 10.4 and 10.5, in the NHL in 81-82 it was 15.5 range.
Gretzky would probably need guys having career years shooting % wise to have that 141 point season.
Why wouldn't shooting percentage already be factored into the decline in the numbers of the top scorers?
It probably is, in the adjusted stats, I'm not sure but Wayne would be relying a lot on assists and sure at his peak he would have more assists than great play makers like Thorton and Sedin but would he get close to the 100 needed to get to 141 points?
Or do people think that he would be a 60 goal, 80 assist guy lat season?
the top scoring team last year was TB and they scored 262 goals.
141 points would be 53.8% of those 262 goals.
Wayne scored on 50.1% of those Edmonton goals in 81-82
I guess in an absolute perfect world where he was allowed to only play offense and his teams would try to run up scores but knowing how much Wayne loved to win, I'm not sure he would put personal stats over his team.
There just seem to be too many variables that would go against his hitting that goal.
But if anyone could do it in a perfect season it would be Wayne not Mario IMO.
I've said in the past I'm not sure Gretzky would be a perennial 50 goal scorer if he played today
His strength would be playmaking... so maybe a rich man's Joe Thornton
40 goals/99 assists seems about right - depending on his linemates
I think Lemieux would be a rich man's Ovechkin/Malkin hybrid
So 66 goals/80 assists -- depending on who his linemates were
Personally, I think your method of looking at the average of the 2nd -10th best scorers (or 3rd - 10th best if #2 is an outlier) works pretty for post-expansion seasons.
Oy vey.. the John D. Rockefeller version of Joe Thornton maybe.
Yeah, it makes sense that Lemieux's playmaking wouldn't drop off by as much as Gretzky's.... except it doesn't.
130 max for Lemieux, Gretzky would not be as good as Crosby today.
130 max for Lemieux, Gretzky would not be as good as Crosby today.
Lmao thanks for the laugh.
IMO Grezt would be a lock for 160, with 170-180 being his "today version" of his 200 point years.
Prime Gretzky using early 80's skates and a wooden Titan in today's NHL probably isn't as good as what we've seen out of Crosby at his best
If Prime Gretzky had been the beneficiary of today's training methods and better equipment... then it's anybody's guess
I posted this in a main board thread recently:
I actually ran the math for this a while back - took Gretzky's margin of victory over 2-10 players and applied it to all post-lockout years: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?p=105664913&highlight=#post105664913
Conclusion - "Peak" Gretzky margins of victory will net you 185 highest (05-06), 142 lowest (14-15)
Reposting from here, minor edits for context
http://hfboards.mandatory.com/sh...#post102392729
Repost:
This is a test of Gretzky's margin of victory over players 2 to 10 (basically top 10 players). Then, we apply it to the top 2-10 players every year since the lock-up.
The reason I looked into this is, is that this methodology takes away from "freak years" where the #2 person in the league does exceptionally well, thus skewing your base number.
Gretzky's "Peak" margin of victory over top scorers 2-10 (1986-87): 79.8%
The average top 2-10 point totals that year is 101.8
Gretzky's "Prime" margin of victory over top scorers 2-10 (1982-87): 78.3%
The average top 2-10 point totals for those years are 113
So if we apply that same margin of victory against the top 2-10s since the lockout. Reversed Order:
2014/2015 = 142 Peak, 141 Prime, Top 2-10 Average: 79
2013/2014 = 147 Peak, 146 Prime, Top 2-10 Average: 82
2012/2013 (pro-rated) = 162 Peak, 162 Prime, Top 2-10 Average: 91 (pro-rated)
2011/2012 = 152 Peak, 151 Prime, Top 2-10 Average: 84
2010/2011 = 158 Peak, 157 Prime, Top 2-10 Average: 88
2009/2010 = 172 Peak, 171 Prime, Top 2-10 Average: 96
2008/2009 = 170 Peak, 169 Prime, Top 2-10 Average: 95
2007/2008 = 170 Peak, 168 Prime, Top 2-10 Average: 94
2006/2007 = 183 Peak, 182 Prime, Top 2-10 Average: 102
2005/2006 = 185 Peak, 183 Prime, Top 2-10 Average: 103
Source is hockey reference.
The reason why the math uses the average points of 2-10 is to make sure Gretzky isn't competing against himself.
Prime margin of victory is just the average of all his margins of victory from 82 to 87, all weighted equally. Probably not perfect math.
I think the person who made a point about ice time is legit though - that will have a factor into Gretzky's point totals.
Lemieux would benefit a lot from Powerplay opportunities he would create due to hooking.
I see something like:
GP-G-A-PTS
Lemieux: 70-65-90-155
Gretzky: 80-60-120-180
In my opinion, their mere presence would boost the couple of next best guys simply by example of what is possible.I always had the impression that a very good scorer act as some sort of leader for the rest of the pack to show what is possible which boost some of the next best ones.Might be wrong on that.
As of now I still consider last year as an outlier.It was a lame season, I expect offense to get better.Hopefully I'm right for everyone's sake.
I would also expect Gretzky and Lemieux coming back in their prime to change the dynamic of the whole league one way or another.