How dumb was the Marleau contract by Toronto?

[Hobnobs]

What's worse is that as long as JT is sucking up $11M, it's practically impossible for the team to contend, yet, I seem to be the only Leafs fan in the world who thinks the team should be doing whatever they can to get out from under it. Everyone else either thinks,

- Oh, that would be so "classless" to make our captain, a Toronto boy, our prized UFA signing and the guy who got us to the 2nd round, waive his NMC. What free agent would ever want to come to Toronto ever again, for as long as the next two generations of Tavareses are alive???

- Forget it. Not gonna happen. Ever. No player with a NMC has ever been moved. Ever. We're stuck with him. Think of other ways to improve the team, because this ain't it. We're not gonna contend this year or next because of him, you say? Well, we'll see. Maybe you're right. And if you are, at least it's just those two years and we can go back to being a contender in AM & MM's age 28 seasons. I don't care that we're wasting their age 26 & 27 seasons. It is what it is.

I think Leafs should as well but I also think it would just simply be too expensive to be worth it.

 

[Stephen]

The Marleau signing was not good, but in the end the problem was trading away a 1st round pick to get out of one year of the Marleau deal so that Kapanen and Johnsson could be kept at the Marleau cap hit. One year later, both Kapanen and Johnsson were gone... so you can sniff out an alternate solution to how this situation could have been managed differently, more carefully.

On an endnote, Kyle Dubas actually came close to cleaning up his mistake a year later, when he traded Kapanen to Pittsburgh for a 1st round pick, 15th overall. Seth Jarvis was picked with the 13th pick. Toronto ended up picking Rodion Amirov, RIP. If things had worked out a little differently we might have a fun ongoing Jarvis vs Amirov debate.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

I've been saying the same thing for several years. (I'd post some links to prove it, if the search function weren't down now).

A few years ago, the Leafs had something like 3 of the top 7 cap hits in the league, going to three forwards, one of whom was stuck on the second line. Only of them (Matthews) can justify that cap hit in the regular season, and none of them have been anywhere close to justifying that type of salary based on the playoffs.

Not many teams have had such a top-heavy approach (ie such a large percentage of their cap going to the top 3-5 players). And among the few that have - at least it was spread out to different positions (ie the Lightning had two forwards, a defenseman, and a goalie taking up ~40% of their cap). The Leafs had most/all of that going to their forwards (and maybe Morgan Reilly, depending on which season). No team has won using that approach.

I've read numerous posts on HFBoards from people who genuinely seemed to be Kyle Dubas fans, rather than Toronto Maple Leaf fans. In other words - they desperately try to rationalize Dubas's questionable decisions. Apparently, a GM's actual track record (one playoff series win in five years) isn't really important. This subset of fans seems to think that preserving Dubas's reputation as a genius is more important than facing the facts, acknowledging that his approach hasn't translated into any real success, and making tough decisions that would actually improve the team.

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

What's worse is that as long as JT is sucking up $11M, it's practically impossible for the team to contend, yet, I seem to be the only Leafs fan in the world who thinks the team should be doing whatever they can to get out from under it. Everyone else either thinks,

- Oh, that would be so "classless" to make our captain, a Toronto boy, our prized UFA signing and the guy who got us to the 2nd round, waive his NMC. What free agent would ever want to come to Toronto ever again, for as long as the next two generations of Tavareses are alive???

- Forget it. Not gonna happen. Ever. No player with a NMC has ever been moved. Ever. We're stuck with him. Think of other ways to improve the team, because this ain't it. We're not gonna contend this year or next because of him, you say? Well, we'll see. Maybe you're right. And if you are, at least it's just those two years and we can go back to being a contender in AM & MM's age 28 seasons. I don't care that we're wasting their age 26 & 27 seasons. It is what it is.

Yup, if they were so dead set on bringing Tavares home, then the next move should've been to move Marner or Nylander in a package for an elite D. There's just no logic in spending nearly half your cap on 4 forwards

 

[seventieslord]

I think Leafs should as well but I also think it would just simply be too expensive to be worth it.

If it allows them to contend this season and next, then it's worth it.

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

It was a bad signing and a bad trade to get rid of his contract but a lot of this is just benefit of hindsight being 20/20. Who would’ve thought at the time of the trade that the Leafs pick that year would be so high? They were in a playoff spot but then Covid hit and they were upset by CBJ in the bubble play-in round. If not for that it’s a later pick and less of a bad look. And I believe the pick was actually top 10 protected. Kinda unlucky for them the pick wound up being just outside the top 10.

Also I find it silly to judge the move based on who the other team takes with the draft pick. If the Canes took Amirov (RIP) and the Leafs got Jarvis with their pick from PIT anyways would it then not have been a bad trade for the Leafs and been a terrible trade for the Canes? No, in both situations the trade is the same — at the time it was likely to be a late 1st, wound up being a mid 1st. That’s the value you look at when grading the trade, not what the pick turns into after.

 

[Hasbro]

Yeah, position makes sense. But unless you're in a spot where it's basically a guarantee that that player is going there (i.e. Celebrini at 1 this year), it's silly to include the player.

Someone traded Buffalo a 5th round pick for Rhett Warrener at the deadline, that 5th became Ryan Miller...that doesn't make that a bad deal five years later.

Similarly, the Penguins acquired an 8th overall pick in the Jordan Staal trade. That pick became Derrick Pouliot. That doesn't mean the Penguins didn't get good value...they just can't scout.

Yeah, when I look at bad draft pick trades, particularly with the Broncos, I also look at the five players chosen after that pick.