How big of a mistake was the Paajarvi pick?

[MessierII]

As we learned that wasn't the best strategy for this team. I mean Ryan Murray isn't a world beater either but our defense was super bad for years.



I know they were, they were in love with a guy that scored in bunches at a lower level. Team need was defense at the time and everyone seemingly ignored it.

Actually no. Our D was actually a strength at the time. We had souray and Visnovsky, a very promising young group including Tom Gilbert who was coming off two huge seasons, Grebeshkov looked promising at the time as well as Smid plus steady Steve anchoring the bottom pairing. A big skilled winger to play with Hemsky was the biggest team need at the time.

 

[Digger12]

WITCH!!! its almost like you know whos going to develope correctly...also why is hornqvist a center? Zetterberg?

As for the actual topic, talent doesnt just disappear you dont just wake up and youre bad at hockey. Development of players is what creates nhl players. We failed PRV, Gagner, Eberle, RNH, Hall, Yak and Draisaitl, the only players in there you could say was the wrong pick was Gagner, everyone else was BPA and we handled them so poorly.

Eberle in your list makes no sense to me. How did they "fail" him? IMO they developed Eberle about as well as could be expected, throwing him in the AHL for 2-3 years wasn't going to make him any better than he is now. He's a small, average skating skilled forward with great hands. He is what he is, and for a 22nd overall pick I'd say he's covered the bet and then some.

Even Gagner I'd say you could debate. Yes his NHL career isn't currently where I'm sure he wants it to be, but would an extra year or two in junior playing 30+ minutes per night in London's star-centric system where he'd rack up easy points really have made any difference to the pro player he ended up becoming? He was always going to be small and a mediocre skater no matter what. Once again, he is what he is. Perhaps things would've been different way back in his rookie year if Jarret Stoll hadn't completely crapped the bed as the incumbent 2nd line center to start that year, we'll never know.

 

[Jumptheshark]

Monday morning QBING again. At the time the we were very happy

 

[Paralyzer]

Actually no. Our D was actually a strength at the time. We had souray and Visnovsky, a very promising young group including Tom Gilbert who was coming off two huge seasons, Grebeshkov looked promising at the time as well as Smid plus steady Steve anchoring the bottom pairing. A big skilled winger to play with Hemsky was the biggest team need at the time.

Umm, actually, I think you forgot that was in 2008-2009. The year we drafted Yakupov, our defence looked liked this:

Ryan Whitney
Nick Schultz
Andy Sutton
Jeff Petry
Ladislav Smid
Cam Barker
Corey Potter

Woof.

 

[rboomercat90]

Nobody knew Paajarvi was that averse to contact considering he was 6'2 or whatever.

I've posted this before so I guess I'll say it again. What struck me the most when I saw him play live the first time is how much bigger he was than pretty much everyone else on our smurf team. It's a shame he could never develop a physical game. That's on him though. That said, we didn't do him any favors with his development. He was up and down from the AHL a lot in his first few years when his play didn't seem to be any worse than a lot of other guys on the team. I'm guessing that confused him. Many different coaches with different messages probably didn't help either.

Looking back at the disaster that was the Lowe, Tambellini, Mactavish and their revolving door of coaches era I don't think it mattered who we would have drafted. The team would have screwed up anybody they took.

 

[DreamTheatre]

I wouldn’t say it was that bad of a pick.

Sure Ellis and Kulikov would have been great looking back at it, but we traded Paajarvi at a great time and got really good value for him. So it really wasn’t a waste.

Now, turning all of that into Reinhart is another story...

 

[Jumptheshark]

At the time nearly everyone liked the deal

 

[Aceboogie]

I wouldn’t say it was that bad of a pick.

Sure Ellis and Kulikov would have been great looking back at it, but we traded Paajarvi at a great time and got really good value for him. So it really wasn’t a waste.

Now, turning all of that into Reinhart is another story...

Those 2 deals actually left us in a net zero spot. Took an upcoming bust and did somethings, ended up with an upcoming bust

Getting Perron for MPS was kind of lucky, as was getting 1st from Pens AND THEN having them miss playoffs for first time in like forever was really lucky. We should have put our chips away and went home but we went for one more roll of the dye and lost it all

We walked into the casino with $5 and left with $5. At some points we had $100 but got a bit cocky and lost it

 

[Joey Moss]

Hindsight means nothing.

Paajarvi was the clear selection at the time. He's probably one of the most surprising busts in recent memory.

 

[Aceboogie]

Hindsight means nothing.

Paajarvi was the clear selection at the time. He's probably one of the most surprising busts in recent memory.

MPS was in NHL for 250+ NHL games which is solid. He still has a chance at ~100-150 more. A bust yes but still had some success.

Here are some other ones that could be following or are already there:
2010: Connolly, Burmistrov, Milcrath, Campbell
2011(these are all guys trending from here on out): Strome, Seimens, Murphy, Bartschi
2012: Yak, Reinhart, Pouliot
2013: Lindholm, Nichuskin
2014: MDC, Virtanen

 

[Senor Catface]

It was the right pick at the time. It was big news he came to us at 10. Easy decision at the time.

Simple as that.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

Hindsight means nothing.

Paajarvi was the clear selection at the time. He's probably one of the most surprising busts in recent memory.

Define bust? He's tracking above average for players drafted 10th overall (if you sort by year)
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/draft_by_pick.php?position=10



If we agree scouting got 'better' around 2000-ish. Then the only players in the past 16 years who's out-performed MPS is Jonas Brodin, Cody Hodgson *who is out of the league), Andrei Kostitsyn, Eric Nystrom, and Michael Frolik.

None of them are burning down our villages.

 

[McGhostbuster]

I remember wanting Zach Kassian at that draft. We all know how that turned out.

 

[ManofSteel55]

MPS was in NHL for 250+ NHL games which is solid. He still has a chance at ~100-150 more. A bust yes but still had some success.

Here are some other ones that could be following or are already there:
2010: Connolly, Burmistrov, Milcrath, Campbell
2011(these are all guys trending from here on out): Strome, Seimens, Murphy, Bartschi
2012: Yak, Reinhart, Pouliot
2013: Lindholm, Nichuskin
2014: MDC, Virtanen

Why in the blue hell would you have Lindolm on this list? And yes, I know its Elias and not Hampus.

 

[Aceboogie]

Why in the blue hell would you have Lindolm on this list? And yes, I know its Elias and not Hampus.

Why wouldnt he be included in the "tracking to be bust" list. Many Carolina fans are very down on him. To start this season: 1 assist in 9 games

Last 2 seasons he had 39 points apiece in 81 and 82 games. Rookie year 21 points in 58 games. He is a career 0.43 ppg player. Which is really getting into 3rd liner terriorty. And fact his point totals have stagnated and so far regressed is another bad picture

He could be following the Gagner/Hodgson path (both of whom had better seasons first 4 years in league). His numbers are more in MPS territory 250 games in then. Could also pull a Kadri and break out. But right now he could go either way and tracking pretty poorly

here are some Canes fans recently on him:

Would probably have been better off not being rushed into the NHL at 18 but management I guess thought he could do what Jeff Skinner did his rookie year.

I'm not sure what his future holds in Carolina. It may not be the worst thing in the world for a change of scenery.

I don't want to call him a bust, but for someone who not only was picked ahead of Sean Monahan, but also at #5, he hasn't exactly lived up to expectations.

He hasn't been as bad as his numbers would indicate by any means, but yeah it just hasn't clicked for him the way everyone had hoped it would. I think we lucked out a good bit with Rask looking every bit the part that we expected Lindholm to be playing by this point.

Get someone that just flat out loves to put the puck on net with him and TT next season (Gauthier?) and watch his production take the next step in to being a top 6 guy.

What does that mean? He hasn't shown any dissatisfaction with being here. He just hasn't played well, the end.

he makes like five plays every game where you can see that he could be great, but the rest of his game is so apprehensive and average that it doesn't come together

he will stick in the league for sure, but might never turn into the backstrom-lite he was expected to be

 

[nabob]

I've posted this before so I guess I'll say it again. What struck me the most when I saw him play live the first time is how much bigger he was than pretty much everyone else on our smurf team. It's a shame he could never develop a physical game. That's on him though. That said, we didn't do him any favors with his development. He was up and down from the AHL a lot in his first few years when his play didn't seem to be any worse than a lot of other guys on the team. I'm guessing that confused him. Many different coaches with different messages probably didn't help either.

Looking back at the disaster that was the Lowe, Tambellini, Mactavish and their revolving door of coaches era I don't think it mattered who we would have drafted. The team would have screwed up anybody they took.

Totally agree with your last point. Can't have something in a toxic environment and expect it to not get poisoned.

As other posters have mentioned, he got absolutely rocked a few times in a short span. Not a single teammate flinched or thought of having the kids back, he became intimidated and his game changed.

 

[HockeyGuy1964]

Anybody who thinks Ellis, or anybody else, from that draft year would've turned out to be the same player had the Oilers drafted them is delusional.

 

[Kestrel]

Yeah yeah BPA and all that. If the Oilers had any semblance of drafting smartly maybe we're not staring at 11 years without playoffs.

At some point the team needed to get some defense.

You ALWAYS BPA when you have a good idea of who that is, or you trade your pick, and draft the guy you want later. Drafting for need while leaving the BPA on the table is poor resource management.

 

[Aceboogie]

Anybody who thinks Ellis, or anybody else, from that draft year would've turned out to be the same player had the Oilers drafted them is delusional.

Ellis especially. Here you had a small offensive D who was comparable to Schultz defensively as a prospect. Ellis needed 2 extra OHL seasons, 2 AHL seasons and 3 seasons of uber sheltering on the Preds. Probably the best team in league for developing D. He had everything go right for him developmentally.

Oilers would have had him in NHL the year after he was drafted.

Funny thing is that even point to Ellis as being this superior option. But even then he has a career high 32 points and is good 2nd pairing D. The guy is essentially Jeff Petry. We missed out but even in the best of the best cases we missed out on a 2nd pairing D

 

[Paralyzer]

You ALWAYS BPA in the First Round when you have a good idea of who that is, or you trade your pick, and draft the guy you want later. Drafting for need while leaving the BPA on the table is poor resource management.

Fixed for you. BPA only goes so far until after the 1st. After that, picking by need works too as long as it's not a far reach from his projected draft spot.

 

[harpoon]

Only hindsight can make a person say this with any seriousness.

He was the consensus #1 at the draft and there were only 3 options for #1. Yakupov, Galchenyuk (who missed the entire season with an injury, basically a mystery box, that isn't exactly lighting the world on fire) and Ryan Murray a very good LHD without an offensive game really (Basically a less physical Chris Phillips, spend the next 3 years laid up with injuries).

There were no other options for #1 in this draft. There was Forsberg, but he fell like stone passed a number of teams.

These threads should just be combined into a "Was it a mistake for me becoming an Oilers fan" thread.

Everything looks simple and easy in hindsight.

Why are you so offended by this thread Jimmi?

Most of what happens on hfoil is hindsight.

Lots and lots of posters on this board thought MPS was going to be godlike in this league.

Perhaps you were one of them and that's why this thread is touching a sore spot?

Meanwhile, good ol' Eberle drafted at 22 is pretty much the only Oiler in recent years who has out performed his draft status. Still gets **** on at hfoil on a regular basis.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Why are you so offended by this thread Jimmi?

Most of what happens on hfoil is hindsight.

Lots and lots of posters on this board thought MPS was going to be godlike in this league.

Perhaps you were one of them and that's why this thread is touching a sore spot?

Meanwhile, good ol' Eberle drafted at 22 is pretty much the only Oiler in recent years who has out performed his draft status. Still gets **** on at hfoil on a regular basis.

No because there's enough point derisive "conversation" on here, that bringing up utter BS that serves no other purpose but trying to find something to flog the organization with is insufferable. Made more insufferable but how little thought was given to the reality of Hindsight and the reality of the draft pick in the moment he was drafted. The point is completely shallow and completely hollow. We have enough of that here on things that Actually relate to the current team, more isn't welcomed or needed.

Edit: There's so little actual conversation related to the team on here, because it's always more of stuff like this.

 

[harpoon]

No because there's enough point derisive "conversation" on here, that bringing up utter BS that serves no other purpose but trying to find something to flog the organization with is insufferable. Made more insufferable but how little thought was given to the reality of Hindsight and the reality of the draft pick in the moment he was drafted. The point is completely shallow and completely hollow. We have enough of that here on things that Actually relate to the current team, more isn't welcomed or needed.

Well, I thought MPS was junk from day one, so I'm enjoying the thread.
Do feel a bit sorry for the kid being bounced from the Blues lineup for Yakupov though. Yikes.

Edit to your edit - yeah, we need more conversation about Looch/Ebs off the top line and how Larsson/Hall trade was a win/win for everybody.
Not enough of that talk floating around. Maybe some more mock lineups that hf posters think would crush the league?
There is a thread ignore feature for a reason.

 

[Aceboogie]

No because there's enough point derisive "conversation" on here, that bringing up utter BS that serves no other purpose but trying to find something to flog the organization with is insufferable. Made more insufferable but how little thought was given to the reality of Hindsight and the reality of the draft pick in the moment he was drafted. The point is completely shallow and completely hollow. We have enough of that here on things that Actually relate to the current team, more isn't welcomed or needed.

Edit: There's so little actual conversation related to the team on here, because it's always more of stuff like this.

I agree. Is having the conversation "Why did we pick Milan Kytar two spots above Jamie Benn?" a meaningful debate? Its purely hindsight talk. MPS didnt work out- meh who cares. There is 3/4 guys from every drafts top 15 that dont work out, 1 or 2 inside top 10. Thats the nature of picking 18 year olds.

The absolute worst threads are the who should we have picked threads? Oh yeah our team would have been rubbing shoulders with the other big powerhouses if we had taken Seguin, Landeskog, Murray. Totally it was just the picks problem, not anything else. Everything would have been TOTALLY different

If you want to have a discussion. Have one like- how did we mess MPS up, where did we go wrong, or "the vast history of underperforming top 15 picks, why does it happen"

The worst debate is "Well MPS sucked, if we had picked Ellis he would have been our top pairing D forsure, it just would have happened"

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

I agree. Is having the conversation "Why did we pick Milan Kytar two spots above Jamie Benn?" a meaningful debate? Its purely hindsight talk. MPS didnt work out- meh who cares. There is 3/4 guys from every drafts top 15 that dont work out, 1 or 2 inside top 10. Thats the nature of picking 18 year olds.

The absolute worst threads are the who should we have picked threads? Oh yeah our team would have been rubbing shoulders with the other big powerhouses if we had taken Seguin, Landeskog, Murray. Totally it was just the picks problem, not anything else. Everything would have been TOTALLY different

If you want to have a discussion. Have one like- how did we mess MPS up, where did we go wrong, or "the vast history of underperforming top 15 picks, why does it happen"

The worst debate is "Well MPS sucked, if we had picked Ellis he would have been our top pairing D forsure, it just would have happened"

The Hardest part I have is the threads, of this ilk, tend to ignore what the situation was at the time the decision was made. In this case, PRV was a hell of a get at #10 at the draft.

If it's a conversation of Kelly v. Doan or MAP v. Parise, there are things that can be discussed there, because the choices aren't so "clear", but complaining about a pick who didn't work as if he is now the same player he "was" when he was drafted, if that makes sense, is completely pointless.