Hockey's Future Top 50 Prospects Spring 2006: 11-25

[Legionnaire]

Caniac,

In know way is Lehtonen an unknown quantity. He lead his team to the FEL title at the age of only 18. We're talking a men's professional league. At the same time he was doing this, MAF gaffed away a gold against boys.


I really hope that you can see the difference that he's made on the Thrasher too. From a no lo contenre, to a contender for the playoffs since he's been back. Waddell is not a stupid man. He would not have guarenteed playoffs without a healthy Kari.

Honest to God, he's the best goaltending prospect I've ever seen. Roy stepped right in and started winning big, Hasek took the back seat a while, but I swear to you KL could backstop the Thrash to the Cup THIS YEAR if they add one more defenseman

 

[Vagrant]

Caniac,

In know way is Lehtonen an unknown quantity. He lead his team to the FEL title at the age of only 18. We're talking a men's professional league. At the same time he was doing this, MAF gaffed away a gold against boys.


I really hope that you can see the difference that he's made on the Thrasher too. From a no lo contenre, to a contender for the playoffs since he's been back. Waddell is not a stupid man. He would not have guarenteed playoffs without a healthy Kari.

Honest to God, he's the best goaltending prospect I've ever seen. Roy stepped right in and started winning big, Hasek took the back seat a while, but I swear to you KL could backstop the Thrash to the Cup THIS YEAR if they add one more defenseman

I don't doubt anything about Lehtonen when it comes to how substantial of a goaltending prospect that he is, it's just that people who aren't able to watch as many games of him before or after the draft jumped on his bandwagon because they knew nothing negative of his play. The main reason that many were attracted to his reputation was because of his relative obscurity as compared to the usual suspects that were bantered about since the time they were 15 and being drafted into the CHL.

Fleury was a victim of this. He was hyped to such great heights before he even laced up skates in the WJC or a professional game that people expected him to be the second coming of Martin Brodeur as soon as he hit the ice. That simply wasn't going to happen, and now people are sold on the fact that he's a bust or he's not worthy of the 1st overall selection. Goaltenders take time to develop.

I'm not saying Lehtonen isn't a great goaltender. To the contrary, he might be the best prospect out there as far as i'm concerned. However, it annoyed me that he became the consensus "hot" choice due to the fact that people were more exposed to Fluery and thus saw more about him that they didn't like or simply resented all the press he recieved.

 

[Vagrant]

Toivonen has shined on every level as well and he has been far more impressive at top levels, he was brilliant in WJC, he was brilliant in FEL, he was brilliant in AHL and he's shining in NHL as well.

NHL numbers are not even close with these two so I have to ask again, what has Ward done to warrant a spot ahead Toivonen? IMHO nothing.

Ward has more wins.

In my opinion, what he has done to warrant a spot over Toivonen are all the accomplishments that I mentioned earlier. If he wasn't a Carolina Hurricanes prospect, then chances are he'd rank even higher on the list because of the hype train. His accomplishments in the WHL were unreal and almost inhuman, and his first AHL season trumped that even.

Meh, we'll just have to agree to disagree. Ward is ranked higher for now and that's just how it is. Maybe by the time the next ranking comes out, one will have extended themselves away from the rest of the pack and this arguement will be a moot point.

 

[Pepper]

In my opinion, what he has done to warrant a spot over Toivonen are all the accomplishments that I mentioned earlier.

That's my point. Toivonen has accomplished even more than Ward at this point. So what gives Ward the nod over Toivonen?

His accomplishments in the WHL were unreal and almost inhuman, and his first AHL season trumped that even.

WHL is a junior league with players from 15 to 20 years old. I don't want to take anything away from Ward but it is not a professional league.

Meh, we'll just have to agree to disagree. Ward is ranked higher for now and
that's just how it is. Maybe by the time the next ranking comes out, one will have extended themselves away from the rest of the pack and this arguement will be a moot point.

I'm cool with that, I just wanted some intelligent discussion about the rankings and I got it so kudos to you.

I fully agree with your last paragraph.

 

[Draft Guru]

Schremp ahead of Bobby Ryan?

 

[Kirk- NEHJ]

It depends on how you assess potential, IMO. Ward has dominated every level he has ever played at. Every single one. Take a look at his stats from the WHL and the AHL during last season. He was twice the WHL's goaltender of the year and was the MVP of the WHL in his final season. He was named the CHL's best goaltender that year as well. Many claimed that his numbers were so good in the WHL because of Phaneuf and Woywitka, but they were proven wrong in his first pro season. He went into the AHL last year and recorded 6 shutouts while maintaining a 1.99 GAA and .937 save percentage. All of that as a rookie goaltender in his first pro season. Toivonen didn't even replicate those numbers in his second year in the AHL, which was the lockout season. Again, I don't want to be misconstrued as a Toivonen basher, because he's an outstanding young goaltender.

It's a mystery to me how one can judge potential anyways. Ward has had games where he has looked like a franchise caliber goaltender and so has Toivonen. They have both been fairly inconsistant, as young goaltenders are, but I think the differance is negligible to say the least. They were both drafted in the first round of the 2002 Draft, and neither has done anything to hurt their stock. They are still as close as the draft selections would indicate, and I feel that Ward is just a hair better at this point. Granted, Ward's numbers haven't been great recently but that will be a passing thing. We shouldn't jump so quick to judgement based upon 20 respective NHL games for both men. If that was the criteria, then they would all be behind Ray Emery.

It must also be stressed that the differance between #12 and #17 on these lists are very marginal. There is so much young talent coming into the NHL right now, that those rankings can be just downright personal preference and one person to the next might tell you differant things about both players. I just get upset at people who give the edge in "potential", which is a very liquid asset, to the player that is more mysterious and more unknown. Kari Lehtonen had this same luxary over Marc-Andre Fleury, and it was just as annoying then as it is now. People always want to take the unknown quantity.

I'm sorry, Caniac. I've seen Ward and Toivonen, talked to pro scouts about the two and their upside, and while they are divided- some are Ward guys and some are Toivonen guys, HF totally blew it on this one.

These guys are close- and you can definitely make a case to take one or the other. I don't think any scout would agree with the disparity your list shows. That's just bad math on your part. Don't let the tail wag the dog, guys.

Maybe the hype surrounding Toivonen was his undoing (as in the folks putting together the list were sick of hearing about how good he's going to be), but I don't see how anyone can rate Ward eight spots higher than Toivonen when he has not been as effective at the NHL level. Last year's AHL stats don't mean as much. Let us not forget that Toivonen suffered a knee injury mid-season that forced him to miss over a month. He came back and actually outdueled Ward in the playoffs. So, we can pretty much make numbers say what we want them to.

And, I don't want to hear about Boston's "better" defense. They still give up a lot of quality scoring chances- the difference is- Toivonen and Tim Thomas have made some big saves, whereas Andrew Raycroft has not.

Toivonen and Ward are close. Ward the 12th-best prospect? Maybe. But he doesn't deserve to be eight spots ahead of the other guy. The numbers speak for themselves, and Ward has gotten better offensive support from Carolina's lineup than Toivonen has.