[HFNHL] Columbus Blue Jackets Top 20 Update - January 2009

Ohio Jones

Game on...
Feb 28, 2002
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Time for our mid-season update of the Blue Jackets’ farm system, recently rated in the top 5 in the HFNHL in terms of overall talent (2008 HFNHL Prospect Handbook). That report commented on the balanced depth of prospects the Jackets have managed to accumulate over the past couple of seasons, but correctly pointed out that despite having quality prospects at every position, the Jackets appear to be short of the kind of game-breakers that become franchise players.

Organizational strengths
Goaltending
Two-way forwards

Organizational weaknesses
Defensive depth
Top-line forwards

Top 20 at a glance (previous ranking)

  1. G Simeon Varlamov (5)
  2. LW Max Pacioretty (4)
  3. C Zach Boychuk (2)
  4. LD Ryan McDonagh (3)
  5. G Leland Irving (6)
  6. LW Nikolai Kulemin (1)
  7. C Maxime Sauve (13)
  8. RD Michael Sauer (8)
  9. C Trevor Lewis (9)
  10. C/LW Patrice Cormier (18)
  11. C/D Brian Boyle (7)
  12. LD Brendan Smith (12)
  13. RW Robin Figren (11)
  14. C/LW Logan MacMillan (10)
  15. C/W Trevor Smith (NR)
  16. C Derek Stepan (HM)
  17. RD Justin Schultz (19)
  18. RD Cory Fienhage (20)
  19. LW Jerome Flaake (HM)
  20. LD Kevin Montgomery (HM)


Columbus Top 20 Profiles – January 2009

1. G Simeon Varlamov (5)
Acquired: Trade 2008
The key to trading Henrik Sedin to Nashville, Varlamov is looking increasingly like the real thing. His gaa and save% in the AHL are solid, an dhe shone in his first experience at the NHL level, going 2-0 in two starts with a sparkling 1.5 gaa and .953 save%. There’s pressure on him in both Washington’s and Columbus’ systems (from Neuvirth and Irving, respectively), but he looks more than ready to rise to the challenge. At worst, he should be a solid 1A in net.
Style comparison: Ilya Bryzgalov
Projects as: Franchise goaltender
Grade: 9.0C

2. LW Max Pacioretty (4)
Acquired: 1st round, 2007 (28th overall)
Max took a few weeks to adjust to the pro game, but since then it’s been gangbusters for the Michigan product. After putting up 22 points in 31 games with Hamilton of the AHL, he got called up to the Habs, where he’s tallied 2 goals and 4 points in 8 games. The real question now is who gets moved if Montreal acquires Lecavalier - you can bet the Lightning will be asking for Max to be part of the package going back.
Style comparison: Erik Cole
Projects as: Top-line power forward
Grade: 8.5B

3. C Zach Boychuk (2)
Acquired: 1st round, 2008 (13th overall)
Boychuk has had his struggles this season coming back from major surgery over the summer, but it hasn’t slowed him down much, as he’s scoring at more than a point per game both in the Dub (22/12/15/27) and with Canada’s gold medal-winning U20 WJC squad (6-4-3-7). He didn’t look out of place in a 2-game stint with the hurricanes at the start of the year, either.
Style comparison: Derek Roy
Projects as: Two-way banger on a scoring line
Grade: 8.5B

4. LD Ryan McDonagh (3)
Acquired: 1st round, 2007 (13th overall)
A bright spot on a disappointing US WJC squad, McDonagh managed to pot 3 assists in 6 games while leading the team in +/- at +5. While he may never be more than a support weapon offensively at the NHL level, he has managed to nearly double his production at the college level (22/4/7/11 versus 40/5/7/12 in his freshman year). Wisconsin is a serious threat for the Frozen Four, which should add to McDonagh’s big game experience.
Style comparison: Ed Jovanovski
Projects as: Two-way #2-3 defenceman
Grade: 8.0C

5. G Leland Irving (6)
Acquired: Trade 2007
Showing well in his first pro season, putting up solid numbers (2.32, .906) and seriously outplaying more experienced teammate Matt Keetley. Irving has the potential to be an NHL starter, but needs to prove he can steal games for his team, rather than benefitting from the players and system in front of him.
Style comparison: Ed Belfour
Projects as: Starting goaltender
Grade: 8.0C

6. LW Nikolai Kulemin (1)
Acquired: 2nd round, 2006 (55th overall)
Kulemin started off his first NHL season on a tear with linemates Mikhail Grabovski and Niklas Hagman, scoring a goal in his first NHL game and earning 9 points in his first 17 (including a few highlight-reel plays). Adjusting to North America and the NHL caught up with him, however, as he put up just 5 points in the next 23 games, sparking a 3-game demotion to the Marlies. He’s back up with the big club, but currently sitting out with an ankle injury. Hopefully on his return he can show more of the moxie that made him a success in Russia; without question the talent is there.
Style comparison: Daniel Alfredsson
Projects as: Two-way scoring winger
Grade: 7.5B

7. C Maxime Sauve (13)
Acquired: 2nd round, 2008 (43rd overall)
In his first full season with the Foreurs, Sauve is leading the team (42/18/33/51) - a 12-point lead over the next highest scorer. Was disappointed not to receive an invite to Canada’s U20 team. He needs to commit further on defensive zone coverage, and on playing through traffic. The upside is certainly there, but onyl time will tell if he can convert it into performance at the pros, or whether he’ll disappear like so many other Q grads.
Style comparison: Patrice Bergeron
Projects as: Second-line play-maker
Grade: 7.5C

8. RD Michael Sauer (8)
Acquired: Trade 2007
Safe: that’s the best word for Sauer. The hulking blueliner continues his steady play for the Wolf Pack this season (31/1/5/6, even +/-, 29 pim), and is a likely candidate for a call-up at some point this year. He plays with an edge, but doesn’t pull himself out of position to make a hit. He displays decent mobility, although he can still be beaten to the outside every now and then. Sauer doesn’t tend to rush or panic - he stays calm and keeps his focus, demonstrating exceptional positioning and virtually always making the smart, simple play. He’s a year or two away from a regular NHL spot.
Style comparison: Jason Smith
Projects as: Top-4 defensive defenceman
Grade: 7.0B

9. C Trevor Lewis (9)
Acquired: Trade 2008
Sophomore pro Lewis was solid in a late December call-up, scoring his first NHL goal along with two assists in 6 games before heading back down to Manchester, where he leads the Monarchs in scoring (37/10/18/28), which is a good sign for his growing comfort offensively in that he’s already surpassed his rookie year’s production. He still needs another year or two in the minors to develop his confidence with the puck; his ability without the puck is unquestioned. Blessed with top-flight skating and outstanding hockey IQ, he also needs to continue adding strength, but it's really just a matter of time before he's up with the big club on a full-time basis.
Style comparison: Mike Fisher
Projects as: Two-way second-line center
Grade: 7.0B

10. C/W Patrice Cormier (18)
Acquired: 2nd round, 2008 (58th overall)
Attractively versatile, Cormier looks to be a lock as a pro - he can check, fight and crash the crease, although his scoring (33/14/15/29 with Rimouski in the QMJHL) likely will not project to top-line NHL duties. Cormier demonstrated at the World Juniors that any attitude questions are behind him, dominating the faceoff dot for Canada in a strictly checking role (6/1/2/3).
Style comparison: Keith Primeau
Projects as: Second-line power pivot
Grade: 7.0B

11. C/D Brian Boyle (7)
Acquired: Trade 2007
Boyle’s second pro season has been a bit of a mystery so far. Having finally settled on the Center position with the Kings, Boyle has played several NHL games in two different stints, but has been unable to replicate his production from last year despite dominating at the AHL level. He saw only limited minutes, however, as the Kings have a plethora of talented young forwards on the roster, so it may just be a matter of time. Boyle still needs to work on his skating, and on using his tremendous physical size to greater effect in games.
Style comparison: Nik Antropov
Projects as: Two-way power pivot
Grade: 6.5B

12. LD Brendan Smith (12)
Acquired: 3rd round, 2007 draft (86th overall)
Received an invite to the Canadian U20 team camp, but didn’t make the final cut. The reason: his defensive awareness and commitment continues to be a problem. The offence is certainly there, however (21/7/11/18 for Wisconsin in the NCAA), and at least he’s managed to stay healthy through this point in the year.
Style comparison: Joe Corvo
Projects as: 2nd-pairing puck mover/PP specialist
Grade: 7.0C

13. RW Robin Figren (11)
Acquired: 4th round, 2006 draft (98th overall)
Looking decent in his first pro season, back in Sweden with Djurgardens (36/2/6/8), Figren is showing that he’s over his injury woes from last year. He continues to round out his game, and is expected back in North America next season to play for Bridgeport.
Style comparison: Jason Blake
Projects as: Second line complimentary scorer
Grade: 7.0C

14. LW Trevor Smith (NR)
Acquired: Signed as a Free Agent, 2007
Smith has really stepped it up in his second pro season, leading the Sound tigers in goals (38/20/14/34), as well as potting a goal in his first call-up to the NHL. His hands and anticipation make up for average foot speed, but how well that translates to an extended stay in the NHL remains to be seen.
Style comparison: Jason Williams
Projects as: Second line complimentary scorer
Grade: 7.0C

15. C/LW Logan MacMillan (10)
Acquired: 1st round, 2007 (20th overall)
Coming off an injury-filled year, MacMillan has yet to perform close to the level he achieved when centering Jakub Voracek for Halifax, which suggests his future in the NHL will be in more of a checking role. Still, he has a big frame, good mobility, hockey sense and leadership characteristics, so Columbus is confident he’ll find a role for himself.
Style comparison: Trevor Linden
Projects as: Third-line pivot with upside
Grade: 6.5B

16. C Derek Stepan (HM)
Acquired: 4th round, 2008 (103rd overall)
The transition from high school to college hasn’t slowed Stepan down one bit; the freshman boasts an impressive 20 points in 25 games for the machine that is the University of Wisconsin Badgers. A true all-rounder, he needs to continue to develop his strength and skating.
Style comparison: Joe Pavelski
Projects as: Scoring-line pivot
Grade: 7.0C

17. RD Justin Schultz (19)
Acquired: 2nd round, 2008 (59th overall)
Schultz is completing his BCHL career prior to going to college. He is among Westside’s leading scorers, and continues to demonstrate breathtaking mobility. He needs to conitnue to develop his defensive awareness and add strength.
Style comparison: Brian Rafalski
Projects as: #3 two-way defenceman
Grade: 7.0C

18. RD Cory Fienhage (20)
Acquired: 3rd round, 2008 (90th overall)
A late conversion to the blueline, Fienhage is showing some growing pains as a college freshman, but his size, skating and sound fundamentals still project well. He was invited to Team Canada’s WJC Selection Camp, which appears to have given him a boost, as his play at North Dakota has picked up recently.
Style comparison: Francois Beauchemin
Projects as: #4 two-way defenceman with bite
Grade: 7.0C

19. LW Jerome Flaake (HM)
Acquired: 5th round, 2008 (147th overall)
Although the Jackets were disappointed that Flaake was not released by his German club team to come to the CHL, they couldn’t complain about his WJC performance, where he led the German side with 3 goals and 5 points in 6 games. Unfortunately, one player is not enough to achieve success and Germany was relegated to Tier II. National Team Director Ulf Samuelsson is extensively lobbying to have Flaake come to North America and continue his development next season, as are the NHL Maple Leafs.
Style comparison: Johan Franzen
Projects as: Second-line power forward
Grade: 7.0C

20. LD Kevin Montgomery (HM)
Acquired: 3rd round, 2006 (77th overall)
Slick QB looking more impressive as an overager with this year’s edition of the ever-dominant London Knights. Will have a long playoff run (and possibly Memorial Cup appearance) before making the move to Lowell this Spring, where he will need to show he can be a physical as well as offensive presence.
Style comparison: Anton Stralman
Projects as: Third-pairing puck mover
Grade: 7.0C


Honourable Mentions

LW Dane Byers (NR)
Hulking checker was producing at nearly a point per game with Hartford before going out with a long-term injury; too bad, as he’s exactly the sort of physical presence the Rangers need right now. He’s keeping himself busy providing colour commentary on the Wolf Pack broadcasts; funny kid.

RW Jeremy Colliton (HM)
Colliton has managed to shake off some of the problems that dogged him throughout his first two pro seasons, but his limited scoring at the AHL increasingly suggest that any NHL future will be as a 4th-line energy forward.

G John Curry (HM)
Curry has played tolerably well in his second pro season, but nowhere near the level of his championship run last year. He is quickly being passed by the other capable young netminders in the (HFNHL) Jackets’ system, and his contract may make it difficult to justify re-signing him this summer.

G Ryan Daniels (HM)
Ottawa’s lack of depth at the goaltending position may be the only thing working in Daniels’ favour, as he has looked all-too-human this season with the Petes. Buried behind Varlamov and Irving, he may never see the HFNHL with Columbus.

C Nathan Davis (14)
Davis’ first pro season has been a bit of a disappointment so far; it’s possible that lingering injury troubles have affected his ability to adjust to the speed of the pro game. Columbus will hope for a better second half. He is still strong on draws, blessed with speed, good hands and vision, so the potential is there.

LD Alexei Emelin (15)
Emelin (a.k.a. Yemelin) has emerged as one of the KHL’s top stay-at-home defencemen. The question remains: will he ever come to North America? With the global economic downturn taking a bite out of KHL finances, perhaps the prospect of guaranteed contract will be enough to lure Emelin to the Habs’ training camp next year.

LW Blake Geoffrion (HM)
The Wisconsin Junior picked up where he left off last season. While still producing at somewhat less than a point per game, his defensive prowess and physical play project well as a third-line banger in the HFNHL.

RD Eric Gryba (HM)
Hulking defender developing with glacial swiftness at BU, but would give Ottawa needed beef on the back end.

C Adam Henrique (NR)
Last year, Henrique (recently acquired from Washington) was buried behind Josh Bailey; this year it’s phenom Taylor Hall taking all the icetime. Nevertheless, Henrique has managed to almost double his scoring, and is showing outstanding two-way play.

RW Sergei Korostin (17)
Arriving in the OHL on a deep London Knights squad, Korostin was struggling to adjust before a trade to Peterborough opened the door. Now he’s playing at nearly a point-per-game pace, and demonstrating the speed, skill and mobility that made him an early round selection in both the HFNHL and NHL. In a limited role he was not as effective at the 2009 WJCs, however, and so has been passed by Petersson on the Jackets’ depth chart.

C Andrei Loktionov (HM)
Great vision, puck handling and hockey sense. Injuries kept him off the ice at the World Juniors, but he’s managing a point per game with Windsor in the OHL.

RD Sean Lorenz (HM)
Steady stay-at-homer has not looked out of place as a freshman with the Fighting Irish.

C/W Andre Petersson (HM)
One-way sniper notable for his strong performance with Sweden’s Silver medal-winning U20 World Junior team, where he scored at a point-per-game pace. Still needs to demonstrate a willingness to play on both sides of the puck.

RW Kirill Petrov (NR)
Could be a classic case of having all the tools, and no toolbox. Petrov has first-line size and skills, but hasn’t been able to put it together consistently, earning limited icetime with Kazan of the KHL, and going scoreless at the World Juniors. The upside is incredible - but will it ever be realized? Columbus will be patient.

C Ryan Potulny (HM)
Strong play at the AHL level earned Potulny a call-up to Edmonton, where he’s had 3 assists in 4 games on limited ice time. A depth forward for Columbus, but with the offensive toolkit to become more.

C Michael Swift (NR)
FA signing is taking off in his first pro season, scoring 27-9-11-20 with Lowell of the AHL. Undersized by NHL standards, but lives up to his name in the hustle department, and may find a role as a complimentary scorer or energy player.
 

Hossa

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Feb 27, 2002
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19. LW Jerome Flaake (HM)
Acquired: 5th round, 2008 (147th overall)
Although the Jackets were disappointed that Flaake was not released by his German club team to come to the CHL, they couldn’t complain about his WJC performance, where he led the German side with 3 goals and 5 points in 6 games. Unfortunately, one player is not enough to achieve success and Germany was relegated to Tier II. National Team Director Ulf Samuelsson is extensively lobbying to have Flaake come to North America and continue his development next season, as are the NHL Maple Leafs.
Style comparison: Johan Franzen
Projects as: Second-line power forward
Grade: 7.0C

G Ryan Daniels (HM)
Ottawa’s lack of depth at the goaltending position may be the only thing working in Daniels’ favour, as he has looked all-too-human this season with the Petes. Buried behind Varlamov and Irving, he may never see the HFNHL with Columbus.

C/W Andre Petersson (HM)
One-way sniper notable for his strong performance with Sweden’s Silver medal-winning U20 World Junior team, where he scored at a point-per-game pace. Still needs to demonstrate a willingness to play on both sides of the puck..

Great article Doug. You really have a very strong system, with talent and depth at almost every position. I find it remarkable how many strong drafters we have in this league nowadays. I had a couple thoughts on the three guys listed above.

First, Daniels isn't Senators property anymore. He wasn't signed, re-entered the draft last year and went unclaimed.

Regarding Flaake, watching the Germans live at the WJC, he was evidently the most talented player on the team I thought. He has nice hands, moves well and great size. That being said, he seemed to be lazy and made a few bonehead plays. But definitely talented.

As for Petersson, he definitely had a very good WJC. I saw him live a few times and was very impressed. He's plenty talented and is actually not as soft or as defensively inept as I expected, and it sounds like he's worked on that a lot. What I will say is his skating needs a lot of work, straight line speed, balance, agility, everything.
 

Brock

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Feb 27, 2002
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Doug, you've managed to build up quite the farm system in actually very little time. I remember a few seasons ago (right around when you dealt me James Neal ;)), you had concerns about your farm system being quite bare. With a combination of excellent drafting, the acquisition of quality prospects through trade, and the solid progression of the some of the prospects you had before, you've got that system going. I think one thing to remember is that quite often impact players can come out of nowhere, and with the depth you've built up, you've got the chance to develop some serious impact, borderline franchise players, even if it doesn't look like it currently.

Also, just a tidbit, I'd take Adam Henrique over Kevin Montgomery, by a significant margin :D
 

Ohio Jones

Game on...
Feb 28, 2002
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Great White North
First, Daniels isn't Senators property anymore. He wasn't signed, re-entered the draft last year and went unclaimed.

Good catch; I guess it's lucky for the sens that Elliot is turning out so well, as they have (almost literally) nobody else in the system.

Regarding Flaake, watching the Germans live at the WJC, he was evidently the most talented player on the team I thought. He has nice hands, moves well and great size. That being said, he seemed to be lazy and made a few bonehead plays. But definitely talented.

I'm seriously hoping he plays in Prince George next year, where they can work on his focus and commitment (not a lot of tolerance for slackers during those long bus rides). I envy that you got to see him play in person.

As for Petersson, he definitely had a very good WJC. I saw him live a few times and was very impressed. He's plenty talented and is actually not as soft or as defensively inept as I expected, and it sounds like he's worked on that a lot. What I will say is his skating needs a lot of work, straight line speed, balance, agility, everything.

The Swedish system historically turns out defensively responsible forwards (almost to a fault, in fact). That's why I wasn't too displeased with Andre staying over there - they'll have him focussed on the right things. If he can even be average in those areas, his offensive flair will be a real asset in a few years.

I remember a few seasons ago (right around when you dealt me James Neal ;)), you had concerns about your farm system being quite bare.

:P

My biggest concern at the time was not just depth, but how far away everyone was. Neal was looking rather unspectacular in OHL - steady, but unspectacular, and concerns about his skating and the kind of upside he'd have when he made it to the pros left me prepared to make the move.

A bad mistake - and one that (as is all-too-often the case) was predicated on a previous bad mistake - not re-signing Philippe Boucher when I had the chance. I couldn't fit him under the cap at the time, but not more than two weeks after free agency, I was able to make room by trading Modano for Kelly and Budaj, so I would have been able to afford him after all (and almost certainly for less than $5 million). A number of moves since then have been me trying to make up for that error. Only now, years later, is my defensive corps startin to take proper shape.

A similar regret is trading Wideman (who I had signed out of the O as a free agent) to Drew for Bob Boughner during my cup run. I suppose I can't regret it since Boughner helped me make it to the finals, but it sure sucks in retrospect.

I think one thing to remember is that quite often impact players can come out of nowhere, and with the depth you've built up, you've got the chance to develop some serious impact, borderline franchise players, even if it doesn't look like it currently.

Any one of a dozen guys seemingly buried in my system could turn out to be that impact player... I just hope it starts happening sooner than later. ;)

Also, just a tidbit, I'd take Adam Henrique over Kevin Montgomery, by a significant margin :D

I have Montgomery ahead of Henrique only because a) Montgomery is closer to getting icetime in the pros, and b) because while I agree Henrique is by far the safer bet, Montgomery does have a higher theoretical upside (at least as HF measures it, which is how I try to do my rankings).

I think Henrique's skillset, smarts and work ethic will make him an outstanding pro. The only question is whether he q=will be able to bring enough offence to be more than a third liner. Montgomery is more likely to be a career minor-leaguer, but if he does put everything together, it's not impossible for him to become a regular on Colorado's second PP unit.

But I agree with you: Henrique is definitely more my kind of guy; I was disappointed not to get him last summer, and I'm happy I was able to do so now. Any scouting reports you have for him over the remainder of the season would be greatly appreciated!
 
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