Prospect Info: HFAvs Prospect Ranking Polls 2023 #3

[henchman21]

It was different, but as the numbers show the scoring wasn't easier like at all (which isn't a surprise since the defense was mostly a domestic player thing and they didn't leave the league). I was looking at the ppg stat (since the number of KHL games varies by year) and Chmelevski is 49th in ppg at that age, but actually he passed the eye test as he progressed through the season and at the second part of it was quite a dynamic goalscorer, wouldn't be surprised if next year he become one of the top guys in the whole league.

I have it as raw points.

Elite Prospects - KHL Stats All-time season

All-time/historical regular season stats and leaders per season for KHL, including top goal scorers, most games played, PPG leaders and more.

www.eliteprospects.com

My point is that it just isn’t that comparable. Things got skewed in the KHL last year. Guys who have no business in NA leagues like Larionov and Yan (on the same team) found success. The points might have been harder (I’m not sold on that), but the quality of the points is pretty questionable. In the end, I really don’t think the production matters though… it is his skill set. It just isn’t there to be a high impact guy. At very best he’s a bottom 6 Lehky. I have some doubts even there. He’ll certainly get a run to prove some right or some wrong here.

 

[Caser]

I have it as raw points.

Elite Prospects - KHL Stats All-time season

All-time/historical regular season stats and leaders per season for KHL, including top goal scorers, most games played, PPG leaders and more.

www.eliteprospects.com

My point is that it just isn’t that comparable. Things got skewed in the KHL last year. Guys who have no business in NA leagues like Larionov and Yan (on the same team) found success. The points might have been harder (I’m not sold on that), but the quality of the points is pretty questionable. In the end, I really don’t think the production matters though… it is his skill set. It just isn’t there to be a high impact guy. At very best he’s a bottom 6 Lehky. I have some doubts even there. He’ll certainly get a run to prove some right or some wrong here.

Raw points in this case don't make sense, as there were much more games this season in the KHL than in the previous years, so of course these guys will have more points.

As for Larionov and Yan it is a more important factor I'd say, because comparing to other teams Torpedo plays a rather attacking game, so here I agree that Kovalenko's points have been inflated in some way, but I won't be able to estimate by how much, not to mention that if we look at those historical data Panarin's points also have been similarly inflated back in the days.

As for the skill set and playing style in general I obviously have doubts too, but if Kuzmenko is successful so far, I don't understand why Kovalenko wouldn't be - ok, skillset is Kuzmenko's strength, but as for all the other things Kuzmenko left much more question marks for me a year ago, but here we are.

 

[henchman21]

Raw points in this case don't make sense, as there were much more games this season in the KHL than in the previous years, so of course these guys will have more points.

As for Larionov and Yan it is a more important factor I'd say, because comparing to other teams Torpedo plays a rather attacking game, so here I agree that Kovalenko's points have been inflated in some way, but I won't be able to estimate by how much, not to mention that if we look at those historical data Panarin's points also have been similarly inflated back in the days.

As for the skill set and playing style in general I obviously have doubts too, but if Kuzmenko is successful so far, I don't understand why Kovalenko wouldn't be - ok, skillset is Kuzmenko's strength, but as for all the other things Kuzmenko left much more question marks for me a year ago, but here we are.

Certainly the extra games help. There was just oddity there all around. I simply don’t trust raw production numbers. Need to see a lot more, especially when weird things are happing across the league. Skill set is what I will come back to and I always have some rather unpopular takes on players.

I see Kuzmenko and Kovalenko as significantly different styles of players with different strengths. Kuzmenko has puck skills and much, much better skating. Kovalenko has tenacity and some edge. Kovalenko has a higher floor as his skills translate into a bottom 6 skill set much better. I’m not sure if that floor is NHL level and even if it is, would he stay around for a 4th line role?

In all of this, I really do hope I’m wrong in what I see in Kovalenko.

 

[Metallo]

Our most recent picks always rank high in these polls because they still have the new car smell.

 

[McMetal]

Our most recent picks always rank high in these polls because they still have the new car smell.

Yep, no time to get tarnished by stalled development. Former 1st rounders also get a long boost. Kaut was propped up by his draft position for years, in hindsight, and now he's already going back to Europe.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Our most recent picks always rank high in these polls because they still have the new car smell.

While I do agree in general, both our 1sts this year are clearly the two best prospects we have.

 

[UncleRisto]

While I do agree in general, both our 1sts this year are clearly the two best prospects we have.

Until later when they aren't.

 

[S E P H]

Foudy here. Behrens is extremely overrated.

I know you never liked Sean and you're entitled to that view, but if Grzelcyk can get an NHL job and look decent, why don't you think that Behrens cannot follow in his footsteps?

 

[AllAboutAvs]

Our most recent picks always rank high in these polls because they still have the new car smell.

That's because the most recent picks still have the benefit of the doubts. Most of the others don't after a couple of years of so-so development.

 

[henchman21]

Yep, no time to get tarnished by stalled development. Former 1st rounders also get a long boost. Kaut was propped up by his draft position for years, in hindsight, and now he's already going back to Europe.

Yeah the former 1st round thing is legit. Olausson will get a lot of benefit of doubt considering his +1 and +2 years have been borderline bad while not showing growth in the areas he's needed to grow. He's probably going to end up top 5, but 6th at worst....

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I know you never liked Sean and you're entitled to that view, but if Grzelcyk can get an NHL job and look decent, why don't you think that Behrens cannot follow in his footsteps?

I simply don't think he's anywhere near skilled enough to make it at the NHL level. Especially given his size. He's like a worse version of Girard to me.

 

[henchman21]

I simply don't think he's anywhere near skilled enough to make it at the NHL level. Especially given his size. He's like a worse version of Girard to me.

So Matt Grzelcyk.

 

[McMetal]

Yeah the former 1st round thing is legit. Olausson will get a lot of benefit of doubt considering his +1 and +2 years have been borderline bad while not showing growth in the areas he's needed to grow. He's probably going to end up top 5, but 6th at worst....

To be fair, he probably still has more raw potential than, say, a Beaucage or Ishimnikov level of prospect. He should probably be in the top 10 when you consider who else is in the pool...

 

[henchman21]

To be fair, he probably still has more raw potential than, say, a Beaucage or Ishimnikov level of prospect. He should probably be in the top 10 when you consider who else is in the pool...

Yeah he has raw talent... but many players do too. In his draft year the big question was is he raw or is he lazy/stupid? With the lockdowns it was harder to get a real picture of that. His size skill combo was nice though, so that was the evaluation of the risk. 2 years removed from the draft, the picture looks a lot closer to lazy and stupid being the answer. I place OO in the same sort of group with Ambro and Buyalsky. Guys who have talent, but not enough of it to carry them to the NHL by itself. OO probably gets more of a shot based on pedigree, but I think Buyalsky might have the best shot of actually sticking (still low).

I still recall the conversations on Beaucage... I still stand by the Avs should have never signed him... or drafted him. You can throw all the stats comparables you want out there, but when skating is THAT bad... there is just nearly zero chance at success.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

Yeah I never got the Beaucage pick. He was never an Avs' type of player. Somebody must have banged the table pretty hard for him to be picked.

 

[The Abusement Park]

Yeah I never got the Beaucage pick. He was never an Avs' type of player. Somebody must have banged the table pretty hard for him to be picked.

I mean with his shot I can kind of understand taking a flyer on him. Could be a real weapon if he could develop, but yeah the skating is just so so bad.

 

[henchman21]

Yeah I never got the Beaucage pick. He was never an Avs' type of player. Somebody must have banged the table pretty hard for him to be picked.

He was a stats pick pure and simple. You look at his shots and his production in the Q and project that out, his comparables were incredibly favorable. Where if you actually watched him consistently, you'd see he was not a legit prospect. That's a shot I'll never understand. Some decisions like Beaucage and Ishimnikov are just so incredibly baffling. Guys like Ranta or Buyalsky I totally get taking a random shot on (though 3rd round might be rich).

 

[AllAboutAvs]

He was a stats pick pure and simple. You look at his shots and his production in the Q and project that out, his comparables were incredibly favorable. Where if you actually watched him consistently, you'd see he was not a legit prospect. That's a shot I'll never understand. Some decisions like Beaucage and Ishimnikov are just so incredibly baffling. Guys like Ranta or Buyalsky I totally get taking a random shot on (though 3rd round might be rich).

You can add Anderson as well to that list. Just dumb picks.

 

[Chiarelli]

Going with Foudy here. I just like his style of game and it’s easy to project.

 

[henchman21]

Going with Foudy here. I just like his style of game and it’s easy to project.

Foudy is a guy I totally get the argument for. Style of play works, his trajectory is up, he's shown well in the AHL... needs to stay healthy and either claim a NHL spot next year or have the offense really take another jump in the AHL. But the trend right now is very solid. Wouldn't shock me at all for him to be a fixture in the bottom 6 by the middle of next season. I think if we are talking highest floor/most likely to stick in the NHL, Foudy is that pick for sure.

 

[S E P H]

He was a stats pick pure and simple. You look at his shots and his production in the Q and project that out, his comparables were incredibly favorable. Where if you actually watched him consistently, you'd see he was not a legit prospect. That's a shot I'll never understand. Some decisions like Beaucage and Ishimnikov are just so incredibly baffling. Guys like Ranta or Buyalsky I totally get taking a random shot on (though 3rd round might be rich).

It shows to me that Avs have a regional scout problem since after each team's top 150, they reference a ton on the effort of their regional scouts. Not sure I agree with the "stats" decision, which is more along the lines of the junior import draft routes, I give more credit to NHL scouts than that. However, I think our scouts just saw his shot as "too good" to turn down. Avs probably think they can fix skating ability because Beaucage isn't the first awful skater to be drafted by us and won't be the last.

 

[henchman21]

It shows to me that Avs have a regional scout problem since after each team's top 150, they reference a ton on the effort of their regional scouts. Not sure I agree with the "stats" decision, which is more along the lines of the junior import draft routes, I give more credit to NHL scouts than that. However, I think our scouts just saw his shot as "too good" to turn down. Avs probably think they can fix skating ability because Beaucage isn't the first awful skater to be drafted by us and won't be the last.

Avs' stats group has a heavy influence in their drafting. There is always a guy or two who is a stats pick in each draft.

I do agree the Avs believe they can fix skating... I think they are also a group that likes technically sound skating and thinks adding strength will improve skating.

 

[S E P H]

Avs' stats group has a heavy influence in their drafting. There is always a guy or two who is a stats pick in each draft.

I do agree the Avs believe they can fix skating... I think they are also a group that likes technically sound skating and thinks adding strength will improve skating.

Are you talking about stats or the analytic team?

I think it depends on the round the player is in, they probably prefer better skaters in the 1st round and don't really care (O'Reilly, Beaucage, Anderson, Ishimnikov, etc.) afterwards. If that is the case, it sort of backs up your point of stats considering Avs see how likely 2nd rounders will become NHL players and why they trade those picks so often.

 

[henchman21]

Are you talking about stats or the analytic team?

I think it depends on the round the player is in, they probably prefer better skaters in the 1st round and don't really care (O'Reilly, Beaucage, Anderson, Ishimnikov, etc.) afterwards. If that is the case, it sort of backs up your point of stats considering Avs see how likely 2nd rounders will become NHL players and why they trade those picks so often.

Stats and analytic team are one and the same.