Prospect Info: HFAvs Prospect Ranking Polls 2023 #3

[McMetal]

Mikhail Gulyayev runs away with #2 in his prospect poll debut!

Added Jeremy Hanzel to the polls. Don't forget to vote for who to add next in the comments!

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[McMetal]

Behrens here by a mile, this is the clear end of a tier for me. He had a good season at DU, I don't see his drop to third as a real reflection of him falling, just the addition of two new first rounders ahead of him pushed him down. He's still a solid prospect and has a clear NHL upside, I'm hoping the Avs make a big push to sign him at the end of the season and don't let him go back for a senior year.

Add Ondrej Pavel again, I wouldn't call him a lock but his age and potential NHL readiness are making me lean in that direction.

 

[Andrew Wiggin]

I like what i have seen from Foudy among our prospect pool. I see more potential from some of the higher drafted guys but for me Foudy is the best bet. Would have considered him for 1 if he was there, voted for him at 2 and will probably stay with him until he goes off the board.

Add Matt Stienburg

 

[Perratrooper]

After thinking about it a bit more I’m going with Foudy here.

Add Pavel

 

[tigervixxxen]

It’s between Foudy and Kovalenko for me. It’s tough to know where to slot Kovy, I barely consider him a prospect as it is but he’s the one that has the best chance of getting a true NHL shot and he’s ready for it. Foudy had a good year and is the best hope of breaking out of the AHL but a lot still has to go right for him.

Behrens isn’t in consideration for me. I don’t see him as an A prospect where upside is enough alone to vote him like Ritchie and Guly. So beyond that tier those who are signed and have played pro are in much greater consideration as they’ve made it over that hurdle at least. I don’t doubt Behrens would get signed (every other unsigned prospect from this point forward though I have massive concerns about that) but what he looks like playing pro and also his usage are major questions and therefore I can’t elevate Behrens above prospects in a similar tier who have at least played pro and played in the NHL (meaning Foudy and Olausson). I know the benefit of the doubt is tempting but there’s way too much uncertainty.

add Taylor Makar, he has just as much of a shot as anyone else

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Foudy here. Behrens is extremely overrated.

 

[henchman21]

Foudy here. Behrens is extremely overrated.

I’d argue Behrens is super underrated around here.

 

[Perratrooper]

I’d argue Behrens is super underrated around here.

Interesting, do you peg him as a sure fire NHL player in a #4-5 capacity?

 

[henchman21]

Interesting, do you peg him as a sure fire NHL player in a #4-5 capacity?

Sure fire… no… very solid potential to be a middle pairing puck mover with decent offense. Kinda like G. Nobody left (or really anybody in the pool) is sure fire.

 

[Gumballhead]

I’d argue Behrens is super underrated around here.

It seems like he's lost some love here because he's not new and shiny. I haven't watched him play much, but my guess is that he hasn't gotten worse or stalled in his growth. He might end up a victim of us having a lot of kind of similar defensemen in the pipe, but that shouldn't reflect on his NHL potential, just his Avalanche potential.

 

[tigervixxxen]

It seems like he's lost some love here because he's not new and shiny. I haven't watched him play much, but my guess is that he hasn't gotten worse or stalled in his growth. He might end up a victim of us having a lot of kind of similar defensemen in the pipe, but that shouldn't reflect on his NHL potential, just his Avalanche potential.

Other than the fact that he had a less productive sophomore season? He’s not considered a top 100 prospect in the league and he’s likely not going to get fast tracked whenever he signs.

 

[Gumballhead]

Other than the fact that he had a less productive sophomore season? He’s not considered a top 100 prospect in the league and he’s likely not going to get fast tracked whenever he signs.

As I said, I was guessing. Thanks for that information. This year is important then - if he has a great year he's probably shiny again.

 

[henchman21]

As I said, I was guessing. Thanks for that information. This year is important then - if he has a great year he's probably shiny again.

It is kinda skewed. His production was down (pacing about 3 different), but only slightly. This was on a slightly worse team and one that scored 25 less goals. Plus he was dealing with an injury.

This completely misses his actual play (stat watching skews a lot), which improved. He was more aggressive and attacking. His defense improved dramatically. His physicality took a step. He’s not gonna be a high end point producer. Maybe a 30-35 point guy who provides puck movement and two way play.

I personally don’t think Behrens took a large step forward, but his game matured and he’s really close to NHL ready with his play away from the puck. The offense will be there, but won’t be his calling card. He’s a thicker G.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

I’m not as high on Behrens as some. Kovalenko, then Foudy for me.

 

[henchman21]

I don’t get the Kovalenko love. He’s been disappointing for years, meh skill set, has a good year in a weakened league, and jumps to the top. But that’s really the reason we all waste time here. To debate pointless nuance.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

For me it's Behrens, Foudy, Kovy, Hanzel then.....

Olausson has to show a lot more this season to move him up.

 

[henchman21]

On the production note, OO needs a lot more of it. He has some talent, but is kinda dumb and lazy. That has to end this year or there will be zero chance. He’s gotta show very well at camp.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Olausson scored zero points on the PP, if he was used on it and had 15-20 points more because of it perceptions would be quite different.

If the Avs system is a race to see who can become a forechecker Kovy is at the top of that list. The aggression he plays with can’t be taught and he’s the right age.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

A player also needs to earn that spot on the PP.

 

[henchman21]

Olausson scored zero points on the PP, if he was used on it and had 15-20 points more because of it perceptions would be quite different.

If the Avs system is a race to see who can become a forechecker Kovy is at the top of that list. The aggression he plays with can’t be taught and he’s the right age.

On OO:

(He had 4 goals on the PP 0 assists)

On Kovy… his style of play is akin to what the Avs want. His skating and ability to get blown up (with the puck) are not.

 

[Caser]

I don’t get the Kovalenko love. He’s been disappointing for years, meh skill set, has a good year in a weakened league, and jumps to the top. But that’s really the reason we all waste time here. To debate pointless nuance.

I don't think I can agree about the 'disappointing for years' part. I mean, 11 points in 41 games in 2020/21 isn't disappointment considering that the coach hated him (likely for some personal reasons) and stapled him on the 4th line. In 2021/22 he was over 0.5 ppg before that bad concussion, which would be like 4th on the team production wise, so I also don't think that is disappointing. As for the weakened league stuff, scoring went down as the result of this weakening, which makes his numbers even more impressive.

 

[henchman21]

I don't think I can agree about the 'disappointing for years' part. I mean, 11 points in 41 games in 2020/21 isn't disappointment considering that the coach hated him (likely for some personal reasons) and stapled him on the 4th line. In 2021/22 he was over 0.5 ppg before that bad concussion, which would be like 4th on the team production wise, so I also don't think that is disappointing. As for the weakened league stuff, scoring went down as the result of this weakening, which makes his numbers even more impressive.

.5 ppg isn’t something that I’d latch onto at 22. Less than that prior. It just isn’t high end production. His play just wasn’t good IMO. I was a fan of the pick and he hasn’t taken steps forward until last year. I hope it continues, but as for it being impressive… I can’t get on board with that as a 23 year old player. That’s typically a peak and he’s basically at the same rate as NHL burnout players. The KHL looked significantly weaker than the AHL to my eyes last year, but certainly weaker than a few years prior. Either way though, points are only part of it. At his size, skating, propensity to skate with the puck with his head down, and general lack of high end skill… I don’t see a high success rate chance.

I really hope he proves me wrong as the Avs could use another Lehky style player. I just don’t see a long term NHLer here. A guy who will certainly get games based on his contract and will get a run. Will he stick for 200+ games? I have my doubts.

 

[Caser]

.5 ppg isn’t something that I’d latch onto at 22. Less than that prior. It just isn’t high end production. His play just wasn’t good IMO. I was a fan of the pick and he hasn’t taken steps forward until last year. I hope it continues, but as for it being impressive… I can’t get on board with that as a 23 year old player. That’s typically a peak and he’s basically at the same rate as NHL burnout players. The KHL looked significantly weaker than the AHL to my eyes last year, but certainly weaker than a few years prior. Either way though, points are only part of it. At his size, skating, propensity to skate with the puck with his head down, and general lack of high end skill… I don’t see a high success rate chance.

I really hope he proves me wrong as the Avs could use another Lehky style player. I just don’t see a long term NHLer here. A guy who will certainly get games based on his contract and will get a run. Will he stick for 200+ games? I have my doubts.

Depends on how to define high-end production, I mean like one of the top KHL prospects Arseni Gritsyuk has similarly to Kovalenko also been 5th in ppg production on his team at the age of 22 this season - I'd say it is a solid achievement for that age. I don't know about the age of 23 as a peak, especially for rather undersized prospects, usually it starts more like at 24 or 25 if we look at examples of guys like Kaprizov or Kuzmenko. Actually looks like only Radulov, Tarasenko, Kaprizov, Panarin and Kovar have scored more at that age or younger and while he still could be a new Kovar it is an intriguing company to be with.

 

[henchman21]

Depends on how to define high-end production, I mean like one of the top KHL prospects Arseni Gritsyuk has similarly to Kovalenko also been 5th in ppg production on his team at the age of 22 this season - I'd say it is a solid achievement for that age. I don't know about the age of 23 as a peak, especially for rather undersized prospects, usually it starts more like at 24 or 25 if we look at examples of guys like Kaprizov or Kuzmenko. Actually looks like only Radulov, Tarasenko, Kaprizov, Panarin and Kovar have scored more at that age or younger and while he still could be a new Kovar it is an intriguing company to be with.

I don’t think the league last year is all that comparable to before. IE Chmelevski had a top 10 season in that regard and did it last year. 3 of the top 10 happened last season. The KHL was simply different last year.

 

[Caser]

I don’t think the league last year is all that comparable to before. IE Chmelevski had a top 10 season in that regard and did it last year. 3 of the top 10 happened last season. The KHL was simply different last year.

It was different, but as the numbers show the scoring wasn't easier like at all (which isn't a surprise since the defense was mostly a domestic player thing and they didn't leave the league). I was looking at the ppg stat (since the number of KHL games varies by year) and Chmelevski is 49th in ppg at that age, but actually he passed the eye test as he progressed through the season and at the second part of it was quite a dynamic goalscorer, wouldn't be surprised if next year he becomes one of the top guys in the whole league.