cw7 said:
Not saying you're wrong, Vlad. You're one of the minority that takes both sides into account. Just trying to widen the perspective.
And you're absolutely right too.
There are literally hundreds of ways this can play out.
I just think the union is very confident, and rightly so. They have a past track record of solidarity and of victories. The momentum has been on their side in the recent past so I suspect several of their members are just not afraid of the owners.
This is the twofold problem the owners are facing now.
Take for example the Bettman speech today. I'm reading that and what I get is "we won't bend, we want this, we want that!".
Ok, so far that looks powerful enough. There's obviously the typical bull you read/hear in any negociation statement but it's still strong enough. BUT, here's my problem. They looked just as resolute many, many, many years ago.
I remember as clear as day. Salaries were much lower, the union was much weaker. We can guess the owners were probably richer (if they are telling the truth) and I swear to God, they were looking just as resolute back then. I remember how they looked strong, how they said they wouldn't flinch.
And then I remember afterwards, Marcel Aubut looking like he had just put down his dog. He was pale and you could immediately see that it was the end of Quebec City in the NHL. And he suggested that the whole thing was a joke, that the owners had been bickering and were absolutely not concerned for each others.
It takes time to "look" tough in a negociation. You gotta put effort in that to create an impression, a strong stance. It takes probably even more time if you have to erase your past defeats like the owners will have to now.
This is my problem. If this was a first CBA meeting, I think *some* (not all) players would be pausing at this point of the process. Some would be wondering if it is sane to lock horn with the bosses. Right now, if Goodenow is smart, he is playing old tapes of ownership statements back in the days, when they looked just as resolute.
Bettman's speech was only for the fans. Every owner right now HAS to know that there is not a chance, not a single tiny chance that the players will flinch before at least January. Because they know in the past owners have worked it out. The owners are ****ed because in order to get the credibility needed and prove they are serious, they must go at least to January and most probably scrap the whole season.
And that doesn't garantee them a victory. That just garantees them the minimum respect any man should have when he negociate. They left their balls in the drawer for a decade. They're wearing pink skirts for the rest of year 2004. My point is, the negociations haven't even started for real.
Anytime a player comes to Goodenow or a representative with doubts or fear, the owners will tell them to not even worry. It's not even serious until January.
So all I know is, if this conflict is resolved before January, it's because the players won and got exactly what they wanted. That's as far as I can go. Past that, anything can happen but since historically the players have been winning, my money is on them.
I do not expect a glowing victory. I expect a middle ground deal, but closer to satisfying the players.