Herc-Rock's Solution for the 2005 draft lottery

Discussion in 'The Business of Hockey' started by The Mighty Duck Man, May 31, 2005.

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  1. The Mighty Duck Man

    The Mighty Duck Man R-E-L-A-X

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    All I've seen so far for solutions that see you get more balls for each year you missed the playoffs. IMO, the flaws in that are what about those teams that just barely miss the playoffs, yet have equal shots as teams that are on the bottom most of the time. Therefore, I've decided that a way to do this would be to use a weighted system, but based on point totals over the last three years rather than if they made the playoffs or not. The bottom five would get six balls, the next five would get five balls, the next five would get four balls, the next five would get three balls, the next five would get two balls, and the last four would get one ball. Here's the standings that would determine the order:

    Columbus-188 points
    Pittsburgh-192 points
    Florida-205 points
    Atlanta-206 points
    New York Rangers-227 points

    Carolina-228 points
    Chicago-234 points
    Nashville-234 points
    Washington-236 points
    Buffalo-239 points

    Anaheim-240 points
    Phoenix-241 points
    Calgary-248 points
    Minnesota-251 points
    Los Angeles-254 points

    Montreal-257 points
    Tampa Bay-268 points
    New York Islander-270 points
    Edmonton-273 points
    San Jose-276 points

    St.Louis-288 points
    Boston-292 points
    Dallas-298 points
    Vancouver-299 points
    Toronto-301 points

    New Jersey-303 points
    Colorado-304 points
    Philadelphia-305 points
    Ottawa-309 points
    Detroit-335 points





    On top of that, I used my system and drafted out a potential order. Here it is:

    1.Columbus Blue Jackets
    2.Nashville Predators
    3.Florida Panthers
    4.Phoenix Coyotes
    5.Anaheim Mighty Ducks
    6.Dallas Stars
    7.Carolina Hurricanes
    8.New York Rangers
    9.Los Angeles Kings
    10.Calgary Flames
    11.Atlanta Thrashers
    12.Chicago Blackhawks
    13.Buffalo Sabres
    14.Minnesota Wild
    15.Washington Capitals
    16.Vancouver Canucks
    17.Pittsburgh Penguins
    18.New York Islanders
    19.Tampa Bay Lightning
    20.Philadelphia Flyers
    21.Toronto Maple Leafs
    22.Montreal Canadiens
    23.Ottawa Senators
    24.Edmonton Oilers
    25.San Jose Sharks
    26.Detroit Red Wings
    27.Boston Bruins
    28.St.Louis Blues
    29.Colorado Avalanche
    30.New Jersey Devils
     
  2. cassius

    cassius Registered User

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    The last ranked team gets 17th pick?

    :shakehead :dunno:
     
  3. The Mighty Duck Man

    The Mighty Duck Man R-E-L-A-X

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    That's just what I did, picking them on my own. It's obviously surprising, but that's what could happen if Pittsburgh's ball wasn't pick.

    Actually, the last ranked team(C-Bus) got first overall. P-Burgh was second last.
     
  4. DARKSIDE

    DARKSIDE Registered User

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    I have no problem picking at 30 if that means we pick at 31. Really, not an entirely bad deal for the teams that pick late in the first and early in the second. It's like having to late first rounders, if this is the NHL plan.
     
  5. Dave is a killer

    Dave is a killer Dave's a Mess

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    *drools over the thought of adding Jack Johnson to the Predators blueline*
     
  6. nomorekids

    nomorekids The original, baby

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    I would be shocked if we took Johnson, with so many high profile centers on the board. I'd trade the pick to someone we know wanted Johnson and move down...and snag Pouliot, Brule or Kopitar
     
  7. tm

    tm Registered User

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    This is not entirely a new idea. What's different about this idea from some I've seen is the concept of "the bottom five would get six balls, the next five would get five balls, the next five would get four balls, the next five ...". From the list above, then, what you state as a flaw with the "missed the playoffs" idea:
    can also be seen as a flaw here, too. i.e. Why should the Rangers get 6 balls and Carolina only 5 when just 1 point separated the two? Why should Buffalo get 5 and Anaheim just 4, or Toronto 2 Devils 1, again only 1 point difference?
    I'm not saying I don't like this idea - I think it's a start. In fact, I do like it better than the "missed the playoffs" one.
    How about modifying your idea to something like this:
    - Each team on the list should get more "balls" (or lottery tickets, if you will) assigned to them than the next team in the list, because they got less points. And the # tickets more should somehow reflect how much "worse" the team was.
    - One way to do this: give each team 350 minus #Pts lottery tickets! e.g. Columbus gets 350-188=162 tickets, next Pit gets 350-192=158 tickets, ..., lastly Det gets 350-335=15 tickets. I chose 350 cuz it's a bit bigger than the highest points - feel free to change.
    - Doing this means a total of 2,699 "balls" or possible outcomes of the lottery.
    Here's the list again. Last column would be #tickets assigned to the team using 350-Pts formula:
    Team Pts 350-Pts=#tickets
    CLB 188 162
    PIT 192 158
    FLO 205 145
    ATL 206 144
    NYR 227 123
    CAR 228 122
    CHI 234 116
    NAS 234 116
    WAS 236 114
    BUF 239 111
    ANA 240 110
    PHO 241 109
    CAL 248 102
    MIN 251 99
    LAK 254 96
    MON 257 93
    TBL 268 82
    NYI 270 80
    EDM 273 77
    SJS 276 74
    STL 288 62
    BOS 292 58
    DAL 298 52
    VAN 299 51
    TOR 301 49
    NJD 303 47
    COL 304 46
    PHI 305 45
    OTT 309 41
    DET 335 15
    Tot 7801 2699
     
  8. The Mighty Duck Man

    The Mighty Duck Man R-E-L-A-X

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    Heck, that's an even better idea. I used mine because I could figure out who'd get Crosby under my formula, but that's a much better idea. Something I'd love to see the NHL use.
     
  9. GKJ

    GKJ Global Moderator

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    Better than 30th which is also a possability.


    Kings get 9th pick and Flyers get 20th, I'll take it.
     
  10. The Old Master

    The Old Master Registered User

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    as nice as it would be for det or any other top team to draft crosby, do the rest of you realy want to take that chance? how would you guys in det. feel if ott., phi., col., or njd. drafted cosby does your greed to darft crosby override the major setback you would face if one of your rivals gets crosby?
     
  11. CGG

    CGG Registered User

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    I think that risk is worth it, it's a far better option than having someone declare that only the worst five crap teams of the past few years have a shot at getting Crosby. Add Crosby to Atlanta, for instance, and I'd be a lot more worried about Atlanta in 2 years than New Jersey.

    You can't insert a cutoff point anywhere without being completely unfair. For instance, if only 5 teams have a shot, the 6th worst will have a legitimate complaint. If only 25 teams have a shot, the 26th worst will have a legitimate complaint.
     
  12. Canucks5551

    Canucks5551 Registered User

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    I like this idea
     
  13. Big McLargehuge

    Big McLargehuge 13

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    I would be so ****ing pissed off if the Penguins pick anywhere outside the top 10.
     
  14. Broadway Brett

    Broadway Brett Registered User

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    It's about damn time the Rangers get some balls.
     
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