Player Discussion: Hattrik Laine

[Hunter368]

Those guys were signed longterm after their elc’s.
Won’t be the case with Laine.

Completely different situstion, Laine’s CV is and will be superior to those 3 at the time of signing, why he’ll get far more money

Scheifele in time will then overtake Laines salary easily

RFA vs UFA years.....as I stated effect the value in this case will increase it.

 

[BB88]

RFA vs UFA years.....as I stated effect the value in this case will increase it.

Elc vs rfa
2016 vs 2021
1 60 point season vs 3-4

If we are looking at Laine vs Scheifele for example

 

[Hunter368]

And despite your narrative was actually consistently the best player on that line.

Well then we should hear within the next year a huge extension to Laine making him the highest paid player on the team b/c obviously then the real hockey pro’s will see that as will the players......right?

If no then that must mean:

1) Laine refuses to sign a fair deal to reflect his value.

2) Laine just refuses to sign any deal.

3) Jets don’t see him as the best player on the team as you state.

 

[Hunter368]

Elc vs rfa
2016 vs 2021
1 60 point season vs 3-4

If we are looking at Laine vs Scheifele for example

Agree, Jets signed Mark to a long term deal that was a fair deal at the time and then he took huge steps forward. Time will tell with Laine.

 

[surixon]

What was Laine reason/excuse then this year, he played a huge chunk of the year with Mark

Mikko without Mackinnon 17-now

46.4 CF% and 43.73 XGF%

Laine without Scheifele same period:

48.07 cf% and 44.84 XGF%

Seems like a similar inability to drive anything without help to me.

Also what about this year, him and Rantenan had similar stat lines:

19 goals and 22 assists in 42 games which was an 80 point pace

Vs

28 goals 35 assists in 68 games with was a 76 point pace

When you factor in the difference in the quality of center their production is pretty negligible.

The Jets as a team were hot garbage from an underlying metric perspective this year with usual stat darlings like Lowry, Scheifele etc having XGF metrics in the toilet so I have a hard time singling out Laine alone for the crap that happened this past year. It's hard to judge anyone's underlying numbers based on the mess we had on the ice.

 

[MardyBum]

What was Laine reason/excuse then this year, he played a huge chunk of the year with Mark

Why does he need one?

Rantanen had 41 points in 42 games playing with Mack something like 90% of his ES time, Laine had 63 in 68 playing with Scheif around 80% of the time.

And Mackinnon is a better player.

 

[Hunter368]

Mikko without Mackinnon 17-now

46.4 CF% and 43.73 XGF%

Laine without Scheifele same period:

48.07 cf% and 44.84 XGF%

Seems like a similar inability to drive anything without help to me.

Also what about this year, him and Rantenan had similar stat lines:

19 goals and 22 assists in 42 games which was an 80 point pace

Vs

28 goals 35 assists in 68 games with was a 76 point pace

When you factor in the difference in the quality of center their production is pretty negligible.

The Jets as a team were hot garbage from an underlying metric perspective this year with usual stat darlings like Lowry, Scheifele etc having XGF metrics in the toilet so I have a hard time singling out Laine alone for the crap that happened this past year. It's hard to judge anyone's underlying numbers based on the mess we had on the ice.

So then we should see a huge extension to Laine right? Unless,

1) Laine refuses to sign any deal.

2) Laine refuses any deal close to fair value, assuming real hockey believe he’s Mikko equal.

3) Jets don’t see him as Mikko equal and offer less.

Right?

 

[Hunter368]

Why does he need one?

Rantanen had 41 points in 42 games playing with Mack something like 90% of his ES time, Laine had 63 in 68 playing with Scheif around 80% of the time.

And Mackinnon is a better player.

See above

 

[surixon]

So then we should see a huge extension to Laine right? Unless,

1) Laine refuses to sign any deal.

2) Laine refuses any deal close to fair value, assuming real hockey believe he’s Mikko equal.

3) Jets don’t see him as Mikko equal and offer less.

Right?

As I have discussed I will just wait and see what he does next year with what I hope is a functional team.

My main point is that Colorado is paying a non play driving winger upper end salary and having a decent amount of team success due to it and there doesn't seem to be much of an issue in the room.

I think Rantanen is the best comparable on the market to Laine in terms what they bring to the table and what their weaknesses are.

But its up to Laine to grab the top line slot and continue to produce like Rantenan at near or above a ppg level to warrant an 8.5 to 9.5 million deal.

 

[Hunter368]

As I have discussed I will just wait and see what he does next year with what I hope is a functional team.

My main point is that Colorado is paying a non play driving winger upper end salary and having a decent amount of team success due to it and there doesn't seem to be much of an issue in the room.

I think Rantanen is the best comparable on the market to Laine in terms what they bring to the table and what their weaknesses are.

But its up to Laine to grab the top line slot and continue to produce like Rantenan at near or above a ppg level to warrant an 8.5 to 9.5 million deal.

I agree with all that, I’ve stated 8.25 - 8.5 so you’re slightly higher then me but not dramatically. But the original question was 10 million, which is certainly a big stretch at least at this point, by end of next year if Laine takes big steps over the next year maybe he brings himself into the group....which wouldn’t be a big issue but my post said now he not worth that now.

 

[surixon]

I agree with all that, I’ve stated 8.25 - 8.5 so you’re slightly higher then me but not dramatically. But the original question was 10 million, which is certainly a big stretch at least at this point, by end of next year if Laine takes big steps over the next year maybe he brings himself into the group....which wouldn’t be a big issue but my post said now he not worth that now.

Oh he'd need to score 50 plus goals and 95 points to put himself in that range.

I see him more as 40 to 45 goal 80 to 85 point player over the next 4 to 6 years which is still darn good production but not worth much more then 9 million.

 

[PhilJets]

Schiefele right now is worth 8.5M to 9M to most team.

He probably go close to 10M if he plays for New York or Toronto.

He makes a 6M, it got nothing to do with Laine.
If Laine makes 3M more its not Laine's fault.

Ehlers salary should be about Connor's range.
Connor is about right.

I put the graph below in the thread by the numbers: Jets

I will post it here also

 

[Hunter368]

Oh he'd need to score 50 plus goals and 95 points to put himself in that range.

I see him more as 40 to 45 goal 80 to 85 point player over the next 4 to 6 years which is still darn good production but not worth much more then 9 million.

Agreed. I should of also stated in my last post he isn’t worth that last offseason when he signed his two year deal (I can’t imagine anyone would argue that) and he’s still not worth that this year. Maybe after next year with significant progress.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

Get him to waive the NTC.

Send him back to Minnesota where he belongs.

Why would he want to do that? He's the top dog on the Jets and has the full support of his coach, GM, and teammates. Laine doesn't have that cache and never will.

 

[ps241]

@surixon and @Hunter368 very nice back and forth. That is a really functional debate with good information exchange. Good natured sparing that adds to the solutions and options around the dilemma.

 

[wabagee]

He’s the most responsible winger we have, and way more than Scheifele. He’s are only superstar “only player that anyone talks about outside the Jets board and he is just going to get better!

 

[Teemusalami204]

Laine isn't Mikko........not even close.

Never said that. Pretty big assumption you made there. I was just sharing an example of a better player making less in another locker room.

 

[Teemusalami204]

As I have discussed I will just wait and see what he does next year with what I hope is a functional team.

My main point is that Colorado is paying a non play driving winger upper end salary and having a decent amount of team success due to it and there doesn't seem to be much of an issue in the room.

I think Rantanen is the best comparable on the market to Laine in terms what they bring to the table and what their weaknesses are.

But its up to Laine to grab the top line slot and continue to produce like Rantenan at near or above a ppg level to warrant an 8.5 to 9.5 million deal.

Colorado doesn’t have an aging captain making 8.5 throwing a wrench into team comparables though. It changes a lot

 

[PhilJets]

Oh he'd need to score 50 plus goals and 95 points to put himself in that range.

I see him more as 40 to 45 goal 80 to 85 point player over the next 4 to 6 years which is still darn good production but not worth much more then 9 million.

Will 9.5M be an OK salary for 40 goals, 85 point player 4-5 years from now?

Laine signing will be base on these factors.

What he had accomplished compared with his age group.
His accomplishments as his floor.
What he is projected to be. And its very high based on Chevy.
Then what they want to do with him moving forward. Will he be a mainstay at the top right wing or used when Wheeler only have to be move to play C?

 

[Whileee]

It didn't destroy Colorado's locker room where McKinnon is significantly better then Rantenan and makes 3 million less.

I don't think it has anywhere near the amount of impact most people think it does. I'm sure the players are all fully aware on the mechanics of what drives contract value.

Rantanen was coming off 84 and 87 point seasons. Much easier to see the value compared to Laine's production.

 

[surixon]

Rantanen was coming off 84 and 87 point seasons. Much easier to see the value compared to Laine's production.

Well Laine has another year to show that he is worth that.

 

[PhilJets]

Rantanen has 250 career points
Drafted 2015
Born 1996

Laine has 247 career points
Drafted 2016
Born 1998

I'm not gonna add career usage. Surixon already detailed that part.

Using the discussed values above, Laine should command at lowest Rantanen's salary already.

That is fair i believe.
Which i think Laine have a good chance of accepting, with meeting that he is top rw going forward. Not filler.

 

[surixon]

Will 9.5M be an OK salary for 40 goals, 85 point player 4-5 years from now?

Laine signing will be base on these factors.

What he had accomplished compared with his age group.
His accomplishments as his floor.
What he is projected to be. And its very high based on Chevy.
Then what they want to do with him moving forward. Will he be a mainstay at the top right wing or used when Wheeler only have to be move to play C?

There are only two RW in the league who have a cap hit over 10 million and only and additional 3 who have a cap hit in the $9 million range for RW. When you use cap hit % only 7 right wingers would have a percentage of the cap that would equate to a contract over $9 million on a $81.5 million cap.

Asking for $10 million is out of the question for Laine given his accomplishments relative to his market comparables. A $9 million contract pays him a top 10 Right winger in the league. 10 million would pay him as a top 3 RW in the league and he is pretty far from that level. We also don't have a GM that will give in to outrageous demands like Dubas in Toronto.

Simply put wingers generally don't get paid as much as centers both in terms of AAV and in terms of caphit %.

 

[PhilJets]

There are only two RW in the league who have a cap hit over 10 million and only and additional 3 who have a cap hit in the $9 million range for RW. When you use cap hit % only 7 right wingers would have a percentage of the cap that would equate to a contract over $9 million on a $81.5 million cap.

Asking for $10 million is out of the question for Laine given his accomplishments relative to his market comparables. A $9 million contract pays him a top 10 Right winger in the league. 10 million would pay him as a top 3 RW in the league and he is pretty far from that level. We also don't have a GM that will give in to outrageous demands like Dubas in Toronto.

Simply put wingers generally don't get paid as much as centers both in terms of AAV and in terms of caphit %.

Yup 10M is not happening.
Reason why i keep insisting.
Laine camp knows this. Its off the discussion as final proposal by Laines camp.
It can be a starter?
Laine camp at 10M, Chevy at 8M and they squeeze from there.

The 9.5M is at high end already.

9M is fair, it just becomes complex as 3 other wingers are paid 6M + But that is not the reason to lose your best winger, youngest moving forward.

8.5M is an awesome deal. The cap will not stay flat also , if you think a 7 -8 year long term for Laine.

The cap will increase on the back half of long term Laine deal.

And like i said in my other post it , will be based on:

What he had accomplished compared with his age group.
His accomplishments as his floor.
What he is projected to be. And its very high based on Chevy.
Then what they want to do with him moving forward. Will he be a mainstay at the top right wing or used when Wheeler only have to be move to play C?


Don't forget goals scored also have a lot of weight in contracts. And i mentioned he was top 10 in the entire league during his 18 to 21 years of age. And at the same age group he was also top 10 historically. Only stamkos was not 80s in that group.
​

 

[HPsauce]

Hey just reading up in here... a lot of discussion over Laine and what he’s worth.

What are our thoughts on Laine being moved this offseason? Usually where there’s smoke there’s fire and he’s ranked pretty high on the TSN trade bait board.

I can’t see why Chevy would pull off a trade involving Laine, unless he’s asked for a trade and stated he won’t sign long term here. I’m in Laine’s corner here, he’s playing behind an aging dinosaur in Blake Wheeler who really in all reality is not as talented as Laine.

With his skill level he should be playing more minutes, with Scheifele, and ultimately we would see more wins as a result. He’s being held back in my opinion and the way the Jets handle young talent is really given me a nasty view of them.