Surprised by how many ppl are saying Kucherov over MacKinnon.
- Scoring numbers are a wash
- Kucherov has 4 more points (144 vs. 140, 2.9% higher), but it's a bit naive the consider goals and assists equal, when per team goal scored there's only one player goal, but generally 2 assists
- Mac has 7 more goals (51 vs. 44, 15.9% higher), and has more primary points than Kucherov
- Also worth noting - Kucherov 7 empty net goals, Mac 3
- Just watching them play, Kucherov is more of a pure offensive force, while MacKinnon wins way more puck battles, is much better defensively, and much more physical
- With their offence basically equal, and Mac way better basically everywhere else, seems clear that overall impact on winning is Mac by a wide margin, no?
- Colorado were quite a lot better - 107 points and +50 goal differential vs. 98 points and +23 goal differential. Both teams are not the powerhouses they once were in terms of supporting casts, but I actually think ppl tend to underrate Kucherov's support and overrate Mac's, I think they had very similar overall quality of help this year
- Mac's supporting cast:
- High end help: I have his top 6 teammates as Makar, Rantanen, Toews, Nuke, Lehkonen and Drouin
- Goaltending: crap (Georgiev is a super weak starter)
- Worst hole in lineup: super weak 2C (Mitts is solid, but was only there for 18 games, the rest of the season it was a completely washed RyJo, or Colton)
- Key players missing lots of games: Landeskog missed the whole season, Lehkonen missed 37 games, Nuke missed 28 games
- Overall depth (F/D/G): mediocre
- Kucherov's:
- High end help: I have his top 6 teammates as Point, Hedman, Stamkos, Vasi, Hagel and Sergachev
- Goaltending: strong (I know Vasi didn't put up the greatest numbers this year, but he's a way, way better goalie than Geogiev)
- Worst hole in lineup: 2D, normally fine but Sergachev missed so many games that it became a major hole
- Key players missing lots of games: Sergachev missed 48 games, Cernak missed 13
- Overall depth (F/D/G): mediocre
- Overall their supporting casts were pretty comparable IMO, but Mac's team did a lot better, that's a strong point in Mac's favour
- Also Mac was a team best +35, Kucherov was +8, and well behind his team's leader (Hedman, +18)
- The Avs's overall goal differential was 27 goals better than the Lightning's, and Mac was personally +27 better than Kucherov
A very superficial analysis is that Kucherov scored 4 more points, and had a bigger gap in points to the #2 on his team. But Mac IMO provided a lot more overall value to his team in terms of winning games, his team did quite a bit better (with IMO similar supporting casts), and I just think he's a better overall player. Mac for me, by a fairly wide margin.
Mac vs. McDavid is way closer for me, basically a wash in terms of performance this year (I do think McDavid is the better player, but just this year, quite even). But when it's basically a wash like this (very similar individual and team performance, seemingly very similar impact), the Hart tends to go to a first time winner over someone who's already won, and Mac hasn't won yet while McDavid has 3 Harts, so I think voters would tend to side with Mac. For me either could win ... but slight edge Mac - 8 more points, 19 more goals, a touch better defensively, a bit more physical, team had 3 more points with a similar supporting cast, and yeah, first time winner vs. already has 3.
