Hart Trophy: Who has better claim?

[ncdoc]

Just saying....

MSN

 

[Regal]

It doesn’t work this way when one guy has Makar, Toews, Manson, Girard, Walker and Byram (1 #1D, 1 #2D, 3 #3D, 1 #4D) while his competitor has Hedman and …. broken down Cernak, Perbix, Raddysh, De Haan, Fleury and some Norwegian guy (1 #1D, 1 #4D and a bunch of #6D). It’s not even close. Add here the third worst goaltending in the league from Tampa’s goalies and your argument becomes invadid. It’s a miracle that Kucherov is a net positive ES player with this team, look at Point’s plus-minus.

You ignored the part before the part you bolded:

“MacKinnon not just having a much better goal differential, but raising his team’s goal differential to a greater degree (which is harder to do since the baseline is higher)”

As I said, it isn’t just that MacKinnon’s 5v5 GF% was much better (60.6% 51.6%), it’s that he raised his team’s goal differential with him off the ice (48.5% for a 24.9% increase) more than Kucherov raised Tampa’s with him off the ice (44.1% for a 16.2% increase). And this is despite the fact that it’s harder to increase a higher rate than a lower one.

 

[Regal]

lol, the scoring was higher when Gretzky and Lemieux did it, and no-one has done it since, 40 goals , 100 assists.
Maybe explain why no-one else has done it ever, instead of It’s just isn’t as impressive to me,
[mod]

Explain why we should put stock into the rarity of a season’s totals instead of just comparing goals and assists like any other year. Is 40 G, 100A better than 41G, 99 A? At a certain point these “no one has done it since” records are just interesting footnotes that don’t have actual value.

 

[Roksta]

Can't wait for the winner to be announced and for this useless thread to run its course

 

[dmac7719]

Just saying....

MSN

Lol, keeps saying "far above" yet doesn't provide the stats to support the "far above"

 

[wetcoast]

Can't wait for the winner to be announced and for this useless thread to run its course

When Mack wins it the "Kuch was robbed of the Hart" thread will begin....bet on it.

 

[Golden_Jet]

When Mack wins it the "Kuch was robbed of the Hart" thread will begin....bet on it.

If Kuch wins, same thing will happen,

 

[wetcoast]

If Kuch wins, same thing will happen,

Sure but Kuch isn't going to win and most people already know that.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Sure but Kuch isn't going to win and most people already know that.

Obviously that’s your biased hope.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

When Mack wins it the "Kuch was robbed of the Hart" thread will begin....bet on it.

Rightfully so

 

[TheGoldenJet]

MacKinnon would be the most deserving winner this year. People need to stop with the pre-emptive sour grapes.

 

[wetcoast]

Obviously that’s your biased hope.

No actually I can read and in the last ESPN poll of the actual voters it was Mack by quite a bit.

 

[Golden_Jet]

No actually I can read and in the last ESPN poll of the actual voters it was Mack by quite a bit.

This one,

Wyshynski: Why Nikita Kucherov has the best case for the Hart Trophy

This might be the most "no wrong answers" MVP race in recent memory. But one answer is more right than the other ones.

www.espn.com

Or this one

NHL Awards Watch: Kucherov takes the lead for the Hart

Our latest poll of PHWA voters produced some big changes, including for MVP and rookie of the year.

africa.espn.com

Looks like ESPN has 7 votes out of 196 voters, and looks like got about 5 of 7 reading one of the articles, so 2.5% , Weird flex for 2.5% lol.

 

[wetcoast]

This one,

Wyshynski: Why Nikita Kucherov has the best case for the Hart Trophy

This might be the most "no wrong answers" MVP race in recent memory. But one answer is more right than the other ones.

www.espn.com

Or this one

NHL Awards Watch: Kucherov takes the lead for the Hart

Our latest poll of PHWA voters produced some big changes, including for MVP and rookie of the year.

africa.espn.com

Looks like ESPN has 7 votes out of 196 voters, and looks like got about 5 of 7 reading one of the articles, so 2.5% , Weird flex for 2.5% lol.

ESPN had a previous more expansive look going into the last one or 2 weeks from a larger sample that had Mack at over 70% not just their in house voters.

 

[NVious]

Rightfully so

Not really, 4 points is nothing and if you want to say important to team, McDavid and Matthews have just as much of a case as Kucherov to that claim.

There will be no robbery any which way, you can't go wrong with any of the names, they all had fantastic seasons in their own right.

 

[Golden_Jet]

ESPN had a previous more expansive look going into the last one or 2 weeks from a larger sample that had Mack at over 70% not just their in house voters.

Ok where is it.

 

[ncdoc]

Lol, keeps saying "far above" yet doesn't provide the stats to support the "far above"

I really did not want to push this. Just I think we lose HART versus ART. Can not exclude the great seasons these guys had. Wold not argue with you, just thought interesting.

 

[Spirits]

MacKinnon hasn't won anything because he is on the edge of elite as opposed to being elite. Always has been. That doesn't make him a bad player either but the idea that he is somehow "due" is laughable

Might be the single worst post I have seen on these forums.

 

[eviohh26]

What are peoples reason behind why Mack deserves it over Kuch other than " He Is the MVP " ?

 

[Rschmitz]

If the names on their stat sheets were swapped, Kucherov doesn't even make the finalist lists.

 

[Rschmitz]

Sure but Kuch isn't going to win and most people already know that.

True, but we already knew that he was getting it back in January based on the whims of journalists, before the games were actually played and Kucherov showed he was statistically the better player.

There just isn't a statistical argument, or an achievement, that puts Mackinnon above Kucherov, especially considering that Kucherov doing it as a winger has never been done before, not even close.

 

[The Marquis]

Didn’t Kuch tie or break a record for empty net goals this year? Also, didn’t Mack have far more 5 on 5 goals? kuch definitely took advantage of opportunities to pad his stats, but I’m neutral as to who deserves it. It’s one of those two but it doesn’t matter.

 

[Chet Manley]

The Hart goes to whichever player gives the voters a narrative to write about and use to promote themselves. I feel foolish for giving it so much value as a kid.

 

[Czechboy]

All I know is that everytime Bouchard gets a point.. it is because of McDavid. And when Hyman scores it is because of McDavid. Rnhs 100 points.. McDavid. Drai not being a checking 3C.. also McDavid. Every single Oiler sucks and is only good because of McD. That is the MVP is that is the case.lol

 

[ponder]

Surprised by how many ppl are saying Kucherov over MacKinnon.

• Scoring numbers are a wash
  • Kucherov has 4 more points (144 vs. 140, 2.9% higher), but it's a bit naive the consider goals and assists equal, when per team goal scored there's only one player goal, but generally 2 assists
  • Mac has 7 more goals (51 vs. 44, 15.9% higher), and has more primary points than Kucherov
  • Also worth noting - Kucherov 7 empty net goals, Mac 3
• Just watching them play, Kucherov is more of a pure offensive force, while MacKinnon wins way more puck battles, is much better defensively, and much more physical
  • With their offence basically equal, and Mac way better basically everywhere else, seems clear that overall impact on winning is Mac by a wide margin, no?
• Colorado were quite a lot better - 107 points and +50 goal differential vs. 98 points and +23 goal differential. Both teams are not the powerhouses they once were in terms of supporting casts, but I actually think ppl tend to underrate Kucherov's support and overrate Mac's, I think they had very similar overall quality of help this year
  • Mac's supporting cast:
    • High end help: I have his top 6 teammates as Makar, Rantanen, Toews, Nuke, Lehkonen and Drouin
    • Goaltending: crap (Georgiev is a super weak starter)
    • Worst hole in lineup: super weak 2C (Mitts is solid, but was only there for 18 games, the rest of the season it was a completely washed RyJo, or Colton)
    • Key players missing lots of games: Landeskog missed the whole season, Lehkonen missed 37 games, Nuke missed 28 games
    • Overall depth (F/D/G): mediocre
  • Kucherov's:
    • High end help: I have his top 6 teammates as Point, Hedman, Stamkos, Vasi, Hagel and Sergachev
    • Goaltending: strong (I know Vasi didn't put up the greatest numbers this year, but he's a way, way better goalie than Geogiev)
    • Worst hole in lineup: 2D, normally fine but Sergachev missed so many games that it became a major hole
    • Key players missing lots of games: Sergachev missed 48 games, Cernak missed 13
    • Overall depth (F/D/G): mediocre
  • Overall their supporting casts were pretty comparable IMO, but Mac's team did a lot better, that's a strong point in Mac's favour
    • Also Mac was a team best +35, Kucherov was +8, and well behind his team's leader (Hedman, +18)
    • The Avs's overall goal differential was 27 goals better than the Lightning's, and Mac was personally +27 better than Kucherov

A very superficial analysis is that Kucherov scored 4 more points, and had a bigger gap in points to the #2 on his team. But Mac IMO provided a lot more overall value to his team in terms of winning games, his team did quite a bit better (with IMO similar supporting casts), and I just think he's a better overall player. Mac for me, by a fairly wide margin.

Mac vs. McDavid is way closer for me, basically a wash in terms of performance this year (I do think McDavid is the better player, but just this year, quite even). But when it's basically a wash like this (very similar individual and team performance, seemingly very similar impact), the Hart tends to go to a first time winner over someone who's already won, and Mac hasn't won yet while McDavid has 3 Harts, so I think voters would tend to side with Mac. For me either could win ... but slight edge Mac - 8 more points, 19 more goals, a touch better defensively, a bit more physical, team had 3 more points with a similar supporting cast, and yeah, first time winner vs. already has 3.