Hart Trophy: Who has better claim?

[Outl4w]

You’re making it sound like the only reason Mack might win is because of his nationality and nothing else, which is far from the truth. Regardless of what you tell yourself, its dead close. Posted this somewhere else but just a few numbers to consider:

Tampa’s top 5 scorers:
144, 90, 81, 76, 75

Colorado’s top 5 scorers:
140, 104, 90, 56, 53

On ice goal differential:
Mack 97
Kuch 71

On-ice expected goals
Mack: 64.8 (without mack 41.8)
Kuch: 61.8 (without kuch 42.4%)

5 on 5 scoring:
Mack: 78
Kuch: 67

Adding to this, Mackinnon has actually been a pretty solid 2-way player this year and pretty much every model/metric supports this. He’s been dominating the puck like non-other this season
Kucherovs definitely a much better player on the PP which is also extremely important, but more points = better year is just a lazy argument, especially when the point gap is just 4 points.
There’s an argument for both players, and not just because one’s russian and one’s canadian. Heck the past 15 years the hart has been awarded to a Russian 5 times and to a Canadian 7 times. It’s really not as big of a factor as you’re making it sound like, if any.

Kucherov accounts for more of his teams offense and has a wider point gap.
+/-is a team stat favors better defensive teams. Lightning defense is way worse than Colorado . Tbl has second worse goaltending in league only worse than Ottawa unless it changed last night.
Kucherov has lower plus minus because he is more effective on powerplay. You don't get a plus when u score on power play.
Kucherov is a better shooter but isn't selfish. He makes the play that has the best chance at scoring. He loves to set up his teammates and is better at it than Mack.
Player a more points
Player a better points per game
Player a better shooting percentage
Player a counts for higher percentage of his teams offensive production.
Player a has more ppg against top 10 teams
Player a has more assist
Player b has more goals on 100 more shots and a lower percentage to score on his shots.
Player b is better on defense
Player b is not good at face-offs
Player A is in a historical category with Gretzky an lemieux with
100 assist
Player A is better

 

[TheFinalWord]

Hardly a representative sample size but an NHL.COM panel of hockey writers and analysts had MacKinnon winning by a small margin over Kucherov with McDavid in third.

I do wonder how much North American bias is present. There shouldn't be any, given the global reach of the game, but many hockey writers definitely have their biases. But again, I don't think there's a bad choice this year, which is a good thing.

There were times OV won awards that could have (sometimes should have...CS) gone another way. I'm not sure it is necessarily (although it could also be) a bias toward nationality, rather charisma. Now Kucherov does have charisma, but not at the same level as OV. If he doesn't win, it doesn't mean it's a bias toward Canadians or North Americans. The race is close and all 3 have a reasonable shot. McDavid won't win because people expect too much from him. So if he doesn't blow away the competition, then he won't win. It really will be Kucherov vs MacKinnon IMO. If it was me, I would vote for MacKinnon because he's Canadian.

 

[ItWasJustified]

MacKinnon was the most dominating player this regular season.

 

[Leafsfanperson]

Matthews led the league by 12 goals. It's a big margin, but others have had larger leads:

1. Ovechkin 2008 (65 vs 52)
2. Bure 2000 (58 vs 44)
3. Hull 1992 (70 vs 54)
4. Hull 1991 (86 vs 51 - the record)
5. Lemieux 1989 (85 vs 70)
6. Lemieux 1988 (70 vs 56)
7. Gretzky 1984 (87 vs 56)
8. Gretzky 1982 (92 vs 64)
9. Esposito 1974 (68 vs 52)
10. Esposito 1972 (66 vs 50)
11. Esposito 1971 (76 vs 51)
12. Hull 1967 (52 vs 35)
13. Hull 1962 (50 vs 33)
14. Howe 1953 (49 vs 32)
15. Howe 1952 (47 vs 31)
16. Richard 1947 (45 vs 30)
17. Richard 1945 (50 vs 32)

If I calculated this correctly, Matthews won the Rocket Richard by the 18th largest margin in NHL history (and the largest margin since Ovechkin's 2008 campaign).

I meant it in the context of the Richard award so from 1998 on, figure that be a fair context and make the numbers contemporary. Not every year in history

Great post though, thanks for doing the research.

MacKinnon was the most dominating player this regular season.

Why because his stickhandles a lot?

 

[heretik27]

I’m in the minority who thinks McDavid should win. A lot of people forget that Edmonton was dead and buried before he got healthy. I think their playoff odds were like 10% at one point.

I mean, Edmonton's season also turned around when they fired their head coach. It's not JUST because McDavid got healthier.

 

[Golden_Jet]

I was talking with my older son about this and he said why are the hockey writers making this decision. Wouldn't a player's value to his team be agreed upon by his teammates and / or peer players? The example he used was something like a high school valedictorian. He said the Ted Lindsay award is probably more meaningful and to an extent I agree. He says having the hockey writers make the choice is like having parents' vote. I'm not sure I agree with that - maybe more having the teachers vote.

It would be nice if the criteria was straight on objective data and statistics - ie. Hart Trophy is awarded to player who does X, Y, or Z. Sort of like Art Ross and Rocket Richard.

But I think gauging value is far beyond what can be shown statistically. Some intangibles cannot be quantified. Otherwise, in baseball Barry Bonds and Roger Clements would be in Cooperstown.

To a degree, I think maybe even fan polling would be more representative of player value than a set of hockey writers and industry types, but even with fan polling, it can be skewed and manipulated.

Fan voting would be worse.

 

[Rschmitz]

Mackinnon played an extra 115 more minutes than Kucherov this season, including 42 more minutes of PP time than Kucherov, but scored 5 fewer PP points and 4 fewer points overall.

Kucherov has the higher Offensive Point Share

When games are within one goal or tied, Kucherov's PDO is 100.7, while Mackinnon's PDO drops from 102.7 all the way down to 96.9 when tied. Mackinnon plays his best during garbage time.

When games are within one goal or tied, the quality of shots on Lightning goalies decreases while Kucherov is on the ice, while the reverse is true while Mackinnon is on the ice.

Kucherov has faced by far the tougher competition. Colorado had the easiest strength of schedule in the league this year.

Kucherov has by far the highest ppg against top 5 competition in the league. The harder the competition, in the most meaningful part of the game, Kucherov excels while Mackinnon chokes.

Am I doing this right?

 

[ManofSteel55]

I think MacKinnon wins it and it's easy for any voter to come to that conclusion.

• 50+ goals
• +34 vs +8
• Didn't behave like a clown at the all star game
• Haven't won the Hart before, despite deserving it
• More likeable as a person

Except 3 of those things don't touch the criteria at all.

I'm not a Kucherov fan because of your 3rd and 5th point, but 100 assists and leading the league in points is pretty impressive. Most voters won't even know or care about things like empty net points to discount Kucherov for that. It'll be interesting to see how the votes end up. This year, I think the top 3 guys all have an argument to win it.

 

[killa3312]

Mackinnon played an extra 115 more minutes than Kucherov this season, including 42 more minutes of PP time than Kucherov, but scored 5 fewer PP points and 4 fewer points overall.

Kucherov has the higher Offensive Point Share

When games are within one goal or tied, Kucherov's PDO is 100.7, while Mackinnon's PDO drops from 102.7 all the way down to 96.9 when tied. Mackinnon plays his best during garbage time.

When games are within one goal or tied, the quality of shots on Lightning goalies decreases while Kucherov is on the ice, while the reverse is true while Mackinnon is on the ice.

Kucherov has faced by far the tougher competition. Colorado had the easiest strength of schedule in the league this year.

Kucherov has by far the highest ppg against top 5 competition in the league. The harder the competition, in the most meaningful part of the game, Kucherov excels while Mackinnon chokes.

Am I doing this right?

Amazing stats, I would love to see someone argue as to why Kucherov shouldn’t win after seeing this post.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Fan voting would be worse.

We'd see ballot stuffing for sure. Matthews would win it every year, until a viral campaign for a Matt Rempe type happened, ha ha.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

Kucherov cant even drag his team into a non wildcard spot.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

Mackinnon played an extra 115 more minutes than Kucherov this season, including 42 more minutes of PP time than Kucherov, but scored 5 fewer PP points and 4 fewer points overall.

Kucherov has the higher Offensive Point Share

When games are within one goal or tied, Kucherov's PDO is 100.7, while Mackinnon's PDO drops from 102.7 all the way down to 96.9 when tied. Mackinnon plays his best during garbage time.

When games are within one goal or tied, the quality of shots on Lightning goalies decreases while Kucherov is on the ice, while the reverse is true while Mackinnon is on the ice.

Kucherov has faced by far the tougher competition. Colorado had the easiest strength of schedule in the league this year.

Kucherov has by far the highest ppg against top 5 competition in the league. The harder the competition, in the most meaningful part of the game, Kucherov excels while Mackinnon chokes.

Am I doing this right?

Of course kucherov scores a bunch within one goal, its all empty net points.

 

[Plastic Joseph]

The Hockey news just released their awards picks. This was their Hart vote.

 

[Outl4w]

Kucherov cant even drag his team into a non wildcard spot.

Kucherov dragged his team to back.to back cups. Mackinnon couldn’t win back to back cups. Mackinnon doesn't have the most points in a playoff run . Kucherov has led the league in playoff points twice. Seems kucherov is better against better competitors than Mackinnon. There is a case to be made for both ,but if you are looking at it from a nonbias point of view kucherov wins more head to categories .

View attachment 855309


The Hockey news just released their awards picks. This was their Hart vote.

Canadian bias from Canada shocked.

 

[Rschmitz]

Mackinnon played 1387 minutes this year when games were either tied or within one goal. His PDO during that time was 96.9

He played 483 minutes this year when games were separated by more than one goal. During that time his PDO was 119.3

This is insane.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

View attachment 855309


The Hockey news just released their awards picks. This was their Hart vote.

I wonder how many of them get a vote. But its probably done for kucherov.

 

[tucker3434]

Kucherov accounts for more of his teams offense and has a wider point gap.
+/-is a team stat favors better defenseivd teams. Lightning defense is way worse than Colorado .
Kucherov has lower plus minus because he is more effective on powerplay. You don't get a plus when u score on power play.
Kucherov is a better shooter but isn't selfish. He makes the play thThas the best chance at scoring. He loves to set up his teammates and is better at it than Mack.
Player a more points
Player a better points per game
Player a better shooting percentage
Player a counts for higher percentage of his teams offensive production
Player a has more ppg against top 10 teams
Player a has more assist
Player b has more goals on 100 more.shots and a lower percentage to score
Player b is better on defense
Player b is not good at face-offs
Player A is in a historical category with Gretzky an lemieux with
100 assist
Player A is better

Player a more points - By 4, with 6 extra empty net points
Player a better points per game - See above
Player a better shooting percentage - scraping the bottom of the barrel for this one, I've never seen anyone care about shooting percentage except for predicting future scoring. As a historical data point, it's irrelevant.
Player a counts for higher percentage of his teams offensive production - This is why the Avs won more games. If we deleted Ross Colton from the Avs, the Avs lost 5 more games, and nothing else changed, does that strengthen MacKinnon's Hart argument? That's ridiculous.
Player a has more ppg against top 10 teams - Circular argument. Why can't Kucherov put up points against weaker teams?
Player a has more assist - Offset by goals.
Player b has more goals on 100 more.shots and a lower percentage to score
Player b is better on defense
Player b is not good at face-offs
Player A is in a historical category with Gretzky an lemieux with
100 assist - This seems like a lot of nothing, considering McDavid also did it, and MacKinnon had 89 with an extra 7 goals. Scoring is up across the board.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

Mackinnon played 1387 minutes this year when games were either tied or within one goal. His PDO during that time was 96.9

He played 483 minutes this year when games were separated by more than one goal. During that time his PDO was 119.3

This is insane.

None of this matters.

 

[Outl4w]

Player a more points - By 4, with 6 extra empty net points
Player a better points per game - See above
Player a better shooting percentage - scraping the bottom of the barrel for this one, I've never seen anyone care about shooting percentage except for predicting future scoring. As a historical data point, it's irrelevant.
Player a counts for higher percentage of his teams offensive production - This is why the Avs won more games. If we deleted Ross Colton from the Avs, the Avs lost 5 more games, and nothing else changed, does that strengthen MacKinnon's Hart argument? That's ridiculous.
Player a has more ppg against top 10 teams - Circular argument. Why can't Kucherov put up points against weaker teams?
Player a has more assist - Offset by goals.
Player b has more goals on 100 more.shots and a lower percentage to score
Player b is better on defense
Player b is not good at face-offs
Player A is in a historical category with Gretzky an lemieux with
100 assist - This seems like a lot of nothing, considering McDavid also did it, and MacKinnon had 89 with an extra 7 goals. Scoring is up across the board.

Playwr b played over 1000 more minutes And finished with less points. That makes it even worse for.mack not better.
Player a higher ppg, higher points per 60 mins, higher points when game is tied, higher total points, higher shooting percentage scoring 44 goals, higher points per game against top5/10 teams and led the league in points.
Player b has more goals and played over 1000 more minutes but has a lower shooting percentagentage.
The gap between macks goal lead to kucherovs and kucherovs assist lead to macks assist still favors kuch.
If anything seems you are trying to prop up a guy that doesn't perform as well per game , per 60.minutes , and is worst against the better competition.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

Playwr b played over 1000 more minutes And finished with less points. That makes it even worse for.mack not better.

Playing more because hes more valuable to his team. Kucherov getting shelthered for his poor defense.

 

[Rschmitz]

None of this matters.

of course not, voters don't look at the stats when they cast their votes

 

[killa3312]

Giving players awards because they’re “due” is how other players end up being historically underrated in history. Just like with the Conn Smythe’s he should have won, people are going to look back in history at Kucherov and be like “Only one Hart, he’s not up there with some of the elite wingers in history” and they’d be wrong. Such a shame.

 

[Outl4w]

Playing more because hes more valuable to his team. Kucherov getting shelthered for his poor defense.

Sheltered? The lightning defense is trash this year outside of Hedman . Cernak has taken a step or two back, and the rest are all 6/7 play roles 3-6.
Kucherov must be better than you realiE at defense , he is one of the only positive +/- players on a bad defensive team the majority of the team is negative. Sadly he doesn't get to play the sharks,ducks, Blackhawks, or coyotes as much as Mackinnon to pad his stats. Edmonton dressed a terrible lineup giving Mack a great chance to close the lead and he didn't do it.

 

[Rschmitz]

Player b is better on defense

Talk about scrapping the bottom of the barrel. Mack's 73% offensive zone draws, 46% faceoffs, and team SV% of .880 while he's on the ice.

100 assist - This seems like a lot of nothing, considering McDavid also did it, and MacKinnon had 89 with an extra 7 goals. Scoring is up across the board.

100 assists is a lot of nothing. LOL

 

[GirardSpinorama]

Giving players awards because they’re “due” is how other players end up being historically underrated in history. Just like with the Conn Smythe’s he should have won, people are going to look back in history at Kucherov and be like “Only one Hart, he’s not up there with some of the elite wingers in history” and they’d be wrong. Such a shame.

Wingers just aren't as valuable as centers so they wont win many harts anyways.