Hart Trophy: Who has better claim?

[Breakfast of Champs]

I am afraid Kucherov has ran away with it and I think the voters will share the same opinion. Unless MacK piles on multiple points against the Oilers tonite, Kucherov has a nice easy gap, and led the Art Ross race for such a huge percentage of the season.

The gap is going to be 6 or less pts and Mackinnon will have 7 or more goals on Kuch.

If mack can put up 3 pts in his final game kuch will have 99% as many pts as Kucherov.

This is not a runaway , its a very, very tight race and i expect the votes to vmbe very close. FWIW on TNT before the lightning game (kuch had a 4 pt lead) all 3 of Lundqvist, Carter and Biz chose mackinnon. They obviously aren't voters, but it says something about how at least part of the media (and former players) feel about it currently.

I wouldn't expect a kuch runaway, madness a narrow win

 

[avsfan2189]

Mentioned this in a previous thread, but wanted to re-make these points for Mack's Case.

- 35 Home Game point Streak to start a season (2nd only behind Gretzky)

- the ONLY player in nhl history to have 2 19-game point streaks in the same season

- Col would likely be a wildcard at best (possibly out of playoffs without Mack because of Ryan Johansen being the 2nd line center AND Georgiev letting in 4 goals in 40% of his starts (insane). Makar and rantanen wouldnt be able to overcome this (especially with Nuke and Girard absences for chunks of the season)

- would be one of a handful of players in history that will have had a 50 Goal + 90 Assist Season (should he get 90 assists to finisht he year)

- highest point total by an Avalanche ever, and is due to break the all time franchise record for points in a season (Stastny back in the 80s)

-90+ Even Strength points, which hasnt been done since the mid 90s

What Nate has done night in and night out is has been nothing short of incredible this year. a lot is made up about the points game between Kuch and his teammates but he's one of 3 40 goal scorers on the team, 6 players including him have 20+ goals. Tampa has 5 players with 70+ points.

On the Avs, ONLY Mackinnon, Makar and Rants have over 57 points!! (drouin has 56 so I'm going to use 57 as the benchmark), but round up to 60+ and its still the same.

 

[Breakfast of Champs]

harder for whom? Matthews might score 70 goals one day, but he will NEVER score 70 assists, let alone 100. so it's definitely harder for him to assist because he's not a playmaker

Harder because it's rarer. It's a fact that fewer goals are scored than assists are recorded.

There's a reason Matthews is a hart candidate despite having so many less pts - because he scored more goals than everyone by a lot. Mack's goal gap on kuch isn't the end all be all , but it is something

 

[Soul Assumption]

Harder because it's rarer.

5 players scored 100 assists. 8 players scored 70 goals

 

[REALTALK81]

Kuch would get my vote.

 

[splot]

If (when) the Kings beat the Blackhawks tonight, 8 of the top 13 teams are in the West. The East just have a large group of utterly mediocre teams in the middle. Which is why two of their playoff teams have a GD of 38 and 58 worse than the worst playoff team in the West.

Not sure how you can say that the East is deep.

Why is no one bothering to look up actual stats of how western vs eastern teams did when they played against each other before making claims that is so blatantly false?
Tampa Bay has 0.641 PTS% vs west and 0.570 PTS% vs east.
Colorado has 0.714 PTS% vs west and 0.547 PTS% vs east.
It's the same for the vast majority of teams, the eastern conference is far better than the western this year and its not close.

 

[Breakfast of Champs]

5 players scored 100 assists. 8 players scored 70 goals

That doesn't mean goals aren't rarer or more valuable, they are both.

I don't think Matthews deserves the hart , but the only reason he is close despite having more than 30 fewer points is because he had so many goals.

In a vacuum, goals are more valuable than assists. Is 100 assists more valuable than 7p goals? Maybe , but if points are equal goals hold more value , as they should. A gap of 6 pts on #2 while having 7 fewer goals does not generally lead to a runaway hart trophy.

Kucherov fans are having g difficulty understanding that people are of the opinion he hasn't run away with the mvp, because he hasn't

 

[Video Nasty]

Much like the end of 2017-2018, the Avs are cold down the stretch, 3-5-2 heading into tonight’s game. MacKinnon has been better as an individual this time around. I doubt the voters are going to give up their chance at this point.

I would give it to Kucherov myself, but I think his hardcore fans need to read the writing on the wall. MacKinnon has been the favorite amongst the writers at the halfway and three quarters point. I don’t think anything was going to sway the majority of the vote in the final portion of the season.

 

[M88K]

Kuch is my pick, He deserves it after the season he had, and his All-Star performance just reinforces it

 

[These Are The Days]

People. If you have to run this many circles to defend MacKinnon then he isn't your winner.

 

[Voight]

It'll be one of the closest votes in NHL history IMO and while I would have no gripes against MackInnon winning it, I think Kuch putting his name in the record books last night clinched it.

 

[Romang67]

Why is no one bothering to look up actual stats of how western vs eastern teams did when they played against each other before making claims that is so blatantly false?
Tampa Bay has 0.641 PTS% vs west and 0.570 PTS% vs east.
Colorado has 0.714 PTS% vs west and 0.547 PTS% vs east.
It's the same for the vast majority of teams, the eastern conference is far better than the western this year and its not close.

The mediocre group of teams (teams in the "playoff race" in the East, 84-94pts) I was talking about had the following point percentage against the West:

.547
.469
.531
.531
.515
.656

And against the East:

.56
.54
.60
.57
.55
.47

Philly is the outlier. All other teams in that group had a better point percentage against the East than against the West.

Not sure why you'd assume I hadn't looked up if that group of teams were just hard done by having to play in the East, or why you think it's blatantly false that the East had a large group of teams that were utterly mediocre, even though they didn't have the bottom feeders that the West did.

 

[Soul Assumption]

A gap of 6 pts on #2 while having 7 fewer goals does not generally lead to a runaway hart trophy.

100 assists, outscored Point by 54p, much better performance against top teams
There are so many arguments for Kucherov. arguments for MacKinnon are basically just a little more goals and better +/-, thanks to the weaker division and the conference.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

Centers tend to win the hart and lindsay just being the more valuable position.

100 assists, outscored Point by 54p, much better performance against top teams
There are so many arguments for Kucherov. arguments for MacKinnon are basically just a little more goals and better +/-, thanks to the weaker division and the conference.

Tampa cant even get a division spot.

 

[avsfan2189]

100 assists, outscored Point by 54p, much better performance against top teams
There are so many arguments for Kucherov. arguments for MacKinnon are basically just a little more goals and better +/-, thanks to the weaker division and the conference.

see my points then, way better case made

 

[ecemleafs]

think its gotta be kuch. significantly more productive than his teammates. most points in the league. his team caught fire down the stretch and are comfortably made the playoffs. edmonton and colorado didnt finish with that many more points than tampa.

 

[Romang67]

100 assists, outscored Point by 54p, much better performance against top teams
There are so many arguments for Kucherov. arguments for MacKinnon are basically just a little more goals and better +/-, thanks to the weaker division and the conference.

Is Kucherov's +/- really worse because Colorado played in a weaker division, and not because Kucherov was on the ice for the most goals against 5v5 of any forward in the league this year?

Kucherov's 5v5 +/- was +5 this year, compared to MacKinnon's +36. Not sure we can chalk that up to the difference in quality between the divisions.

 

[Rob Brown]

harder for whom? Matthews might score 70 goals one day, but he will NEVER score 70 assists, let alone 100. so it's definitely harder for him to assist because he's not a playmaker

Harder in the sense that there are up to two assists attributed per goal - it's easier to rack up assists than it is to rack up goals, hence why it's so hard to even get 60+ goals. You're not going to see anyone get 100 in a season.

 

[Soul Assumption]

Is Kucherov's +/- really worse because Colorado played in a weaker division, and not because Kucherov was on the ice for the most goals against 5v5 of any forward in the league this year?

yes, because the weaker the division, the fewer goals you will allow

 

[Plastic Joseph]

100 assists, outscored Point by 54p, much better performance against top teams
There are so many arguments for Kucherov. arguments for MacKinnon are basically just a little more goals and better +/-, thanks to the weaker division and the conference.

these have been brought up so many times, then MacKinnon supporters will bring up the fact that outside of the top 2 MacKinnon has a larger gap, better defensive metrics, and a better net value score.

This hart is highly debated and both have valid arguments.

 

[Tralfamadore]

Sucks for Mack but I think Kuch deserves it more but I can see the voters choosing Mack for various reasons.

 

[Romang67]

yes, because the weaker the division, the fewer goals you will allow

Why does Kucherov have more goals allowed against 5v5 than any other forward in the Atlantic Division, Eastern Conference, and the league?

I don't think this argument holds up to scrutiny in the slightest.

 

[Dirtyf1ghter]

Kucherov is the one who carried his team the most.

 

[Outl4w]

If (when) the Kings beat the Blackhawks tonight, 8 of the top 13 teams are in the West. The East just have a large group of utterly mediocre teams in the middle. Which is why two of their playoff teams have a GD of 38 and 58 worse than the worst playoff team in the West.

Not sure how you can say that the East is deep.

Less bottom feeders and more teams with 110 plus points. Makes a deeper conference top to bottom. Mack performed worse against the top 10 teams and scored less points per game and overall against lesser teams in his conference . Seems pretty easy to see who performed better.

 

[Panteras]

Kuch is the clear MVP.