Grandpabuzz
Registered User
Below are my potential-adjusted rankings for the 2012 NHL Draft with associated “maximum potential ratings†(the maximum rating that this player can be in the NHL, given their current age). Almost all of these players will ultimately fall a bit lower than the rating shown below, once/if they make it to the NHL and as they age.
These rankings and ratings are not based on the player’s skillset in terms of skating ability, speed, checking or personality, but are based on the outcome of those abilities in terms of goals, assists, PIM and near-to-all other numerical information about the player’s performance, position, body (age, height, weight), and team (how team performed, which league player is from). These variables are then put together in an algorithm which compares the prospect’s performance to a collection of NHL players who have played in that specific league earlier in their career. Each current NHL player has a value already assigned to them based on their performance in the NHL (which is an entirely different discussion but is based on advanced NHL statistics for those who are familiar with the subject). Outliers are removed before the data is run through a program similar to regression which then outputs a “max potential rating†to each prospect. Note that there are some prospects which play in leagues/schools (Mark Jankowski for example) that cannot be part of the system because there is not enough data to compare them to. However, for about 95% of the prospects out there, I was able to assign a value to them.
I know this list will be considered a joke and completely far fetched for everyone here, but again, these rankings/ratings are not meant to be a definitive number to determine where a player should be drafted. The intent is to corroborate existing empirical evidence scouts/others have of players with a basis of historical statistical comparison. I’ve been working on variations of this project for over the past five years and finally believe there is enough data to make initial estimates for these players/prospects. However, this is a fluid process and as more data becomes available (as new NHL players emerge every year) the numbers will be subject to change over time.
As a reference here are what I have a sample of current NHL players rated as:
Player
|
Rating
Sidney Crosby:| 80
Bobby Ryan:| 69
Teemu Selanne:| 64
Niklas Hagman:| 59
Andrew Cogliano:| 55
||
Lubomir Visnovsky:| 62
Toni Lydman:| 58
Cam Fowler:| 53
||
Jonas Hiller:| 61
Dan Ellis:| 54
Again, I will hopefully get a new topic out there soon about what went into making those ratings above. As a guiding point a score of 62 or above is first line/pair talent, 58-62 is second line/pair talent, 54-58 is third line/pair talent, and below are fringe/fourth line players.
Notable Players who did not have enough supporting data to be rated and are not on this list:
Thomas Spelling, Mark Jankowski, Mackenzie Maceachern, Drake Caggiula, Devin Shore, Daniel O'Regan, Brian Hart, Ben Hutton, James Haas, Mackenzie Weegar, Patrik Luza, Travis Jeke
Notable Players who did not have a high enough rating to warrant being listed
Martin Frk, Slater Koekkoek, Adam Pelech, Matej Beran, Zachary Stepan, Valeri Vasiliev, Alex Gudbranson
Pick
|
Player
|
Position
|
Rating
1 |Mikhail Grigorenko |F |68.7
2 |Esa Lindell |D |66.4
3 |Nail Yakupov |F |66.4
4 |Alex Galchenyuk |F |65.9
5 |Joonas Korpisalo |G |64.3
6 |Kevin Roy |F |63.2
7 |Tim Bozon |F |63.1
8 |Ryan Murray |D |63.0
9 |Jordan Schmaltz |D |62.6
10 |Olli Maatta |D |62.2
11 |Phillip Giuseppe |F |62.1
12 |Cody Ceci |D |62.0
13 |Ryan Culkin |D |61.8
14 |Niklas Treutle |G |61.7
15 |Shayne Gostisbehere |D |61.5
16 |Coda Gordon |F |61.2
17 |Sean Maguire |G |60.6
18 |Radek Faksa |F |59.5
19 |Connor Brown |F |59.5
20 |Morgan Rielly |D |59.5
21 |Zemgus Girgensons |F |59.5
22 |Jesse Graham |D |59.3
23 |Teuvo Teravainen |F |59.2
24 |Brendan Leipsic |F |59.2
25 |Tomas Hertl |F |59.1
26 |Brendan Gaunce |F |59.1
27 |Justin Hache |D |58.8
28 |Travis Brown |D |58.7
29 |Alex Kile |F |58.3
30 |Mathew Dumba |D |58.2
| Round 2 | |
31 |Mathias Niederberger |G |57.9
32 |Ville Pokka |D |57.8
33 |Jarrod Maidens |F |57.8
34 |Etienne Marcoux |G |57.6
35 |Nick Ebert |D |57.5
36 |Troy Bourke |F |57.4
37 |Andrei Vasilevski |G |57.4
38 |Henrik Samuelsson |F |57.3
39 |Tanner Pearson |F |57.3
40 |Daniil Zharkov |F |57.3
41 |Damon Severson |D |57.2
42 |Dylan Blujus |D |57.2
43 |Robert Baillargeon |F |57.1
44 |Michael Houser |G |57.1
45 |Henri Ikonen |F |57.0
46 |Logan Nelson |F |57.0
47 |Kristoff Kontos |F |57.0
48 |Chris Marchese |F |57.0
49 |Mike Winther |F |56.9
50 |Jujhar Khaira |F |56.9
51 |Scott Laughton |F |56.8
52 |Matia Marcantuoni |F |56.7
53 |Anton Zlobin |F |56.7
54 |Filip Forsberg |F |56.6
55 |Griffin Reinhart |D |56.6
56 |Samuel Kurker |F |56.5
57 |Mathew Campagna |F |56.5
58 |Zakhar Arzamastsev |D |56.5
59 |Justin Kloos |F |56.4
60 |Tanner Richard |F |56.4
| Round 3 | |
61 |Francois Brassard |G |56.3
62 |Brady Vail |F |56.2
63 |Andreas Athanasiou |F |56.2
64 |Scott Kosmachuk |F |56.2
65 |Artur Gavrus |F |56.2
66 |Luke Cairns |F |56.1
67 |Grant Besse |F |56.1
68 |Morgan Zulinick |F |56.0
69 |Malcolm Subban |G |56.0
70 |Taylor Leier |F |55.9
71 |Sebastian Collberg |F |55.8
72 |Nathan Walker |F |55.8
73 |Ben Johnson |F |55.8
74 |Calle Andersson |D |55.8
75 |Nikita Gusev |F |55.7
76 |Brandon Whitney |G |55.7
77 |Alex Kerfoot |F |55.7
78 |Pontus Aberg |F |55.7
79 |Jon Gillies |G |55.7
80 |Chandler Stephenson |F |55.6
81 |Colton Sissons |F |55.6
82 |Matthew Finn |D |55.5
83 |Gemel Smith |F |55.4
84 |Dane Fox |F |55.4
85 |Ryan Olsen |F |55.4
86 |Michael Matheson |D |55.3
87 |Brady Brassart |F |55.3
88 |Matej Machovsky |G |55.2
89 |Vincent Hinostroza |F |55.2
90 |Matthew Morris |G |55.1
| Round 4 | |
91 |Chris Tierney |F |55.1
92 |Michael Clarke |F |55.1
93 |Topi Nattinen |F |55.1
94 |Peter Quenneville |F |55.1
95 |Nikolai Prokhorkin |F |55.0
96 |Jake McCabe |D |54.9
97 |Niklas Tikkinen |D |54.9
98 |Malte Stromwall |F |54.9
99 |Christopher Clapperton |F |54.9
100 |Robert Leino |F |54.9
101 |Matthew Benning |D |54.9
102 |AJ Michaelson |F |54.8
103 |Henrik Haapala |F |54.8
104 |Nicholas Walters |D |54.7
105 |Garrett Hooey |F |54.6
106 |Joni Nikko |F |54.6
107 |Steven Hodges |F |54.6
108 |Austin Farley |F |54.5
109 |Otso Rantakari |D |54.5
110 |Luke Mercer |D |54.4
111 |Brock McGinn |F |54.4
112 |Christophe Lalancette |F |54.4
113 |Zachery Mitchell |F |54.4
114 |Charles Hudon |F |54.3
115 |Tyrel Seaman |F |54.3
116 |Mikael Wikstrand |D |54.3
117 |Alessio Bertaggia |F |54.2
118 |Alex Rauter |F |54.2
119 |Miro Aaltonen |F |54.2
120 |Jacob Trouba |D |54.1
| Round 5 | |
121 |Ahti Oksanen |D |54.1
122 |Cristoval Nieves |F |54.1
123 |Anton Slepyshev |F |54.1
124 |Samu Markkula |F |54.1
125 |Mikko Lehtonen 94 |D |54.1
126 |Jaynen Rissling |D |54.0
127 |Riley Barber |F |54.0
128 |Justin Auger |F |53.9
129 |Ludvik Bystrom |D |53.9
130 |Alex Iafallo |F |53.8
131 |Jiri Sekac |F |53.8
132 |Philip Tot |F |53.6
133 |Nicholas Bligh |F |53.6
134 |Francis Beauvillier |F |53.6
135 |Pascal Zerressen |D |53.6
136 |Patrik Machac |F |53.5
137 |Christian Djoos |D |53.5
138 |Brady Skjei |D |53.5
139 |Dakota Mermis |D |53.4
140 |Christoph Bertschy |F |53.3
141 |Rasmus Kulmala |F |53.3
142 |Richard Nejezchleb |F |53.3
143 |Theodor Blueger |F |53.3
144 |Roman Will |G |53.2
145 |Nicolas Kerdiles |F |53.2
146 |Brian Cooper |D |53.1
147 |Linus Hultstrom |D |53.0
148 |Tomas Nosek |F |53.0
149 |Thomas DiPauli |F |53.0
150 |Jeremy Boyce |F |53.0
| Round 6 | |
151 |Daulton Siwak |F |52.9
152 |Marcus McIvor |D |52.8
153 |Frank Vatrano |F |52.8
154 |Wade Murphy |F |52.8
155 |Hampus Lindholm |D |52.8
156 |Julian Schmutz |F |52.8
157 |Collin Olson |G |52.6
158 |Gustav Rydahl |F |52.6
159 |Mikko Vainonen |D |52.6
160 |Miles Koules |F |52.5
161 |Stanislav Gareev |D |52.5
162 |Daniel Zaar |F |52.5
163 |Egor Malenkikh |D |52.5
164 |Emil Lundberg |F |52.5
165 |Brendan Collier |F |52.5
166 |Derrick Pouliot |D |52.5
167 |Stephon Williams |G |52.4
168 |Damir Zhafyarov| F |52.4
169 |Thomas Wilson |F |52.4
170 |Simon Fernholm |D |52.4
171 |Alex Lyon |G |52.4
172 |Brady Gaudet |D |52.3
173 |Sandro Zangger |F |52.3
174 |Ludvig Nilsson |F |52.3
175 |Dean Kukan |D |52.3
176 |Erik Nystrom |F |52.3
177 |Linus Ullmark |G |52.2
178 |Markus Hannikainen |F |52.2
179 |Filip Sandberg |F |52.2
180 |Reece Willcox |D |52.2
| Round 7 | |
181 |Jake Bischoff |D |52.2
182 |Patrik Bartosak |G |52.1
183 |Marcus Bohman |D |52.1
184 |Mattias Janmark-nylen |F |52.1
185 |Justin Kea |F |52.1
186 |Dalton Sward |F |52.1
187 |Cody Payne |F |52.0
188 |Erik Karlsson 94 |F |52.0
189 |Joel Vermin |F |52.0
190 |Mitchell Moroz |F |52.0
191 |Josh Anderson |F |51.9
192 |Quentin Shore |F |51.9
193 |Dario Simion |F |51.9
194 |Oscar Dansk |G |51.8
195 |Tomas Hyka |F |51.8
196 |Cameron Darcy |F |51.8
197 |Dominik Volek |F |51.8
198 |David Karlsson |F |51.7
199 |Joel Wigle |F |51.6
200 |Austin Wuthrich |F |51.5
201 |Nikita Lisov |D |51.5
202 |Denis Kamaev |F |51.5
203 |Jay Dickman |F |51.5
204 |Chris Calnan |F |51.4
205 |Lukas Sutter |F |51.4
206 |Alexei Filippov |F |51.4
207 |Chase Hatcher |F |51.4
208 |Matthew Deblouw |F |51.4
209 |Dillon Fournier |D |51.4
210 |Sven Andrighetto |F |51.4
These rankings and ratings are not based on the player’s skillset in terms of skating ability, speed, checking or personality, but are based on the outcome of those abilities in terms of goals, assists, PIM and near-to-all other numerical information about the player’s performance, position, body (age, height, weight), and team (how team performed, which league player is from). These variables are then put together in an algorithm which compares the prospect’s performance to a collection of NHL players who have played in that specific league earlier in their career. Each current NHL player has a value already assigned to them based on their performance in the NHL (which is an entirely different discussion but is based on advanced NHL statistics for those who are familiar with the subject). Outliers are removed before the data is run through a program similar to regression which then outputs a “max potential rating†to each prospect. Note that there are some prospects which play in leagues/schools (Mark Jankowski for example) that cannot be part of the system because there is not enough data to compare them to. However, for about 95% of the prospects out there, I was able to assign a value to them.
I know this list will be considered a joke and completely far fetched for everyone here, but again, these rankings/ratings are not meant to be a definitive number to determine where a player should be drafted. The intent is to corroborate existing empirical evidence scouts/others have of players with a basis of historical statistical comparison. I’ve been working on variations of this project for over the past five years and finally believe there is enough data to make initial estimates for these players/prospects. However, this is a fluid process and as more data becomes available (as new NHL players emerge every year) the numbers will be subject to change over time.
As a reference here are what I have a sample of current NHL players rated as:
Sidney Crosby:| 80
Bobby Ryan:| 69
Teemu Selanne:| 64
Niklas Hagman:| 59
Andrew Cogliano:| 55
||
Lubomir Visnovsky:| 62
Toni Lydman:| 58
Cam Fowler:| 53
||
Jonas Hiller:| 61
Dan Ellis:| 54
Again, I will hopefully get a new topic out there soon about what went into making those ratings above. As a guiding point a score of 62 or above is first line/pair talent, 58-62 is second line/pair talent, 54-58 is third line/pair talent, and below are fringe/fourth line players.
Notable Players who did not have enough supporting data to be rated and are not on this list:
Thomas Spelling, Mark Jankowski, Mackenzie Maceachern, Drake Caggiula, Devin Shore, Daniel O'Regan, Brian Hart, Ben Hutton, James Haas, Mackenzie Weegar, Patrik Luza, Travis Jeke
Notable Players who did not have a high enough rating to warrant being listed
Martin Frk, Slater Koekkoek, Adam Pelech, Matej Beran, Zachary Stepan, Valeri Vasiliev, Alex Gudbranson
1 |Mikhail Grigorenko |F |68.7
2 |Esa Lindell |D |66.4
3 |Nail Yakupov |F |66.4
4 |Alex Galchenyuk |F |65.9
5 |Joonas Korpisalo |G |64.3
6 |Kevin Roy |F |63.2
7 |Tim Bozon |F |63.1
8 |Ryan Murray |D |63.0
9 |Jordan Schmaltz |D |62.6
10 |Olli Maatta |D |62.2
11 |Phillip Giuseppe |F |62.1
12 |Cody Ceci |D |62.0
13 |Ryan Culkin |D |61.8
14 |Niklas Treutle |G |61.7
15 |Shayne Gostisbehere |D |61.5
16 |Coda Gordon |F |61.2
17 |Sean Maguire |G |60.6
18 |Radek Faksa |F |59.5
19 |Connor Brown |F |59.5
20 |Morgan Rielly |D |59.5
21 |Zemgus Girgensons |F |59.5
22 |Jesse Graham |D |59.3
23 |Teuvo Teravainen |F |59.2
24 |Brendan Leipsic |F |59.2
25 |Tomas Hertl |F |59.1
26 |Brendan Gaunce |F |59.1
27 |Justin Hache |D |58.8
28 |Travis Brown |D |58.7
29 |Alex Kile |F |58.3
30 |Mathew Dumba |D |58.2
| Round 2 | |
31 |Mathias Niederberger |G |57.9
32 |Ville Pokka |D |57.8
33 |Jarrod Maidens |F |57.8
34 |Etienne Marcoux |G |57.6
35 |Nick Ebert |D |57.5
36 |Troy Bourke |F |57.4
37 |Andrei Vasilevski |G |57.4
38 |Henrik Samuelsson |F |57.3
39 |Tanner Pearson |F |57.3
40 |Daniil Zharkov |F |57.3
41 |Damon Severson |D |57.2
42 |Dylan Blujus |D |57.2
43 |Robert Baillargeon |F |57.1
44 |Michael Houser |G |57.1
45 |Henri Ikonen |F |57.0
46 |Logan Nelson |F |57.0
47 |Kristoff Kontos |F |57.0
48 |Chris Marchese |F |57.0
49 |Mike Winther |F |56.9
50 |Jujhar Khaira |F |56.9
51 |Scott Laughton |F |56.8
52 |Matia Marcantuoni |F |56.7
53 |Anton Zlobin |F |56.7
54 |Filip Forsberg |F |56.6
55 |Griffin Reinhart |D |56.6
56 |Samuel Kurker |F |56.5
57 |Mathew Campagna |F |56.5
58 |Zakhar Arzamastsev |D |56.5
59 |Justin Kloos |F |56.4
60 |Tanner Richard |F |56.4
| Round 3 | |
61 |Francois Brassard |G |56.3
62 |Brady Vail |F |56.2
63 |Andreas Athanasiou |F |56.2
64 |Scott Kosmachuk |F |56.2
65 |Artur Gavrus |F |56.2
66 |Luke Cairns |F |56.1
67 |Grant Besse |F |56.1
68 |Morgan Zulinick |F |56.0
69 |Malcolm Subban |G |56.0
70 |Taylor Leier |F |55.9
71 |Sebastian Collberg |F |55.8
72 |Nathan Walker |F |55.8
73 |Ben Johnson |F |55.8
74 |Calle Andersson |D |55.8
75 |Nikita Gusev |F |55.7
76 |Brandon Whitney |G |55.7
77 |Alex Kerfoot |F |55.7
78 |Pontus Aberg |F |55.7
79 |Jon Gillies |G |55.7
80 |Chandler Stephenson |F |55.6
81 |Colton Sissons |F |55.6
82 |Matthew Finn |D |55.5
83 |Gemel Smith |F |55.4
84 |Dane Fox |F |55.4
85 |Ryan Olsen |F |55.4
86 |Michael Matheson |D |55.3
87 |Brady Brassart |F |55.3
88 |Matej Machovsky |G |55.2
89 |Vincent Hinostroza |F |55.2
90 |Matthew Morris |G |55.1
| Round 4 | |
91 |Chris Tierney |F |55.1
92 |Michael Clarke |F |55.1
93 |Topi Nattinen |F |55.1
94 |Peter Quenneville |F |55.1
95 |Nikolai Prokhorkin |F |55.0
96 |Jake McCabe |D |54.9
97 |Niklas Tikkinen |D |54.9
98 |Malte Stromwall |F |54.9
99 |Christopher Clapperton |F |54.9
100 |Robert Leino |F |54.9
101 |Matthew Benning |D |54.9
102 |AJ Michaelson |F |54.8
103 |Henrik Haapala |F |54.8
104 |Nicholas Walters |D |54.7
105 |Garrett Hooey |F |54.6
106 |Joni Nikko |F |54.6
107 |Steven Hodges |F |54.6
108 |Austin Farley |F |54.5
109 |Otso Rantakari |D |54.5
110 |Luke Mercer |D |54.4
111 |Brock McGinn |F |54.4
112 |Christophe Lalancette |F |54.4
113 |Zachery Mitchell |F |54.4
114 |Charles Hudon |F |54.3
115 |Tyrel Seaman |F |54.3
116 |Mikael Wikstrand |D |54.3
117 |Alessio Bertaggia |F |54.2
118 |Alex Rauter |F |54.2
119 |Miro Aaltonen |F |54.2
120 |Jacob Trouba |D |54.1
| Round 5 | |
121 |Ahti Oksanen |D |54.1
122 |Cristoval Nieves |F |54.1
123 |Anton Slepyshev |F |54.1
124 |Samu Markkula |F |54.1
125 |Mikko Lehtonen 94 |D |54.1
126 |Jaynen Rissling |D |54.0
127 |Riley Barber |F |54.0
128 |Justin Auger |F |53.9
129 |Ludvik Bystrom |D |53.9
130 |Alex Iafallo |F |53.8
131 |Jiri Sekac |F |53.8
132 |Philip Tot |F |53.6
133 |Nicholas Bligh |F |53.6
134 |Francis Beauvillier |F |53.6
135 |Pascal Zerressen |D |53.6
136 |Patrik Machac |F |53.5
137 |Christian Djoos |D |53.5
138 |Brady Skjei |D |53.5
139 |Dakota Mermis |D |53.4
140 |Christoph Bertschy |F |53.3
141 |Rasmus Kulmala |F |53.3
142 |Richard Nejezchleb |F |53.3
143 |Theodor Blueger |F |53.3
144 |Roman Will |G |53.2
145 |Nicolas Kerdiles |F |53.2
146 |Brian Cooper |D |53.1
147 |Linus Hultstrom |D |53.0
148 |Tomas Nosek |F |53.0
149 |Thomas DiPauli |F |53.0
150 |Jeremy Boyce |F |53.0
| Round 6 | |
151 |Daulton Siwak |F |52.9
152 |Marcus McIvor |D |52.8
153 |Frank Vatrano |F |52.8
154 |Wade Murphy |F |52.8
155 |Hampus Lindholm |D |52.8
156 |Julian Schmutz |F |52.8
157 |Collin Olson |G |52.6
158 |Gustav Rydahl |F |52.6
159 |Mikko Vainonen |D |52.6
160 |Miles Koules |F |52.5
161 |Stanislav Gareev |D |52.5
162 |Daniel Zaar |F |52.5
163 |Egor Malenkikh |D |52.5
164 |Emil Lundberg |F |52.5
165 |Brendan Collier |F |52.5
166 |Derrick Pouliot |D |52.5
167 |Stephon Williams |G |52.4
168 |Damir Zhafyarov| F |52.4
169 |Thomas Wilson |F |52.4
170 |Simon Fernholm |D |52.4
171 |Alex Lyon |G |52.4
172 |Brady Gaudet |D |52.3
173 |Sandro Zangger |F |52.3
174 |Ludvig Nilsson |F |52.3
175 |Dean Kukan |D |52.3
176 |Erik Nystrom |F |52.3
177 |Linus Ullmark |G |52.2
178 |Markus Hannikainen |F |52.2
179 |Filip Sandberg |F |52.2
180 |Reece Willcox |D |52.2
| Round 7 | |
181 |Jake Bischoff |D |52.2
182 |Patrik Bartosak |G |52.1
183 |Marcus Bohman |D |52.1
184 |Mattias Janmark-nylen |F |52.1
185 |Justin Kea |F |52.1
186 |Dalton Sward |F |52.1
187 |Cody Payne |F |52.0
188 |Erik Karlsson 94 |F |52.0
189 |Joel Vermin |F |52.0
190 |Mitchell Moroz |F |52.0
191 |Josh Anderson |F |51.9
192 |Quentin Shore |F |51.9
193 |Dario Simion |F |51.9
194 |Oscar Dansk |G |51.8
195 |Tomas Hyka |F |51.8
196 |Cameron Darcy |F |51.8
197 |Dominik Volek |F |51.8
198 |David Karlsson |F |51.7
199 |Joel Wigle |F |51.6
200 |Austin Wuthrich |F |51.5
201 |Nikita Lisov |D |51.5
202 |Denis Kamaev |F |51.5
203 |Jay Dickman |F |51.5
204 |Chris Calnan |F |51.4
205 |Lukas Sutter |F |51.4
206 |Alexei Filippov |F |51.4
207 |Chase Hatcher |F |51.4
208 |Matthew Deblouw |F |51.4
209 |Dillon Fournier |D |51.4
210 |Sven Andrighetto |F |51.4