Grade prospects by probability of making the NHL

[Bure]

Probably because the larger ice surface of the KHL is more suited to his game, whereas the physical element of the AHL is what is causing his struggles.

I don't really buy that because usually only the top AHL scorers contribute in the KHL.

Maybe you are right though, I just see it as if you're going to stick in the KHL you can at least do decent in the American league based off skill alone. But then again it's just my opinion.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

I don't really buy that because usually only the top AHL scorers contribute in the KHL.

Maybe you are right though, I just see it as if you're going to stick in the KHL you can at least do decent in the American league based off skill alone. But then again it's just my opinion.

I think that's because typically the AHL top scorers are the only ones with any modicum of skill that aren't NHL prospects on ELCs. Most of the career AHLers are plugs.

 

[Bure]

I think that's because typically the AHL top scorers are the only ones with any modicum of skill that aren't NHL prospects on ELCs. Most of the career AHLers are plugs.

Fair enough. Anyway Galiev still has a chance, it's only his first year pro after all.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

Fair enough. Anyway Galiev still has a chance, it's only his first year pro after all.

Yeah, I think it's way too early to write him off. There are plenty of NHLers that have spent time developing in the ECHL--Peverley, Ryder, Streit, Fedotenko, and Conacher among them.

 

[Brad Tolliver]

Purely staturbating, but even Kugryshev had better numbers in the AHL in his first pro season. That's much more of a comparable than NHLers who started in the ECHL.

 

[RandyHolt]

What % of all picks league get 10 games? I think we get the same.

Great post marshall

 

[usiel]

Purely staturbating, but even Kugryshev had better numbers in the AHL in his first pro season. That's much more of a comparable than NHLers who started in the ECHL.

The thing that sticks out for me prospect wise (multitude of puns aside)... Galiev is/has some physical development as a need for the pro level. Naturally it is up to him to to bring it as far as the off ice and on ice competete level. A little early to call it at this point but understand the bullishness.

 

[Hivemind]

Yeah, I think it's way too early to write him off. There are plenty of NHLers that have spent time developing in the ECHL--Peverley, Ryder, Streit, Fedotenko, and Conacher among them.

Peverley - 11 games in ECHL. Still put up 46 points in 65 AHL games that season

Ryder - 20 games in ECHL. 28 points in 50 AHL games that season.

Streit - 14 games in ECHL. 15 points from the blueliner in 43 games in the AHL that season.

Fedotenko - 8 games in the ECHL. 50 points in 67 AHL games that season.

Conacher - Only 3 games in the ECHL, coming on an ATO after his college season ended. Scored 7 points in those 3 games. Had 6 points in 7 AHL games that season (also on ATOs). Followed that up by scoring 114 points in 75 games and named the AHL MVP the next season.

Galiev - 24 games in the ECHL so far. Only 1 point in 17 AHL games.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

Peverley - 11 games in ECHL. Still put up 46 points in 65 AHL games that season

Ryder - 20 games in ECHL. 28 points in 50 AHL games that season.

Streit - 14 games in ECHL. 15 points from the blueliner in 43 games in the AHL that season.

Fedotenko - 8 games in the ECHL. 50 points in 67 AHL games that season.

Conacher - Only 3 games in the ECHL, coming on an ATO after his college season ended. Scored 7 points in those 3 games. Had 6 points in 7 AHL games that season (also on ATOs). Followed that up by scoring 114 points in 75 games and named the AHL MVP the next season.

Galiev - 24 games in the ECHL so far. Only 1 point in 17 AHL games.

So?

What kind of role is Galiev getting in Hershey? Is he getting any ice time when he's up?

He might not make it. He might not be able to adjust to the physicality of the pro game. But writing him off because of his stats in his half a pro season is beyond stupid.

And Peverely spent 69 games in the ECHL his first season. Those 11 games were in his second.

 

[Hivemind]

So?

What kind of role is Galiev getting in Hershey? Is he getting any ice time when he's up?

He might not make it. He might not be able to adjust to the physicality of the pro game. But writing him off because of his stats in his half a pro season is beyond stupid.

And Peverely spent 69 games in the ECHL his first season. Those 11 games were in his second.

Good catch on Peverley. But he's still the exception to the rule. Of the few skilled, scoring forwards who panned out at the NHL level and played in the ECHL, they generally played fewer ECHL games than Galiev already has and managed to produce in the AHL in the same season.

There's a reason Galiev didn't get great ice time in Herhsey, because (especially during his first stint) he did little to show that he deserved it. I'm not saying that Galiev is definitely a bust. I'm saying that history says his odds aren't very good.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

Good catch on Peverley. But he's still the exception to the rule. Of the few skilled, scoring forwards who panned out at the NHL level and played in the ECHL, they generally played fewer ECHL games than Galiev already has and managed to produce in the AHL in the same season.

There's a reason Galiev didn't get great ice time in Herhsey, because (especially during his first stint) he did little to show that he deserved it. I'm not saying that Galiev is definitely a bust. I'm saying that history says his odds aren't very good.

History says the odds of any drafted player making it aren't good. Chris Bourque was an elite AHL producer. Didn't do much for his NHL chances.

I'm genuinely curious, when Galiev has been up, has he been getting any top-6 or PP time? Or has it just been in a 4th line role?

 

[Hivemind]

A = >80% probability
B = 60-80%
C = 40-60%
D = 20-40%
E = <20%

Anderson, Brandon - E
Barber, Riley - C
Boyd, Travis - E
Burke, Greg - E
Carman, Mike - E
Carrick, Connor - C
DiPauli, Thomas - D
Djoos, Christian - D
Flemming, Brett - D
Forsberg, Filip - A
Galiev, Stanislav - D
Grubauer, Philipp - A
Haar, Garrett - D
Herbert, Caleb - D
Holtby, Braden - A
Kostenko, Sergey - E
Koudys, Patrick - E
Kuznetsov, Evgeny - A
Marshall, Kevin* - D
McNeill, Patrick - E
Mitchell, Garrett - C
Orlov, Dmitry - A
Paquette, Danick - E
Rissling, Jaynen - D
Schilling, Cameron - B
Sjogren, Mattias - D
Soberg, Steffen - C
Stefishen, Taylor - E
Stephenson, Chandler - C
Stevenson, Dustin - E
Stoa, Ryan* - D
Wellman, Casey - D
Wey, Patrick - B
Wilson, Tom - A
Wuthrich, Austin - E

A: 6
B: 2
C: 5
D: 11
E: 11

*Already played NHL games, rated on likelihood of sticking to an NHL roster in the future

 

[BiPolar Caps]

Probably because the larger ice surface of the KHL is more suited to his game, whereas the physical element of the AHL is what is causing his struggles.

This is the same assessment I'm making of Marcus Johansson, just change KHL for SEL. MAJO only played two games at the AHL I believe and then came right to Washington, never had the opportunity to adjust his "game" to the North American rinks. Galiev at least has playing time in the QMJHL with the St. Johns Icedogs for a couple of seasons.

Being at the VC for both the Penguins and Leafs games, the difference of play in those two games for MAJO was night and day and its because the Leafs allowed MAJO to have space whereas the Penguins didn't. If MAJO can have space he's quite impressive and unfortunately that was the environment that he was scouted in in the SEL where the rinks are larger and there's more space to display his skating and stick handling skills. His game disappears and so does he in a more physical and tighter checking environment such as the NHL and definitely come the playoffs. Flash was the same way as well, you get physical or hit him one or two times in a game he was toast for the rest of the game.

 

[Hivemind]

History says the odds of any drafted player making it aren't good. Chris Bourque was an elite AHL producer. Didn't do much for his NHL chances.

I'm genuinely curious, when Galiev has been up, has he been getting any top-6 or PP time? Or has it just been in a 4th line role?

During his initial stint, it was mostly 4th line time. During his second stint, he was initially given a chance on the 2nd line, but couldn't stick there.

 

[Chimaera]

I would agree with most of that summary.

Galiev's a player that's a dime a dozen, and no one will know about him without a few seasons of work.

They could use a defensive prospect, but they're still in the tank for 3 young kids back there. None have really hit their "NHL defensemen prime". While I do think that they could stand to add a few defensive prospects, the trouble is they're going to take a few seasons to matriculate up to the NHL. That doesn't mean they shouldn't do it, but the trouble is, they've got a decent set of road blocks in the NHL to playing time. Orlov should also be considered a prospect at this point, though he's a NHL level player whenever he does finally get healthy again.

I'm interested in watching Wilson's development. He's hitting a stride in Juniors scoring, and his progression is certainly following a bit of a Lucic path. Lot to live up to, but if he can skate well enough, he could be a very good player in a short time span.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

Did I just read somewhere here on one of the threads that Forsberg plans on staying in Sweden another year to continue to play in the SEL, is this true?

That would be horrible for this kids development IMHO. He needs to come to NA next season and at the very least and probably for the best, play at Hershey for a while.

I'm already NA bias when it comes to the draft, this would just push me further in to Don Cherryland.

 

[Langway]

They'd be well served to dip into the NCAA FA pool again for a defenseman. DeKeyser, dev. camp invitee Schmidt and/or Sustr would be worthwhile investments.

A: Forsberg, Holtby, Kuznetsov, Orlov, Wilson
C: Barber, Grubauer, Schilling, Wey
D: DiPauli, Djoos, Galiev, Herbert, Mitchell, Rissling, Soberg, Stephenson
E: Everyone else

The odds of making it aren't that great. It's also hard to be bullish on players that are neither overly talented/toolsy nor project all that well as bottom of the lineup role players. Not sure if it's good or bad that so many listed are 2012 picks. Nine picks in the previous two drafts will do that.

 

[fedfed]

I don'y think he can do it unless Caps allow it.

 

[Brad Tolliver]

This is the same assessment I'm making of Marcus Johansson, just change KHL for SEL. MAJO only played two games at the AHL I believe and then came right to Washington, never had the opportunity to adjust his "game" to the North American rinks. Galiev at least has playing time in the QMJHL with the St. Johns Icedogs for a couple of seasons.

Being at the VC for both the Penguins and Leafs games, the difference of play in those two games for MAJO was night and day and its because the Leafs allowed MAJO to have space whereas the Penguins didn't. If MAJO can have space he's quite impressive and unfortunately that was the environment that he was scouted in in the SEL where the rinks are larger and there's more space to display his skating and stick handling skills. His game disappears and so does he in a more physical and tighter checking environment such as the NHL and definitely come the playoffs. Flash was the same way as well, you get physical or hit him one or two times in a game he was toast for the rest of the game.

Johansson's 2 AHL games were from a midseason conditioning stint following an injury.

Speaking of Flash, even he put up 19 points in 53 games in Tim Army's prevent offense in the AHL. If anybody needed physical development fresh out of juniors, it was Flash and even that didn't stop him from putting up respectable numbers. There is likely a far deeper reason than just physical development keeping Galiev out of Hershey. But of course now the stats don't matter because it doesn't fit someone's agenda.

 

[Ajax1995]

Please grade Caps prospects by probability of making the NHL

Define 'making the NHL' please.

 

[fedfed]

Define 'making the NHL' please.

Consistently stayng on 23-man list of an NHL team.

 

[Ajax1995]

Consistently stayng on 23-man list of an NHL team.

For how long? Basically how many NHL games does a guy need to play to have 'made it' in your opinion?

 

[Atlas]

How many whiskers before you call it a beard?

 

[Halpysback*]

After research, I believe you aren't Brad...

Nice try Brad. Reeaaaaaaaaaaal nice try

 

[PuckBuddy]

This might be a reasonable way to anchor the discussion:

http://proicehockey.about.com/od/prospects/f/draft_success.htm