Hockey Outsider
Registered User
- Jan 16, 2005
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In hockey, wins are the only thing that matter. However, it doesn’t follow that the goalie with the most wins was the best or most valuable netminder. It’s unfair and illogical to compare the W/L/T record of a goalie on an expansion team, to that of a goalie on a Stanley Cup contender.
I created a statistic called “Wins Added”. It looks at how many games a goalie won, in excess of the number of games they were expected to win on the strength of their team’s offense and defense. I’ll save the details for the next post, and I’ll show the results here.
Note: due to data limitations these numbers are from 1987-88 to 2006-07 only. Also note that when I say "wins", I'm referring to wins plus half of ties, overtime losses, and shootout losses.
Career wins added - 1988 to present
Goalie|Games|Wins Added
Patrick Roy | 934 | +67
Dominik Hasek | 694 | +63
Martin Brodeur | 891 | +53
Roberto Luongo | 417 | +33
Curtis Joseph | 913 | +32
Ed Belfour | 963 | +27
Daren Puppa | 429 | +20
Manny Legace | 242 | +19
Marty Turco | 320 | +19
Jean-Sebastien Giguere | 353 | +18
A few quick comments:
- Roy is, if anything, underrated by stats junkies. His 90.8% save percentage from 1988-1992, compared to the league average of 88.3% during that span, is nearly Hasek-like. Yes, Hasek is the better goalie, but don’t be fooled by Roy’s save percentage – it only looks low because of the era.
- I’m surprised Belfour wasn’t in 4th place, but his poor showing in 2006, and his years of floating in San Jose and late in his Chicago tenure, hurt his career (cumulative) ranking.
- Puppa is here on the strength of two seasons: 1990 and 1996. Based on my work I estimate that the ’90 Sabres would have been 8th in conference without Puppa’ goaltending (they finished 2nd with a division title); the ’96 Lightning squeaked into the playoffs thanks to Puppa, even though an average goalie would have led them to 11th place.
Peak wins added (best five years)
Goalie|Wins Added
Dominik Hasek | +7.6
Roberto Luongo | +6.9
Patrick Roy | +6.7
Martin Brodeur | +5.4
Tom Barrasso | +5.4
Mike Vernon | +5.2
Curtis Joseph | +5.1
Daren Puppa | +4.8
Ed Belfour | +4.8
JS Giguere | +4.2
- Luongo helped the Canucks earn the division title in 2007; had they replaced him with an average goalie, Vancouver would have been 23rd in the league. Even in 2006 (when he took a ridiculous amount of flak solely because he played on a terrible team), he brought the Panthers to within 7 points of a playoff spot. Replacing him with an average goalie, Florida would have 27th in the league.
- Brodeur was an average regular season goalie from 1999-2004. (He was excellent before and after that six-year stretch, and was always great in the playoffs). He won 270 games during that span, but a statistically average goalie that had his ice time on those excellent New Jersey teams, was expected to win 268.9 games. Again, Brodeur was great during the other two-thirds of his career, but people became blinded by his wins during that period without considering the context.
An obvious limitation to this formula is that this is for the regular season only. I was able to break down the data to account for mid-season trades, but I wasn't able to separate team-level data between starters and backups. (So Hasek's wins added are understated if he faced more shots per game than his backups).
However, an advantage over stats like save percentage and GAA is that clutch play should (theoretically) be reflected in the win/loss totals, so timing matters. Also, puckhandling should also (theoretically) be reflected in the win/loss totals so a major strength of excellent puckhandling goalies, is not ignored.
Generally, goalies add fewer wins to their teams than most people probably expect. From 1988 onwards, Patrick Roy won 566 games, but a statistically average goalie playing for his Canadiens and Avs would have been expected to win 502 games. Only 86 goalies have been able to add 5 wins (10 points) to their teams in a single season.
I created a statistic called “Wins Added”. It looks at how many games a goalie won, in excess of the number of games they were expected to win on the strength of their team’s offense and defense. I’ll save the details for the next post, and I’ll show the results here.
Note: due to data limitations these numbers are from 1987-88 to 2006-07 only. Also note that when I say "wins", I'm referring to wins plus half of ties, overtime losses, and shootout losses.
Career wins added - 1988 to present
Patrick Roy | 934 | +67
Dominik Hasek | 694 | +63
Martin Brodeur | 891 | +53
Roberto Luongo | 417 | +33
Curtis Joseph | 913 | +32
Ed Belfour | 963 | +27
Daren Puppa | 429 | +20
Manny Legace | 242 | +19
Marty Turco | 320 | +19
Jean-Sebastien Giguere | 353 | +18
A few quick comments:
- Roy is, if anything, underrated by stats junkies. His 90.8% save percentage from 1988-1992, compared to the league average of 88.3% during that span, is nearly Hasek-like. Yes, Hasek is the better goalie, but don’t be fooled by Roy’s save percentage – it only looks low because of the era.
- I’m surprised Belfour wasn’t in 4th place, but his poor showing in 2006, and his years of floating in San Jose and late in his Chicago tenure, hurt his career (cumulative) ranking.
- Puppa is here on the strength of two seasons: 1990 and 1996. Based on my work I estimate that the ’90 Sabres would have been 8th in conference without Puppa’ goaltending (they finished 2nd with a division title); the ’96 Lightning squeaked into the playoffs thanks to Puppa, even though an average goalie would have led them to 11th place.
Peak wins added (best five years)
Dominik Hasek | +7.6
Roberto Luongo | +6.9
Patrick Roy | +6.7
Martin Brodeur | +5.4
Tom Barrasso | +5.4
Mike Vernon | +5.2
Curtis Joseph | +5.1
Daren Puppa | +4.8
Ed Belfour | +4.8
JS Giguere | +4.2
- Luongo helped the Canucks earn the division title in 2007; had they replaced him with an average goalie, Vancouver would have been 23rd in the league. Even in 2006 (when he took a ridiculous amount of flak solely because he played on a terrible team), he brought the Panthers to within 7 points of a playoff spot. Replacing him with an average goalie, Florida would have 27th in the league.
- Brodeur was an average regular season goalie from 1999-2004. (He was excellent before and after that six-year stretch, and was always great in the playoffs). He won 270 games during that span, but a statistically average goalie that had his ice time on those excellent New Jersey teams, was expected to win 268.9 games. Again, Brodeur was great during the other two-thirds of his career, but people became blinded by his wins during that period without considering the context.
An obvious limitation to this formula is that this is for the regular season only. I was able to break down the data to account for mid-season trades, but I wasn't able to separate team-level data between starters and backups. (So Hasek's wins added are understated if he faced more shots per game than his backups).
However, an advantage over stats like save percentage and GAA is that clutch play should (theoretically) be reflected in the win/loss totals, so timing matters. Also, puckhandling should also (theoretically) be reflected in the win/loss totals so a major strength of excellent puckhandling goalies, is not ignored.
Generally, goalies add fewer wins to their teams than most people probably expect. From 1988 onwards, Patrick Roy won 566 games, but a statistically average goalie playing for his Canadiens and Avs would have been expected to win 502 games. Only 86 goalies have been able to add 5 wins (10 points) to their teams in a single season.
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