Speculation: Go All In or Be Patient?

[lakai17]

When the coaching staff, GM, + drafting and development are all issues it is hard to justify either (going all in or patience)

As long as they like to think they know what they're doing.

 

[Fourier]

I lean towards patience but for me what I want is for the team to be opportunistic. Don't just sit back and hope that the future is better. Beat the bushes but don't force a trade. They can't afford another version of the Hall for Larsson trade, and I say this even as someone who does not think this deal is all that bad. But you can only be on the losing side talent-wise so often. Chia made that move out of desperation, but if it was Jersey looking to move Larsson for help up front he may have been able to squeeze something more of real value out of that trade. In principle, Jersey should have been as desperate for change as the Oilers. Next time he needs to be the guy on the other side of the equation.

I'd love to get a Karlsson or OEL. But not at any cost. Signing a guy like Green to the right contract could be a better move than selling the farm and half the team's depth for one of those guys.

The cap situation is not as bad as it is often suggested. But Chia, or who ever has to mind their pennies. Handing out generous contracts to guys like Caggiula or Benning could really impact the team's options. The one guy who deserves a significant raise is Nurse. But even there I think a bridge worth considering.

 

[SK13]

If you can make the big D acquisition work, I think it's worth leaving some holes or being aggressive to make that happen.

Short of that, I think smart targeted acquistions and patience are in-order.

 

[Asiaoil]

I lean towards patience but for me what I want is for the team to be opportunistic. Don't just sit back and hope that the future is better. Beat the bushes but don't force a trade. They can't afford another version of the Hall for Larsson trade, and I say this even as someone who does not think this deal is all that bad. But you can only be on the losing side talent-wise so often. Chia made that move out of desperation, but if it was Jersey looking to move Larsson for help up front he may have been able to squeeze something more of real value out of that trade. In principle, Jersey should have been as desperate for change as the Oilers. Next time he needs to be the guy on the other side of the equation.

I'd love to get a Karlsson or OEL. But not at any cost. Signing a guy like Green to the right contract could be a better move than selling the farm and half the team's depth for one of those guys.

The cap situation is not as bad as it is often suggested. But Chia, or who ever has to mind their pennies. Handing out generous contracts to guys like Caggiula or Benning could really impact the team's options. The one guy who deserves a significant raise is Nurse. But even there I think a bridge worth considering.

Sure you absolutely have to been opportunistic and if BUF offered Risto for RNH or PHX offered OEL for some sort of appealing package like Klefbom, Lucic and Jones then you obviously jump on it. But it's got to be a clear win for us (we get the best player, fill a clear need, don't create a hole somewhere else). Otherwise we are in a build carefully mode with sustainability top of mind.

I accept the trades and UFA signings of years 1 and 2 because the ONLY objective in the first two years of McDavid's ELC was to have him agree to an extension. Nothing else mattered. Winning obviously helped - but - it was utterly and completely secondary. Drai's development made him a secondary priority after he emerged as an elite player in year 2. There was a real offer sheet threat that necessitated moving a piece like Ebs sooner rather than later.

So the minute McDavid and Drai signed we switched into patience mode as can see by Chia's actions since then (no big UFA signings, not spending available cap, no RFA signings like Maroon). Before that a bunch of desperation moves were required to improve the team as quickly as possible and give McDavid and Drai the confidence to sign long-term. It was all that really mattered and people (not you obviously) who ignore that are barking at passing cars.

 

[Soundwave]

Sure you absolutely have to been opportunistic and if BUF offered Risto for RNH or PHX offered OEL for some sort of appealing package like Klefbom, Lucic and Jones then you obviously jump on it. But it's got to be a clear win for us (we get the best player, fill a clear need, don't create a hole somewhere else). Otherwise we are in a build carefully mode with sustainability top of mind.

I accept the trades and UFA signings of years 1 and 2 because the ONLY objective in the first two years of McDavid's ELC was to have him agree to an extension. Nothing else mattered. Winning obviously helped - but - it was utterly and completely secondary. Drai's development made him a secondary priority after he emerged as an elite player in year 2. There was a real offer sheet threat that necessitated moving a piece like Ebs sooner rather than later.

So the minute McDavid and Drai signed we switched into patience mode as can see by Chia's actions since then (no big UFA signings, not spending available cap, no RFA signings like Maroon). Before that a bunch of desperation moves were required to improve the team as quickly as possible and give McDavid and Drai the confidence to sign long-term. It was all that really mattered and people (not you obviously) who ignore that are barking at passing cars.

This is just excusing poor management IMO. Why not just hire a GM that's going to make good moves from day 1? Wouldn't that be better?

If you lose a trade in year 2 it doesn't mean its better than losing a trade in year 4. Those things come back to haunt you either way.

Connor was always going to extend here too, virtually every star player does stay with their draft team once their ELC is up. Tavares has been on the Islanders for how many years now?

 

[Asiaoil]

woof woof

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

If you can make the big D acquisition work, I think it's worth leaving some holes or being aggressive to make that happen.

Short of that, I think smart targeted acquistions and patience are in-order.

I really don't think we have the assets to upgrade on defense without giving up something significant.

 

[shoop]

I really don't think we have the assets to upgrade on defense without giving up something significant.

Shouldn't the fact a CPA actually got into an NHL game last night lessen your bitterness just a touch. Assuming you are a CPA...

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Shouldn't the fact a CPA actually got into an NHL game last night lessen your bitterness just a touch. Assuming you are a CPA...

I am not.

I also haven't played hockey since I was 5.

Why is this relevant in any way?

 

[shoop]

I am not.

I also haven't played hockey since I was 5.

Why is this relevant in any way?

Just trying to point out the never ending bitterness gets tiring. Sorry for trying to lighten the mood. Keep up the anger!

 

[russ99]

I lean towards patience but for me what I want is for the team to be opportunistic. Don't just sit back and hope that the future is better. Beat the bushes but don't force a trade. They can't afford another version of the Hall for Larsson trade, and I say this even as someone who does not think this deal is all that bad. But you can only be on the losing side talent-wise so often. Chia made that move out of desperation, but if it was Jersey looking to move Larsson for help up front he may have been able to squeeze something more of real value out of that trade. In principle, Jersey should have been as desperate for change as the Oilers. Next time he needs to be the guy on the other side of the equation.

I'd love to get a Karlsson or OEL. But not at any cost. Signing a guy like Green to the right contract could be a better move than selling the farm and half the team's depth for one of those guys.

The cap situation is not as bad as it is often suggested. But Chia, or who ever has to mind their pennies. Handing out generous contracts to guys like Caggiula or Benning could really impact the team's options. The one guy who deserves a significant raise is Nurse. But even there I think a bridge worth considering.

Agree. We don’t have to go “all in” or stay super patient. I’d like to see a mix. We pretty much have to bridge Nurse at this point.

What’s vital to our future is to build a better system while also finding better players for the NHL roster next year.

I believe that the Oilers have decided on the RFAs and will make moves to clear some of them out at the draft, like Caggiula for a 4th, Strome for a 2nd/3rd and Benning and #10 for a better RHD and a high 2nd or low first. I hope Chia’s affinity for these players doesn’t get in the way of capitalizing on asset sales before they become overpayed and hard to move.

This way we don’t make the same mistake betting on the same young players who let us down last year, add more prospects to our system, improve the NHL roster and use cap space to bring in one good shooting winger for the top 6 and a few other NHL forwards, fixing the obvious gaps in talent, without making a dumb trade out of desperation.

 

[AM]

Seeing as the coaches and GM have one more year before the axe falls, im pretty sure they will be all in.

 

[Aceboogie]

The answer is, was always, and will always be- be patient. I can not think of an NHL team who ever had success going all in. Some NHL teams made big splashes near the end of a long, patient rebuild, but the big acquisition was cherry on top of the cake. Going all in is one of the most surefire way to implode a team and cause long term misery. Hell, we already saw the implications of going all in with the Hall and Reinhart trade. Its an unmitigated disaster to even try

Probably the only tema I can think that had success "going all in" is the Predators when they traded for Subban and than also for RyJo. But this was after years of building a very strong base with great drafting and patient development. They had the luxury of dealing Jones and found a team stupid enough to take on Weber and also give them Subban

Oiler fans have to chew on the bitter pill that this team aside from Mcdavid is abysmal still. When McDavid was off the ice, the Oilers were a 41% GF team, which is a nightmare. The team is a long way to go before they can even think about contending. The either need to get extremely lucky with health and shooting % (like last year), or they need to stand pat and be patient. Let JP develop, Let Bear/Jones/Nurse develop let Yamamoto develop, hell let Klefbom, LD and even RNH continue to develop. Find dumb teams (well dumber than Chiarelli so thatll be hard) and continue to trade with them. Acquire younger assets with upside, and hoard your own assets with upside

 

[Jamin]

I thought we went all in in 2015 with Chia.

Traded picks for d help, traded Hall for d help and signed expensive UFAs.

Unfortunately we all know what a bust that was. Would we have been better off staying patient? Would you trade last years playoff run for better future?

We either draft and develop and might miss playoffs for a few years but would hopefully be like Winnipeg or Tampa and have some good depth to go with our stars.

Do we risk having potentially 2 or 3 bad years with Mcdavid or try and be competitive next season.

Tough question because I dont have faith in our GM to win trades and signings; however, I also have no faith in our teams ability to draft and develop impact players that are not lottery picks

 

[Little Fury]

I thought we went all in in 2015 with Chia.

Traded picks for d help, traded Hall for d help and signed expensive UFAs.

Ding ding ding.

Unfortunately we all know what a bust that was. Would we have been better off staying patient? Would you trade last years playoff run for better future?

I think they could have basically just made a couple of minor changes in 15-16 and still made the playoffs last season TBH.

We either draft and develop and might miss playoffs for a few years but would hopefully be like Winnipeg or Tampa and have some good depth to go with our stars.

Do we risk having potentially 2 or 3 bad years with Mcdavid or try and be competitive next season.

The GM and coach under the gun pretty much guarantees they'll try and make a big splash.

Tough question because I dont have faith in our GM to win trades and signings; however, I also have no faith in our teams ability to draft and develop impact players that are not lottery picks

And they've managed to whiff on a couple of those as well.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

If you can make the big D acquisition work, I think it's worth leaving some holes or being aggressive to make that happen.

Short of that, I think smart targeted acquistions and patience are in-order.

My take as well. If you can land a Karlsson or OEL, you make it happen because players like that aren't always available. If not then invest heavily in the draft and college FA's and sign some bargain vets.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

I thought we went all in in 2015 with Chia.

Traded picks for d help, traded Hall for d help and signed expensive UFAs.

In essence we did to a degree and it turned our fortunes for a season for the first time in a decade. I suspect that we are a better team than we showed last season so there's a chance that we are at least that good again next season with some tinkering.

 

[McShogun99]

We were going to patient route with Tambo and Mac T, then we won the lottery and decided to rush everything for the sake of Mcdavid. If we stayed patient, signed the right veterans, let the kids develop properly we'd probably be looking at a future dynasty. Now we have less valuable assets and are back to where we were a few years ago. I believe in this group, especially if they can get good goaltending. I hope they stay patient and don't force a trade for a winger or a defenceman unless the trade is a clear win for us.

 

[Mr Positive]

we should try to make a winning team.

Karlsson being potentially available makes it a good time to go all-in anyway. There's no sense in being patient and then going all-in when no one is available

 

[Satire]

My instinct when I read this thread was to say we already did 2 years ago. I think we completed that loop last year when we signed Mcdavid and Drai to monster contracts.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

patience
which is why the Reinhart trade was so awful

desperately need to bolster our prospect depth

 

[nexttothemoon]

I think we can see that everything lined up perfectly in that once-in-12-years playoff season.

Almost nil injuries (top 11 scorers on the team missed a combined 13 games... which probably never happens again in 50 years).
Talbot playing like a Vezina candidate.
Many players having career years... like Maroon sniffing 30 goals, Klefbom hitting close to 40 pts, Letestu coming out of nowhere to be 1 off the team lead for PP goals.

Sekera/Larsson/Benning all playing solid 2-way hockey and stabilizing the blueline.

Even Lucic/Eberle/RNH who all had very average seasons managed to chip in 61 goals and 144 pts between them (and 50 of those pts came on the PP). I know we criticized that 666 line a lot that year as they tread water in a lot of games... but looking back... even having that line tread water was much better than the lack of overall secondary scoring we saw this past season.

The PK was nothing special that year... basically right near the league median but players like Pouliot, Lander and a healthy Sekera made a big difference in at least attaining an average penalty kill.

Almost everything that was good 2 years ago was worse last season.

Almost every player either regressed offensively and/or had worse +/- (team stat yes but still showed that collectively they were worse at evens).

Only McDavid, Nurse and RNH were clearly better this season... everyone else was either worse or at best no better then they were the year before.

Even Drai dropped 7 points and swapped from being +7 to -7.

When essentially 85% of the team was worse than the season before there's no way the team could have even been average.

They went from overachieving to underachieving and even if they end up somewhere in the middle going forward... that's still not good enough for playoffs.

Chia has a lot of work this summer to get them back to that 100+ pt level and I don't think there's anything HE can do to get 85% of the team to play better again... that's up to the players and coaches to achieve.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

The time to go all in has already passed. The Oilers have to be patient for now. Question is, how long can McDavid be patient?

 

[syz]

Chiarelli spent his trade chips and his money already. The days for quick fixes are over. The only way up now will be through drafting and development... which the organization has also been awful at for too many years.

 

[nexttothemoon]

I think they need to make that one "biggish" move for an offensive dman. They likely can't do much more than that because that offensive dman will use up any "spare" assets they have to trade away.

The wingers on this team will have to simply rebound and get better on this team and the younger wingers will have to improve organically.

A couple UFA winger signings in the group from Pirri/Hansen/Stafford/Winnik/Calvert/Brodziak/Grabner/Ryan is likely as good as it gets to improve the forward group.

Maybe someone like Bozak/Maroon/Filppula depending on their UFA cost.