Prospect Info: General Discussion of Prospects

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U18 play - Hemming gets the Finns a 1-0 lead from Kiviharju and Helenius on the powerplay.

 

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U-18 Sweden vs. Canada in their first game of the tournie about to faceoff.

 

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Canada-Sweden rosters- https://www.iihf.com/pdf/674/ihm674b04_54b_1_0

 

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This Latvian kid lighting up the Slovaks for Latvia's third goal is FIFTEEN. Holy crap do I feel old.

Olivers Murnieks at eliteprospects.com

Eliteprospects.com hockey player profile of Olivers Murnieks, 2008-07-31 Latvia. Most recently in the Latvia2 with HS Falcons. Complete player biography and stats.

www.eliteprospects.com

 

[Chainshot]

I keep waiting for Miro's son to call for the rock from the low post. Holy crap is he tall.

 

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Kicked Drummondville-Victoriaville on during the Amerks intermission, the Volts score to go up 1-0.

 

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Good night for the kids thus far - Amerks win on the backs of important guys, Komy with the GWG, Nadeau with a net front PPG for Jax... now on to watch Moose Jaw and Saskatoon.

 

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Justin Poirier setting a team record with scoring a goal in his 7th straight playoff game:

 

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[Beerz]

How the mighty have fallen

 

[Chainshot]

How the mighty have fallen

Maybe they need more USHL guys?

 

[Gabrielor]

His logic in that ranking is weird.

Levi had a 'disappointing' season?
The Sabres 'lack prospect depth'?

Hard disagree on both. Hard disagree.

I also disagree that Benson is still a prospect (I go by the old school hockey's future rules. 65 NHL games for a skater = graduated.)

Rousek is graduating due to aging out. 3 guys I don't expect them to sign have their rights expiring.

No rankings to the above, just tiering. Few organizations are as strong in the A tier as us. A-/B- has plenty of depth. C+/C has a few longshots with potential still too. We're about to add 8 more picks (if no trades) too.

15th ranked prospect pool is flat out wrong. We have depth. We have high end. We have multiple position options. You'd be hard pressed to find much better.

 

[Chainshot]

His logic in that ranking is weird.

Levi had a 'disappointing' season?
The Sabres 'lack prospect depth'?

Hard disagree on both. Hard disagree.

For a data guy, he's kinda terrible. I still remember him finding out that EP who he was scraping for data double dipped on NTDP games in the USHL.

 

[sabremike]

How the mighty have fallen

Was this guy huffing paint thinner when he put this together or is he really that dumb?

 

[Chainshot]

Was this guy huffing paint thinner when he put this together or is he really that dumb?

I’ve never understood his comparables. I appreciate that. He’s trying hard to come up with a purely data driven model, but it really needs some work. Savoie’s 19-year-old season is the best points per game in like the last 15 years in the WHL and he doesn’t get a lot of play in his model. I suppose I put a lot more stock in primary point production, especially even strength or five on five in the AHL, then he does or else he’d be coming out of his socks about Neuchev.

 

[sabremike]

I’ve never understood his comparables. I appreciate that. He’s trying hard to come up with a purely data driven model, but it really needs some work. Savoie’s 19-year-old season is the best points per game in like the last 15 years in the WHL and he doesn’t get a lot of play in his model. I suppose I put a lot more stock in primary point production, especially even strength or five on five in the AHL, then he does or else he’d be coming out of his socks about Neuchev.

The problem is that relying on just data can't work because it's a sport and not a math problem.

 

[Ace]

He said in the replies that Rosen grades out so poorly in his model that it drops them hard.

Think about that statement. Take it all in…every part of it.

And move on with your life never giving him the time of day again

 

[Chainshot]

He said in the replies that Rosen grades out so poorly in his model that it drops them hard.

Think about that statement. Take it all in…every part of it.

And move on with your life never giving him the time of day again

I'm not even sure what the hell he's putting in as data then.

 

[FromChaos22]

It's just points, the progression of points year over year, the league they're playing in, and their age. 19.2 yr old with same stats as a 19.8 yr old will grade higher. The progression is compared to other players with similar progression and how those prospects turned out in the past. If Rosen's progression looks like 30 other players that turned out to be bottom 6'ers, that's where his answers come from.

I don't think he believes everything is explained by the numbers, but that's what the past has shown.

 

[dire wolf]

That's probably the dumbest set of rankings I've ever seen. Not worthy of any further response.

 

[GOALOFSSON]

He said in the replies that Rosen grades out so poorly in his model that it drops them hard.

Think about that statement. Take it all in…every part of it

So like, it's worse than if he wasn't even in our system?

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

I'm not even sure what the hell he's putting in as data then.

I'm 90% sure it's PNHLe. By that system nothing about his ranks are all that provocative.

Quinn - 68
Savoie - 70
Kulich - 67
Ostlund - 56
Rosen - 49

Those make up the top 5. They have some modeling which predicts if a player will be a Regular or "Star". Sabres do a little better on top 5 stars vs regulars. Probably because Savoie has boom or bust characteristics according to models.

Notable depth players would be:

Komarov - 48
Benson - 47
Wahlberg - 33
Neuchev - 37

I don't think these models do a good job of predicting teenagers who are already playing in the NHL but aren't future MVP candidates. So Benson looks a lot worse than he would have otherwise. If he stuck in the WHL and had a ~90 PNHLe season they're right around the top 5.

 

[Chainshot]

I'm 90% sure it's PNHLe. By that system nothing about his ranks are all that provocative.

Quinn - 68
Savoie - 70
Kulich - 67
Ostlund - 56
Rosen - 49

Those make up the top 5. They have some modeling which predicts if a player will be a Regular or "Star". Sabres do a little better on top 5 stars vs regulars. Probably because Savoie has boom or bust characteristics according to models.

Notable depth players would be:

Komarov - 48
Benson - 47
Wahlberg - 33
Neuchev - 37

I don't think these models do a good job of predicting teenagers who are already playing in the NHL but aren't future MVP candidates. So Benson looks a lot worse than he would have otherwise. If he stuck in the WHL and had a ~90 PNHLe season they're right around the top 5.

My issue is with him running down Rosen's value for some reason. I've seen plenty of NHLe calculators out there and yet there is not a lot of explanation why his calculation drops Rosen to the point he mentions it being poor. As calculations go, the values do tend to drop as players move up in league, that's not an issue, but in at least the public versions I have found the value between Rosen's season and Kulich's season is a single point different.

I'm not all that concerned - it just is yet another question I have on that particular source.