GDT: GDT #11 Minnesota Wild vs New York Islanders | November 7th | 7:30 PM | F/4-2 L

[Doshell Propivo]

Could be worse. I became a Jets fan a year or two after they won the Super Bowl.

On the plus side, I have great memories of the dynasty teams.

These days we’re looking at mediocrity at best.

I’m not jumping off a cliff just yet. Still waiting for the 20 game reassessment. For now it looks like there are 6 teams ahead of us that are very likely to make the top 8. At best we’ll be fighting amongst about 4 teams for the last 2 spots. That’s being optimistic.

I expected the Rangers to struggle this season but they have certainly had a very strong start. It'll be tough for the Islanders to break into the top 3 of the division. Agree that WC1 or WC2 is what we'll be fighting for.

 

[Osakahaus]

My biggest fear is that Lou is going to trade that 1st round pick again. He's gonna trade it and we lose out on more young talent. This team REALLY could've benefitted from a Mintyukov or Jiricek or even Luke Hughes. They just badly need that kind of defenseman. Its cool that the isles have Dobson developing but their defense is missing that extra oomph.

Then its just with the management of the 4th line. If Matt Martin is going to play just 5 minutes a night, then bench him. Stop doing the blender. They have to either start putting Gauthier in, or don't do it at all. I thought Wahlstrom did better after the 1st but my goodness we need more from the 2nd line. Boston is next. They are always good against the islanders. They have to win this game if they want to get back on track.

 

[The Real JT]

My biggest fear is that Lou is going to trade that 1st round pick again. He's gonna trade it and we lose out on more young talent. This team REALLY could've benefitted from a Mintyukov or Jiricek or even Luke Hughes. They just badly need that kind of defenseman. Its cool that the isles have Dobson developing but their defense is missing that extra oomph.

Then its just with the management of the 4th line. If Matt Martin is going to play just 5 minutes a night, then bench him. Stop doing the blender. They have to either start putting Gauthier in, or don't do it at all. I thought Wahlstrom did better after the 1st but my goodness we need more from the 2nd line. Boston is next. They are always good against the islanders. They have to win this game if they want to get back on track.

Unless you have a team of proven winners, and I mean Cup winners, you need a steady infusion of young talent to balance your squad. We don’t have that and that’s why I believe it’s fools gold to think that this squad is a Cup contender.

Now to the prospects:

After what I would term a down season last year, I like what I see from Dobson thus far.

Holmstrom has shown a little progress this year but he remains a huge question mark in my mind. I still see him at best as a middle six or bottom six player long-term. That doesn’t move the needle much for me. Walstrom has shown even less though his ceiling is arguably higher.

We need younger and talented players. The correct reply would be “duh” so I’ll save some of you the trouble to respond.

 

[Osakahaus]

After what I would term a down season last year, I like what I see from Dobson thus far.

Holmstrom has shown a little progress this year but he remains a huge question mark in my mind. I still see him at best as a middle six or bottom six player long-term. That doesn’t move the needle much for me. Walstrom has shown even less though his ceiling is arguably higher.

Last night showed me that Holmstrom was doing much better. He's doing a great job on forechecking and its clear that he can be a valuable piece on the penalty kill. We need more of that. Play the youth over Martin if we're going to play him for just 5 minutes.

 

[PK Cronin]

Unless you have a team of proven winners, and I mean Cup winners, you need a steady infusion of young talent to balance your squad. We don’t have that and that’s why I believe it’s fools gold to think that this squad is a Cup contender.

Now to the prospects:

After what I would term a down season last year, I like what I see from Dobson thus far.

Holmstrom has shown a little progress this year but he remains a huge question mark in my mind. I still see him at best as a middle six or bottom six player long-term. That doesn’t move the needle much for me. Walstrom has shown even less though his ceiling is arguably higher.

We need younger and talented players. The correct reply would be “duh” so I’ll save some of you the trouble to respond.

I thought he was dreadful yesterday, even with the goal. He just doesn't skate well enough to be effective. He's slow going up and down the ice, plus he's not able to protect the puck well. I'm glad he scored and hope it gets him going but he's been such a non-factor and I'd rather someone who can skate if he's going to do nothing 99% of the time.

 

[PK Cronin]

Last night showed me that Holmstrom was doing much better. He's doing a great job on forechecking and its clear that he can be a valuable piece on the penalty kill. We need more of that. Play the youth over Martin if we're going to play him for just 5 minutes.

It seems like Holmstrom is finally figuring out that he can play in the NHL and is actually stronger than the competition. He threw that monster reverse hit last night that I don't think we've ever seen him even attempt to do before. On the PK he was a bull on the wall and ensuring the puck got out. He's got good speed and was driving to the net when given the opportunity. He's taken big strides in the early going this year, hopefully he continues to progress.

 

[leeroggy]

Here's a few things to note:

Barzal is now on pace for 306 SOGs and his career shooting percentage is about 11%, with not a lot of variation; a high of 12.9 and a low of 9.3. Last year it was 10.1. We all came into the season throwing fits about him shooting more. He's at 4.9 so far this year. He's not going to stay at 4.9 all season, so you can expect more goals as the season goes on.

Nelson 5G/2A on 40 SOGs
Palmieri 3G/5A on 24 SOGs
Engvall 0G/6A on 9 SOGs
It's not hard to see why that line cooled off
When Horvat is back I would put Holmstrom on the 2nd line to see if that changes the dynamic. It's pretty easy to see the other team is shading Nelson and Palmieri and not taking Engvall shooting seriously. Holmstrom is starting to get it on shooting and could very well be the better fit.

Our defense is not getting in trouble because of the system, it's getting in trouble when it tries to stickhandle too much deep in their own end. Just focus the next game while watching the play below the hashmarks. We used to wind the puck around a lot more with the outlet on the boards. A turnover on the high board is a lot less risky. Also, the league has caught on to how often we are trying to make a pressure-relieving pass to our stationary defender in the middle and are jumping the passing lane (and that was also a part of BT's system for breakouts; it's amazing to me that so many of you think our 'system' in the defensive zone is so much different now when it really is just the younger, less experienced defenders struggling to execute it). Notice we went from complaining under Barry about the unnecessary icings to these types of turnovers. We've turned over the defense corps with three younger players and they are in their adjustment/adaptation phase. It will kick in eventually. Lane was Barry's assistant for ELEVEN YEARS, he didn't come in with some entirely new approach. If you go back to last year's interviews after getting the head job, he basically noted the biggest change from BT was third man high getting more freedom to read the play. There's not a lot more than that.

I would say our forechecking is a mixed bag. The 4th line certainly has fallen off in that. Barry's forecheck was two men in the zone crisscrossing to take away the middle breakout and you almost never saw three people deep. It slowed the breakout but didn't really cause a lot of scoring chances. The forecheck now is more aggressive and it has led to both more chances and more odd-man rushes going the other way. That's what I mean about 3rd man high given more latitude.

In 2020-21, out shooting percentage was 9.4
2021-22 it was 9.7
22-23 it was 9.6
This year it is 8.6
Might not seem like a lot but we are on pace for 2520 SOGs, so 1% is a 25-6 goal difference
It's not the system, it's the execution right now.

Anyone who honestly thinks Lou is dumping Lane right now is kidding themselves. And those who pretend they know how the players are 'tuning in' or 'tuning out' Lane is just putting their own spin on it. In Barry's last year, we were not starting Holmstrom, Horvat, Engvall, Romanov, Aho, Fasching and Wahlstrom, and Dobson was on a short lease. We wanted to turn over the roster and we did, but that comes with growing pains.

And that's why I am staying positive and pushing back against the ridiculous amount of hate here. This same Minny team went into the Garden and pulled the big comeback. This league is highly competitive and you are just not going to have many easy games. Get into the playoffs, improve as the season goes on, and take your chances. Ask Bruin fans how important dominating the regular season was last year. This league is set up to reward WHO IS HOT at the END of the season, not the 1st month.

 

[MJF]

It seems like Holmstrom is finally figure out that he can play in the NHL and is actually stronger than the competition. He threw that monster reverse hit last night that I don't think we've ever seen him even attempt to do before. On the PK he was a bull on the wall and ensuring the puck got out. He's got good speed and was driving to the net when given the opportunity. He's taken big strides in the early going this year, hopefully he continues to progress.

I think Holmstrom's biggest problem earlier on was his tendency to defer to Horvat and Barzal. Not everyone has the brass to step forward in a spot like that. Holmstrom certainly possesses a good shot and 3rd line seems to be a good fit for him. I'm comfortable with his fit on this team.

 

[Osakahaus]

Oh and the western canada swing is next week. These bastards haven't done well on that trip either.

 

[The Real JT]

Here's a few things to note:

Barzal is now on pace for 306 SOGs and his career shooting percentage is about 11%, with not a lot of variation; a high of 12.9 and a low of 9.3. Last year it was 10.1. We all came into the season throwing fits about him shooting more. He's at 4.9 so far this year. He's not going to stay at 4.9 all season, so you can expect more goals as the season goes on.

Nelson 5G/2A on 40 SOGs
Palmieri 3G/5A on 24 SOGs
Engvall 0G/6A on 9 SOGs
It's not hard to see why that line cooled off
When Horvat is back I would put Holmstrom on the 2nd line to see if that changes the dynamic. It's pretty easy to see the other team is shading Nelson and Palmieri and not taking Engvall shooting seriously. Holmstrom is starting to get it on shooting and could very well be the better fit.

Our defense is not getting in trouble because of the system, it's getting in trouble when it tries to stickhandle too much deep in their own end. Just focus the next game while watching the play below the hashmarks. We used to wind the puck around a lot more with the outlet on the boards. A turnover on the high board is a lot less risky. Also, the league has caught on to how often we are trying to make a pressure-relieving pass to our stationary defender in the middle and are jumping the passing lane (and that was also a part of BT's system for breakouts; it's amazing to me that so many of you think our 'system' in the defensive zone is so much different now when it really is just the younger, less experienced defenders struggling to execute it). Notice we went from complaining under Barry about the unnecessary icings to these types of turnovers. We've turned over the defense corps with three younger players and they are in their adjustment/adaptation phase. It will kick in eventually. Lane was Barry's assistant for ELEVEN YEARS, he didn't come in with some entirely new approach. If you go back to last year's interviews after getting the head job, he basically noted the biggest change from BT was third man high getting more freedom to read the play. There's not a lot more than that.

I would say our forechecking is a mixed bag. The 4th line certainly has fallen off in that. Barry's forecheck was two men in the zone crisscrossing to take away the middle breakout and you almost never saw three people deep. It slowed the breakout but didn't really cause a lot of scoring chances. The forecheck now is more aggressive and it has led to both more chances and more odd-man rushes going the other way. That's what I mean about 3rd man high given more latitude.

In 2020-21, out shooting percentage was 9.4
2021-22 it was 9.7
22-23 it was 9.6
This year it is 8.6
Might not seem like a lot but we are on pace for 2520 SOGs, so 1% is a 25-6 goal difference
It's not the system, it's the execution right now.

Anyone who honestly thinks Lou is dumping Lane right now is kidding themselves. And those who pretend they know how the players are 'tuning in' or 'tuning out' Lane is just putting their own spin on it. In Barry's last year, we were not starting Holmstrom, Horvat, Engvall, Romanov, Aho, Fasching and Wahlstrom, and Dobson was on a short lease. We wanted to turn over the roster and we did, but that comes with growing pains.

And that's why I am staying positive and pushing back against the ridiculous amount of hate here. This same Minny team went into the Garden and pulled the big comeback. This league is highly competitive and you are just not going to have many easy games. Get into the playoffs, improve as the season goes on, and take your chances. Ask Bruin fans how important dominating the regular season was last year. This league is set up to reward WHO IS HOT at the END of the season, not the 1st month.

Solid analysis though I’d push back on your take that Lou is unlikely to dump Lambert.

I can see that happening if the Isles drop the next 2 games. Beating the Bruins in Boston is unlikely so we’re left with the next home game against the Caps. On paper that should be an easy win. If the Isles lose ugly in that one, I could see Lambert getting canned as early as next week before the road trip out west.

 

[periferal]

What does Engvall do?

Continue to prove that Lou should be letting some players walk instead of overpaying them and pushing our ultimately unavoidable rebuild further out into the future...?

 

[leeroggy]

Continue to prove that Lou should be letting some players walk instead of overpaying them and pushing our ultimately unavoidable rebuild further out into the future...?

He's paid $3 million, he should be a line lower in the lineup. With Pageau he becomes more of an option to shoot. We were fortunate the line worked last year, but his skill set screams 3rd line. If he gives you 10-15 goals there, the contract is fine. With two shoot first players in Nelson and Palms, he isn't going to get looks (and when he does, like the clear path to the net Saturday, he's still thinking pass).

 

[periferal]

It’s just back to the Cappy days. When MIN tied it and the Isles took a penalty, you knew the game was over.

The team would give up a goal on the power play and would fold the rest of the game. Under Barry’s first 3 seasons, you knew they wouldn’t blow leads and had an energy that they could come from behind.

Lou can stay. Lane, yeah, not really seeing this team respond to whatever he’s preaching. Time to bite the bullet and move on.

Still not sure why Lou gets a total pass when he is the one who hired the guy most around here want to fire.

This is still mostly the team that garth freakin snow built.

He's paid $3 million, he should be a line lower in the lineup. With Pageau he becomes more of an option to shoot. We were fortunate the line worked last year, but his skill set screams 3rd line. If he gives you 10-15 goals there, the contract is fine. With two shoot first players in Nelson and Palms, he isn't going to get looks (and when he does, like the clear path to the net Saturday, he's still thinking pass).

The point is...All these "3 million dollar" guys could add up to one top defenseman. We need to add higher-end talent...Not bottom 6 forwards.

 

[leeroggy]

The point is...All these "3 million dollar" guys could add up to one top defenseman. We need to add higher-end talent...Not bottom 6 forwards.

Remember, a few years ago, we discussed how to add goal scoring and I pointed out the best way to do it was to focus on getting the 3rd line to score 50 goals. If you don't get that, it really doesn't matter if we get another top defender, which would be tough to fit in anyhow, even if we didn't have these contracts. We also have to accept that while some contracts look bad, we also have some below market contracts too in Pelech and Nelson, among others.

We signed a few cheap options like Fasching so it's not so cut and dried. We could have gone after OEL for the 3rd pair, but the consensus here is that he was horrible, but he was asked to be Leddy in the pre-Trotz years on some awful teams and that masked the player he is. Now he's playing well for Florida and he'd be an excellent fit with Mayfield.

This site keeps expecting perfection in personnel and that's just not feasible.

 

[leeroggy]

Perif, one last point about adding high-end talent

The last two years of UFA signings . . . who was signed that is currently playing at a 'high-end' talent level? Gaudreau? Kane is injured. Tarasenko was spit on here. Orlov is 1G/5A and -7 for nearly $8 million. Dumba had 4G/10A in a full season last year.

Trades? Tkaczuk forced his way to Florida. Debrincat forced his way to Detroit. We weren't going to be able to afford Karlsson with salary and assets regardless of our contracts. We've been rumored forever with Nylander, but that has detractors here too.

It's easier to fix the 3rd line in today's NHL right now. Maybe that changes when the Cap increases, but right now it's hard to see a better acquisition beyond what we made with Horvat.

 

[Throttle]

Still not sure why Lou gets a total pass when he is the one who hired the guy most around here want to fire.

This is still mostly the team that garth freakin snow built.




The point is...All these "3 million dollar" guys could add up to one top defenseman. We need to add higher-end talent...Not bottom 6 forwards.

‘Cause don’t really see the purpose of firing the GM mid season. That’s not gonna change much. Maybe the new GM will start selling off the scrubs with no cap space in the league? Oh, he’ll protect the vaunted 2024 first rounder (weak draft btw).

Maybe the issue is some of the drafted players invested in aren’t worth their ticket no matter the coach?

The GM can replace the coach and see how the on ice game plan goes for the remaining 70 games…

 

[leeroggy]

‘Cause don’t really see the purpose of firing the GM mid season. That’s not gonna change much. Maybe the new GM will start selling off the scrubs with no cap space in the league? Oh, he’ll protect the vaunted 2024 first rounder (weak draft btw).

Maybe the issue is some of the drafted players invested in aren’t worth their ticket no matter the coach?

The GM can replace the coach and see how the on ice game plan goes for the remaining 70 games…

And to beat a dead horse:

Nylander, Ehlers or Fiala instead of Dal Colle in 2014
Tage instead of Bellows in 2016

Just those two years alone are your difference makers. Forget the rest of the drafts. Heck, Raty is in the minors now and played only 3 games last year for Vancouver, and we were all CROWING about how great a pick that was.

 

[The Real JT]

Let me state what’s obvious to me. More draft picks and higher value draft picks will ultimately net you better players.

Are some drafts better than others? Certainly, and last year’s draft was exceptionally talented. With that being said, most drafts have a fair amount of talent, no matter what the projections are one year prior to that draft.

Take the 2017 draft, for example. It was felt to be one of the weaker ones in recent memory. Now look at the top five picks and let me know what you think.

Here’s a thought.

Unless you’re arguably one player away from being a top contender, stop trading away your first round draft picks year after year.

 

[The Wahligator]

Let me state what’s obvious to me. More draft picks and higher value draft picks will ultimately net you better players.

Are some drafts better than others? Certainly, and last year’s draft was exceptionally talented. With that being said, most drafts have a fair amount of talent, no matter what the projections are one year prior to that draft.

Take the 2017 draft, for example. It was felt to be one of the weaker ones in recent memory. Now look at the top five picks and let me know what you think.

View attachment 765113

Here’s a thought.

Unless you’re arguably one player away from being a top contender, stop trading away your first round draft picks year after year.

So funny how we picked 5th all those years and the players we took combined probably still aren't as good as a player like Pettersson.

 

[The Real JT]

So funny how we picked 5th all those years and the players we took combined probably still aren't as good as a player like Pettersson.

I’m guessing the implication is that draft picks don’t matter that much. There’s some truth to both sides of the argument but Lou has taken his strategy to the extreme.

At some point you have to inject low cost talented youth into the system. Wishing that’s going to happen consistently with mid round picks is short sighted IMO. We’ve been lucky to hit on Dufour and Maggio but who knows if even one of them will ever be a top 6 player for us?

Have we drafted like shit in position #5? Of course. That’s on us and not on the lack of value picking a prospect that early in the draft.

Ya gotta be in it, to win it.

 

[doublechili]

I love that my team will suck ass for the next 5-10 years. What a great way to live your 30’s…

FWIW, my 30s were Maloney, Milbury, Spano, Milstein, etc..

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

Some positives were there, but combine not making enough of your opportunities with too many phases of lacking discipline and you can expect a result like this one.

The little things decide these games and we clearly didn't do them well enough.

Minny is a low-scoring team that had been struggling a bit. Wasted opportunity.

 

[DerekKingSnipes]

And to beat a dead horse:

Nylander, Ehlers or Fiala instead of Dal Colle in 2014
Tage instead of Bellows in 2016

Just those two years alone are your difference makers. Forget the rest of the drafts. Heck, Raty is in the minors now and played only 3 games last year for Vancouver, and we were all CROWING about how great a pick that was.

It’s all revisionist history, Boston should have taken Barzal too. Every team drafts busts and has steals.

 

[LeapOnOver]

It seems like Holmstrom is finally figuring out that he can play in the NHL and is actually stronger than the competition. He threw that monster reverse hit last night that I don't think we've ever seen him even attempt to do before. On the PK he was a bull on the wall and ensuring the puck got out. He's got good speed and was driving to the net when given the opportunity. He's taken big strides in the early going this year, hopefully he continues to progress.

This is the guy that's impressed me the most this season as far as expectations vs reality, Dobson being the second. Holmstrom is no longer a question mark in my mind. He's an NHLer and will have to see what kind of roll he carves out. He's got the ability to be a good two way player. I'm looking forward to watching him develop more.

 

[LeapOnOver]

This game score got spoiled in my notifications about twenty minutes before i was going to watch it so i shut it off after the last goal. I'm still glad i watched what i did as it was a decent hockey game in general. The PP again is stopping us from winning games. It looks better, but that's not saying much.

Does Palmeiri have vertigo? Why does he seem to spend so much time on his ass? He falls constantly. It's driving me nuts. It seems every time he uses his edge to get past someone he still ends up blowing out.