GDT: Game 70: Sharks vs Blackhawks, biggest game of the year. 7:30pm NBCSCA

[TheBeard]

I think the latest we could reasonably draft this year is 4th (I don't see how we win enough games to pass Anaheim) if we pass Chicago and lose both lotteries

Here are the last 20 years of 4th overall picks:

Will Smith
Shane Wright
Luke Hughes
Lucas Raymond
Bowen Byram
Brady Tkachuk
Cale Makar
Jesse Puljujarvi
Mitchell Marner
Sam Bennett
Seth Jones
Griffin Reinhart
Adam Larsson
Ryan Johansen
Evander Kane
Alex Pietrangelo
Thomas Hickey
Nicklas Backstrom
Benoit Pouliot
Andrew Ladd

Sure, there are some notable misses on that list, but their are also #1 D men, top line forwards, Stanley Cup winners and future hall of famers on that list

If your scouting is strong and the draft is good a top-5 pick is a strong basis upon which to build a winning team

It's pretty much a 50/50 split (Jury is still out on the Smith, Wright and Hughes)

 

[weastern bias]

It's pretty much a 50/50 split (Jury is still out on the Smith, Wright and Hughes)

I'll take a 50% chance at a #1D or a top line forward anyday

The Sharks have literally never had an all-situations #1D in franchise history, if we have a chance to draft the next Pietrangelo or Makar I'll gladly take the risk that he's Griffin Reinhart, or more likely Adam Larsson instead

My main point was that it isn't #1 overall or nothing at all, there are great players at the top of most drafts

 

[Alaskanice]

I get the consternation, but if we pick 2-3rd or even 4th OA, we're not looking at a middle-outcome "middle 6 or middle pairing D." Those would be mediocre to not happy outcomes for that pick. In my mind, whoever we pick will immediately be as good a prospect as Smith, or the best D prospect we have and better than Mukh. Since we are all excited about Mukh now as pretty much a 4th D floor, I think that's pretty exciting, even if we don't get Celebrini. You can't know the future but giving ourselves a shot at this caliber of a player is a resounding success for a season. Not to mention drafting at the top of the 2nd and every other round, plus the extra picks.

And it may be a nitpick, but having lived through 1992-93, I am personally convinced that season was far worse than this one. I know others lived through it too and may think differently, but for me it's no question. This season has been hard, but it's still 3rd worst in terms of pure performance and a lot better than that in terms of hope (e.g. 2020 was more depressing for me, along with 1991-93 and even the late 90's).

I believe most that post here weren’t around for that season. They don’t understand that team was more than painful to watch. 11 wins? That’s with 2 extra games.

 

[TheBeard]

And it may be a nitpick, but having lived through 1992-93, I am personally convinced that season was far worse than this one. I know others lived through it too and may think differently, but for me it's no question. This season has been hard, but it's still 3rd worst in terms of pure performance and a lot better than that in terms of hope (e.g. 2020 was more depressing for me, along with 1991-93 and even the late 90's).

I don't. I found the first few years to be much easier to deal with as an expansion team. I remember a group of losers who weren't trying to be. What I see now is a franchise that did everything in their power to ensure they'd be as bad as they could and then game in and game out we have to listen to Quinn or Grier talk about the small details that could turn a 10-2 game around.

2020 was tough because it was a dose of reality that all good things come to an end. 4 years later I'm sort of numb to the reality, but icing yet another team next year (If Grier goes that route again) purposely meant to be as bad as they can be wouldn't be the route I'd go.

I believe most that post here weren’t around for that season. They don’t understand that team was more than painful to watch. 11 wins? That’s with 2 extra games.

I didn't find them painful. I was also much younger, playing hockey and living in Montreal at the top, but the expectation then was no way they were going to be anything close to decent with the roster they were given and then handing the reigns to Falloon to be the savior. Were there times that were frustrating? Sure were. They stunk, but the effort was there.

 

[Pavelski2112]

I don't. I found the first few years to be much easier to deal with as an expansion team. I remember a group of losers who weren't trying to be. What I see now is a franchise that did everything in their power to ensure they'd be as bad as they could and then game in and game out we have to listen to Quinn or Grier talk about the small details that could turn a 10-2 game around.

2020 was tough because it was a dose of reality that all good things come to an end. 4 years later I'm sort of numb to the reality, but icing yet another team next year (If Grier goes that route again) purposely meant to be as bad as they can be wouldn't be the route I'd go.


I didn't find them painful. I was also much younger, playing hockey and living in Montreal at the top, but the expectation then was no way they were going to be anything close to decent with the roster they were given and then handing the reigns to Falloon to be the savior. Were there times that were frustrating? Sure were. They stunk, but the effort was there.

It's unfortunate that it has to work out this way, but considering what state Wilson left this franchise in, there really isn't another option. The top talent on this team was either not good enough to lead a team (Couture, Hertl), aging rapidly or gone (Thornton, Pavelski, Burns, Marleau), and the cap situation was arguably the worst in the league.

I've said it plenty of times before, but in a hard cap league, the draft is really the only way to build a strong core. The Sharks got lucky in '05, but trades like the Thornton trade don't really happen very often, especially anymore. The closest comparison you could make is maybe the Tkachuk trade but even still, Florida had just won the President's Trophy.

 

[TheBeard]

It's unfortunate that it has to work out this way, but considering what state Wilson left this franchise in, there really isn't another option. The top talent on this team was either not good enough to lead a team (Couture, Hertl), aging rapidly or gone (Thornton, Pavelski, Burns, Marleau), and the cap situation was arguably the worst in the league.

I've said it plenty of times before, but in a hard cap league, the draft is really the only way to build a strong core. The Sharks got lucky in '05, but trades like the Thornton trade don't really happen very often, especially anymore. The closest comparison you could make is maybe the Tkachuk trade but even still, Florida had just won the President's Trophy.

I agree 100% which is why I've stressed numerous times that the way things went this year absolutely had to happen. It was gonna be ugly, we all knew it going in, we knew it when we were icing a lineup with Ruuta and Hoffman and Labanc and Burroughs etc. The goal this year was nothing but disaster.

However, with that said, I can't see how Grier goes into next year with the same mindset. I don't expect him to go out there and go all "win-now" and make a bunch of dumb moves to satiate the dwindling fanbase. IMO there needs to be an attempt at on-ice improvement, mostly through the introduction of the highly-touted kids into the NHL. If he's icing a lineup next year where everyone is back in their respective leagues and a top line of Connor Brown, Kasperi Kapanen and Granlund, I'm going to be annoyed.

 

[Pavelski2112]

I agree 100% which is why I've stressed numerous times that the way things went this year absolutely had to happen. It was gonna be ugly, we all knew it going in, we knew it when we were icing a lineup with Ruuta and Hoffman and Labanc and Burroughs etc. The goal this year was nothing but disaster.

However, with that said, I can't see how Grier goes into next year with the same mindset. I don't expect him to go out there and go all "win-now" and make a bunch of dumb moves to satiate the dwindling fanbase. IMO there needs to be an attempt at on-ice improvement, mostly through the introduction of the highly-touted kids into the NHL. If he's icing a lineup next year where everyone is back in their respective leagues and a top line of Connor Brown, Kasperi Kapanen and Granlund, I'm going to be annoyed.

I still think that, until it looks like the Sharks have a young core that is good enough to build around moving forward, they will continue to try to get top end pieces through the draft. It's not like Chicago got much better this year, even after getting Bedard, because they know that one elite player isn't going to be the end of the rebuild.

 

[Cas]

I think Grier will make moves to try and acquire some actual NHL players, but he's not going to sign top free agents (no one available will move the needle) and he's not going to spend futures on stuff either.

If we improve at all next year, it'll be because of young guys stepping up, because there really isn't an alternative.

 

[TheBeard]

I still think that, until it looks like the Sharks have a young core that is good enough to build around moving forward, they will continue to try to get top end pieces through the draft. It's not like Chicago got much better this year, even after getting Bedard, because they know that one elite player isn't going to be the end of the rebuild.

Chicago at least attempted to ice a better team with the signings of Foligno, Perry and Taylor Hall. Unfortunately (or fortunately) for them only Foligno managed to survive this long.

I think Grier will make moves to try and acquire some actual NHL players, but he's not going to sign top free agents (no one available will move the needle) and he's not going to spend futures on stuff either.

If we improve at all next year, it'll be because of young guys stepping up, because there really isn't an alternative.

No, I don't think so either, but the team still needs to reach the cap floor. I'm still not 100% what the intention was when they traded for Vanacek.

 

[Pavelski2112]

Chicago at least attempted to ice a better team with the signings of Foligno, Perry and Taylor Hall. Unfortunately (or fortunately) for them only Foligno managed to survive this long.

Chicago didn't really try to get better per se - they tried to sign players that would help insulate rookies like Bedard. Foligno, Perry, and Taylor Hall won't get you anywhere in the standings in 2024.

 

[TheBeard]

Chicago didn't really try to get better per se - they tried to sign players that would help insulate rookies like Bedard. Foligno, Perry, and Taylor Hall won't get you anywhere in the standings in 2024.

Again, I don't think that was ever their intention for the season just like I'm not advocating for that to be our intention next year. However I will say, if Hall and Perry made it through the season they'd probably be closer to anaheim and Columbus than us.

 

[coooldude]

Chicago didn't really try to get better per se - they tried to sign players that would help insulate rookies like Bedard. Foligno, Perry, and Taylor Hall won't get you anywhere in the standings in 2024.

I honestly think that Chicago was trying to "take a step forward" like Grier wants to in 2025. Perry was on a 65-point pace, Hall was playing pretty well. They weren't trying to make the playoffs but I am guessing that the GM/Owner is looking at this season and saying, "well, at least we get to pick high again and Bedard is exciting for the fans."

That's our blueprint next year.

 

[PlayTheMan]

We aren't in year 2 of a rebuild. We've been rebuilding for 3 years. I agree with adding real NHL pieces on shorter deals next year. I've stated that as the probably outcome and I think it's the right way.

In terms of fans, many understand the difference being being a bad team and playing bad hockey. If you're going to ice a team with the blatant intent of being as bad as you can, fans aren't going to support it. Put forth a team with the intention of competing (even if not contending) and the support will be there. No one is going out to SJ to watch Mike Hoffman and Nico Sturm on the power play in a game the sharks are getting outshot 42-13.

Agree on Hoffman. Sturm is highly skilled, is built and could benefit from better linemates. He’s a veteran who provides exactly that & leadership for the young ones.
Here’s what I could benefit from…”How can GMMG (or any GM) attract real NHL pieces to a team that is not destined for any exemplary play/positive outcomes anytime soon regardless of the contract length…at least in the player’s # of years left in his career? Same true for Head Coaches &/or other FO personnel.

Couple of afterthoughts….
- this team is not benefiting from Quinn&Co. May be a nice guy but not NHL caliber. He’s bought into the the transparency of building poor lineups/combos, designing ineffective strategies ending in poor team performance w players wanting out!
- will always be a Barabanov advocate as it’s apparent he’s a goner at end of ‘23-24. Extraordinary hockey IQ. Great chemistry w Hertl, Granlund, Zetterlund(?). (also reference couple seasons ago w Hertl/Kane, etc., “Fire!!”)

And this beat goes on……

 

[timorous me]

Again, I don't think that was ever their intention for the season just like I'm not advocating for that to be our intention next year. However I will say, if Hall and Perry made it through the season they'd probably be closer to anaheim and Columbus than us.

Of course, the Sharks also started the season with Hertl and intended to have Couture in the lineup as well. We were never going to be good, but losing Couture for effectively the entire season, Granlund for the first month, and then Hertl for the second half (before the trade), helps to inform how bad this team has been.

Hertl being traded away and Couture being a question mark going forward also likely changes Grier's plans in terms of how to approach next season. I don't think he was necessarily planning on trading Hertl--most out there didn't see it as a likely scenario, with that contract and the cap situations for contending teams--but he jumped at an opportunity to sort of reverse the mistake that his predecessor made while still getting the kind of assets Will/Wilson could have gotten at the deadline two years ago, basically only at the loss of the salary retention Hasso has to take on.

 

[STL Shark]

Hey, if your goal is to have arguably the worst season in the history of the franchise, trade away the only legit "star/fan favorite" and end up with maybe a middle 6 or middle pairing d-man then sobeit. I'm not gonna argue anymore with people who scratch and claw to find any silver linings out of worst case scenarios. We all cope in different ways.

In terms of Grier and next season, there's this magical key word I put in there and it's "if". Until Grier shows he's actually going to take productive steps then I'll continue to temper my expectations. I do think, for better or worse, how MG visualizes next season is contingent on whether or not the ping pong balls come out in our favor.

Peace

As opposed to the alternative which is still be riddled in salary cap hell, have no chance in the draft lottery and be stuck in NHL purgatory of not bad enough to get any good prospects but not remotely good enough to compete for the playoffs, yes that is 100% my goal.

The goal is to do everything in your power to better the team/organization which is exactly what Grier has done. Whether the ping pong balls fall in your favor has nothing to do with the front office having made all of the appropriate moves to setup the team for the best possible future that it can have as it relates to the NHL team and salary cap situation.

The entire premise of your argument is an emotional response to trading a team favorite that wanted out, the ping pong balls not working out (even though we've given ourselves the best odds that we possibly can), and Grier brazenly lying to everyone's face (something that he hasn't done in his 20 months on the job) as it relates to the roster for next year being more competitive.

 

[TheBeard]

As opposed to the alternative which is still be riddled in salary cap hell, have no chance in the draft lottery and be stuck in NHL purgatory of not bad enough to get any good prospects but not remotely good enough to compete for the playoffs, yes that is 100% my goal.

I love how in the minds of some it’s either one or the other.

 

[TheBeard]

Of course, the Sharks also started the season with Hertl and intended to have Couture in the lineup as well. We were never going to be good, but losing Couture for effectively the entire season, Granlund for the first month, and then Hertl for the second half (before the trade), helps to inform how bad this team has been.

Hertl being traded away and Couture being a question mark going forward also likely changes Grier's plans in terms of how to approach next season. I don't think he was necessarily planning on trading Hertl--most out there didn't see it as a likely scenario, with that contract and the cap situations for contending teams--but he jumped at an opportunity to sort of reverse the mistake that his predecessor made while still getting the kind of assets Will/Wilson could have gotten at the deadline two years ago, basically only at the loss of the salary retention Hasso has to take on.

I do. I think Grier’s plan all along was to move on from anyone with a long contract. He’s done a tremendous job but it’s also ok to admit he was give. A lot of gifts along the way. The Karlsson resurgence made his trade possible, Musty somehow telling to 27, teams coming for Hertl, Logan potentially retiring prematurely… the team has been given a lot of lucky bounces if you will to help speed up the down-whirl part of the process

 

[spintops]

I love how in the minds of some it’s either one or the other.

Sorta like you land the #1 overall pick via some lucky lottery balls, or your entire season/franchise is a failure.

 

[TheBeard]

The entire premise of your argument is an emotional response

The entire premise of my argument is a want to see the team I root for actually play meaningful hockey, whereas some only want to see it happen if they’re assured of being heavy contenders. To each their own i suppose.

Sorta like you land the #1 overall pick via some lucky lottery balls, or your entire season/franchise is a failure.

Except one is controllable while the other is not. Grier made a choice to give us the best (but still unfavorable) odds but he still controls the roster.

 

[spintops]

The entire premise of my argument is a want to see the team I root for actually play meaningful hockey, whereas some only want to see it happen if they’re assured of being heavy contenders. To each their own i suppose.

Sharks haven't played meaningful hockey in 5 years, and i think it's a lot easier to watch this style of hockey when they actually have direction. Where as 3 years ago they were terrible and just spinning their wheels

 

[TheBeard]

Sharks haven't played meaningful hockey in 5 years, and i think it's a lot easier to watch this style of hockey when they actually have direction. Where as 3 years ago they were terrible and just spinning their wheels

I partly agree. It’ll be easier to watch next year when we start to see the fruit of the last three years of misery.

 

[Anomie2029]

The one thing I want to see from Grier is an overhaul of the management and coaching staff of the Cuda. I have close to zero confidence that they would be able to help develop any player into regular NHLers.

Successful teams that have built through the draft have relied on development of their middle round picks, whilst the unsuccessful rebuilds may have good first top 5 picks but not much else. I don't want to see the Sharks linger in the Buffalo sphere of mediocrity.

 

[Shark Finn]

The one thing I want to see from Grier is an overhaul of the management and coaching staff of the Cuda. I have close to zero confidence that they would be able to help develop any player into regular NHLers.

Successful teams that have built through the draft have relied on development of their middle round picks, whilst the unsuccessful rebuilds may have good first top 5 picks but not much else. I don't want to see the Sharks linger in the Buffalo sphere of mediocrity.

Agree. Be done with the old f***s already and can Will, McCarthy among others.

And let Grier bring in his own gang who'll be around a decade too long.

 

[timorous me]

The entire premise of my argument is a want to see the team I root for actually play meaningful hockey, whereas some only want to see it happen if they’re assured of being heavy contenders. To each their own i suppose.

I'd be excited to have meaningful Sharks hockey soon, but I just don't want to see management take shortcuts to get there. Because if this rebuild were to top out at just a fringe playoff contender--and then another rebuild were to have to then take place--I'd be awfully disappointed. But that just means I don't want Grier trading away picks/prospects for short-term fixes. So far, he seems to be showing he has the right temperament to handle this very trying and painful part of the rebuild.

As for the Hertl trade, I agree that Grier was always interested in such a move. I just would be a bit surprised if he expected someone to come in for Hertl now, with so many years to go on that contract, and especially after Hertl had to have another knee surgery. So yeah, I think he jumped at it once the return got to where he wanted it.

The more time that has passed since the deal, the better I feel about it. Part of that is the return, and part of it is Hertl not having played. I'll mostly ignore Vegas, so that will help going forward, but I imagine the disgust is going to linger a lot longer for you since you can't do that.

 

[coooldude]

The more time that has passed since the deal, the better I feel about it. Part of that is the return, and part of it is Hertl not having played. I'll mostly ignore Vegas, so that will help going forward, but I imagine the disgust is going to linger a lot longer for you since you can't do that.

Yes, to be fair to @TheBeard I don't have to watch a horribly grating, spoiled franchise fanbase rub my nose in this trade every time I step out my front door. I get why it's harder for him even if I still think it was the right thing and will do my best not to see Tomas in any kind of Vegas gear or game if I can avoid it.