Post-Game Talk: Game #25: Anaheim Ducks @ Colorado Avalanche , 6pm PT, BSSC

[Sean Garrity]

Thought they played pretty good overall, just those mistakes got punished while we couldn’t do the same. Couple of thoughts:

-FFS stop going down early and then by multiple goals.

-How many times does Leo need to win a draw cleanly in the ozone to Terry before he does something with them? I thought Terry was not good through the first two, too much overplaying but had a strong third. He needs to realize Leo is the best player on his line and play off him more, too many times he refused a 5 foot pass to a wide open Leo.

- Fowler really frustrates me in the offensive zone. It’s pretty much either shoot at a shin pad softly or rim it down low, takes no cross ice looks when players are wide open.

- I actually like McGinn.

- Not icing Leo and Terry after the 5v3 goal is ridiculous. He decided to double shift Fowler and Rico then follow it up with the 4th line when there was 20 some odd seconds on the PP.

- Mackinnon was dominant and never had to answer for his hit on Minty or Gudas. Gudas one more understandable, late in the game down one and Gudas got a couple good whacks in, but still Someone should’ve token a run at him at some point for the hit on Minty.

- Leo’s line simply didn’t have the puck enough, and we really really miss Mac and Z.

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

A 5 point game and he’s tied

Does Leo get extra credit when Ahlers whines about Bedard’s +/-? Because you know he will.

 

[CrazyDuck4u]

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

He needs to be telling the players that with some hellfire and brimstone. That shit is getting old.

 

[Henrique Iglesias]

Tough loss.


We lack finish. Too many guys in the lineup right now that work hard but don’t create anything offensively. Just treading water.

I’d like to see this team healthy. Then evaluate from there. I think it will make it clear that guys like Henrique and Silf can go at the deadline.

Lacombe with a tough turnover on the MacKinnon goal. Rico had a chance to get it out later but was soft as butter on the puck.

Carlsson is so fun to watch. Hard to believe he’s as young as he is. He’s going to be a star in this league and I’m excited about it.

Minty looked tired. Him and bush were defending the whole game it felt like.

Fowler had a better game. That soft shot that was blocked at the end was vintage Cam though.

Luneau was solid. I like that he has the confidence to rush the puck. I’m excited to watch him play for Team Canada. I think he’ll dominate.

Terry is still fighting it. Effort is there. He’ll turn it around yet. Made a beauty pass on the Carlsson goal.

 

[Arthuros]

It does feel like Terry has separation anxiety, but it's with the puck.

 

[ff8]

Not to take all the credit from Terry but I thought the pass was tipped and it looked like it would’ve been solidly behind Carlsson if it followed its original trajectory

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

Not to take all the credit from Terry but I thought the pass was tipped and it looked like it would’ve been solidly behind Carlsson if it followed its original trajectory

I think it would have been behind him but right in his wheelhouse - he was cocked and ready. The tipped pass IMO was the reason Carlsson had to take a sec to get set and shoot. So I think without the tip It would have been even more of a slam-dunk pass for Leo.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Need to bring in Tony Robbins to talk to the team before games. Tell them that they are down 0-2 before the puck even drops. Then they'll be more relaxed.

I remember a stretch to start the season where we played well from start to finish, but always lost. Then we didn't, but always came back for the win. It's possible the team clung onto that success pattern and can't get out of it?

If we can't afford Mr. Robbins, then maybe send Cronin a book called "Reframe Your Brain"?

 

[Static]

At least they don't quit. Colorado is a puke of a franchise. That many good players shouldn't feel so gross to watch.

 

[McDonald19]

Why even have Ross on the roster if you aren’t going to have him in the lineup as a deterrent against MacDermid’s goon antics?

 

[CrazyDuck4u]

At least they don't quit. Colorado is a puke of a franchise. That many good players shouldn't feel so gross to watch.

The fking dive all over the place.. Its a bunch p***yes

 

[FiveHoleTickler]

Doesn't match the eye test for Luneau and Carlsson, but it does for Carrick and Terry.

 

[JAHV]

I think it would have been behind him but right in his wheelhouse - he was cocked and ready. The tipped pass IMO was the reason Carlsson had to take a sec to get set and shoot. So I think without the tip It would have been even more of a slam-dunk pass for Leo.

Yeah, this is what I thought as well. It made Carlsson's handling of it even more impressive.

 

[HanSolo]

Doesn't match the eye test for Luneau and Carlsson, but it does for Carrick and Terry.

Yeah Luneau had a couple cough ups in the defensive zone that didn't lead to anything dangerous but past that he had a solid game. Leo was, again, one of our most dangerous forwards in terms of shot and chance production and put a goal on the board. He did whiff on some passes in the offensive and neutral zone so maybe that's skewing things.

 

[ScarTroy]

Yeah Luneau had a couple cough ups in the defensive zone that didn't lead to anything dangerous but past that he had a solid game. Leo was, again, one of our most dangerous forwards in terms of shot and chance production and put a goal on the board. He did whiff on some passes in the offensive and neutral zone so maybe that's skewing things.

I think it takes into account goals against also. Which he was on the ice for 2 of them and on the first he flubbed that pass that led to the giveaway. I like those charts, but I feel sometimes the eye test doesn’t match the game card.

 

[Firequacker]

FWIW, I'm not sure exactly how things are weighted (and some of the weighting seems very weird, especially regarding the separation of offense and production), but they do post another card that shows what stats are taken into account. It uses both real and expected goals for/against, and Luneau pretty much got burned by both.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

According to Hockey-Reference,

• Total GF productions
  • League average: 75 goals in 24 games, a 3.125 goals for/game.
  • Ducks production: 68 goals in 25 games, a 2.72 goals for/game.
    We are below the Total GF average by almost half a goal, 0.41.

• Total GA productions
  • League average: 75 GA in 24 games, a 3.125 goals against/game.
  • Ducks production: 87 GA in 25 games, a 3.48 goals for/game.
    We are above the Total GA average by 0.36, which is bad.

===========

• PP productions
  • League average: 16 goals in 80 PP opportunities, 20.0% efficiency.
  • Ducks production: 18 goals in 81 PPO's, 22.2% eff.
    Our PP unit ranks 11th in the league.

• PK productions
  • League average: 16 GA in 80 PK opportunities, 80.0% efficiency.
  • Ducks production: 22 GA in 110 PKO's, 80.0% eff.
    Our PK unit ranks 15th in the league, which is average.
    The volume of PKO's disguises the Ducks being average because we still rank with the 4th most PK goals allowed.

===========

• Non- Special Teams GF productions
  • League average: 59 goals in 24 games, a 2.46 goals for/game.
  • Ducks production: 50 goals in 25 games, a 2.00 goals for/game.
    We are below the Total GF average by almost half a goal, 0.46.

• Non- Special Teams GA productions
  • League average: 59 goals against in 24 games, a 2.46 GA/game.
  • Ducks production: 65 goals against in 25 games, a 2.60 goals for/game.
    We are almost at league average.

Anaheim's significant problem is the inability to score in Even Strength situations. According to Natural Stat Trick, we are much worse in ES scoring as we are ranked 30th with 37 ES GF. That means we have scored some goals when pulling the goalie and the three short-handed goals.

• Top-8 ES Goal Ducks goal scorers (per Hockey-Reference)
  • 1. LW Vatrano: 8 ES goals
  • 2. C McTavish: 7 ES goals
  • 3. C Carlsson: 5 ES goals
  • 4-T. C Carrick: 4 ES goals
  • 4-T. D Gudas: 4 ES goals
  • 6-T. RW Terry: 3 ES goals
  • 6-T. LW Jones: 3 ES goals
  • 6-T. RW Leason: 3 ES goals

Therein lies our ES goal scoring problem. We are generating a lot of it from our 4th liners. Carrick and Gudas have more ES goals than Terry. Granted, we are also missing Zegras, but was also struggling to score goals.

• 2022-23, First 25 games
  • Total GF = 63
  • Total GA = 106
  • PPG = 12 out of 75 opportunities (16.0% PP eff)
  • PKGA = 31 out of 89 opportunities (65.2% PK eff)
  • Non-ST GF: 51 GF
  • Non-ST GA: 75 GA

Holy smokes, Batman, last year's team had far less talent, but it has scored more Non-ST Goals For than this year's team! 51 goals last year to 50 goals this year. We're only 5 points better than last year's team despite having an improved PP, PK, and blue line defense.

What offensive system can Cronin change or alter to improve our ES goal scoring? Yes, it sucks we gave up a goal early again, but still only gave up 3 goals against, which is league average. I think Cronin is ignoring that we can't score well at Even Strength as he's too fixated on giving up an early score. We aren't a great defense to where we can keep the opposing team to scoring only 2 goals. There have been seven occurrences of keeping the opposition to 2 goals against or fewer. And we're 4-3 in those situations, which brings us back to a lack of scoring as we should be 7-0 in those games were we hold the opposition to only 2 goals against.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

FWIW, I'm not sure exactly how things are weighted (and some of the weighting seems very weird, especially regarding the separation of offense and production), but they do post another card that shows what stats are taken into account. It uses both real and expected goals for/against, and Luneau pretty much got burned by both.

Carlsson's PP goal was credited as a goal, but in the GF column, it registers as 0.00. It's the same with Carrick. I guess scoring a PP goal or Shortie doesn't register in the GF column. Is that GF column only for ES play? Doesn't make sense.

Also, it just hit me that we didn't score a goal at ES last night. It was a shortie and a PP goal. Our ES scoring suuuuucks!

 

[Frosted Tips]

Carlsson's PP goal was credited as a goal, but in the GF column, it registers as 0.00. It's the same with Carrick. I guess scoring a PP goal or Shortie doesn't register in the GF column. Is that GF column only for ES play? Doesn't make sense.

Also, it just hit me that we didn't score a goal at ES last night. It was a shortie and a PP goal. Our ES scoring suuuuucks!

It seems like individual stats are from the whole game while on-ice stats are even strength. I tried matching some of that data from the Natural Stat Trick which should be their base data as well. It doesn't match exactly but there may have been some adjustments by now.

 

[Rybread86]

Who said that?

It's been mentioned a bunch of places. Granted, it's rumors and hearsay, but that's been the word for the past... 6 to 8 months?

Jakob Silfverberg Planning Return To Sweden

Jakob Silfverberg has eye on returning to Sweden.

www.prohockeyrumors.com

 

[Deuce22]

Carlsson's PP goal was credited as a goal, but in the GF column, it registers as 0.00. It's the same with Carrick. I guess scoring a PP goal or Shortie doesn't register in the GF column. Is that GF column only for ES play? Doesn't make sense.

Also, it just hit me that we didn't score a goal at ES last night. It was a shortie and a PP goal. Our ES scoring suuuuucks!

IMO one of the major flaws with fancy/possession stats is that they only measure 5 on 5. Making value judgements while leaving out special teams is lame.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

It seems like individual stats are from the whole game while on-ice stats are even strength. I tried matching some of that data from the Natural Stat Trick which should be their base data as well. It doesn't match exactly but there may have been some adjustments by now.

I just think Anaheim doesn't get proper diligence when it comes to the Stat Card. I've identified a few times that Stat Card forgot to include individual stats for our players or that our d-men get dinged for goals on the PK. Stat Card is an amalgamation of different sources, which one of them is Natural Stat Trick.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

IMO one of the major flaws with fancy/possession stats is that they only measure 5 on 5. Making value judgements while leaving out special teams is lame.

Hockey-reference has PP and Short-handed possession stats. Natural Stat Trick has 5v4 PP and 4v5PK possession stats. But I think @Frosted Tips could be right that Stat Card only uses 5 v 5, which doesn't make sense since the other sources are doing all the work.

Here's Natural Stat Trick's heat map on shots for last night's game

Also, from NST, the Corsi map per period. The Ducks app used to have a similar possession graph too, which I really liked b/c it was a much cleaner graphic that showed the ebbs and flow better, but they no longer share.

We had more possession in the first two periods. In the third, we score on the PK and the PP.

 

[Firequacker]

IMO one of the major flaws with fancy/possession stats is that they only measure 5 on 5. Making value judgements while leaving out special teams is lame.

They're not completely useless in assessing special teams, you just have to make sure you're looking at rates instead of percentages. And that requires looking at more than just xGF%, which a lot of people who claim to swear by fancy stats don't seem to like doing. You'd think the beauty of fancy stats would be to have more data, not to try to collapse each player's value into a single number (that like you say ignores a huge part of the game), but...
To me 5v5 xGF% fills a similar niche to +/-. Flawed stats that can be useful within context when you know what they actually measure, but they usually get cited as if they're the all-encompassing One Stat to Rule Them All instead.

Hockey-reference has PP and Short-handed possession stats. Natural Stat Trick has 5v4 PP and 4v5PK possession stats. But I think @Frosted Tips could be right that Stat Card only uses 5 v 5, which doesn't make sense since the other sources are doing all the work.

It seems like the card only counts 5v5 for xGF, but counts all strengths for ixG (seeing as Carrick has a higher ixG than xGF, and I'm not a math expert but I don't think that's how that stat is supposed to work). Not sure about xGA since like @Frosted Tips mentioned, the data doesn't quite line up with Natural Stat Trick. But in the key on the graph card, it says the defense bar takes the PK into account. Nothing about the offense bar taking the PP into account.
It's weird.