OT: FUBAR in Europe

[Incubajerks]

Ah, obviously without China and probably also India backing Russia this would hardly have happened.

 

[Unsustainable]

This kind of fear mongering isn't helpful.

look what happened to toilet paper over the fear of a respiratory disease

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

The West (non-Russia & China) needs to immediately look to build rare earth & semi-conductor capability along with targeting vulnerable supply chain products for domestic production.

Sadly, the political class we have today are not FDR/Churchill types and have lined their pockets with dirty/influential money.

The problem is with Semi-conductors, that it's not just "Here, I'll spend money and get there." Once you lose the leading edge capability, it's about developing the know-how and investing 100s of billions in development and fabrication capability. Both under Trump and more recently Biden, there was an initiative to try to invest to get US there eventually, but I doubt anyone in government wants to devote the amount of resources to it as Politicians focus on here and now and what can get me elected again vs. long term strategic issue.

Even if we said: Ok, you have unlimited money Intel/IBM/AMD, etc.. Go do it. We are probably 10 years from catching up and we might not even succeed then.

I agree with your point though. These are national security issues.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I was mostly referring to "cheaper" stuff, not just cheap stuff. Anything made in China is cheaper than if made here, and that has hurt us. Yes, I don't like paying more for things. But I'd rather pay a bit more and have more jobs here (and in our allies cities) and have less of a fear that I'm paying the guy who is going to start a war then keep paying for cheaper stuff.

Unfortunately, as you said, that is hard to change cold turkey because of how wrapped up we've become with them. But if we don't take the opportunity to start unwinding ourselves from them when it is morally right to do so, how much harder will it be when to start unwinding when things are quiet....and how much harder will it be the next time there is a crisis.

I agree. I just don't see it as it something that will happen.

It's more than just "we have to pay more". Companies have outsourced so much to china for the same reason, because it's cheaper. Why do they do that? So that the bottom line is better and the stock goes up. So executives get bigger bonuses, and we as stock holders see our retirement portfolio go up (through IRAs, 401Ks, etc..).

Also, even if you wanted to reduce your dependence on China, they are the only game in town for many things. It will take a lot of time, development and investment to regain some of the capabilities the US has lost over the years.

It would be great if it could be done, I'm just skeptical of it happening.

 

[CanesUltimate11]

I bet Taiwan has at least one Nuke. They surely have the technical capability to build one if they have any fissile material. I bet they got their hands on some over the years.

Taiwan also always (or almost always) has a US Naval Ship in port. So unlike in Ukraine any attack on Taiwan will involve a direct attack on US Service members.

 

[Lempo]

Taiwan also always (or almost always) has a US Naval Ship in port. So unlike in Ukraine any attack on Taiwan will involve a direct attack on US Service members.

Ha, it's not two weeks when a talking head suggested that Finland and Sweden should permanently position sone troops in each others territory, and the unspoken but obvious rationale was pretty much that any assault by the auld K2 yellow would be considered an assault on both countries' armed forces.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

So went to Harris Teeter today to get ingredients for Dinner (and a bottle of wine). 3 vehicles at the gas pump filling up multiple 5G gas cans. I'd like to think they are landscapers who need it for their business, but I doubt it.

 

[Lempo]

So went to Harris Teeter today to get ingredients for Dinner (and a bottle of wine). 3 vehicles at the gas pump filling up multiple 5G gas cans. I'd like to think they are landscapers who need it for their business, but I doubt it.

I went to Tokmanni yesterday and lolled as they has a sale for 5 canned peasoups for 6 euros, the normal price being €1.20 apiece.

Can't blame the shopkeeper for trying to get it going.

 

[Lempo]

Lol @ Iltalehti headline.

"USA unveiled the new sanctions: Biden is not going to talk with Putin"

 

[cptjeff]

The West (non-Russia & China) needs to immediately look to build rare earth & semi-conductor capability along with targeting vulnerable supply chain products for domestic production.

Being done already. The bill to put a shitload of money (roughly 250 billion) into exactly those things it is in conference negotiations between the House and Senate right now. Should be finalized in early March.

 

[Lempo]

Chernobyl has fallen.

Ukraine took back the Hostomel airport 20 miles from Kyiv.

 

[cptjeff]

Ha, it's not two weeks when a talking head suggested that Finland and Sweden should permanently position sone troops in each others territory, and the unspoken but obvious rationale was pretty much that any assault by the auld K2 yellow would be considered an assault on both countries' armed forces.

Yep, ye olde tripwire. Well established strategy in military strategy. Makes it a lot more credible when you say you'll respond if your ally is attacked if you've got your own servicemembers where they'll be hit if that allied country is hit. That's also the major reason the US has nukes deployed in Europe- the chains of command make use authorization in a crisis almost impossible, but if Russia attacks Germany and destroys American nuclear weapons along with American troops, the domestic politics of not coming to Germany's aid become impossible. Our allies are assured, our adversaries are deterred.

 

[Lempo]

Being done already. The bill to put a shitload of money (roughly 250 billion) into exactly those things it is in conference negotiations between the House and Senate right now. Should be finalized in early March.

There was at least talk for similar thing in Europe.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

The offensive had been prepared for some time, also because such a thing cannot be organized in two days. I wonder if Putin will be content with what he is getting now, which is the fall of the Ukrainian government in order, I imagine, to set one back into the Russian sphere of influence. It will be very important to see how the US / NATO reacts. When we know this, based on the answer, we will know if Putin will stop or continue towards the other former Soviet republics, namely the Baltic states.

I would now invite you to see NATO's progressive eastward expansion over the years. The problem is that. Or at least that's what Russia / Putin can no longer accept.




We must also keep in mind that we are rightly seeing the solidarity of the whole world in the borders of Ukraine, we know that they want to join NATO but it is also true that many countries, including the United States have never been convinced to let them enter or at least they have their doubts in doing so, otherwise Ukraine would have already been welcomed. Thinking that countries like Finland can join NATO is quite utopian as well as very counterproductive, especially obviously at the moment.
Unfortunately, we can only be spectators of events and hope that new agreements will be reached.

The NATO stuff is horseshit, and Putin knows it. No one was going to let Ukraine into NATO during Putin's lifetime, for precisely these reasons.

The problem is, and has always been, that Ukraine has been *succeeding* as the largest Russian speaking democracy on the planet, and that success will endanger Putin if left to continue. If it hadn't been NATO, there would have been another reason/excuse. The fact that Putin is using "de-nazification" as a pretext is all you need to know.

 

[DaveG]

This had been in the works by Russia for several years. Putin picked the timing for a reason.

Basically since late 2013, and cemented on Feb 18th-23rd the following year. Once that chain of events started this was the inevitable outcome. The timing is not coincidental.

 

[MrazeksVengeance]

Ah, obviously without China and probably also India backing Russia this would hardly have happened.

Would be peachy if your government and Germans didn't wuss around with SWIFT kicking.

 

[MrazeksVengeance]

Yep, ye olde tripwire. Well established strategy in military strategy. Makes it a lot more credible when you say you'll respond if your ally is attacked if you've got your own servicemembers where they'll be hit if that allied country is hit. That's also the major reason the US has nukes deployed in Europe- the chains of command make use authorization in a crisis almost impossible, but if Russia attacks Germany and destroys American nuclear weapons along with American troops, the domestic politics of not coming to Germany's aid become impossible. Our allies are assured, our adversaries are deterred.

Czech republic into nukes. Make it happen.

Supposedly it makes us a target. It seems we live in a world of targets. And it's better to be a target who can shoot back.

 

[the halleJOKEL]

The NATO stuff is horseshit, and Putin knows it. No one was going to let Ukraine into NATO during Putin's lifetime, for precisely these reasons.

The problem is, and has always been, that Ukraine has been *succeeding* as the largest Russian speaking democracy on the planet, and that success will endanger Putin if left to continue. If it hadn't been NATO, there would have been another reason/excuse. The fact that Putin is using "de-nazification" as a pretext is all you need to know.

isn't ukraine's president one of two jewish heads of state in the world?

 

[Porvari]

3/4. Sword, plague, and death. We're just missing famine.

Yeah but personally, I'm still awaiting mine.

 

[Porvari]

Basically since late 2013, and cemented on Feb 18th-23rd the following year. Once that chain of events started this was the inevitable outcome. The timing is not coincidental.

I remember some Russian dissident saying at the time that while the West was still living a postwar period, Russia was years into a prewar period.

 

[Svechhammer]

Yeah, I pretty much agree on just not asking athletes about this stuff. Ovi, along with other prominent Russian athletes, are told by Putin to vocally support the government or face consequences. Russian athletes abroad have two options- love the dictator, or do the Panarin where you can never return home with any assurance of safety. While I'd love to see more moral courage among rich athletes who actually do have a way out, moral courage is admirable precisely because it's rare.

I think it is appropriate to go after Ovi for comments he's made about Putin, I also wouldn't be at all shocked if Ovechkin privately agrees. You do need to make sure pro-dictator narratives don't go unchallenged, it's not about shaming Ovi, it's about making sure that people know that they should not trust or listen to him on the issue.

End of the day, these guys are in a really difficult spot. I'd love them to go full Panarin, but I can completely understand the costs of that.

Case in point

 

[Derailed75]

Case in point

Yup doesnt mean he is pro Putin just means he is pro his family not getting struck down for him openly questioning that governement.

 

[To Be Determined]

isn't ukraine's president one of two jewish heads of state in the world?

where's the other one?

 

[Surrounded By Ahos]

where's the other one?

The Vatican.

 

[Negan4Coach]

I think we need a separate thread. Same way we had one when Corona hit. That being said, I hope everyone will stay as opinionated and cordial as ever. Because… hell, I am not sure I will be able to.
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So how do little guys close to this probably feel about it.

Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania (unison) - thank fu^k we joined NATO when we did…
Poland - Krzysztof. GET THE WINGS.
Romania - Could we please remind everyone Transnistria is a thing TOO? Yes, Moldova I am telling them.
Slovakia - *schizofrenia ensues between dumb russophiles and people who are scared because they have a border with a warring state and NATO might actually want some contribution*
Czech republic - Wait a minute! I have seen this one. It’s a classic. Right Poland? Anschluss into Sudetenland into fake attack in Gliwice. *Poland chimes in* I KNOW KURWA.
Finland -
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VITTU.

Did you know that the North Carolina Army National Guard is the "partner force" for Moldova? We've had Special Forces teams rotating in and out of there (and Ukraine) for a while now.

Ukraine has been preparing for guerrilla war for 8 years, participating in NATO exercises and such. They knew this was inevitable. If Putin choses to occupy the entire country, the price will be high.

For those of you all hot to trot for us to get involved militarily- maybe you should do the research on what a 120 kiloton MIRV from an RS-28 Sarmat would do to Raleigh, or Ft. Bragg, or Seymour Johnson AFB. I wish the Ukraine the best of luck but this isn't our fight. Give them more Javelin missiles and anti tank mines, sure. Sanctions, of course. But it would be highly reckless to get involved further.