I bet they were. Almost 1/2 of his career goals are on the powerplay. Clearly he wasn't touching the puck to set up the chance lol
Free Agent Frenzy | Part 2
- Thread starter Pip
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I bet they were. Almost 1/2 of his career goals are on the powerplay. Clearly he wasn't touching the puck to set up the chance lol
VanillaCoke
Registered User
- Oct 30, 2013
- 25,465
- 11,925
Let's see...
You have Daniel at 25 when last year was the first year since 2011-12 that he's cleared that mark, Hansen at 20 when last year was the only year in his career he's hit that mark, Eriksson hitting 25 when last year was the first year since 2011-12 that he's cleared that mark, Horvat hitting a career high, Baertschi hitting a career high, Granlund hitting a career high, Etem matching a career high, Virtanen, Tryamkin and Hutton all taking monster leaps forward and Larsen putting up 6 goals when he has 8 in his 125 game NHL career.
Yeah, some of those things might happen, but I will bet you anything that not all of them will. Do you really think that only two players will score fewer goals than last year? And just barely? Last year saw Vrbata, Burrows, Sutter, Higgins, Prust, Weber, etc. etc. all scoring fewer than they did in the year previous. Yes, injuries are part of that but guess what? Injuries will happen next year too.
Someone will miss 25 games, a few players will miss 15 games, etc. At least someone will score ~10 goals fewer than your expectation, whether it's due to injury, ineffectiveness, or both. Probably more than one player.
You're also missing 9 goals from Vey/Higgins/Prust/Gaunce BTW, so even your +31 becomes +22 unless you're expecting 9 goals from random callups who you didn't mention.
In general I think you also greatly underestimate how hard it is to score goals. You seem to take it as a given that anyone will get 5 over a full season. How many goals did you expect Yannick Weber to get last year? Weber has proven a lot more in the NHL than Larsen has and he failed to get a single goal. Expecting 17 combined from Hutton, Tryamkin and Larsen is just crazy IMO.
Here is mine:
D.Sedin 22
H.Sedin 10
Eriksson 25
Baertschi 18
Horvat 15
Hansen 15
Burrows 5
Sutter 15
Etem 8
Dorsett 5
Granlund 5
Virtanen 9
(Other) 5
Edler 6
Tanev 3
Hutton 3
RealGud 3
Tryamkin 2
Larsen 4
Sbisa 2
(Other) 2
Total: 182 goals, 4 fewer than last year.
Bookmark this thread for 8 months from now.
Let's see...
You have Daniel at 25 when last year was the first year since 2011-12 that he's cleared that mark, Hansen at 20 when last year was the only year in his career he's hit that mark, Eriksson hitting 25 when last year was the first year since 2011-12 that he's cleared that mark, Horvat hitting a career high, Baertschi hitting a career high, Granlund hitting a career high, Etem matching a career high, Virtanen, Tryamkin and Hutton all taking monster leaps forward and Larsen putting up 6 goals when he has 8 in his 125 game NHL career.
Yeah, some of those things might happen, but I will bet you anything that not all of them will. Do you really think that only two players will score fewer goals than last year? And just barely? Last year saw Vrbata, Burrows, Sutter, Higgins, Prust, Weber, etc. etc. all scoring fewer than they did in the year previous. Yes, injuries are part of that but guess what? Injuries will happen next year too.
Someone will miss 25 games, a few players will miss 15 games, etc. At least someone will score ~10 goals fewer than your expectation, whether it's due to injury, ineffectiveness, or both. Probably more than one player.
You're also missing 9 goals from Vey/Higgins/Prust/Gaunce BTW, so even your +31 becomes +22 unless you're expecting 9 goals from random callups who you didn't mention.
In general I think you also greatly underestimate how hard it is to score goals. You seem to take it as a given that anyone will get 5 over a full season. How many goals did you expect Yannick Weber to get last year? Weber has proven a lot more in the NHL than Larsen has and he failed to get a single goal. Expecting 17 combined from Hutton, Tryamkin and Larsen is just crazy IMO.
Here is mine:
D.Sedin 22
H.Sedin 10
Eriksson 25
Baertschi 18
Horvat 15
Hansen 15
Burrows 5
Sutter 15
Etem 8
Dorsett 5
Granlund 5
Virtanen 9
(Other) 5
Edler 6
Tanev 3
Hutton 3
RealGud 3
Tryamkin 2
Larsen 4
Sbisa 2
(Other) 2
Total: 182 goals, 4 fewer than last year.
Bookmark this thread for 8 months from now.
As I said, last year was a perfect storm of a number of factors. I'm sure a few won't hit the mark (I've subtracted 10 goals for that factor) but a few might exceed. A balance of 30+ isn't a stretch IMO after such a terrible year, offensive youth getting a year of development, adding Eriksson, and it would be extremely unlucky if injuries to key players were as bad as last year.
So we have framed it with the pessimistic view and the optimistic view (of course I consider my own as the realistic view....
) Yup, bookmark this thread. It will probably fall somewhere in the middle....lolI don't consider my view pessimistic at all. That's the scary thing. I still have several players hitting career highs, Daniel and Eriksson exceeding their 14-15 totals, nobody cratering, etc.
And our injuries last year were nothing special really. The torts year was the perfect storm. This team really is that bad.
And our injuries last year were nothing special really. The torts year was the perfect storm. This team really is that bad.
I'll wade into this discussion a bit....
If we simply go with career averages on the expected top 12 forwards and top 6 D-man you get 215 goals or thereabout. This assumes everyone is healthy for 82 games.
D.Sedin 25.4
H.Sedin 15.8
Eriksson 23.9
Baertschi 14.8
Horvat 15.8
Hansen 15.1
Burrows 19.7
Sutter 16.4
Etem 10.6
Dorsett 7.3
Granlund 12.8
Virtanen 15
Edler 9.5
Tanev 3.9
Hutton 1.1
RealGud 2.9
Tryamkin 2
Larsen 5.2
Of course being 100% healthy that won't happen and it would seem to me that the replacement player on average is going to score less than the person they are replacing so 215 would be an upper bound I think. That is a middle of the pack total as an upper end. Now we look at the list and Burrows is not likely to hit his career average of nearly 20 goals. He likely hits 10. I think 15-16 goal average each for the likes of Virtanen, Horvat, Baertschi, Sutter and Hansen is fair. Some may hit higher and others lower. I think the blueline looks fair with Edler maybe being a goal or two high but leave it as is. I don't see Granlund with nearly 13 goals with the icetime he'll be getting. Dorsett is not likely to get 7...I think it's pretty safe to shave somewhere on the order of 15 goals from the career average total if we were to make predictions.
That puts them firmly in the bottom 5 or 6 offenses in the league. Again.
If we simply go with career averages on the expected top 12 forwards and top 6 D-man you get 215 goals or thereabout. This assumes everyone is healthy for 82 games.
D.Sedin 25.4
H.Sedin 15.8
Eriksson 23.9
Baertschi 14.8
Horvat 15.8
Hansen 15.1
Burrows 19.7
Sutter 16.4
Etem 10.6
Dorsett 7.3
Granlund 12.8
Virtanen 15
Edler 9.5
Tanev 3.9
Hutton 1.1
RealGud 2.9
Tryamkin 2
Larsen 5.2
Of course being 100% healthy that won't happen and it would seem to me that the replacement player on average is going to score less than the person they are replacing so 215 would be an upper bound I think. That is a middle of the pack total as an upper end. Now we look at the list and Burrows is not likely to hit his career average of nearly 20 goals. He likely hits 10. I think 15-16 goal average each for the likes of Virtanen, Horvat, Baertschi, Sutter and Hansen is fair. Some may hit higher and others lower. I think the blueline looks fair with Edler maybe being a goal or two high but leave it as is. I don't see Granlund with nearly 13 goals with the icetime he'll be getting. Dorsett is not likely to get 7...I think it's pretty safe to shave somewhere on the order of 15 goals from the career average total if we were to make predictions.
That puts them firmly in the bottom 5 or 6 offenses in the league. Again.
TruGr1t
Proper Villain
- Jun 26, 2003
- 23,383
- 7,353
Linden just said there's nothing pending on free agents: https://soundcloud.com/tsn-radio-va...up-eriksson-helps-in-a-number-of-areas#t=0:00
Might re-visit it later, but in a "holding pattern" currently. Also said trade talks didn't go anywhere and there's nothing pending on that front either.
Might re-visit it later, but in a "holding pattern" currently. Also said trade talks didn't go anywhere and there's nothing pending on that front either.
I think you also have to figure things like who is playing what minutes, and with who. Eriksson probably with the twins means he might score a bit more, but Daniel and Hank take a hit. sutter if last year is a signe gets some of Horvats Offensive zone time, so even him improving is heard for him to gain more points. Hansen not being with the twins sees his production drop, Burrows as mentioned will see a decline, things like that.
opendoor
Registered User
- Dec 12, 2006
- 11,719
- 1,403
Let's see...
You have Daniel at 25 when last year was the first year since 2011-12 that he's cleared that mark, Hansen at 20 when last year was the only year in his career he's hit that mark, Eriksson hitting 25 when last year was the first year since 2011-12 that he's cleared that mark, Horvat hitting a career high, Baertschi hitting a career high, Granlund hitting a career high, Etem matching a career high, Virtanen, Tryamkin and Hutton all taking monster leaps forward and Larsen putting up 6 goals when he has 8 in his 125 game NHL career.
Yeah, some of those things might happen, but I will bet you anything that not all of them will. Do you really think that only two players will score fewer goals than last year? And just barely? Last year saw Vrbata, Burrows, Sutter, Higgins, Prust, Weber, etc. etc. all scoring fewer than they did in the year previous. Yes, injuries are part of that but guess what? Injuries will happen next year too.
Someone will miss 25 games, a few players will miss 15 games, etc. At least someone will score ~10 goals fewer than your expectation, whether it's due to injury, ineffectiveness, or both. Probably more than one player.
You're also missing 9 goals from Vey/Higgins/Prust/Gaunce BTW, so even your +31 becomes +22 unless you're expecting 9 goals from random callups who you didn't mention.
In general I think you also greatly underestimate how hard it is to score goals. You seem to take it as a given that anyone will get 5 over a full season. How many goals did you expect Yannick Weber to get last year? Weber has proven a lot more in the NHL than Larsen has and he failed to get a single goal. Expecting 17 combined from Hutton, Tryamkin and Larsen is just crazy IMO.
Here is mine:
D.Sedin 22
H.Sedin 10
Eriksson 25
Baertschi 18
Horvat 15
Hansen 15
Burrows 5
Sutter 15
Etem 8
Dorsett 5
Granlund 5
Virtanen 9
(Other) 5
Edler 6
Tanev 3
Hutton 3
RealGud 3
Tryamkin 2
Larsen 4
Sbisa 2
(Other) 2
Total: 182 goals, 4 fewer than last year.
Bookmark this thread for 8 months from now.
I think your player estimates are a pretty good start, but you're underestimating how many goals random call ups will get. Every year the Canucks usually get at least 20 or so goals from guys who weren't on the opening day roster. Still though, this doesn't look like a team that's going to score a ton of goals barring an unexpected jump forward in development for one of the young players.
Jimson Hogarth*
Registered User
- Nov 21, 2013
- 12,858
- 3
Henrik hasnt scored 10 goals since 2007 yet your chastising someone for using unrealistic numbers based off previous years results?Let's see...
You have Daniel at 25 when last year was the first year since 2011-12 that he's cleared that mark, Hansen at 20 when last year was the only year in his career he's hit that mark, Eriksson hitting 25 when last year was the first year since 2011-12 that he's cleared that mark, Horvat hitting a career high, Baertschi hitting a career high, Granlund hitting a career high, Etem matching a career high, Virtanen, Tryamkin and Hutton all taking monster leaps forward and Larsen putting up 6 goals when he has 8 in his 125 game NHL career.
Yeah, some of those things might happen, but I will bet you anything that not all of them will. Do you really think that only two players will score fewer goals than last year? And just barely? Last year saw Vrbata, Burrows, Sutter, Higgins, Prust, Weber, etc. etc. all scoring fewer than they did in the year previous. Yes, injuries are part of that but guess what? Injuries will happen next year too.
Someone will miss 25 games, a few players will miss 15 games, etc. At least someone will score ~10 goals fewer than your expectation, whether it's due to injury, ineffectiveness, or both. Probably more than one player.
You're also missing 9 goals from Vey/Higgins/Prust/Gaunce BTW, so even your +31 becomes +22 unless you're expecting 9 goals from random callups who you didn't mention.
In general I think you also greatly underestimate how hard it is to score goals. You seem to take it as a given that anyone will get 5 over a full season. How many goals did you expect Yannick Weber to get last year? Weber has proven a lot more in the NHL than Larsen has and he failed to get a single goal. Expecting 17 combined from Hutton, Tryamkin and Larsen is just crazy IMO.
Here is mine:
D.Sedin 22
H.Sedin 10
Eriksson 25
Baertschi 18
Horvat 15
Hansen 15
Burrows 5
Sutter 15
Etem 8
Dorsett 5
Granlund 5
Virtanen 9
(Other) 5
Edler 6
Tanev 3
Hutton 3
RealGud 3
Tryamkin 2
Larsen 4
Sbisa 2
(Other) 2
Total: 182 goals, 4 fewer than last year.
Bookmark this thread for 8 months from now.
PM
Glass not 1/2 full
- Apr 8, 2014
- 9,869
- 1,664
Let's see...
You have Daniel at 25 when last year was the first year since 2011-12 that he's cleared that mark, Hansen at 20 when last year was the only year in his career he's hit that mark, Eriksson hitting 25 when last year was the first year since 2011-12 that he's cleared that mark, Horvat hitting a career high, Baertschi hitting a career high, Granlund hitting a career high, Etem matching a career high, Virtanen, Tryamkin and Hutton all taking monster leaps forward and Larsen putting up 6 goals when he has 8 in his 125 game NHL career.
Yeah, some of those things might happen, but I will bet you anything that not all of them will. Do you really think that only two players will score fewer goals than last year? And just barely? Last year saw Vrbata, Burrows, Sutter, Higgins, Prust, Weber, etc. etc. all scoring fewer than they did in the year previous. Yes, injuries are part of that but guess what? Injuries will happen next year too.
Someone will miss 25 games, a few players will miss 15 games, etc. At least someone will score ~10 goals fewer than your expectation, whether it's due to injury, ineffectiveness, or both. Probably more than one player.
You're also missing 9 goals from Vey/Higgins/Prust/Gaunce BTW, so even your +31 becomes +22 unless you're expecting 9 goals from random callups who you didn't mention.
In general I think you also greatly underestimate how hard it is to score goals. You seem to take it as a given that anyone will get 5 over a full season. How many goals did you expect Yannick Weber to get last year? Weber has proven a lot more in the NHL than Larsen has and he failed to get a single goal. Expecting 17 combined from Hutton, Tryamkin and Larsen is just crazy IMO.
Here is mine:
D.Sedin 22
H.Sedin 10
Eriksson 25
Baertschi 18
Horvat 15
Hansen 15
Burrows 5
Sutter 15
Etem 8
Dorsett 5
Granlund 5
Virtanen 9
(Other) 5
Edler 6
Tanev 3
Hutton 3
RealGud 3
Tryamkin 2
Larsen 4
Sbisa 2
(Other) 2
Total: 182 goals, 4 fewer than last year.
Bookmark this thread for 8 months from now.
I think your numbers are far more realistic. The thing is that injuries always make these type of number exercises futile. We know there will be key injuries but we can't predict to who. For example, say Eriksson misses 25 games. That will really skew these numbers.
I think a better exercise is to compare this years lineup to last years. Based on the addition of Eriksson and the growth is a few of the young guys, I think a slight increase in production is likely. We also had well above average key injuries last year which based on probability is unlikely to happen again.
These "individual" goal projections are totally meaningless when you don't factor in ice time.
Individually, sure, Hansen might hit 20 goals IF he plays in the top 6 the majority of the season.
Individually, sure, Virtanen might hit 15 goals IF he was playing regular 15-18 minutes in the O-zone and including PP time.
Individually, sure, Sutter might hit 20 goals like he did in Pittsburgh IF he was playing close to 20 minutes.
But as a whole, I find the goal totals too optimistic.
Like I said, a cup contender only had four 20+ goal scorers. Minutes need to be spread around. I highly doubt most of the Canucks will be close to their career highs again.
Here's my top 6 projection:
Daniel - 25
Henrik - 12
Eriksson - 31
Baertschi - 16
Horvat - 18
Hudler - 16
Bottom 6:
Sutter - 14
Hansen - 15
Etem - 12
Burrows - 7
Granlund - 6
Dorsett - 5
Virtanen - 9
Last year, only 6 players cracked 10 goals. The year before we went to the playoffs against Calgary, we had 12 players crack 10 goals.
So even my projections are assuming we make the playoffs.
Individually, sure, Hansen might hit 20 goals IF he plays in the top 6 the majority of the season.
Individually, sure, Virtanen might hit 15 goals IF he was playing regular 15-18 minutes in the O-zone and including PP time.
Individually, sure, Sutter might hit 20 goals like he did in Pittsburgh IF he was playing close to 20 minutes.
But as a whole, I find the goal totals too optimistic.
Like I said, a cup contender only had four 20+ goal scorers. Minutes need to be spread around. I highly doubt most of the Canucks will be close to their career highs again.
Here's my top 6 projection:
Daniel - 25
Henrik - 12
Eriksson - 31
Baertschi - 16
Horvat - 18
Hudler - 16
Bottom 6:
Sutter - 14
Hansen - 15
Etem - 12
Burrows - 7
Granlund - 6
Dorsett - 5
Virtanen - 9
Last year, only 6 players cracked 10 goals. The year before we went to the playoffs against Calgary, we had 12 players crack 10 goals.
So even my projections are assuming we make the playoffs.
Just for fun my ones are set beside yours in bold. This ignores the inevitable injuries.
Henrik hasnt scored 10 goals since 2007 yet your chastising someone for using unrealistic numbers based off previous years results?
If he had put 11 instead of 10 would you have even bothered to post this lol?
Don't disagree. Some will be higher than career averages and some lower but I think going with the career averages likely gets you close to that upper limit....and that upper limit isn't very good. Everything going well seems to put this team in the 15-20th range for goals scored.
biturbo19
Registered User
- Jul 13, 2010
- 25,957
- 11,017
The problem in going with "career averages" is that we've got a handful of young players with very short careers (and trending upward) who are going to be counted on for continued growth, if this team is going to score at a decent rate.
Guys like Baerstchi and Horvat for instance, are guys who appear to be trending up from their "career averages" as they start to figure out the league.
Now, there are always injuries and other factors that play in, and if we get the wrong injuries, some key pieces regress harshly, or any number of other unfortunate situations occur...it's entirely possible, even probable that this team will be a bottom-5 sort of team in terms of scoring next year.
The point is, you can say that for most every team in the bottom half or so of the league. Any one of them could end up in the bottom-5 next year, if things don't go well for them. That's parity. Just the same as Canucks went from Top-10 in scoring in 2014-15, to Bottom-5 in scoring in 2015-16 without exactly the most radical changes to the lineup.
We're talking very fine margins here from middle-pack to bottom of the pack. 20-30 goals can swing things massively. A few nice blowout wins here and there to pad stats, a young player or two "breaking out", the right guys staying completely healthy, or even just a team that doesn't start "tanking" for the final months of the season and mail it in with a hobbled #1C, auditioning minor leaguers who can't accomplish offense...these sort of things are the sort of swing that the Canucks need to fall in their favour. Which is optimistic, yes...but that's the sort of optimistic outcome that tends to be the difference a lot of years, for those "bubble teams", middling teams, and bottom-end teams.
The Canucks had been such a good (regular season) team for so long, it's like a lot of people didn't seem to notice what life was like for the lesser lights most years or something. It's a grind, and things going right or wrong tends to be the difference between "playoffs/out/bottom-5".
2014-15 was kind of a perfect storm of things going right for this team. Top-10 in scoring, Playoffs, Mission Accomplished, etc. It was a good year. 2015-16 was kind of a perfect storm of things going wrong, on a team that just isn't built to sustain significant setbacks anymore. Miserable disaster (especially post-new year), everything was doom and gloom, team fell on its face and landed on a nice draft pick at least. It was a bad year. What 2016-17 has in store for the Canucks...where they fall on that spectrum, is most likely going to have quite a bit to do with how many things go right vs how many things go wrong. The fine margins of a parity-driven league.
kanucks25
Chris Tanev #1 Fan
I get the feeling that a deal was really close but it fell through. Just basing that on Benning's presser on July 1, he seemed really confident like something was about to get done on that forward he described.
Perhaps the deal was dependent on the other team making a different trade or signing first that didn't end up happening.
GetFocht
Indestructible
- Jun 11, 2013
- 9,077
- 4,373
then it has to do with Evander Kane, Tim Murray is waiting to see if Kane is criminally charged.
VanillaCoke
Registered User
- Oct 30, 2013
- 25,465
- 11,925
Well they have paces around the 16 goal mark which is not likely to be that far from the realism and why when you group a bunch of those guys together and see that a career average of 16 between them is about right. You also have older players who are in decline that offset that growth.
In the end those numbers are going to give a fairly accurate overall picture unless you have multiple players with break out seasons. Which is certainly possible of course. I don't think it likely but it's possible. I also bumped Virtanen up some I believe.
The point is, you can say that for most every team in the bottom half or so of the league. Any one of them could end up in the bottom-5 next year, if things don't go well for them. That's parity. Just the same as Canucks went from Top-10 in scoring in 2014-15, to Bottom-5 in scoring in 2015-16 without exactly the most radical changes to the lineup.
Of course there are always factors. My argument is that using the career numbers puts the team around 15th or so as a reasonable upper bound. I believe that is a pretty accurate expectation...a middle of the road offense if things go well. I could be wrong and we see some surprised like in 2014/15 when Burrows and Matthias both were knocking on the 20 goal door. You also had Weber with 11...I'm not even sure the entire blueline will score 11 this year (I kid...but they only scored 22 last year and I'm not sure I expect anymore this year). I don't think anyone should reasonably look at this roster and believe it will be one of the offensive powerhouses of the league. But yes it can happen as it did in 14/15 but it was certainly a surprise.
Indeed we are. But this isn't a team where I see a multitude of 20 goal scorers to confidently say they are going to score like the Blues and Kings scored last year (as a couple of examples...they were 14th and 15th). Can they get there? Sure but it forms more of an upper bound of what to expect is things go well. And that's the same spot the career numbers put the team.
TruGr1t
Proper Villain
- Jun 26, 2003
- 23,383
- 7,353
Well we could use some more good players, but yes we really don't need anymore depth/fringe guys.
been touched upon before, but source:
http://www.todaysslapshot.com/nichols-notes/linden-trade-didnt-really-come-together-canucks/
http://www.todaysslapshot.com/nichols-notes/linden-trade-didnt-really-come-together-canucks/
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