Foster Hewitt semi-final: Windsor Spitfires vs. Winnipeg Falcons

[VanIslander]

Foster Hewitt division:


Windsor Spitfires

coach Barry Trotz

Toe Blake - Jean Beliveau (C) - Mike Bossy
Henrik Zetterberg (A) - Frank Fredrickson - Dany Heatley
Smokey Harris - Jacques Lemaire - Mickey MacKay
Gilles Tremblay - Vincent Damphousse - Ken Randall
Ernie Russell, Eric Staal

Mark Howe - Earl Seibert (A)
Ryan Suter - Brent Burns
Doug Mohns - Bob Goldham
Sandis Ozolinsh

Ed Belfour
Ed Giacomin


vs.


Winnipeg Falcons

coach Lester Patrick

Sid Abel (A) - Peter Forsberg - Bill Cook (C)
Jiri Holik - Peter Stastny - Vladimir Martinec
Baldy Northcott - Neil Colville - Jimmy Ward
Matthew Tkachuk - Dan Bain - Phil Watson
Brady Tkachuk, Bobby Holik

Derian Hatcher (A) - Eddie Shore
Bill Quackenbush - Bullet Joe Simpson
Leo Reise Jr - Kevin Hatcher
Andrei Markov

Charlie Gardiner
Connor Hellebuyck

​

Click to read more...

 

[VanIslander]

Post your special teams, links, photos, comments, etc.

 

[spitsfan24]

PP 1:

Toe Blake - Jean Beliveau - Mike Bossy
Mark Howe - Brent Burns

PP 2:

Henrik Zetterberg - Frank Fredrickson - Dany Heatley
Doug Mohns - Earl Seibert

PK 1:

Vinny Damphousse - Henrik Zetterberg
Ryan Suter - Earl Seibert

PK 2:

Jacques Lemaire - Mickey MacKay
Mark Howe - Bob Goldham

Looking forward to this series. I'll have some more thoughts on it within the next couple of days.

 

[nabby12]

Winnipeg Falcons

Coach: Lester Patrick*

Sid Abel(A)¹‡-Peter Forsberg-Bill Cook(C)*†
Jiri Holik°ª-Peter Stastny°-Vladimir Martinec°
Baldy Northcott⁴-Neil Colville*‡-Jimmy Ward⁴
Matthew Tkachuk⁵-Dan Bain²-Phil Watson*
Brady Tkachuk⁵-Bobby Holikª
_____________________________
Derian Hatcher(A)³-Eddie Shore
Bill Quackenbush¹-Bullet Joe Simpson²†
Leo Reise Jr¹‡-Kevin Hatcher³
Andrei Markov
__________________
Charlie Gardiner
Connor Hellebuyck²

Legend:
*=Lester Patrick & players he's coached to Stanley Cups [Patrick, Cook, Colville, Watson]
°=Czechoslovak National Team Teammates, 1975-79, 2x IIHF Gold Medalists & Canada Cup Finalists [J. Holik, Stastny, Martinec- 1st & 3rd entries italicized because linemates]
¹=Detroit Red Wings Teammates, 1946-47 to 1948-49 (2x Stanley Cup Finals & 1 Wales Trophy)-
[Abel, Quackenbush, Reise Jr]
²=Native to and/or flourished in Manitoba [Bain (career w/Victorias), Simpson (born Manitoba, played 3 years in MB for Victorias & Selkirk), Hellebuyck (currently starring for Jets)]
³=Brothers & teammates, Gold Medal Winning 1996 World Cup of Hockey Team USA squad [D. Hatcher, K. Hatcher]
⁴=Linemates, 1929-30 to 1937-38 Montreal Maroons, 2x 1st Pl Canadian Division, 1934-35 Stanley Cup Champions [Northcott, Ward]
⁵=Brothers II, [M. Tkachuk, B. Tkachuk]
ª=avuncular relationship (uncle/nephew) [J. Holik, B. Holik]
‡=WWII Veterans [Abel, Colville, Reise Jr]
†=WWI Veterans [Cook, Simpson]

PP1:
Bill Cook
Sid Abel-Eddie Shore-Peter Forsberg
Joe Simpson

PP2:
Bain
Colville-Stastny-Martinec
K. Hatcher

extra PPers - M. Tkachuk, Quackenbush

PK1:
Northcott-P. Watson
D, Hatcher-Colville

PK2:
J. Holik-Martinec
Quackenbush-K. Hatcher

extra PKers - Shore, Reise Jr.

 

[nabby12]

1st line: close. S. Abel>Toe Blake, Beliveau>Forsberg, Cook~Bossy (though there are reasons to prefer Cook, such as he's more of a physical presence, and has more versatile offense [healthy Assist totals for Saskatoon, healthy Goals totals for the Rangers]).

2nd line: Zetterberg>J. Holik. [Holik absolutely does NOT take a back seat to Zetterberg defensively; but it's easier to demonstrate an even-strength scoring edge for Zetterberg.]
Stastny>Frederickson. The rise in esteem for Frederickson is heartening, but in a scoring-line context, Stastny is more impactful.
Martinec>Heatley.
Edge at two of the three positions, and a chemistry bonus, to boot. Advantage Winnipeg.

3rd line: Northcott>Smokey Harris, Colville~Lemaire, MacKay>Ward. Thumbnail impression- close.

4th line: M. Tkachuk, having put together close to half of an Hall of Fame career, has to be considered better than Gilles Tremblay. Bain>Damphousse. Randall might last an ATD season at Forward and be preferred to Phil Watson if Trotz puts him on "salad island" to keep his playing weight under control. Still, with another 2-1 scorecard, Advantage Winnipeg.

1st D-pairing: close. E. Shore>Seibert>M. Howe>D. Hatcher. Although one has to favour Shore, who is a top 10 hockey player of all time.

2nd D-pairing: Quackenbush>Ryan Suter, J. Simpson>B. Burns. Advantage Winnipeg. The biggest line/pairing advantage for either team, this series.

3rd D-pairing: There's a Jekyll-Hyde aspect to Mohns (more on that later), but Goldham is more even-strength useful than K. Hatcher, ADVANTAGE WINDSOR, but not as much of an advantage as Winnipeg's second D pairing edge,

The singularities-

Coaching: Lester Patrick holds a pretty un-controversial edge over Barry Trotz.
Advantage Winnipeg,

Goaltending: Charlie Gardiner is one or two tiers above Ed Belfour, a plus that could prove decisive in any closely-contested game.
Advantage Winnipeg.

The little things-
1) Don't know why Zetterberg has an 'A' instead of Frederickson.
2) I know this sounds like @tabness , but Doug Mohns has some of the most hideous road splits yet seen in ATD- I mean- worse than Kovalchuk-grade. I fully expect Trotz to game-plan to minimize that vulnerability, because it could get ugly if he doesn't.
3) Windsor has the most L-handed (shot) set of Forwards in the entire Conference. When coach Trotz would like a R-hand shot Center to take a draw, his option is ... - ...... nobody.
4) Interesting to discover that Trotz has one real-life former charge on his team (Ryan Suter). Lester Patrick has three (Bill Cook, Neil Colville, Phil Watson).
5) The only readily apparent real-life teammate connection on Windsor is Beliveau-Gilles Tremblay-Lemaire, and they can't exactly be on the ice at the same time. Winnipeg has several such connections. Winnipeg is built from girders. Windsor is built from billets.

 

[spitsfan24]

I don't necessarily agree with a position by position breakdown (especially one where LWs are compared to their LW counterparts when they technically aren't even on the same side of the ice as those players, obviously same with the RWs as well), but I will go line-by-line to outline my comments.

Forwards
1st line: I think Blake-Beliveau-Bossy very well could be the best line still in the playoffs. While Winnipeg's first line is very formidable, I believe the two best forwards in this series reside in Windsor. That their skillsets mesh together perfectly is just icing on the cake. If Winnipeg is going to give their first defensive pair an advantage because Shore is a top 10 player of all time (more on that later), then surely Beliveau ticks off all the same boxes, making this an advantage for Windsor.

2nd line: While I believe my opponent is underrating Fredrickson's credentials as a scoring line threat, I agree that Winnipeg's chemistry pushes them over the edge, giving them an advantage here.

3rd line: Again, I can't say I disagree with their assessment of this being an incredibly close matchup. Although, I will say I think MacKay's advantage over Ward is the largest discrepancy of any on this line.

4th line: I think the discipline factor makes this closer than Winnipeg would like you to believe. Two differing philosophies with these lines: Windsor's is predominately predicated on defensive play, while Winnipeg's seems to lack any discernible identity beyond collecting another player that Patrick coached. I made the decision to focus on defensive play with this line because if they can just play even hockey for their minutes on the ice, it shortens the game, allowing my game-breakers to be that much more effective in close games. I'd give this matchup to Windsor because of this, and what I'm about to dive into next.

Defensemen
1st pair: I agree that Shore and Hatcher have the advantage here, *in theory*. On paper, Shore and Hatcher sounds like a wonderful idea. But consider this: Of Eddie Shore's 16 playoff series, he has been top three in PIMs a whopping 14 times. That's 87.5% of the time. That percentage leads all players from 1918 to present. Derian Hatcher is 12th on this list. So while Winnipeg's pair may look enticing, the fact of the matter is, they simply won't be on the ice enough over the course of the series to be as impactful as Windsor's first pair. Additionally, it puts more stress on Winnipeg's bottom pair, forcing them to see minutes that they may not be able to handle. Advantage Windsor.

*Just to tie a bow on Winnipeg's 4th forward line as well. I alluded to discipline being a factor, and that was because Matthew Tkachuk also finds himself 34th on this list. Winnipeg's 4th line x-factor will need to stay out of the box in order to live up to his expectations; something he hasn't shown to be capable of in his career thus far.*

2nd pair: No comments here. Winnipeg has the advantage.

3rd pair: Nothing new to say here other than that Mohns' road splits won't be that much of a factor considering Windsor has home-ice advantage in this series. If for some reason it becomes a problem, there is a more than capable replacement lined up in Ozolinsh. Advantage Windsor.

Goaltending

Gardiner's got the edge over Belfour, although a "tier or two above" seems to be a hyperbolic statement. In a singular playoff series, one doesn't out-perform the other to any significant degree in my opinion.

Overall, I think this series is pretty close. But Windsor's game-breakers at the top of the lineup, commitment to two-way play up and down the lineup, and a considerable advantage in discipline (especially among top players) and defensive depth, will ultimately allow them to triumph.

 

[VanIslander]

I don't necessarily agree with a position by position breakdown (especially one where LWs are compared to their LW counterparts when they technically aren't even on the same side of the ice as those players, obviously same with the RWs as well)

Indeed! This is a thought experiment: what if they played against each other? Draft your LWers to face their RWers, and visa versa. It ain't top line vs. top line, it's: you put him out there? we have home ice advantage, we putting this guy in his grill for the face off. That's hockey.

4th line... I made the decision to focus on defensive play with this line because if they can just play even hockey for their minutes on the ice, it shortens the game, allowing my game-breakers to be that much more effective in close games.

That is a classic strategy. Some coaches roll four lines, some match up, some roll 3 and put special teamers on the 4th with minimal even-strength minutes.

 

[nabby12]

Speaking of "classic strategy," Windsor's line-up is built in a classic ATD-way... glue guy LW, generalist (or distributor) C, and finisher RW... rinse, repeat. This is a common template, but I'd argue that it makes it easier to game-plan against such a team.

On Winnipeg's first line, there is no set "digger/corner battler," ALL THREE forwards are capable of winning corner-battles. Bill Cook (like Bossy) is the primary choice for finishing, but the Winnipeg first line forwards are all very good to elite passers, as well.

Windsor's primary goal-scoring threats (as stated above) are RWs- Bossy, Heatley, MacKay. Two of Winnipeg's primary scoring-threat Wingers are at LW [Northcott & M. Tkachuk]. More difficult to systematize a defense when the credible points of attack vary like that.

Defense and cohesion of Line 4 for the Falcons is understated- Tkachuk is responsible defensively, Phil Watson is good to very good (in addition to being another RH option for face-offs that Windsor doesn't have), and if I read anything negative about Dan Bain's all-ice game, it'll be the first time.

I knew that Eddie Shore's regular season PIM's trended generally downward, suggesting an improvement in discipline with age and maturity. I was relieved to see that this pattern also mostly held true in the playoffs. The man probably logged more ice-time than anyone else in his era when healthy, so I don't know if the number of times he was third place in a playoff matchup in PIM's is material to this series.

Credit where credit is due... Beliveau for the Spitfires is the best forward on either team. He does fit Bossy well, and Bossy's best case for putting his nose out in front of Bill Cook is the the playoff cred. That said, because Cook's a multi-dimensional threat, he's more suitable to being extra-shifted than Bossy, should it come to that.