Speculation: Fix SJ

[Junohockeyfan]

Vlasics issue is that he doesnt try, and doesnt focus on the correct parts of his game. He can still skate and think just fine if he wants to. If you think im really going to have the debate with the guy whos obsessed with hating on Vlasic you are wrong.

He doesn’t try?? LOL
Vlasic’s mileage is catching up to him. Many articles document this. It’s a significant decline from his former elite defensive play.

I don’t hate Vlasic - I hate SJ fans that ignore his decline and speculate that the Habs would take his nuclear contract based on a baseless blog.

 

[thrillermiller89]

If we retool, this might be the most plausible way to do it...

2020-2021 Season = $17.4 million in space

(Shooting on the high end here)
Labanc = $4mil
Jumbo = $2mil
A number 6 and 7 defenseman = $2mil max
A top 6 forward (maybe Granlund?) = $5mil
Back up goalie = $1mil

Meier-Couture-Granlund
Kane-Hertl-Labanc
Gregor-Thornton-Gambrell
Sorensen-True-Blichfield
Kellman

Vlasic-EK
Simek-Burns
Ferraro - 6th D
7th D

Jones
Back up G

 

[themelkman]

He doesn’t try?? LOL
Vlasic’s mileage is catching up to him. Many articles document this. It’s a significant decline from his former elite defensive play.

I don’t hate Vlasic - I hate SJ fans that ignore his decline and speculate that the Habs would take his nuclear contract based on a baseless blog.

Literally look at the regular season vs playoffs. Why was he insane in the 2019 playoffs? If he had no ability anymore that couldnt happen

 

[Junohockeyfan]

Literally look at the regular season vs playoffs. Why was he insane in the 2019 playoffs? If he had no ability anymore that couldnt happen

Declining ability. Looks at this season’s 70 games. He is not the same player.

 

[themelkman]

Declining ability. Looks at this season’s 70 games. He is not the same player.

He was just as bad last regular season. Explain to me how that works.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

He was just as bad last regular season. Explain to me how that works.

when you suck in the majority of games and are good in a few. It means you are inconsistent and you generally suck.

His performance is measured by the whole and not by a subset. He’s not on his elc contract where Flashes potential are considered.

Which contracts will haunt the Sharks? This article speculates on whether Vlasic is the worst contract in the league!!!! "Their findings concluded that Sharks defender Marc-Edouard Vlasic’s contract is ... well, it’s basically the worst. Not basically. It’s the worst."

 

[Junohockeyfan]

@themelkman , an argument centered around "When he cares he is great. When he doesn't care he is terrible. Therefore, he is great in skill and ability." Is the worst argument you can make for a player's decline.

These two charts depict Vlasic's decline. In 2015/2016 he was elite. In 2019-2020 he's trash.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

@themelkman , an argument centered around "When he cares he is great. When he doesn't care he is terrible. Therefore, he is great in skill and ability." Is the worst argument you can make for a player's decline.

These two charts depict Vlasic's decline. In 2015/2016 he was elite. In 2019-2020 he's trash.

The conclusion you've come to isn't wrong but you can do better than raw on-ice heat maps comparing a player on a defensive juggernaut and a player on a terrible defensive team.

 

[thrillermiller89]

The conclusion you've come to isn't wrong but you can do better than raw on-ice heat maps comparing a player on a defensive juggernaut and a player on a terrible defensive team.

^ This.

While I'll acknowledge that the chart is quite telling, it only tells half the story.

Before Deboer, the team ran a heavy defensive scheme which vlasic thrived in because it suited his skill set.

Fast forward to Deboer and you can gradually see his decline because of the offensive tempo style Deboer ran. Deboer's system didn't do any favors for the D and G.

 

[themelkman]

The conclusion you've come to isn't wrong but you can do better than raw on-ice heat maps comparing a player on a defensive juggernaut and a player on a terrible defensive team.

Im not even trying to say Vlasic is great or even good. Im just saying he isnt a train wreck on the ice, and has the capability to be much better than he has been in the future.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

^ This.

While I'll acknowledge that the chart is quite telling, it only tells half the story.

Before Deboer, the team ran a heavy defensive scheme which vlasic thrived in because it suited his skill set.

Fast forward to Deboer and you can gradually see his decline because of the offensive tempo style Deboer ran. Deboer's system didn't do any favors for the D and G.

The first picture is literally from a season where DeBoer was coach. DeBoer is not a valid scapegoat here. Vlasic just f***ing sucks and he has for two years now.

Im not even trying to say Vlasic is great or even good. Im just saying he isnt a train wreck on the ice, and has the capability to be much better than he has been in the future.

Well, I would disagree with the first part. He has been a train wreck on the ice for the better portion of two seasons now. I agree his track record and his amazing playoff performance that was sandwiched in between those two terrible regular seasons suggests that he might have the capability to be better in the future, but you can't just pretend that negates what he has been for two years, and that's f***ing terrible. All of the evidence supports this.

 

[Dr Quincy]

Literally look at the regular season vs playoffs. Why was he insane in the 2019 playoffs? If he had no ability anymore that couldnt happen

He was insane because he's a career 5% shooter who shot 11% in a small sample size that would be unsustainable.

And if was just a "He only cares in the playoffs" issue, then when you take out last year, his career playoff shooting % is 2%. Shooting 5x above his playoff career avg explains it. Luck. And if he didnt care in the other playoff years and didnt care in regular seasons... you aren't exactly selling him.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Would SJ take on some shorter term contracts that are not negative value players / more depth in order to get rid of the long term ones. At the same time moving out one of their better players as a thank you?

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

He was insane because he's a career 5% shooter who shot 11% in a small sample size that would be unsustainable.

And if was just a "He only cares in the playoffs" issue, then when you take out last year, his career playoff shooting % is 2%. Shooting 5x above his playoff career avg explains it. Luck. And if he didnt care in the other playoff years and didnt care in regular seasons... you aren't exactly selling him.

Vlasic being insane in last year's playoff has nothing to do with shooting percentages.

He was stapled exclusively to top competition and found himself well above the pack in quality shot shares. I don't suspect fans are referencing point or goal totals (he had 3 f***ing goals!) when they talk about his excellence in the playoffs.

 

[Dr Quincy]

^ This.

While I'll acknowledge that the chart is quite telling, it only tells half the story.

Before Deboer, the team ran a heavy defensive scheme which vlasic thrived in because it suited his skill set.

Fast forward to Deboer and you can gradually see his decline because of the offensive tempo style Deboer ran. Deboer's system didn't do any favors for the D and G.

Coaching and style is for sure a huge part. As is overall decline in Fs D ability between those seasons.

 

[themelkman]

He was insane because he's a career 5% shooter who shot 11% in a small sample size that would be unsustainable.

And if was just a "He only cares in the playoffs" issue, then when you take out last year, his career playoff shooting % is 2%. Shooting 5x above his playoff career avg explains it. Luck. And if he didnt care in the other playoff years and didnt care in regular seasons... you aren't exactly selling him.

Im not worried about Vlasics shooting. His shutdown ability has always been his game, and it was very good during the 2019 playoffs.

 

[Dr Quincy]

Vlasic being insane in last year's playoff has nothing to do with shooting percentages.

View attachment 351616

He was stapled exclusively to top competition and found himself well above the pack in quality shot shares. I don't suspect fans are referencing point or goal totals (he had 3 f***ing goals!) when they talk about his excellence in the playoffs.

His 3 ****ing goals were 50% of his career postseason goals scored, so when we are talking "insane" yeah I do think that's part at what the other poster was using.

His possession numbers were "good" but I wouldnt categorize them as "insane".

And knowing you, I know you don't count a small sample size of 18 games to be significant when compared to the last 150 regular season games. No matter what stat you want to use for those 18 games.

 

[Dr Quincy]

Im not worried about Vlasics shooting. His shutdown ability has always been his game, and it was very good during the 2019 playoffs.

It's absolutely been his bread and butter. But he isn't what he was. And what he is, isn't worth his contract.

Not saying he's useless, but just not an attractive asset given most team's cap situations.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

Im not even trying to say Vlasic is great or even good. Im just saying he isnt a train wreck on the ice, and has the capability to be much better than he has been in the future.

LOL

 

[Junohockeyfan]

It's absolutely been his bread and butter. But he isn't what he was. And what he is, isn't worth his contract.

Not saying he's useless, but just not an attractive asset given most team's cap situations.

See article below. It speculates and then concludes that Vlasic has the worst contract in the NHL right now.
Which contracts will haunt the Sharks?

What's even worse - he has a NMC!

He is completely immovable given his decline, nuclear contract, the flat-cap and his NMC. Sharks should consider buying him out in a year or 2.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

His 3 ****ing goals were 50% of his career postseason goals scored, so when we are talking "insane" yeah I do think that's part at what the other poster was using.

His possession numbers were "good" but I wouldnt categorize them as "insane".

And knowing you, I know you don't count a small sample size of 18 games to be significant when compared to the last 150 regular season games. No matter what stat you want to use for those 18 games.

I am honestly shocked here because while I don't always agree with you, I've always known you to be fairly reasonable and not to walk into threads making up insane straw man arguments in order to hit people with a "gotcha", but I am really confused by what you are doing here. I really, really doubt that anybody pumping the tires of Vlasic's 2019 playoff performance had his 3 f***ing goals in 18 games in mind, and even the guy that you initially responded to has now clarified that he doesn't care about Vlasic's shooting ability. It's the last thing that anybody cares about and I think you know that.

Before I address the sample size on those possession numbers, let me be clear that they are unequivocally insane. Among the 163 skaters who played at least 100 5-on-5 minutes, Vlasic ranked 5th in RelTM xG+/-/60. Among these same skaters, he ranked 59th in 5-on-5 on-ice xGF%. His on-ice xG shares were 64th percentile and his relative xG shares were in the 97th percentile while being stapled exclusively to top competition. His on-ice xGF% was 2.35% higher than that of the 2nd best player on his own team. That is insane. And this isn't just statistics either; the eye test supports that Vlasic was insane in those playoffs, and I suspect that's actually what most Sharks fans are using to decide that his performance was insane, and not 3 f***ing goals in 18 games.

I don't think that his sample size of 18 playoff games outweighs the sample of the last 150 regular season games. That's why, throughout this thread and every other thread where Vlasic's name comes up, I am the first one telling Sharks fans that he is f***ing terrible, that two seasons of terrible play aren't cancelled out by one great playoffs, that it doesn't matter what he can do if he doesn't actually do it. However, it's good to be accurate on both ends of things, and his playoff performance was indisputably dominant.

 

[themelkman]

It's absolutely been his bread and butter. But he isn't what he was. And what he is, isn't worth his contract.

Not saying he's useless, but just not an attractive asset given most team's cap situations.

I agree. I only argue with that guy because half his posts are about how Vlasic is the worst player in the league and how much he hates him. Its seriously like a personal vendetta

 

[Dr Quincy]

I agree. I only argue with that guy because half his posts are about how Vlasic is the worst player in the league and how much he hates him. Its seriously like a personal vendetta

He's not the worst player in the league and not even the worst D contract in the league. Seabrook AINEC.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

He's not the worst player in the league and not even the worst D contract in the league. Seabrook AINEC.

Vlasic has 6 more years at 7M
Seabrook has 4 more years at 6.9M

Seabrook is on LTIR.

Both are bad, Vlasic's contract is arguably worse due to the duration.

 

[thrillermiller89]

The first picture is literally from a season where DeBoer was coach. DeBoer is not a valid scapegoat here. Vlasic just f***ing sucks and he has for two years now.



Well, I would disagree with the first part. He has been a train wreck on the ice for the better portion of two seasons now. I agree his track record and his amazing playoff performance that was sandwiched in between those two terrible regular seasons suggests that he might have the capability to be better in the future, but you can't just pretend that negates what he has been for two years, and that's f***ing terrible. All of the evidence supports this.

Guess you missed the part where I said after Deboer entered, Vlasic gradually declined. I'm fully aware the first chart was during Deboer's first year.