Confirmed with Link: Ferhavary re-signs: 3 years @ $2.675 mil per year

[ovikovy817]

RFA or UFA after ?

 

[Hivemind]

RFA or UFA after ?

RFA

 

[twabby]

23 year-old defenseman? I mean yeah, I do expect him to take some big steps forward. And why not? There have been numerous young home-grown guys who did precisely that but the Caps let them walk before they blossomed.

Siegenthaler showed way more in his time in DC than Fehervary has shown to date:





The discussion about how defenders typically age has already been had and I’m clearly on a different side than most people here. I don’t anticipate much more improvement because the fact is most D don’t improve much after their early 20s, as measured by WAR stats.

I could be wrong about Fehervary’s trajectory, but I see no reason to count him as an exception to the general trend.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Siegenthaler showed way more in his time in DC than Fehervary has shown to date:





The discussion about how defenders typically age has already been had and I’m clearly on a different side than most people here. I don’t anticipate much more improvement because the fact is most D don’t improve much after their early 20s, as measured by WAR stats.

I could be wrong about Fehervary’s trajectory, but I see no reason to count him as an exception to the general trend.

I don't put a lot of stock in WAR stats. I had a guy in the history forum show me that Ovechkin was a significantly better player in 2016 than he was in 2009 according to WAR stats. The data appeared to be solid, and he was drawing wildly stupid conclusions from it.

Seems to me a lot of that is reflecting the team - which for the Capitals was significantly better in 2018-20 than 2023.

 

[Marshall]

RFA or UFA after ?

RFA.

 

[OV Rocks]

I initially thought about Siegenthaler too but I wonder if his career trajectory is closer to Orlov.

I think Fehervary was asked to do a lot, first pairing defenseman, playing PK, 20 minutes a night at 23. Orlov at 22 was 19:30, 24 was 16:00 a night, and 25 was 19:30 a night.

This season will be huge for him, can he step up and own that 1LD spot. If he can home run for the next 3 years. If he is more apt to play 2nd pairing time that is also not terrible for the contract- although not great for the team as a whole.

Seems low risk high reward potential.

 

[twabby]

I initially thought about Siegenthaler too but I wonder if his career trajectory is closer to Orlov.

I think Fehervary was asked to do a lot, first pairing defenseman, playing PK, 20 minutes a night at 23. Orlov at 22 was 19:30, 24 was 16:00 a night, and 25 was 19:30 a night.

This season will be huge for him, can he step up and own that 1LD spot. If he can home run for the next 3 years. If he is more apt to play 2nd pairing time that is also not terrible for the contract- although not great for the team as a whole.

Seems low risk high reward potential.

I dont know that the Orlov comparison is really apt either. Orlov was another guy who stepped in and proved immediately that he was an impactful player:

Orlov's 12-13 season is best ignored due to a very small sample size (5 games), but his 11-12, 13-14, and 15-16 seasons were all well above replacement while Fehervary's first two full seasons were at or below replacement level:

There are examples of players who have shown legitimate improvement from their early 20s. Rasmus Dahlin is the one prominent example I can think of off the top of my head. But again I don't see a reason to believe Fehervary is going to be like Dahlin rather than the other Rasmus (Ristolainen), who has proven in big roles and small roles that he's not very good despite being a physical presence and a decent skater.

I think the Rasmus Sandin (so many Rasmuses) is a much better bet to follow the Orlov path given his results to date and playing style. He's a guy I think should be a candidate to lock up long term after this season if he does as well as I expect him to do.

 

[4thTierSport]

I don't put a lot of stock in WAR stats. I had a guy in the history forum show me that Ovechkin was a significantly better player in 2016 than he was in 2009 according to WAR stats. The data appeared to be solid, and he was drawing wildly stupid conclusions from it.

Seems to me a lot of that is reflecting the team - which for the Capitals was significantly better in 2018-20 than 2023.

Seig also wasn’t pulling 1st pairing duties from what I remember either.

Kind of wild to hold the pile of shit that was the 2023 defense against a young D. By no means saying he is the second coming, but to say there is little potential is wild. Might as well just post “because I said so” if you’re throwing around numbers without context.

 

[Random schmoe]

So each of Fehervary's last 3 seasons were at or below replacement level according to one source, while another had him around 60th percentile in WAR last season?

 

[Kalopsia]

Siegenthaler showed way more in his time in DC than Fehervary has shown to date:





The discussion about how defenders typically age has already been had and I’m clearly on a different side than most people here. I don’t anticipate much more improvement because the fact is most D don’t improve much after their early 20s, as measured by WAR stats.

I could be wrong about Fehervary’s trajectory, but I see no reason to count him as an exception to the general trend.

I'm curious, what do those models think of Siegenthaler's play since he's been in a shutdown role for the Devils? From what I've seen of the models, it seems like they're really harsh on guys who play the toughest minutes (particularly when they're on bad teams) while inflating the numbers for guys who get sheltered third pairing minutes (particularly when they're on good teams). I know the models claim to adjust for quality of competition, but it's really hard to adjust for a variable that's at dependent on the thing you're trying to measure. You basically need to have guys getting sheltered minutes and tough minutes at different times in the season to see what happens to their numbers, but most guys spend the whole year in the same role. There's other things that go into it too that I don't think the models account for, like how much of a player's time/energy is being spent PKing.

Anyway, even if you're right that Fehervary's peaked, I think the value on this contract is fine. The most uncharitable evaluation you could give of him is that he's a guy who can play a shutdown role and not get absolutely caved in. You're not going to get a guy that any NHL coach would trust to deploy that way for league minimum. Look at the contracts for Luke Schenn (3x2.75M), Radko Gudas (3x4M), Justin Holl (3x3.4M), Scott Mayfield (7x3.5M), Ian Cole (1x3M), Carson Soucy (3x3.25M). If you want a cheap ~1Mish guy you're looking at a Marc Staal or Travis Hamonic, that caliber of player, vets on their way out of the league.

 

[twabby]

I'm curious, what do those models think of Siegenthaler's play since he's been in a shutdown role for the Devils? From what I've seen of the models, it seems like they're really harsh on guys who play the toughest minutes (particularly when they're on bad teams) while inflating the numbers for guys who get sheltered third pairing minutes (particularly when they're on good teams). I know the models claim to adjust for quality of competition, but it's really hard to adjust for a variable that's at dependent on the thing you're trying to measure. You basically need to have guys getting sheltered minutes and tough minutes at different times in the season to see what happens to their numbers, but most guys spend the whole year in the same role. There's other things that go into it too that I don't think the models account for, like how much of a player's time/energy is being spent PKing.

Anyway, even if you're right that Fehervary's peaked, I think the value on this contract is fine. The most uncharitable evaluation you could give of him is that he's a guy who can play a shutdown role and not get absolutely caved in. You're not going to get a guy that any NHL coach would trust to deploy that way for league minimum. Look at the contracts for Luke Schenn (3x2.75M), Radko Gudas (3x4M), Justin Holl (3x3.4M), Scott Mayfield (7x3.5M), Ian Cole (1x3M), Carson Soucy (3x3.25M). If you want a cheap ~1Mish guy you're looking at a Marc Staal or Travis Hamonic, that caliber of player, vets on their way out of the league.

GAR is higher on Siegenthaler than xGAR, but both have him solidly above replacement since taking over shutdown duties.

I don’t subscribe to JFresh any more (dropped it after the draft) but here’s a tweet from last summer, a year after taking over shutdown duties:



Even Orlov rated extremely well in 2016-17. He was on the sheltered pairing with Nate Schmidt for most of 15-16 before moving up to shutdown duties in 16–17.

As I mentioned I would have considered Caleb Jones as a higher upside option than Fehervary. I doubt he’s going to come in at much more than a million or two for a short term deal.

It’s not the end of the world, especially if they are tanking this year. No harm seeing if Fehervary can improve if there’s no expectation of competing, I guess. I just don’t see any value in the contract. You’d like to get RFAs at a bargain and I don’t see this as a bargain. Maybe he can prove me wrong!

 

[Hivemind]

Anyway, even if you're right that Fehervary's peaked, I think the value on this contract is fine. The most uncharitable evaluation you could give of him is that he's a guy who can play a shutdown role and not get absolutely caved in. You're not going to get a guy that any NHL coach would trust to deploy that way for league minimum. Look at the contracts for Luke Schenn (3x2.75M), Radko Gudas (3x4M), Justin Holl (3x3.4M), Scott Mayfield (7x3.5M), Ian Cole (1x3M), Carson Soucy (3x3.25M). If you want a cheap ~1Mish guy you're looking at a Marc Staal or Travis Hamonic, that caliber of player, vets on their way out of the league.

Twabs already responded to the first half of the post, but my general comment is more with this half. The contract you're comparing Fehervary's to are UFA deals. Fehervary was an RFA, and an RFA without arbitration rights at that. The comparable contracts among other young defensemen usually involve superior offensive/boxcar statistics to Fehervary. Fever really didn't have much leverage here, yet he still got a solid payday for someone with 2 years of pro experience and essentially no offensive impact. Adam Boqvist is the closest comparable (3x $2.6AAV signed last season), but he had 3 years of NHL experience and was coming off of a 22 point in 52 game season.

It's not a massive difference, but I was expecting something more like Nico Hague's (3x $2.294AAV for Vegas in 2022) or Henri Jokiharju's (3x $2.5M in 2021) deals. This contract is by no means a deal breaker, I'm just not sure what Fehervary has done to warrant being near the top of his peer group.


(Not directly related - but when browsing some contracts for this post - a lot of Fehervary's peer group is already on their second, or sometimes third, team. Boqvist and Jokiharju already mentioned, but also Ethan Bear, Alex Romanov, Philippe Myers, and Jake Bean. Interpret as you will)

 

[RedRocking]

I'm curious, what do those models think of Siegenthaler's play since he's been in a shutdown role for the Devils? From what I've seen of the models, it seems like they're really harsh on guys who play the toughest minutes (particularly when they're on bad teams) while inflating the numbers for guys who get sheltered third pairing minutes (particularly when they're on good teams). I know the models claim to adjust for quality of competition, but it's really hard to adjust for a variable that's at dependent on the thing you're trying to measure. You basically need to have guys getting sheltered minutes and tough minutes at different times in the season to see what happens to their numbers, but most guys spend the whole year in the same role. There's other things that go into it too that I don't think the models account for, like how much of a player's time/energy is being spent PKing.

Anyway, even if you're right that Fehervary's peaked, I think the value on this contract is fine. The most uncharitable evaluation you could give of him is that he's a guy who can play a shutdown role and not get absolutely caved in. You're not going to get a guy that any NHL coach would trust to deploy that way for league minimum. Look at the contracts for Luke Schenn (3x2.75M), Radko Gudas (3x4M), Justin Holl (3x3.4M), Scott Mayfield (7x3.5M), Ian Cole (1x3M), Carson Soucy (3x3.25M). If you want a cheap ~1Mish guy you're looking at a Marc Staal or Travis Hamonic, that caliber of player, vets on their way out of the league.

Yea, the price is perfectly fine for just a replacement level 3rd pairing D - particularly for ages 23-26, where we still don’t know what he’ll turn into. The problem is the team has three (and now four with JE) 3LDs. Someone has to step up - be it Fever, Sandin, or AA.

Fever has all the tools, but hasn’t been able to put them together with any consistency. Remains to be seen if his hockey IQ and defensive awareness will improve. Last year he was jerked around with Irwin, Mcllrath, and AA - often playing on his offside.

We’ll see what Love is able to do with him and the other youngsters. Sandin is clearly gifted offensively, but is a black hole defensively. I liked what I saw of AA last year - if he can stay healthy, he still has a lot of upside.

The main downside of this signing, imo, is that they could have used Fever as a part of a trade for the top 6. Though, there’s no reason to believe he has great value around the league.

 

[Kalopsia]

GAR is higher on Siegenthaler than xGAR, but both have him solidly above replacement since taking over shutdown duties.

I don’t subscribe to JFresh any more (dropped it after the draft) but here’s a tweet from last summer, a year after taking over shutdown duties:

Even Orlov rated extremely well in 2016-17. He was on the sheltered pairing with Nate Schmidt for most of 15-16 before moving up to shutdown duties in 16–17.

As I mentioned I would have considered Caleb Jones as a higher upside option than Fehervary. I doubt he’s going to come in at much more than a million or two for a short term deal.

It’s not the end of the world, especially if they are tanking this year. No harm seeing if Fehervary can improve if there’s no expectation of competing, I guess. I just don’t see any value in the contract. You’d like to get RFAs at a bargain and I don’t see this as a bargain. Maybe he can prove me wrong!

Fair enough, I remember reading that Siegs was struggling and was healthy scratched a few times around mid-season, but I guess the models didn't agree.

I think Caleb Jones is a decent player who'll probably outperform his contract for whoever signs him, but he's a more offensively oriented guy who's never been asked to play anything close to the minutes Fehervary's getting. Depending on what he signs for I think he could've been a good alternative to Edmundson, but trading Fehervary and slotting Jones in as his replacement while Sandin and Alexeyev are the other LD was never going to happen.

Twabs already responded to the first half of the post, but my general comment is more with this half. The contract you're comparing Fehervary's to are UFA deals. Fehervary was an RFA, and an RFA without arbitration rights at that. The comparable contracts among other young defensemen usually involve superior offensive/boxcar statistics to Fehervary. Fever really didn't have much leverage here, yet he still got a solid payday for someone with 2 years of pro experience and essentially no offensive impact. Adam Boqvist is the closest comparable (3x $2.6AAV signed last season), but he had 3 years of NHL experience and was coming off of a 22 point in 52 game season.

It's not a massive difference, but I was expecting something more like Nico Hague's (3x $2.294AAV for Vegas in 2022) or Henri Jokiharju's (3x $2.5M in 2021) deals. This contract is by no means a deal breaker, I'm just not sure what Fehervary has done to warrant being near the top of his peer group.


(Not directly related - but when browsing some contracts for this post - a lot of Fehervary's peer group is already on their second, or sometimes third, team. Boqvist and Jokiharju already mentioned, but also Ethan Bear, Alex Romanov, Philippe Myers, and Jake Bean. Interpret as you will)

I think the answer is that he's been given more responsibility than any of them. Here's the per game stats of Fehervary, Hague, and Jokiharju over the two years preceding those contracts.

Player	GP	P/G	ES TOI/G	PK TOI/G	TOI/G	OZs%
Fehervary	146	0.23	18:03	1:42	19:49	48.8
Hague	104	0.30	15:45	1:14	17:20	56.5
Jokiharju	115	0.29	16:29	1:03	17:41	50.5

Boqvist is much more of an offensive defenseman, getting ~60% OZ starts and no PK time, so he's not a great comp. Fehervary's also way more physical than any of these guys, but ultimately I think it mostly comes down to the deployment he handled. The more I look into his numbers for this past season the more I realize how unusual it was (I'm also kind of in awe of how Jensen seems to look good to the models while getting the same minutes). Only 14 guys last year played 18+ at ES and 1.5+ on PK per night with <45% OZ starts across at least 60 games. In ascending order of OZ%: Parayko (30), Peeke (25), Jensen (32), Leddy (32), Savard (32), Fehervary (23), Pelech (28), Mayfield (30), Pulock (28), Gavrikov (27), McDonagh (34), Nurse (28), Myers (33), and Ferraro (24). Fehervary's the youngest of the group by more than a year and one of only three who're younger than 27. That's really what sets him apart - we can argue over whether on not he deserves it, but he earned the complete trust of a notoriously untrusting coaching staff and as a result he's been thrust into a much more difficult position than virtually all of his peers. I think you have to grade his performance on a curve to take that into account.

 

[g00n]

fwiw maybe we should spell his name correctly in the thread title?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

fwiw maybe we should spell his name correctly in the thread title?

View attachment 726472

Mad disrespect is rampant!

 

[Neil Racki]

Fehervary is decent/solid in his own zone. When he goes back to retrieve a contested puck in the corner or behind the net I trust him. Trust him to make a solid/conservative play moving the puck out of his own zone.

He's steady to me. Nothing spectacular but hes steady/consistent/defense oriented.

Hes good enough to be in this league for 12 years but not flashy or plus to require a payday.

Win win imo

 

[SherVaughn30]

Buying out Mantha is an awful decision that costs the Caps more this year and next year, which is why BMac has not done it.

Let's start with the same premises, so there's no confusion. Mantha's contract is a cap hit of 5.7m for 1 year, with a salary of 6.5m. BMac has surveyed the rest of the NHL's GMs, and none of them are interested in acquiring Mantha at full salary for any positive value. There's some consideration to the cost of his replacement on the roster, but let's ignore that for the moment.

A Mantha buyout pays him 4.333m to go away, at the cost of 1.366m on the cap this year, and 2.166m next year. Without replacing his roster slot, you save 4.333m on the cap this year at the cost of 2.166m next year.

At the other end of the spectrum, let's assume a fully retained Mantha would be able to be offloaded for mimimal cost/return - much like Duclair, Johansen, K. Hayes. In that scenario, you have 2.85m in dead cap, saving 2.85m in cap with no 2nd year costs. Since all of his contract is salary, that fully retained portion would be 3.25m, or a million less than a buyout.

The breakeven point where the buyout and the retention cost the same amount of cap space this year is ~25% - if you're able to retain less than that, trading Mantha saves more this year. We've already established trading Mantha at full retention costs less than a buyout. Why are you encumbering your cap next year for 2 million, and costing yourself an extra million dollars, to create at most 1.5m extra cap space this year?

I'm just curious, did you factor in the salary cap will go up $4 million after the ending of next season? And the year after that $4 million increase, it will go up more than just $1 million again. Compared to the other teams that bought out their player(s), $1.3 million and $2 million both kept on the Caps salary cap, is far less than a good deal of other teams.

 

[twabby]

Dom’s model on the contract. It’s “fair” but for a first RFA contract you’d hope for more than a 50% shot of a player living up to it.

Contrast that with another recent RFA signing:

Higher probability of successfully living up to the deal for Samberg.

Again it’s not the end of the world but those extra hundreds thousand dollars add up. We all see how close they are to the cap this year and how desperate they are to shed salary.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

View attachment 726640

Dom’s model on the contract. It’s “fair” but for a first RFA contract you’d hope for more than a 50% shot of a player living up to it.

Contrast that with another recent RFA signing:

View attachment 726642

Higher probability of successfully living up to the deal for Samberg.

Again it’s not the end of the world but those extra hundreds thousand dollars add up. We all see how close they are to the cap this year and how desperate they are to shed salary.

I was wondering how you were going to come to terms with Dom saying that it was a very fair deal and you did not disappoint, good sir.

 

[twabby]

I was wondering how you were going to come to terms with Dom saying that it was a very fair deal and you did not disappoint, good sir.

I mean it is fair. I said that in my post. It’s not a bargain, unlike many first RFA contracts. I don’t know how I can be clearer.

 

[HeyMattyB]

"Fair"

 

[Vilica]

I'm just curious, did you factor in the salary cap will go up $4 million after the ending of next season? And the year after that $4 million increase, it will go up more than just $1 million again. Compared to the other teams that bought out their player(s), $1.3 million and $2 million both kept on the Caps salary cap, is far less than a good deal of other teams.

We should probably move further discussion to the Roster thread, since this isn't about Fehervary, but as a final answer, yes, I'm aware of the cap increase, and I'm not interested in encumbering any of it with a buyout. Just let the contract expire, and don't compound the mistake made in trading for Mantha by extending the cap implications beyond this year.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

"Fair"

Translated…..”I don”t f’ing like it”…..

 

[4thTierSport]

Translated…..”I don”t f’ing like it”…..

“Let me dig for more numbers with little to no context”.