Expansion to 36, which city is number 36?

[timekeep]

But let's look at that AZ to UT "off-ramp". It cost Ryan Smith $1.2 billion dollars.

Relocation is not some secret way to get a bargain-priced team - because that will only reduce franchise value.

Said it before, I'll say it again - if PKP had $1.2 bil to spend the Coyotes would be in Quebec City, not Utah. After all Quebec City has an almost-new state of the art NHL arena and a long history of hockey.

But (as I theorize) PKP doesn't have $1.2 bil, and thus Quebec City was nowhere to be seen.

The challenge for Quebec is the corporate customers as well, just like Winnipeg.

 

[nhlfan79]

He's had that comment on copy/paste and has been shot down with no returning reply a million times. He's just wanting a reaction. Ignore.

Yep, I should've been clearer that my comment was not feeding the troll so much as me making an optimistic point that comments like that now have an inevitable finite shelf life, finally.

 

[timekeep]

I tend to come at this from the other direction. Not that billionaires are infallible of course, but for me the discussion of markets is basically a matter of “where would a successful businessperson who could afford a team be interested in putting one.”

For example, Warren Buffett could easily afford an NHL team. If he were interested, would he really be interested in putting one in Omaha? So I look up the various factors that would make it a viable market and I come to the conclusion that, no… he would not.

You do absolutely have to have an owner who can afford to buy and run a team. It’s one of the 4 legs of the expansion table… market size, arena, growth potential being the other three. 100% you need all 4. But for me, the ownership component is the least interesting one to discuss.

I agree with most of your post, the only part is last part about ownership. That just might be the 'interesting' part of ownership. I think it is still as equally as important if not the most important. Look at Arizona, had the potential, even had the arena, definitely had the market size. But never had a good owner. Same can be said for Atlanta, the arena is beautiful and located downtown.

Maybe the owner is interesting but they have to have the money and commitment.

 

[timekeep]

Totally disagree.

If you go back, what, 24 months, SLC was barely ever mentioned as a NHL destination. I mean it was discussed, but way back on the list. So what happened? Ryan Smith bought the Jazz, bought Real Salt Lake, and suddenly wanted to buy an NH franchise. The market size and arena didn't change (really disagree about "growth potential - these guys aren't looking at 20+ year timelines).

And with the price being $1.2 bil, there's fewer people who can afford an NHL franchise - and of those fewer still who would want one. You mentioned Warren Buffet - no sign he'd want one. He's notoriously frugal and only buys businesses he understands.

So you can extoll the virtues of Virginia Beach, sing paeans to Louisville, or talk about how groovy Austin would be - none of it matters unless you have an ownership group in place.

I'm not certain Bettman and crew care as much about the arena as they do the TV markets. Look what they let Phoenix play in and now SLC. Even Winnipeg. The local owner needs those corporate suite customers and advertisers more than the NHL.

Does it surprise anyone that someone with a big bag of money came along and Bettman made a very quick deal with him. Smith does seem like he is committed and very interested in the NHL.

 

[hammer42]

The only markets I can see for the nfl is Toronto and maybe Mexico city

The NFL . is purely an American League & will never expand outside the USA boarder & here is the reason why first you got Toronto as seen by Buffalo Bills series of pre & regular season games there was failure & did not draw well then you would have to build a new stadium & you have the CFL. enough said Mexico City on the other hand is not quite ready a major league American sports team then you have the thin air to deal with since Mexico City has twice the altitude above sea level as Denver . So in my opinion the only cities can host an NFL. team are St. Louis , San Antonio , San Diego , Orlando , Birmingham , Memphis & Oakland

 

[Yukon Joe]

The NFL . is purely an American League & will never expand outside the USA boarder & here is the reason why first you got Toronto as seen by Buffalo Bills series of pre & regular season games there was failure & did not draw well then you would have to build a new stadium & you have the CFL. enough said Mexico City on the other hand is not quite ready a major league American sports team then you have the thin air to deal with since Mexico City has twice the altitude above sea level as Denver . So in my opinion the only cities can host an NFL. team are St. Louis , San Antonio , San Diego , Orlando , Birmingham , Memphis & Oakland

If you saw an out-of-US expansion for the NFL it would be London first and foremost.

First - just look at the number of games the NFL has already played in London - they've been averaging about 3 per year for several years. The travel and time zone difference is of course quite noticeable - but playing once per week minimizes it to a certain extent.

The Buffalo Bills games in Toronto did very much dim excitement for that marketplace, plus I think to a certain extent the NFL doesn't want to be seen as harming the CFL (though let's be honest - if there was enough money to make they wouldn't care about that). Mexico City might be an option someday and is probably second most likely, but London is clearly the #1 target.

 

[KevFu]

San Diego

I am willing to be we will find and owner there before Phoenix.

I think it SHOULD be Quebec, but the owner has to have the money.

So I think San Diego is far more likely to happen as team #36 than the others who aren't ATL, HOU, PHX.

From a "sports team saturation" standpoint, it's the best pick, as they have MLB and MLS is coming. Compare that to Tampa Bay, which is the same size but with a body of water splitting the geography, and has NFL and MLB instead of MLS.

 

[cheswick]

I personally think you have to look not only at market size, but also if the market is already served by pro sports.

Here's a rough analysis. Ignoring the fact there may be somewhat close markets and ignoring markets already served with an NHL team

Looking at markets on a big 4 basis. Here are the top ten markets where the addition of an NHL team would be the largest pop per big 4 team.
1. San Bernadino
2. Austin
3. Virginia Beach
4. Houston
5. Providence
6. San Diego
7. Orlando
8. Atlanta
9. Lousiville
10. Richmond

When adding MLS and CFL to the mix, top population per big 6 team in the market (including the new nhl team):
1. San Bernadino
2. Virginia Beach
3. Providence
4. San Diego
5. Houston
6. Lousiville
7. Richmond
8. Hartford
9. Phoenix
10. Atlanta

 

[KevFu]

I personally think you have to look not only at market size, but also if the market is already served by pro sports.

Here's a rough analysis. Ignoring the fact there may be somewhat close markets and ignoring markets already served with an NHL team

Looking at markets on a big 4 basis. Here are the top ten markets where the addition of an NHL team would be the largest pop per big 4 team.
1. San Bernadino
2. Austin
3. Virginia Beach
4. Houston
5. Providence
6. San Diego
7. Orlando
8. Atlanta
9. Lousiville
10. Richmond

When adding MLS and CFL to the mix, top population per big 6 team in the market (including the new nhl team):
1. San Bernadino
2. Virginia Beach
3. Providence
4. San Diego
5. Houston
6. Lousiville
7. Richmond
8. Hartford
9. Phoenix
10. Atlanta

I totally agree with the mindset; however you need to adjust for the fact that (a) some of those cities are WITHIN the border limit of existing teams. Providence is off the table for that reason, and San Bernandino is over 50 from LA, but not over 50 from ANA.

The other adjustment that needs to be made is that the revenue required to support an NHL team ($190m USD) vs an NFL ($580m USD), MLB, NBA ($350m each), MLS ($75m), CFL ($20m ? Correct me if I'm wrong there), or any other pro sport is not equal.

When you adjust for the amount of dollars on a per person basis, the financial ability of a market to support an NHL team:

Under $150 per fan.
Hartford
Virginia Beach
Austin
Louisville

$180-$230 per fan
Portland
San Diego
San Antonio
Houston
Atlanta
Quebec City
Phoenix
Sacramento (after the A's leave)

$360+ per fan:
Oklahoma City
Memphis
Birmingham
Indianapolis
Jacksonville
Kansas City
Milwaukee ($575 !)
New Orleans ($815 !!!)


Of course, that says nothing about each market's "demand for hockey" or "arena building potential."

 

[KevFu]

Oh, and that's not to say that that's a "Definitive list" of where the NHL should/shouldn't go.

Because revenue comes from MORE than just fans: TV dollars, sponsorship dollars, etc.

Like, Las Vegas is near the bottom for the NHL markets at $323 because of their relatively low population and having the NFL. But Vegas as a city just has a TON of advertising dollars to capitalize on.

You also have to factor in "secondary markets" for TV, like Houston, Austin or San Antonio would get the others as secondary markets for TV.


The fact is, the more of the same people you have providing that dollars, the more susceptible you are to the ebbs and flows of the team or the economy being bad. So you'd probably rather be in the second tier than Louisville, because even though it's cheaper per person for their 1.4 million, you're not getting the same demand for 18,000 seats as a place with 2.8 million people.

 

[GKJ]

Count the NFL out of that equation. They don't want to do anything that will jeopardize the schedule format they have now, which guarantees each team will play the others at least twice in an 8-year period (once home, once road). The best hope for markets without an NFL team getting pro football (outside of NFL team relocation) is the UFL.

They will break their scheduling matrix in about 12 seconds if they decide it makes enough business sense. They will do anything that makes them money.

On NFL expansion, they don’t have any real growth in terms of the US footprint. Adding teams in St. Louis, San Diego, Utah, whoever, doesn’t really do anything for the league. They weren’t desperate to rush back into LA after they had no teams for 20 years. You’re not really gaining fans there, the people who will watch the NFL in non-NFL markets already do and having a team won’t change that very much, except for whichever fans in San Diego and St. Louis are steadfast in being mad about losing teams. Truth be told, there shouldn’t be a team in Jacksonville since the market is small and the stadium sucks, but the league doesn’t care because it doesn’t matter. At least until whenever Shad Khan decides it’s time for a new stadium, but they could take that team and put it in Alaska if they get the best deal, and the league won’t miss a beat.

The avenue that will take us there is whenever the NFL and the networks decide there is not enough inventory of games to satisfy all of the outlets they want to be on and all the times they want to cover. If they insist on spreading out all of their inventory, eventually the Sunday afternoon windows will devalue, or they will come up short somewhere else, and that will sound the expansion alarms.

 

[Headshot77]

With HOU, ATL, and PHX back in the mix you could then finally add an 8th Canadian franchise without any of the alignment talk getting in the way. Personally I'd go for Hamilton/TOR2 before Quebec City.

 

[Bucky_Hoyt]

All sound like great future relocation targets ;-)

It probably doesn't matter if a franchise is 'newly' created anymore. The going rate is 1.2b and will only go up.

 

[Rpenny]

Owners getting greedy. Product is already watered down enough as is.

Teams in the other pro leagues

NFL 32
NBA 30
MLB 30

I realize the NHL was the last league to expand but they do not have the TV bucks other leagues do. There is a reason why other leagues have such good TV deals. They are more popular than the NHL

 

[GKJ]

Owners getting greedy. Product is already watered down enough as is.

Teams in the other pro leagues

NFL 32
NBA 30
MLB 30

I realize the NHL was the last league to expand but they do not have the TV bucks other leagues do. There is a reason why other leagues have such good TV deals. They are more popular than the NHL

They also are all in more US markets

 

[Lindys Lazy Eye]

It should be Houston. The appetite is there.

 

[Aero 75]

Tillman Fertitta has company trying to bring NHL hockey to Houston according to Gary Bettman. https://www.houstonchronicle.com/te...al/article/hosuton-nhl-expansion-19444117.php

 

[Headshot77]

Owners getting greedy. Product is already watered down enough as is.

Teams in the other pro leagues

NFL 32
NBA 30
MLB 30

I realize the NHL was the last league to expand but they do not have the TV bucks other leagues do. There is a reason why other leagues have such good TV deals. They are more popular than the NHL

The league itself doesn't view it that way. Their spin is that while the NHL has 32 franchises, the fact that they only have 25 in the United States, comprising 22 individual markets, is a major problem for them. If you look at the numbers that way (subtracting the Canada teams and bunching the NY/NJ and LA/ANA teams together) then the totals look like this:

NFL: 30
NBA: 27
MLB: 25 (they also have duplicates in the Bay and Chicago)
NHL: 22

The NFL is the only league that is content and not really undergoing an expansion process. The NBA wants Vegas and Seattle. The MLB wants to get the hell out of Oakland and there's a non-zero chance the White Sox relocate before they also expand by two. The NHL expanding to 36 is honestly them keeping up with the other leagues for presence in the United States. Greedy? Sure that's one way to look at it. They look at it more as a necessity though.

 

[hammer42]

Houston
Hamilton
Kansas City
Cincinnati \ Cleveland

Atlanta - To much of a risk of failure for NHL. to go back there for a 3rd time

Arizona - Unless ownership can strike a deal with the the Phoenix Suns ownership on a shared funding to co tenants of a new arena & I don't see the coyotes coming back if is dose not happen .

Quebec City - they got a nice new arena but Quebec City but it is a small market & I don't think the NHL. wants another small market team even if is low risk market plus the NHL. is already making money off the Nordiques name & merchandise .

 

[saskriders]

I totally agree with the mindset; however you need to adjust for the fact that (a) some of those cities are WITHIN the border limit of existing teams. Providence is off the table for that reason, and San Bernandino is over 50 from LA, but not over 50 from ANA.

The other adjustment that needs to be made is that the revenue required to support an NHL team ($190m USD) vs an NFL ($580m USD), MLB, NBA ($350m each), MLS ($75m), CFL ($20m ? Correct me if I'm wrong there), or any other pro sport is not equal.

When you adjust for the amount of dollars on a per person basis, the financial ability of a market to support an NHL team:

Under $150 per fan.
Hartford
Virginia Beach
Austin
Louisville

$180-$230 per fan
Portland
San Diego
San Antonio
Houston
Atlanta
Quebec City
Phoenix
Sacramento (after the A's leave)

$360+ per fan:
Oklahoma City
Memphis
Birmingham
Indianapolis
Jacksonville
Kansas City
Milwaukee ($575 !)
New Orleans ($815 !!!)


Of course, that says nothing about each market's "demand for hockey" or "arena building potential."

How did you derive these numbers? I am a little uncertain as to what exactly they are.

 

[BasementDweller]

How did you derive these numbers? I am a little uncertain as to what exactly they are.

My guess is that's he summing the total revenue required to sustain the sports teams in that particular market and dividing it by the market's population to get an idea how much each individual would have to fork out annually to make those teams viable.

 

[aqib]

Tillman Fertitta has company trying to bring NHL hockey to Houston according to Gary Bettman. https://www.houstonchronicle.com/te...al/article/hosuton-nhl-expansion-19444117.php

Paywalled

 

[aqib]

If you saw an out-of-US expansion for the NFL it would be London first and foremost.

First - just look at the number of games the NFL has already played in London - they've been averaging about 3 per year for several years. The travel and time zone difference is of course quite noticeable - but playing once per week minimizes it to a certain extent.

The Buffalo Bills games in Toronto did very much dim excitement for that marketplace, plus I think to a certain extent the NFL doesn't want to be seen as harming the CFL (though let's be honest - if there was enough money to make they wouldn't care about that). Mexico City might be an option someday and is probably second most likely, but London is clearly the #1 target.

I don't think the NFL weighs the Bills in Toronto Series as heavily. Toronto is only 2 hours from Buffalo so if you're a Bills fan would pay 3-4x the cost of a Bills game in Buffalo to watch it in Toronto. There are also a few other teams within a 5-6 hour drive. So it's not like London where that's the only access to live NFL games you have. It would be different if it was a Toronto team. Also the failure of the London Monarchs in the World League didn't turn the NFL off London. The Bills in T

 

[Yukon Joe]

I don't think the NFL weighs the Bills in Toronto Series as heavily. Toronto is only 2 hours from Buffalo so if you're a Bills fan would pay 3-4x the cost of a Bills game in Buffalo to watch it in Toronto. There are also a few other teams within a 5-6 hour drive. So it's not like London where that's the only access to live NFL games you have. It would be different if it was a Toronto team. Also the failure of the London Monarchs in the World League didn't turn the NFL off London. The Bills in T

I'm just looking at the NFL's actions - they've played A LOT of games in London, far more than any other non-US market.

I think with the WLAF the NFL concluded that it wasn't just american-style football people wanted to see - it was the NFL. So that's why they didn't worry about the failure of that league. When it came to the Bills in Toronto though that was the real deal, the NFL itself - and ticket sales were poor. Indeed they cancelled the deal early. The last NFL game played in Toronto was way back in 2013 (although there was a one-off preseason game in Winnipeg in 2019).

This is all just a tangent (since this is a hockey board) but I was replying to a poster who said the NFL would never expand outside of the US, talked about Canada and Mexico - but never mentioned the obvious candidate of London.

 

[BMN]

When it came to the Bills in Toronto though that was the real deal, the NFL itself - and ticket sales were poor. Indeed they cancelled the deal early. The last NFL game played in Toronto was way back in 2013 (although there was a one-off preseason game in Winnipeg in 2019).

Whenever I've talked to someone who is pro NFL-in-Toronto, they always defend the attendance of the Bills Toronto series as relatively fine given that "we'd pack the building if it was a team of our own." Which might well be true, but this was when the Bills' long-term prospects in Buffalo were tenuous. I said it at the time and still feel this way with hindsight: Toronto was asked to treat the Bills as "their own" and rejected the premise.

Paywalled

The basic highlights; nothing terribly revelatory...

--- Bettman says that "Tilman isn't the only one who's expressed interest in Houston," but that there's nothing to suggest imminent expansion to the area.
--- Ryan Smith's providing of a thorough timetable was key to Utah being the top choice for relocating the Coyotes roster: "When it reaches that level, then we take a harder look at it."
--- Alluded to Fertitta's recent partnership with Ira Mitzner to bolster his NHL chances.