Speculation: Expansion Draft

[spockBokk]

I'll echo my thoughts from prior threads - Hamilton is gone.

So, with that in mind, I'd prefer to keep 75% of the top 4 together in Slavin, Pesce and Skjei over betting on Bean. Now, I don't think they'd actually protect Skjei over Bean, but just stating my preference. As others have said, Skjei probably will be one of the better D made available for the expansion draft and is very likely the choice. Put simply, I'd rather them play it safe and lose Hamilton and Bean versus losing Hamilton and Skjei.

Of course, this is moot if they keep Hamilton. It's a lot easier absorb the loss of a bonafide top 4 guy in Skjei if you still have 3 other guys in Slavin, Pesce and Hamilton signed long-term. (This also is why I’d keep Skjei over Bean, easier to replace 1 top 4 D than 2)

 

[GoldiFox]

Offer Seattle to expose Bean if they take Gardiner. A Marchessault + Smith gamble. The threat being that Carolina could trade Bean to another team if they want to protect Skjei. Plus that saves Geekie. Then pay for Hamilton and Hakanpaa and find the 3rd pair LHD of their dreams.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Offer Seattle to expose Bean if they take Gardiner. A Marchessault + Smith gamble. The threat being that Carolina could trade Bean to another team if they want to protect Skjei. Plus that saves Geekie. Then pay for Hamilton and Hakanpaa and find the 3rd pair LHD of their dreams.

or we could see who Seattle takes and possibly sell Gardiner to Arizona. They need picks / prospects.

 

[Justshootmore]

The only thing that I hope is that they don't think "We gave up a first for Skjei, so we need to protect him."

I have two scenarios I wouldn't mind:

1. If signing Hamilton after the ED is likely, protect Bean and trade Skjei to someone who can protect him. There should be teams interested if the price is something like a 2nd and a middle prospect. We should be fine with
Slavin - Hamilton
Bean - Pesce

Or we could even go after a UFA, if we can get rid of Gardiner somehow.

2. If Hamilton is gone, we might want to look into some side deal with Seattle. Like offering them Foegele if they pick Gardiner. Not sure if that is legal though, and if that would be enough for Seattle. Though I feel like Gardiner would have some value to a team like Seattle, he is still able to play in the NHL.

 

[spockBokk]

They’re going to get 2 playoff runs out of Skjei. A late 1st about the going rate for a top 4 D with term on his deal at the deadline. So if you look at that way, they’ll get their money’s worth out of him. I don’t think they’d be that worried about protecting him based on what they gave up for him, especially considering they ended up with Jarvis.

I’m more so worried about what the D looks like if they end up losing both he and Hamilton.

 

[MinJaBen]

So I was thinking about the expansion draft and future contracts last night. What do you think about the idea of making a deal with Seattle to expose Nino if they take Gardiner in a trade? That would give Seattle a forward of a caliber they likely won't have access to normally, a guy that we have seen have up and then down years and who we likely can't resign after next year anyway. The deal would clear over $9M in cap space for us and allow us to protect all our young guys and leave us room to resign Dougie and Tro over the next year.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

So I was thinking about the expansion draft and future contracts last night. What do you think about the idea of making a deal with Seattle to expose Nino if they take Gardiner? That would give Seattle a forward of a caliber they likely won't have access to normally, a guy that we have seen have up and then down years and who we likely can't resign after next year anyway. The deal would clear over $9.35M in cap space for us and allow us to protect all our young guys and leave us room to resign Dougie and Tro over the next year.

We could tell Francis we will protect all the small number contracts and expose the higher ones. If he takes Gardiner we will give him Lorentz, Geekie, or Foegele. I doubt Francis jumps on a Nino with Gardiner offer. That 9 million would hurt his ability to milk Tampa, Edmonton, Washington, and Vancouver for everything he can. 5-7.5 million makes that a little easier.

 

[Chrispy]

So I was thinking about the expansion draft and future contracts last night. What do you think about the idea of making a deal with Seattle to expose Nino if they take Gardiner in a trade? That would give Seattle a forward of a caliber they likely won't have access to normally, a guy that we have seen have up and then down years and who we likely can't resign after next year anyway. The deal would clear over $9M in cap space for us and allow us to protect all our young guys and leave us room to resign Dougie and Tro over the next year.

That's an interesting idea. I don't hate it as much as some others, but I wonder if Seattle would go for a single-year rental as sufficient to take Gardiner.

Yes, Nino would be a top line wing for Seattle, without question. And with a good year, he could fetch a good pick at the deadline. But I think Francis would lean toward the pick in hand.

 

[hockeynjune]

Who else feels like this may already be drawn up( in pencil no less) with RF's visit on Mon night?

 

[MinJaBen]

Who else feels like this may already be drawn up( in pencil no less) with RF's visit on Mon night?

What are you referring to?

 

[A Star is Burns]

If Geekie keeps making some of the passes he has, I'd probably just take him if I'm Francis. Seems like a guy that could be ready to step into a big role.

 

[hockeynjune]

Company in the house with a notebook...try to keep a low profile Brady...

What are you referring to?

RF was there Monday

 

[emptyNedder]

The deal would clear over $9M in cap space for us and allow us to protect all our young guys and leave us room to resign Dougie and Tro over the next year.

Signing both would make the window smaller as it would mean at least one and likely two of Aho/Teravainen/Pesce would be lost in 3 years. Svech and Necas are getting new contracts--sure bridge contracts are an option, but eventually some players will leave. I guess it could be Staal, which would create enough cap to re-sign Aho/TT. But not sure even this front office would let Staal walk--more likely they try to entice him to take a team-friendly (maybe 3M) 3-4 year deal to end his career a Cane.
As good as Trocheck has been, if Necas is a future C, then those $ make more sense elsewhere.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Signing both would make the window smaller as it would mean at least one and likely two of Aho/Teravainen/Pesce would be lost in 3 years. Svech and Necas are getting new contracts--sure bridge contracts are an option, but eventually some players will leave. I guess it could be Staal, which would create enough cap to re-sign Aho/TT. But not sure even this front office would let Staal walk--more likely they try to entice him to take a team-friendly (maybe 3M) 3-4 year deal to end his career a Cane.
As good as Trocheck has been, if Necas is a future C, then those $ make more sense elsewhere.

maybe. Their prices, the cap ceiling at that point, and what Dundon wants to spend will determine that.

 

[GoldiFox]

Ideally there will be some guys who buy-in hard and take discounts to be a part of a successful team. But I'm trying to get comfortable with the idea that the Canes are now a talent machine that is going to bring in undervalued assets, significantly boost their production, and watch them go get big paydays with other teams. My heart hopes that Trocheck is in the former group but he is probably playing himself well into the second group.

 

[spockBokk]

I think Francis would want to be generously rewarded to take on Gardiner. I’d think he’d be much more interested in a Bokk, Drury or Gunler type prospect or high pick. I detest the idea of paying assets to be rid of Gardiner, but if it’d only cost a late 1st this year, that’s something to certainly consider...

 

[Ole Gil]

Skjei's the better player, but I'd rather have the 4 million in cap space. If they can somehow get rid of skjei and gardiner, Hamilton would be a much easier fit.

 

[Chrispy]

I think trying to move Gardiner will be an independent move of the expansion draft. Maybe a day after move if Seattle doesn't take a lot of high dollar contracts (or tries to flip a contract), maybe around the draft like the de Haan trade.

 

[MinJaBen]

I think trying to move Gardiner will be an independent move of the expansion draft. Maybe a day after move if Seattle doesn't take a lot of high dollar contracts (or tries to flip a contract), maybe around the draft like the de Haan trade.

I don't understand why you'd do it this way. Francis has the biggest pool of cap of anyone out there, and we have a transaction coming up with him anyway. Seems like it would make sense to try and move any of our higher cap guys that we want Gardiner (maybe Skjei or Nino) at the same time vs. in two transactions with different teams. That, to me, would seem to suggest it would cost more than if you were able to do it all at once with someone who can make the room easily if they want.

 

[Chrispy]

I don't understand why you'd do it this way. Francis has the biggest pool of cap of anyone out there, and we have a transaction coming up with him anyway. Seems like it would make sense to try and move any of our higher cap guys that we want Gardiner (maybe Skjei or Nino) at the same time vs. in two transactions with different teams. That, to me, would seem to suggest it would cost more than if you were able to do it all at once with someone who can make the room easily if they want.

My concern is Francis is going to price gouge as if he's the only game in town.

Looking at the Seattle board, the prices are outrageous. I realize board hyperbole won't be Francis's prices, but I don't want to pay Vegas prices to dump a contract either.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

Lose one of Geekie, Lorentz, Fast, Skjei.

If the price to have Seattle select Gardiner isn't outrageous then sure, explore that but, no point trying to get too cute here. When you're a good team, you have good players. When there's an expansion draft you're gonna lose someone. Just minimize it and move on. We have very good forward depth to replace whoever is selected as well as any UFA's that leave in the offseason.

 

[spockBokk]

Found this interesting from the latest 31 Thoughts:

8. Interesting expansion-draft tidbit told to the Kraken: If they select anyone who has already been paid a July 1 bonus, they must re-pay it to the player’s previous team. Something else to calculate in your mock drafts

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/31-thoughts-tom-wilson-needed-stronger-punishment/sn-amp/

So, if Skjei is indeed the pick, the Kraken would immediately have to pay back his $1M bonus for the 21-22 season, and I imagine, would have to honor his 10 team NTC that kicks in next season as well. I wonder if those 2 things would point Francis more towards a forward...

 

[Lempo]

Found this interesting from the latest 31 Thoughts:

8. Interesting expansion-draft tidbit told to the Kraken: If they select anyone who has already been paid a July 1 bonus, they must re-pay it to the player’s previous team. Something else to calculate in your mock drafts

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/31-thoughts-tom-wilson-needed-stronger-punishment/sn-amp/

So, if Skjei is indeed the pick, the Kraken would immediately have to pay back his $1M bonus for the 21-22 season, and I imagine, would have to honor his 10 team NTC that kicks in next season as well. I wonder if those 2 things would point Francis more towards a forward...

I would have felt that this is pretty obvious thing.

As mock drafts go, the thing is that we don't really know the individually negotiated due dates for the signing bonus of any player.