Speculation: Expansion Draft Discussion

[nine_inch_fang]

Maybe we can consolidate some of this discussion so it's not repeated in all the threads at the same time.

Click to read more...

 

[TrivialCheese]

At this point, I think most of us would be surprised if we did any other than going the 4-4-1 route. The 4 D are all givens, just leaving the forwards. Forsberg and Arvidsson are probably locks for 2 of the forward spots. That leaves 2 spots for Johansen, Duchene, Jarnkrok, and Kunin.

Kunin is probably the only one would be an automatic pick for Seattle if he was exposed just due to age and contract. If Poile is still in charge I would guess he would be protected as well since he gave up assets to acquire him.

With Duchene/Johansen, a lot of it could depend on how the rest of this season plays out. If these guys start to perform down the stretch and in the playoffs, maybe you protect both. As it stands now, I would protect Duchene and leave Johansen unprotected.

Jarnkrok would probably give Seattle the biggest bang for their buck, but he's only under contract for 1 more year. The Kunin/Jarnkrok debate reminds me of the Neal/Jarnkrok debate. Keeping Jarnkrok now would be better short term, but keeping Kunin would be better long term. And maybe Seattle wouldn't even be interested due to the 1 year till UFA.

 

[Scoresberg]

Forsberg, Arvy, Joey and Kunin

Josi, Ellis, Ekholm, Fabbro

Saros

We need to start thinking about the future of this team. It includes Kunin, not guys like Duchene, Jarnkrok or Cousins.

 

[triggrman]

Kunin over Jarkrok?

 

[Predsanddead24]

Kunin over Jarkrok?

Easily. Kunin is young and team controlled while Jarnkrok is not. Jarnkrok isn’t good enough of a player to overcome that.

 

[BigFatCat999]

OK

Yes, Carrier can be picked in the draft.

The number for game is to meet NHL expansion team needs.

Now back to the topic. I played around with the capfriendly expansion draft tool and Seattle will have a ton of defensemen to trade, and one extra 1A goalie. Forward is gonna SUUUUUUCK. They will pull a Vegas, draft BPA, build a roster, trade the extras. I wonder if the Preds expose one of Duchene or Johansen?

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Kunin over Jarkrok?

It's probably moot anyway since Poile won't follow the board consensus and likely goes Forsberg, Arvy, Johansen, Duchene.

We probably lose Kunin, Jarnkrok, or Sissons.

 

[triggrman]

Easily. Kunin is young and team controlled while Jarnkrok is not. Jarnkrok isn’t good enough of a player to overcome that.

So far Kunin isn’t anything you can’t pick up on the waiver wire

 

[Predsanddead24]

So far Kunin isn’t anything you can’t pick up on the waiver wire

I disagree pretty strongly with that assessment. He’s been fantastic since coming back from injury. I see him as basically a younger version of Jarnkrok in a typical year (although Jarnkrok has obviously been far better this year) with potential to be a consistent 20g-20a guy.

 

[Scoresberg]

With the right linemates, Kunin’s a versatile top-six guy for us down the road. 20g potential, can play wing or center and is only 23 yrs old.

He’s an easy protection over for example Duchene.

 

[Legionnaire11]

Kunin is just 4 points behind Jarnkrok if they played the same number of games. Jarnkrok also has more experience, hasn't dealt with as much injury this season and is more familiar with the players and slightly more familiar with the coach, vs Kunin who came into a new team in the worst off-season in memory.

I don't think either of them are going to make or break a team, but I'd keep Kunin if my focus is 3-5 years down the road. I'd really like a chance to see him in the playoffs before making that decision though, I have a feeling Kunin could make a bigger postseason impact than Jarnkrok has, but there's only one way to find out.

 

[triggrman]

You guys are watching a different Kunin than I am. He has 3 goals the season, and went 19 games without one. He’s horribly inconsistent. Not nearly as good in the defensive zone and is not nearly as versatile.

 

[herzausstein]

Due to age and years of control/contract, you don’t protect Jarnkrok over kunin.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

With the right linemates, Kunin’s a versatile top-six guy for us down the road. 20g potential, can play wing or center and is only 23 yrs old.

He’s an easy protection over for example Duchene.

Not in reality he isn't. Duchene has a higher skill and production ceiling and you don't sign a big-name guy, that publicly wanted to play here, to a big contract and then turn around and expose him to expansion. I'd love to dump Duchene but I think there's zero chance Poile does that.

 

[FossilFndr]

One other benefit of Jarnkrok is that he rarely takes a penalty and I can't ever remember him taking a selfish/stupid penalty.

 

[OldFan]

Preds should expose Joey and Duchene in order to protect someone else. Chances are you don’t lose them and if you do there goes $8M a year. And that’s not bad either.

 

[AdmiralsFan24]

Not in reality he isn't. Duchene has a higher skill and production ceiling and you don't sign a big-name guy, that publicly wanted to play here, to a big contract and then turn around and expose him to expansion. I'd love to dump Duchene but I think there's zero chance Poile does that.

In reality he kind of is because is Seattle going to take the $8 million for 5 year risk that Duchene bounces back? It's possible but seems unlikely. If he wanted to play here and stay here he should've demanded a NMC or, even better, played better so we would want to protect him.

 

[PredsV82]

I doubt that Francis will be as big of a hardass as McPhee was with Poile. McPhee had a score to settle with Poile over Forsberg. I suspect Francis will gladly take a 2nd round pick in order to select whoever Poile wants him to take

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

If I had to do it today, I'd probably expose Duchene and Johansen both. But the fun thing is... we get to see more of the season, and maybe a playoff round before we really need to decide.

Forsberg-Arvy-Kunin
Josi-Ekholm-Fabbro-Ellis
Saros
... those are the "locks" for me. Then I'd watch how things proceed. I don't think we really need to worry at all about the Kraken taking another D from us, so even if Carrier had started to look good, I have no worries about them taking him relative to all the established NHL D they will get to choose from.

Ingram kind of dropped off the list of any potential concerns. Unfortunately/fortunately/whatever... hopefully he is feeling well and can come back for us down the road and re-establish himself, but you have to think he's no longer in any danger of being picked.

So I think that does leave the forwards all vying for the last protection slot. I could see Poile doing a lot of different things, including trading a defenseman in the off-season so he can go 7-3-1. Just because he feels attached to some of those guys and might want desperately to protect both Joey and Duchene. As of today, I'd leave them both exposed. Joey is better and I don't mind him at all, really, but mostly I'm just willing to expose him in the belief that Seattle won't take his contract. It would be more of a calculated gamble that way. Whereas Duchene - unless he looks A LOT different when he comes back, I would actively love it if Seattle took him.

Seattle might take Jarnkrok if they figure he's worth a 2nd round pick to them trading him at the deadline, say, depending on how many other legit NHL forwards they end up with. But they might also rather get a longer term asset for their team. If I was picking for Seattle I'd for sure be looking at guys like Sissons, Trenin, Pitlick before I'd look at Jarnkrok.

But that's where you would really have to know the philosophy of the Seattle team, do the whole draft, figure out how many picks they might use on depth guys, how many on impending UFAs like Jarnkrok they could cash in for a draft pick, how many they could use on younger players with upside, etc. I'd be very comfortable leaving Jarnkrok unprotected. If we like him so much and he likes it here, then even if he does get picked he could just re-sign with us after. Or we could be the team that trades a 2nd to get him at the deadline. Whichever, that's not any significant loss in the Expansion Draft. I'd rather temporarily lose Jarnkrok that way than permanently lose a younger player like Trenin.

 

[nine_inch_fang]

If I had to do it today, I'd probably expose Duchene and Johansen both. But the fun thing is... we get to see more of the season, and maybe a playoff round before we really need to decide.

Forsberg-Arvy-Kunin
Josi-Ekholm-Fabbro-Ellis
Saros
... those are the "locks" for me. Then I'd watch how things proceed. I don't think we really need to worry at all about the Kraken taking another D from us, so even if Carrier had started to look good, I have no worries about them taking him relative to all the established NHL D they will get to choose from.

Ingram kind of dropped off the list of any potential concerns. Unfortunately/fortunately/whatever... hopefully he is feeling well and can come back for us down the road and re-establish himself, but you have to think he's no longer in any danger of being picked.

So I think that does leave the forwards all vying for the last protection slot. I could see Poile doing a lot of different things, including trading a defenseman in the off-season so he can go 7-3-1. Just because he feels attached to some of those guys and might want desperately to protect both Joey and Duchene. As of today, I'd leave them both exposed. Joey is better and I don't mind him at all, really, but mostly I'm just willing to expose him in the belief that Seattle won't take his contract. It would be more of a calculated gamble that way. Whereas Duchene - unless he looks A LOT different when he comes back, I would actively love it if Seattle took him.

Seattle might take Jarnkrok if they figure he's worth a 2nd round pick to them trading him at the deadline, say, depending on how many other legit NHL forwards they end up with. But they might also rather get a longer term asset for their team. If I was picking for Seattle I'd for sure be looking at guys like Sissons, Trenin, Pitlick before I'd look at Jarnkrok.

But that's where you would really have to know the philosophy of the Seattle team, do the whole draft, figure out how many picks they might use on depth guys, how many on impending UFAs like Jarnkrok they could cash in for a draft pick, how many they could use on younger players with upside, etc. I'd be very comfortable leaving Jarnkrok unprotected. If we like him so much and he likes it here, then even if he does get picked he could just re-sign with us after. Or we could be the team that trades a 2nd to get him at the deadline. Whichever, that's not any significant loss in the Expansion Draft. I'd rather temporarily lose Jarnkrok that way than permanently lose a younger player like Trenin.

Holy hell, you've put way too much thought into something that isn't going to happen for months.

Also, why protect Arvidsson at this point?

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

I doubt that Francis will be as big of a hardass as McPhee was with Poile. McPhee had a score to settle with Poile over Forsberg. I suspect Francis will gladly take a 2nd round pick in order to select whoever Poile wants him to take

I don't think it's worth it. Odds are we lose a middle/bottom 6 forward. It might be nicer for it to be one of our preference/choosing, but might as well keep the pick and wish good luck to whoever the choice is. This expansion draft feels like it's going to hurt WAY less than the last one did.

 

[Scoresberg]

If there's a choice between Jarnkrok and Duchene, which one do you think Seattle will take? I'll give you a hint, there's no way in hell they take Duchene.

 

[Armourboy]

I think the rumors of an Ekholm trade was an early indication of what Poile was thinking. I think 7-3-1 is very possible, I just think the Dman looking to be moved may have changed after seeing Ekholm when everyone was injured.

I will not be surprised to see Ellis or Ekholm moved before the draft. I also wouldn't be surprised to see him go 4-4-1 either.

 

[GeauxPreds1]

If there's a choice between Jarnkrok and Duchene, which one do you think Seattle will take? I'll give you a hint, there's no way in hell they take Duchene.

I disagree. Seattle will have to take some higher cap to get to the cap floor. Duchene is still a bigger name in the nhl. Yea his contract isn’t ideal but he’s still a lower 1 or a very good 2. Same with Joey. If they are left exposed one of them will be taken. Seattle is trying to build up a fan base. Taking bottom 6 forwards won’t do that.

 

[Scoresberg]

I disagree. Seattle will have to take some higher cap to get to the cap floor. Duchene is still a bigger name in the nhl. Yea his contract isn’t ideal but he’s still a lower 1 or a very good 2. Same with Joey. If they are left exposed one of them will be taken. Seattle is trying to build up a fan base. Taking bottom 6 forwards won’t do that.

Then that's great for us. We get out of his contract before it comes Turris 2.0 and we get to keep a guy like Jarnkrok who's actually valuable to the team.

Duchene's not the guy you invest $8 mil on and hope he's your guy. If we lose him to Seattle, I will consider it a win.